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Ekonomilerde fon alışverişine aracılık eden finans sektörü ekonomilerin büyümesinde ve gelişmesinde son derece önemlidir. Bir ülkenin finans sektörü ne kadar gelişmiş ise ekonomideki olası şoklara karşı dayanıklılığı o kadar artar. Katılım bankacılığı, son yirmi yıllık dönemde bankacılık sektörünün gelişmesine ve derinleşmesine büyük katkı sağlamıştır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmanın konusu hem geleneksel bankaların hem de katılım bankalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Bu çalışma, geleneksel bankacılık sektörü ile katılım bankacılığı sektörünün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini karşılaştırmayı amaçladığı için konu iki farklı model çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Oluşturulan modellerde diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak kamu sektörünün etkilerini de görebilmek için kamu harcamaları bağımsız değişken olarak yer almaktadır. Bu yönüyle çalışma, literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan ayrışmaktadır. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ile Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığından elde edilen çeyreklik veriler 2006-2022 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Her iki modelde bağımlı değişken olarak gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla değişkeni kullanılmıştır. Oluşturulan ilk model katılım bankacılığı sektörünün ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerine odaklandığından, bağımsız değişken olarak katılım bankalarının topladığı fonlar ve sağladığı finansmanlar kullanılmıştır. İkinci modelde ise geleneksel finans sektörünün ekonomi üzerindeki etkileri ölçüleceği için bağımsız değişken olarak geleneksel bankaların topladığı mevduatlar ve kullandırdığı krediler kullanılmıştır. Modellerde yer alan değişkenlerin tamamı, fiyat hareketlerinin etkilerinden arındırılarak reel hale getirilmiştir. Ayrıca tüm değişkenler logaritmik formda analizlere dâhil edilmiş olup mevsimsel etkilerden arındırılmıştır. Modellere bağımlı değişkendeki önemli kırılmaları dikkate alarak kukla değişkenler eklenmiştir. Modellerdeki değişkenlerin tanımlayıcı istatistikleri incelendiğinde, değişkenlerin tamamının ortalama ve medyan değerleri oldukça yakın olup normal dağılıma uygun olduğu görülmektedir. Bu sonuç üzerinde değişkenlerin tamamının doğal logaritmalarının alınmasının ve böylece aykırı değerlerin törpülenmesinin etkili olduğu söylenebilir. Ayrıca değişkenlerin tamamı pozitif eğimli olup en yüksek volatilite gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve kamu harcamaları değişkenlerine aittir. Değişkenlerin stokastik eğilim etkileri içermesi sahte regresyona sebebiyet verebileceğinden değişkenlere ilişkin hem geleneksel hem de yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Yapısal kırılmaları dikkate almayan geleneksel birim kök testi, bağımlı değişken olan gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla için çelişkili sonuçlar sunmaktadır. Yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre her iki modelde ortak değişken olarak yer alan kamu harcamaları değişkeni düzeyde durağandır. Benzer şekilde katılım ve geleneksel bankaları tarafından toplanan fonlar düzey seviyede durağanken diğer değişkenler birinci farklarda durağandır. Yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testine göre de değişkenler farklı seviyelerde durağandır. Bu koşullar altında, etkin tahminler sunan ARDL sınır testi yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Katılım bankacılığı sektörünün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini ölçmek için kurulan ilk modelde yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre, modeldeki tüm değişkenler uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmekte olup eş bütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Katılım bankalarının sağladığı finansmanlar ile kamu harcamalarının gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla üzerindeki etkisi pozitifken katılım bankalarının topladığı fonların etkisi negatiftir. Bu sonuç, katılım bankalarınca sağlanan finansmanların iktisadi faaliyetleri olumlu etkileyerek etkin bir şekilde kullanıldığını göstermektedir. Ancak katılım bankaları topladığı fonları etkin kullanamamaktadır. Geleneksel bankaların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmek için kurulan ikinci modelde de değişkenler uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmekte olup eş bütünleşme ilişkisi ortaya çıkmaktadır. Geleneksel bankaların kullandırdığı kredilerin ve kamu harcamalarının gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılaya etkisi pozitifken toplanan mevduatların etkisi negatiftir. Bu sonuçlar, banka kredilerinin ekonomiyi olumlu etkileyecek şekilde kