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We test whether living through conflict in childhood changes political beliefs and engagement. We combine data on the location and intensity of conflicts since 1945 with nationally representative data on political attitudes and behaviors from 17 sub-Saharan African countries. Exposure from ages 0 to 14 has a very small standardized impact on later attitudes and behaviors. This finding is robust to migration and holds across a variety of definitions, specifications, and sources of data. Our results suggest that at the population level in Africa, conflict does not alter political beliefs, though the most exposed sub-populations may experience large, lasting effects.

Mental health disorders are a substantial portion of the global disease burden, yet their determinants are understudied, particularly in developing countries. We find that temperature shocks in utero increase depressive symptoms in adulthood in Africa. A ten percent increase in heat exposure increases our depression indices .05 to .07 standard deviations. We find no evidence that the effects of these shocks are smaller for more recent birth cohorts, nor do shocks predict greater treatment of depressive symptoms. Temperature fluctuations, increasingly frequent due to climate change, worsen the mental health disease burden and health care systems in Africa do not mitigate these impacts.

We examine the effect of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), one of the largest workfare programs in the world, on human capital investment. Since NREGS increases labor demand, it could increase the opportunity cost of schooling, lowering human capital investment even as incomes increase. We exploit the staged rollout of the program across districts for causal identification. Using a household survey of test scores and schooling outcomes for approximately 2.5 million rural children in India, we show that each year of exposure to NREGS decreases school enrollment by 2 percentage points and math scores by 2% of a standard deviation amongst children aged 13-16. In addition, while the impacts of NREGS on human capital are similar for boys and girls, adolescent boys are primarily substituting into market work when they leave school while adolescent girls are substituting into unpaid domestic work. We find mixed results for younger children. We conclude that anti-poverty programs which raise wages could have the unintended effect of lowering human capital investment.

This paper tests for downward nominal wage rigidity in markets for casual daily agricultural labor in a developing country context. I examine wage and employment responses to rainfall shocks—which shift labor demand—in 500 Indian districts from 1956-2008. First, there is asymmetric wage adjustment: nominal wages rise in response to positive shocks but do not fall during droughts. Second, after transitory positive shocks have dissipated, nominal wages do not return to previous levels—they remain high in future years. Third, inflation moderates these eects: when inflation is higher, real wages are more likely to fall during droughts and after transitory positive shocks. Fourth, wage distortions generate employment distortions, creating boom and bust cycles: employment is lower in the year after a transitory positive shock than if the positive shock had not occurred; landless laborers experience a 6% employment reduction. Fifth, consistent with the misallocation of labor across farms, households with smaller landholdings increase labor supply to their own farms when they are rationed out of the external labor market. These findings indicate that wage rigidity lowers employment levels and increases employment volatility—in a setting with few institutional constraints. Data from a new survey I conducted in two Indian states suggests that agricultural workers and employers: view nominal wage cuts as unfair; are considerably less likely to regard real wage cuts as unfair if they are achieved through inflation; and believe that nominal wage cuts cause eort reductions.

As in the case of agricultural cooperatives, collective fields in extended agricultural households act as an insurance device, by redistributing income between household members. At the same time they entail inefficiencies arising from the incentives to free ride on co-workers efforts. Privatization solves the latter problem but comes at a cost of lower risk-sharing (Carter, 1987). The classic analysis of the trade-off between efficiency and risk-sharing rules out another major risk-sharing mechanism, namely voluntary interpersonal transfers. This paper is a first attempt to merge the two insurance mechanisms: collective production, which is plagued by free riding and income transfers, which are hampered by limited commitment. Privatization of land is shown to interact with incentives to abide by the insurance agreement, so that the tradeoff between risk-sharing and production efficiency may or may not be maintained with income transfers. We show that an increase in the value of the household members’ exit option or a decrease in patience decreases the optimal rate of privatization. With the help of numerical simulations we argue that households of greater size are also more likely to privatize land.

Using a unique dataset collected in 59 rural Gambian villages, we study how ethnic heterogeneity is related to the structure of four economic exchange networks: land, labor, inputs and credit. We find that different measures of village-level ethnic fragmentation are mostly uncorrelated with network structure. At a more disaggregated level, household heads belonging to ethnic minorities are not less central than those from the predominant ethnicity in any of the networks and, at the dyadic level, the fact that two households share ethnicity is not an economically significant predictor of link formation. Our results indicate that, in the particular setting of our study, the structure of the exchange networks is better defined by other variables than ethnicity, and that ethnic heterogeneity is unlikely to be a driver for sub-optimal economic exchanges. We argue that our findings can be interpreted in a causal way as the current distribution of ethnic groups in rural Gambia is largely influenced by specific historical features of the British colonial administration. Moreover, the network structure of our data allow us to include fixed effects at different levels as well as to precisely measure kinship ties, a confounding variable often omitted in previous studies.

Uninsured risk constrains households in their production decisions in many developing countries. Similarly to crop insurance, employment guarantees can support farmers in managing agricultural production risks. Evidence from representative panel data of Andhra Pradesh, India, suggests that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) reduces households’ uncertainty about future income streams because it provides employment opportunities in rural areas independently of weather shocks and crop failure. Therewith the NREGS makes an ex-post labor supply response to agricultural shocks more efficient. Households with access to the NREGS are found to shift their production toward riskier but also more profitable crops. The observed shifts in agricultural production do considerably raise the profitability of agricultural production and hence the incomes of smallholder farmers. The findings are not driven by changes in the labor or cost intensity of those crops, which supports the idea that the causal mechanism underlying the observed changes is indeed an insurance effect.

A considerable and increasing share of foreign aid stems from private donations. Hence, individual donors can increase social welfare in developing countries by directing their funds to the most effective NGOs. Surprisingly few studies have analyzed whether private donors care about aid effectiveness when they donate to an international charity. In a laboratory experiment, we investigate if private donors seek information about the exact impact of their donation to an international NGO before they donate. Furthermore, we investigate how relevant private donors find information about aid impact compared to information about administrative costs, and the recipient type who benefits from a donation. First, we find that a relatively small share of individuals makes a well-informed donation decision. Second, the demand for information about aid impact is lowest, and it is highest for information about the recipient type. Third, exact information about aid impact did not lead to a significant change in average donation levels, while information about the exact recipient type and administrative costs led to a significant change in donation levels. In the recipient type group, informed participants donated significantly more than uninformed participants because they “rewarded” the preferred recipient with higher-thanaverage transfers. In the administration costs group, informed participants donated significantly less than uninformed participants because they used the information to “punish” NGOs with high administration costs.

Health outcomes in India vary substantially across regions. Motivated by mounting evidence of the historical persistence of institutions and behavior, this paper studies the historical origins of this health variation. We examine the long-term consequences of the Protestant medical missionary enterprise that spread throughout India in the nineteenth century. Protestant mission medicine sought to place itself within non-European social and institutional milieus, contributing to the diffusion of Western medicine among the local population. We construct a novel fully geocoded dataset that combines contemporary individual-level data with historical information on missionary activities. We document a robust positive association between proximity to a Protestant medical mission and current individuals' health outcomes. Our analysis indicates that this long-run link is not driven by religious conversion or persistence of infrastructure, but possibly by improvements in individuals' health potential and changes in hygiene and health habits.

We empirically investigate the relationship between corruption and growth using a firm-level data set that is unique in scale, covering almost 88,000 firms across 141 economies in 2006-2020, with wide-ranging corruption experiences. The scale and detail of our data allow us to explore the corruption-growth relationship at a very local level, within industries in a relatively narrow geography. We report three empirical regularities. First, firms that make zero informal payments tend to grow slower than bribers. Second, this result is driven by non-bribers in high-corruption countries. Third, among bribers growth is decreasing in the amount of informal payments in both high- and low-corruption countries. We suggest that this set of results may be reconciled with a simple model in which endogenously determined higher bribe rates lead to lower growth, while non-bribers are often excluded entirely from growth opportunities in high-corruption settings.

We apply the set up of limited commitment model to empirically test the role of informal risk-sharing networks using panel data on informal credit transactions from rural Ethiopia. The empirical estimates provide convincing evidence for the belief that enforcement problem limits the direct role of credit transactions in risk-sharing arrangements between rural households, whether the villages are ethnically homogenous or not. We also find that households with more land have better access to the informal credit market and access is significantly improved through their participation in small group networks. But the informal credit market and the networks under consideration serve little purpose to the land poor households.These results, therefore, imply that full risk- sharing does not appear to materialize at the village level.

The evidence that earnings rise with firm size and that human capital affects earnings based on labour market data are two of the most robust empirical findings in economics. In contrast the evidence for scale economies in firm data is very weak. The limited direct evidence of human capital on firm productivity suggests that human capital is indeed productive and that the magnitudes are consistent with the findings based on individual data. The common objection to accepting the role of size and human capital as determinants of either earnings or productivity has been the role of unobserved factors. In this paper we investigate the roles of size and human capital in determining both earnings and productivity using a panel data set of matched labour firm data which allows us to control for such factors. We argue that neither the unobservable quality of labour, nor the unobservable characteristics of the workplace, is the source of the relationship between firm size and earnings, and that this effect can have a rent-sharing interpretation. For our data human capital is of minor importance in explaining either the distribution of earnings or productivity across firms of differing size.

In many rural settings, informal mutual support networks have evolved into semiformal insurance groups, such as funeral societies. Using detailed panel data for six villages in Ethiopia, we can distinguish two types of contracts, in terms of whether payments are only made at the time of death or savings are accumulated by the group based on premiums paid ex-ante. We characterize these contracts as the coalition-proof equilibria of a symmetric and stationary risk-sharing game, and we show numerically that a contract with savings makes higher demands on enforceability, leading to less cohesive groups finding it in their interest to choose the contract without savings and that coalition-proofness is a necessary condition for the coexistence of both contract types. We show in the data that the type of contract chosen by groups is correlated with the level of trust and other enforcement improving factors. We also predict that among the observed contracts, those with group-based savings and ex-ante payments will attain higher welfare in terms of consumption smoothing than those observed using no group savings. Using panel data, and controlling for household fixed effects and time-varying village level fixed effects, we show that funeral groups are vehicles for risk-sharing and that contract type matters for performance in line with these predictions. The results appear robust to endogeneity of group formation and endogenous selection into contract types.

We use survey data to investigate how urban households in Ethiopia coped with the food price shock in 2008 and idiosyncratic shocks. Qualitative data indicate that the high food price inflation was by far the most adverse economic shock between 2004 and 2008, and that a significant proportion of households had to adjust food consumption in response. Regression results indicate that households with low asset levels, and casual workers, were particularly adversely affected by high food prices. In contrast, we find that household demographics and education matter little for the impact of the shock. Our analysis of idiosyncratic shocks indicates that losing one’s job is a serious, uninsurable shock. We interpret the results as pointing to the importance of growth in the formal sector so as to generate more well-paid and stable jobs. Our results also imply that aid programs responding to food price shocks can be made more efficient by targeting low-asset households with members on the fringe of the labor market.

The removal of high levels of protection combined with substantial real devaluations has changed the environment in which Ghanaian manufacturing firms have operated in the 1990s. The changes in output, composition and productivity, which have occurred over this period, are examined in this paper. Survey evidence for the growth of the sector is shown to be consistent with data from sales tax returns. Analysis of the panel survey shows that, in a comparative context, the rate of job creation in Ghana’s manufacturing sector is high. This rate is highest in medium sized firms; small firms have not grown more rapidly than larger firms. There has been no underlying growth in technical efficiency and output growth has been matched by a commensurate growth in labour and capital inputs. Labour productivity differs substantially by firm size due primarily to differences in physical, not human, capital endowments.

In 1984, the world was shocked at the scale of a famine in Ethiopia that caused over half a million deaths, making it one of the worst in recent history. The mortality impacts are clearly signi cant. But what of the survivors? This paper provides the first estimates the long-term impact of the famine twenty years later, on the height of young adults aged 19-22 years who experienced this severe shock as infants during the crisis. An innovative feature of the analysis is that famine intensity is measured at the household level, while impacts are assessed using a di fference-in-di fferences comparison across siblings, and compared with an IV cross-section, using rainfall as an instrument for the shock. We find that by adulthood, a ffected children who were aged of 12-36 months at the peak of the crisis are signi cantly shorter than the older cohort, and their una ffected peers, by at least 5cm. There are no signi ficant e ffects on those in utero during the crisis, and we cannot rule out that for this cohort, the selection e ffect dominates scarring. Indicative calculations show that for the aff ected group such height loss may lead to income losses of around 5% per year over their lifetime. The evidence also suggests that the relief operations at the time made little di fference.

Using micro-level panel data from villages in rural Ethiopia, the paper uses standard decompositions of income changes and develops a new decomposition of poverty changes to analyse the determinants of growth and poverty changes during a period of economic reform (1989-95). Consumption grew and poverty fell substantially, but the experience was mixed. I find that common and idiosyncratic shocks mattered, but that the main factors driving income changes are relative price changes, resulting in changes in the returns to land, labour, human capital and location. A regression-based decomposition of the changes in poverty shows that the poor have benefited on average more from the reforms than the non-poor households. But the experience of the poor is mixed: one group of the poor in 1989, with relatively good land, labour and location, outperformed all other households, while another group with much poorer endowments and location experienced virtually unchanged and persistent poverty.

What is the relationship between entrepreneurial saving practices and reinvestment? We develop a model of entrepreneurial finance and show that entrepreneurial reinvestment decisions depend on the efficiency of saving practices. Utilizing a novel micro & small enterprise survey from Tanzania we test the empirical implications of this theory. We find (1) saving for business purposes and earnings reinvestment are positively related; (2) the practice of saving in a deposit account of a formal financial institution is more likely to facilitate a reinvestment compared to the practice of keeping savings within the household. We also show that the negative impact of saving within-the-household on investment is more pronounced for family members with inherently low intra-household bargaining power - such as females and non-head household members. Our work contributes to the recent debate on the implications of saving instruments in developing countries, and suggests informal saving practices as potential barriers to microenterprise performance.

This paper begins by surveying recent economic studies of the relationships between technology transfer, intellectual property, innovation and diffusion in emerging countries. It applies this literature to the Indian case. India is a potentially useful case study for several reasons. India has recently been experiencing rapid growth and has several high technology sectors staffed by an absolutely large and highly educated middle class. At the same time an even larger share of its very big population is still working in low productivity agriculture and many of these people are living in extreme poverty. To reduce poverty and improve agricultural productivity India will need to create jobs in labour intensive production and distribution sectors to employ its vast army of unskillled workers. The second part of the paper outlines how industry structure and innovative performance have been progressing in India following the economic reforms of the early 90s and the changes to intellectual property law occasioned by the TRIPS agreement and membership of the World Trade Organisation. In the third section the focus turns to recent science, technology and innovation policy in India. A study of the country's potential for innovation by the World Bank in 2007 argued that India must proceed on two fronts. In addition to considering how India's growth prospects can be enhanced by world leading innovations, this volume placed great emphasis on inclusive innovation. This may involve mainly the diffusion and absorption of existing knowledge, but is designed to improve the lot of the poor. The World Bank report proposed a number of new policy directions aimed at speeding up innovation and technology diffusion in India. We attempt to record what changes have been made to innovation policy, foreign direct investment policy and diffusion policy in India in recent years and assess whether these are likely to be effective.

Standard poverty analysis makes statements about deprivation after the veil of uncertainty has been lifted. This implies that there is no meaningful role for risk as part of an assessment of potentially low states of well-being. In this paper, we introduce a concept of vulnerability, as a threat of poverty, with downside risk at its core. More specifically, we define a vulnerability measure as an assessment of the magnitude of the threat of poverty, measured ex-ante, before uncertainty is resolved. We describe the welfare-economic foundations for desirable properties of a vulnerability measure and assess to what extent some measures used in empirical work abide by them. We also present two families of measures that are fully consistent with our axiomatic approach.

Summary This paper investigates the traits of self-employed entrepreneurs in urban China, an economy rife with informational and institutional imperfections, under-developed financial markets, but a growing and important non-state sector. Despite this challenging context, this paper finds that entrepreneurs make on average 20% more than non-entrepreneurs, while being similar in age, marital status, educational attainment, and socio-economic background. Fewer are Communist Party members and more have experienced unemployment, however. Women, Party members, more educated and older workers are less likely to become entrepreneurs. Social networks, motivation and drive, and attitudes toward risk, are all significant factors associated with entrepreneurship.

Previous analyses of the formation and comparison of community based organizations (CBOs) have used cross section data. So, causal inference has been compromised. We obviate this problem by using data from a quai-experiment in which villages were formed by government officials selecting and clustering households. Our findings are as follow: CBO co-memberships are more likely between geographically proximate households and less likely between early and late settlers, members of female headed households are not excluded, in poorer villages CBO co-membership networks are denser and, while wealthier households may have been instrumental in setting up CBOs, poorer households engage shortly afterwards.

Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not effect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. We randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male- and female-owned microenterprises in urban Ghana. Our findings cast doubt on the ability of capital alone to stimulate the growth of female microenterprises. First, while the average treatment effects of the in-kind grants are large and positive for both males and females, the gain in profits is almost zero for women with initial profits below the median, suggesting that capital alone is not enough to grow subsistence enterprises owned by women. Second, for women we strongly reject equality of the cash and in-kind grants;\ud only in-kind grants lead to growth in business profits. The results for men also suggest a lower impact of cash, but differences between cash and in-kind grants are less robust. The difference in the effects of cash and in-kind grants is associated more with a lack of self-control than with external pressure. As a result, the manner in which funding is provided affects microenterprise growth.

Do local populations benefit from resource booms? How strong are market linkages between the mining sector and the regional economy? This paper exploits exogenous variation in mine-level production volumes generated by the recent copper boom in Zambia to shed light on these questions. Using a novel dataset, I find robust evidence that an increase in local copper production improves living standards in the surroundings of the mines even for households not directy employed in the mining sector: a 10% increase in constituency-level copper output is associated with a 2% increase in real household expenditure; positive effects on housing conditions, consumer durable ownership and child health are of similar magnitude. The positive spill-overs extend to the rural hinterland of mining cities, neighboring constituencies, and constituencies to the copper transportation route. Additionally,I identify boom-induced changes in the demand for servics and agricultural products as key channels through which the urban and rural populations benefit from the mine expansions. Since the boom failed to generate fiscal revenues, these effects can be interpreted as the result of the mines' backward linkages. Taken together, these findings highlight the welfare potential of local procurement policies in resource rich developing countries.

Using two surveys from Bangladesh, this paper provides evidence on the effects of microfinance competition on village moneylender interest rates and households'dependence on informal credit. The views among practitioners diverge sharply: proponents claim that competition of microfinance institutions reduces both the moneylender interest rate and households'reliance on informal credit, while the critics argue the opposite. Taking advantage of recent econometric approaches that address selection on unobservables without imposing standard exclusion restrictions, this paper finds that microfinance competition does not reduce moneylender interest rates, thus partially repudiating the proponents. The effects are heterogeneous; there is no perceptible effect at low levels of coverage, but when microfinance coverage is high enough, the moneylender interest rate increases significantly. In contrast, households'dependence on informal credit tends to go down after they become a member of a microfinance institution, which contradicts part of the critic's argument. The evidence is consistent with a model where microfinance institutions draw away better borrowers from the moneylender, and fixed costs are important in informal lending.

We exploit historically determined variation in local credit markets to identify the impact of bank lending on innovation across Russian firms. We find that deeper credit markets increase firms’ use of bank credit, their adoption of new products and technologies, and their productivity growth. This relationship is more pronounced in industries farther from the technological frontier, more exposed to import competition, and that export more. These impacts are also stronger for firms near historical R&D centers or railways and in regions with supportive institutions. Consistent with these results, credit markets contribute to economic growth in such regions.Authors have furnished a data set, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

We investigate the unexplored link between the risk of poverty and happiness in the context of a developing country. Using unique longitudinal data, we estimate workers’ vulnerability to income poverty and find a strong negative relationship between vulnerability and life satisfaction, over and above the positive income effect commonly documented in the literature. The result is robust and cannot be reduced to the effect of two-sided uncertainty. A matched behavioral experiment shows that respondents are significantly loss averse. We conclude that downside risk is an important determinant of happiness and of economic decisions under uncertainty. Policies that mitigate downward risk may thus have direct impacts on both well-being and efficiency.

We use randomized interest rates, offered across eighty geographically distinct regions for twenty-nine months by Mexico’s largest microlender, to sketch the adjustment from a price change to a new equilibrium. Demand is elastic, and more so over the longer run; e.g. the dollars-borrowed elasticity increases from $-$1.1 in Year one to $-$2.9 in Year three. Credit bureau data do not show evidence of crowd-out, although this and other null results are imprecisely estimated. The lender’s profits increase, albeit noisily, starting in Year two. But competitors do not respond by reducing rates. These findings, together with other results, suggest that informational frictions are important, and that cutting rates furthered Compartamos Banco’s “double bottom line” of improving social welfare subject to a profitability constraint.

Randomized controlled trials have found only modest effects of microfinance, but these studies focus on new clients. Existing estimates may thus understate ongoing gains for more experienced borrowers and the longer-run potential of microfinance. We estimate impacts of microfinance on experienced borrowers, using an episode when a microfinance institution modestly increased existing clients’ fees in randomly selected villages (in exchange for a mandatory health insurance policy that turned out to be useless). This increase in fees led to a 22 percentage point decline in loan renewal in treatment villages (95% confidence interval: 16 to 27), compared to control villages where the policy was not introduced. Using this randomly generated variation in microfinance participation among experienced borrowers, we find impacts of microfinance that are strikingly similar to previous estimates for new clients: neither business outcomes nor household consumption were affected, on average. Also, consistent with prior studies, we find significant impacts on business outcomes among clients who had started their businesses before microfinance entered the village (0.06 standard deviation decline in an index of business outcomes from the loss of microfinance, 95% confidence interval: −0.002 to −0.12). However, despite these measured losses, these clients were just as willing to give up microfinance., National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant PO1 HD061315‐04)

More than two dozen developing countries have implemented policies to increase teacher compensation in rural schools. We evaluate the impact of the Gambian hardship allowance, which provides a salary premium of 30–40% to primary school teachers in remote locations, on student performance. A geographic discontinuity in the policy’s implementation provides identifying variation. We find no effects of the hardship allowance on average test scores. However, we find suggestive evidence that student performance improved at the top of the test score distribution and fell at the bottom. Our findings indicate that the substantial, unconditional salary increases earned by Gambian teachers had little to no effect on average student performance, with gains limited to the best students.

This study considers the effects of the kingpin strategy, an approach to fighting organized crime in which law-enforcement efforts focus on capturing the leaders of criminal organizations, on community violence in the context of Mexico's drug war. Newly constructed historical data on drug-trafficking organizations' areas of operation at the municipality level and monthly homicide data allow us to control for a rich set of fixed effects and to leverage variation in the timing of kingpin captures to estimate their effects. This analysis indicates that kingpin captures cause large and sustained increases to the homicide rate in the municipality of capture and smaller but significant effects on other municipalities where the kingpin's organization has a presence, supporting the notion that removing kingpins can have destabilizing effects throughout an organization that are accompanied by escalations in violence. We also find reductions in homicides in municipalities surrounding the municipality where kingpins are captured.

This paper addresses the apparent paradox between widespread support of cattle farming by agricultural policy interventions and negative returns to cattle as stressed in recent works. Using a representative panel dataset for Andhra Pradesh, a state in the south of India, we examine average and marginal returns to cattle. One variant of our identification strategy builds on instrumental variable estimation, where the exposure to the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) is used as an instrument for investment in cattle. We find average returns in the order of -2% at the mean, but they vary across the cattle value distribution between negative 35% (in the lowest quintile) and positive 5% (in the highest). In contrast, marginal returns are positive over the entire distribution and, on average, as high as 13% annually. Both, average and marginal returns vary considerably not only across scale, but also across cattle breed and individual animal value. Our results suggest that cattle farming is associated with sizable non-convexities in the production technology and that substantial economies of scale as well a high upfront expenses of acquiring high productivity animals might trap poorer households in low-productivity asset levels.

In 1994, Bangladesh introduced the Female Secondary School Stipend Program, which made secondary education free for rural girls. This paper examines the long-term effects of the stipend program on education, marriage, fertility and labor market outcomes of women. We find that the stipend increased years of education for eligible girls by 14 to 25 percent. These girls were more likely to get married later and have fewer children. They also had more autonomy in making decisions about household purchases, health care and visiting relatives. They were more likely to work in the formal sector than the agricultural or informal sector. Eligible girls were likely to marry more educated husbands, who had better occupations and were closer in age to their own. Their children’s health outcomes also improved. These results imply that school-based stipend programs can increase female empowerment through positive effects on schooling and marriage market outcomes over the long-term.

The stability of many post-conflict societies rests on the successful reintegration of former soldiers. We use an experimental approach to study reintegration in Northern Uganda and examine behavior of former soldiers together with the behavior of receiving communities towards this group. We focus on trust-based interactions and find that individual trustworthiness increases with the length of time a person was with the Lord's Resistance Army, a rebel group which forcibly recruited a large fraction of young people in the area. The effect is strongest among former soldiers who were abducted during childhood and is mute among those who soldiered during adulthood. These results are consistent with predictions of recent theories that highlight the importance of cooperation during war. Furthermore, members of receiving communities with an abductee son, who thus have better knowledge of former soldiers are aware of the behavioral difference. They believe former soldiers are more trustworthy than their peers and trust them more. Last, we find no evidence of preference-based discrimination, suggesting that anger is attenuated when communities do not attribute responsibility for committed violence to returning soldiers.

Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks’ lending techniques affect credit constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises across emerging Europe. We link the lending techniques that banks use in the direct vicinity of firms to these firms’ credit constraints at two contrasting points of the credit cycle. We show that relationship lending alleviates credit constraints during a cyclical downturn but not during a boom period. The positive impact of relationship lending in a downturn is strongest for smaller and more opaque firms and in regions where the downturn is more severe. Additional evidence suggests that the reduction in credit constraints due to relationship lending helps to mitigate the adverse impact of an economic downturn on local firm growth and does not constitute evergreening of underperforming loans.

Microfinance groups often engage in a variety of collective activities not directly related to credit. We design a three-stage repayment game to examine how the existence of these ancillary activities affect repayment behavior and group attrition. In the first stage, the group borrows under joint liability, each member undertakes a risky project and decides whether or not to contribute to loan repayment. In the second stage, contributing members can vote to expel others from the group. Those remaining engage in a public goods game in the last stage. The public good game represents the non-credit collective activity that members can be involved in. We identify repayment equilibria with and without exclusion and show that exclusionary equilibria are most likely when loans are large and there is significant within-group heterogeneity in the gains from the public good. Results from a laboratory experiment that embodies the main features of the repayment game are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Individual decisions to contribute to loan repayment depend on gains from the public good and groups with the largest debt burdens have the highest rates of default and attrition.

The existing literature on optimal taxation typically assumes there exists a capacity to implement complex tax schemes, which is not necessarily the case for many developing countries. We examine the determinants of optimal redistributive policies in the context of a developing country that can only implement linear tax policies due to administrative reasons. Further, the reduction of poverty is typically the expressed goal of such countries, and this feature is also taken into account in our model. We derive the optimality conditions for linear income taxation,commodity taxation, and public provision of private and public goods for the poverty minimization case, and compare the results to those derived under a general welfarist objective function. We also study the implications of informality on optimal redistributive policies for such countries, and comment on the potential for minimum wage regulation. The exercise reveals non-trivial differences in optimal tax rules under the different assumptions. The derived formulae also capture the sufficient statistics that the governments need to pay attention to when designing poverty alleviation policies.

A by-product of the extension of mass education is the increase in the level of education of those eligible for political offices. This can have a profound impact on the effectiveness of local governments. In this paper, I examine the effects of a large school construction program in Indonesia on local governance and public good provision. The results show that the program led to important increases in the provision of public goods. Furthermore, I provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the increase in the education of the village heads was one of the main mechanisms behind these results. (JEL D72, H41, H75, I21, O15, O17)

This paper shows how, under threat of revolution, a nation's elite are able to maintain political stability and hence ownership of their wealth by creating or expanding a 'pampered bureaucracy.' The elite thus divert part of an otherwise entrepreneurial middle class from more productive manufacturing activities, reducing economic efficiency. If the country has a comparative advantage in primary products, trade integration is potentially destabilizing since it raises the payoff to the lower classes of mounting a revolution and challenging the elite for their wealth. In that case trade integration mandates expansion of the pampered bureaucracy. Therefore, trade integration may actually reduce economic efficiency. The econometric results provide supportive evidence for our model.

Using a unique panel of household businesses for Vietnam, this paper sheds light on the links between households’ and entrepreneurs’ social networks and business performance. We address two related questions. One first question asks if we can find evidence of a differentiated effect of employment of members of the family versus hired workers on the business performance. A second question tackles the respective effects of various dimensions of social networks on the business technical efficiency. The assumption is that, beyond the channel of labour productivity, entrepreneurs that are confronted with an unfavourable social environment may produce less efficiently and realize a lower output than what could be possible with the same amount of resources. We find evidence of a productivity differential between family and hired labour and highlight results consistent with the presence of adverse social network effects faced by households running a business, in particular ethnic minorities. We stress the importance of professional networks for successful entrepreneurship.; En utilisant un panel de microentreprises familiales au Vietnam, cet article met en relation le réseau social des entrepreneurs et de leur ménage avec la performance de la microentreprise familiale. Nous abordons deux questions connexes. La première examine la possibilité d'effets différenciés de l'emploi des membres de la famille par rapport à des travailleurs recrutés sur le marché du travail sur la performance de la microentreprise. Une deuxième question aborde les effets respectifs des différentes dimensions des réseaux sociaux sur l'efficience technique de la microentreprise. L'hypothèse testée est que, au-delà du canal de la productivité du travail, les entrepreneurs qui sont confrontés à un environnement social défavorable pourraient produire moins efficacement et réaliser une valeur ajoutée plus faible que ce qui pourrait être possible avec la même quantité de ressources. Nous montrons qu'il existe en effet un différentiel de productivité entre le travail familial et le travail recruté sur le marché, et nos résultats attestent de la présence d'effets défavorables du réseau social pour certains ménages gérant une microentreprise. Nous soulignons aussi l'importance des réseaux professionnels pour la réussite de l'entreprenariat familial.

We test how donors respond to new information about a charity's effectiveness. Freedom from Hunger implemented a test of its direct marketing solicitations, varying letters by whether they include a discussion of their program's impact as measured by scientific research. The base script, used for both treatment and control, included a standard qualitative story about an individual beneficiary. Adding scientific impact information has no effect on whether someone donates, or how much, in the full sample. However, we find that amongst recent prior donors (those we posit more likely to open the mail and thus notice the treatment), large prior donors increase the likelihood of giving in response to information on aid effectiveness, whereas small prior donors decrease their giving. We motivate the analysis and experiment with a theoretical model that highlights two predictions. First, larger gift amounts, holding education and income constant, is a proxy for altruism giving (as it is associated with giving more to fewer charities) versus warm glow giving (giving less to more charities). Second, those motivated by altruism will respond positively to appeals based on evidence, whereas those motivated by warm glow may respond negatively to appeals based on evidence as it turns off the emotional trigger for giving, or highlights uncertainty in aid effectiveness.

An extensive body of research related to immigrants in a variety of countries has documented a "healthy immigrant effect" (HIE). When immigrants arrive in the host country they are healthier than comparable native populations, but their health status may deteriorate with additional years in the country. HIE is explained through the positive self-selection of the health of immigrants and the positive selection, screening and discrimination applied by the host countries. In this paper we study the health assimilation of immigrants within the context of selection and migration policies. Using SHARE data we are able to compare Israel and Europe that have fundamentally different migration policies. Israel has virtually unrestricted open gates for Jewish people around the world, who in turn have ideological rather than economic considerations to move. European countries have selective policies with regards to the health, education and wealth of migrants, who self-select themselves. Our hypothesis is that the HIE, evidenced in many countries will not be found in Israel. Instead, immigrants to Israel may arrive with lower health than that of natives and improve their health with residence in the country, due to the universal health coverage and generous socio-economic support of the government. Our results provide evidence that a) immigrants to Israel have compromised health and suffer from many health ailments upon arrival, making them less healthy than comparable natives. Their health does not improve for up to twenty years of living in Israel, after which they become similar to natives; b) immigrants to Europe have better health than natives upon arrival and up to eleven years since arrival in the host country, after which they are not significantly different than natives. Our results are important for policy.

A housing lottery in an Indian city provided winning slum dwellers the opportunity to move into improved housing on the city’s periphery. Fourteen years later, relative to lottery losers, winners report improved housing farther from the city center, but no change in family income or human capital. Winners also report increased isolation from family and caste networks and lower access to informal insurance. We observe significant program exit: 34% of winners never moved into the subsidized housing and 32% eventually exited. Our results point to the importance of considering social networks when designing housing programs for the poor.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

This study reports results from a randomized evaluation of a mandatory six-month Internet-based sexual education course implemented across public junior high schools in 21 Colombian cities. Six months after finishing the course, the study finds a 0.4 standard deviation improvement in knowledge, a 0.2 standard deviation improvement in attitudes, and a 55 percent increase in the likelihood of redeeming vouchers for condoms as a result of taking the course. The data provide no evidence of spillovers to control classrooms within treatment schools. However, the analysis provides compelling evidence that treatment effects are enhanced when a larger share of a student's friends also takes the course. The low cost of the online course along with the effectiveness the study documents suggests this technology is a viable alternative for improving sexual education in middle-income countries.

Malnutrition is recognized as a major issue among low-income households in developing countries with long-term implications for economic development. Recently, crop diversification has been recognized as a strategy to improve nutrition and health, and as a risk coping strategy used by farmers in the face of climate change. However, there is no systematic empirical evidence on the role played by crop diversification in improving human health. We use the Tanzania National Panel Survey to investigate whether crop diversification could be considered as a promising agricultural strategy to improve child health in Tanzania. We use fixed effects panel estimation to control for unobserved heterogeneity, and perform several robustness checks including placebo tests to test the validity of our findings. We find a positive and significant effect of crop diversification on long-term child nutritional status, in particular for very young children and children living in households with limited market access.

We provide a new explanation for the stronger relationship between income and subjective well-being (SWB) found in cross-sectional versus panel studies based on the predictions of a rational expectations model of utility maximization with permanent and transitory income shocks. The model predicts that SWB is affected by unanticipated rather than anticipated income, and is more influenced by permanent rather than transitory income shocks. We hypothesize that share of cross-sectional income variation accounted for by permanent income is greater than the share of changes in income over time accounted for by unanticipated shocks to permanent income. We test our predictions using a unique panel dataset from rural China which includes subjective expectations of future income and actual income in each wave, enabling us to separately identify the effects of unanticipated permanent and transitory income shocks. The results confirm the predictions, providing support for the importance of permanent income in explaining SWB.

Many studies have looked at how individual player traits influence individual choice in the repeated prisoner’s dilemma, but few studies have looked at how the average traits of pairs of players influence the average choices of pairs. We consider cognitive ability, patience, risk tolerance, and the Big Five personality measures as predictors of individual and average group choices in a ten-round repeated prisoner’s dilemma. We find that a pair’s average cognitive ability measured by the Raven’s IQ test predicts average cooperation rates robustly and average earnings more modestly. Higher individual cognitive ability also predicts a greater probability of sustaining cooperation in the second round, suggesting that positive reciprocity is more likely among players with higher Raven’s scores. Openness is the only control variable that predicts first-round cooperative behavior.

We provide new evidence on the impact of one severe weather shock on child height in Mongolia. Our focus is on the extremely harsh winter - locally referred to as dzud - of 2009/10, which caused more than 23 percent of the national livestock to perish. This resulted in a food insecurity situation for many Mongolian households. Our analysis identifies causal effects by exploiting exogenous variation in the intensity of the shock across time and space. Results reveal that the shock significantly slowed the growth trajectory of exposed children from herding households. This negative effect is still observable three years after the shock and, hence, likely to persist. Moreover, we explore the role of socioeconomic characteristics and mitigation channels to cushion the impact of the weather shock. Wealthier households and households led by a more experienced head are better able to protect their children from the negative consequences of the 2009/10 winter shock. There are also gender-specific effects, with boys more strongly affected than girls. There is indicative evidence showing that the provision of emergency aid mitigates the negative consequences of the dzud. Moreover, child height has a significant and positive association with households' receipt of informal help. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of shock intensity.

We estimate the effects of changes in cotton adoption on children’s schooling and child labor in rural Burkina Faso. Using time and spatial variations, we find evidence that expansion of cotton farming has led to an increase in enrollment and to a reduction of participation in child labor for girls. There are, however, no detectable effects on boys. In theory, cotton adoption could increase household income, leading to increased demand for schooling and reduced child labor. On the other hand, because children are productive on cotton farms, adoption of cotton could increase the opportunity cost of child time and the demand for child labor. We provide suggestive evidence showing that boys are more productive than girls on cotton farms. Taken together, the results suggest that the income effect from cotton adoption might have been larger than the wage effect for girls, hence the overall positive impacts on school enrollment for girls.

This paper presents empirical evidence that the growth of export manufacturing in Mexico during a period of major trade reforms (the years 1986 to 2000) altered the distribution of education. I use variation in the timing of factory openings across commuting zones to show that school drop-out increased with local expansions in export-manufacturing industries. The magnitudes I find suggest that for every 25 jobs created, one student dropped out of school at grade 9 rather than continuing through to grade 12. These effects are driven by less-skilled export-manufacturing jobs which raised the opportunity cost of schooling for students at the margin. (JEL F14, F16, J24, L60, O14, O19)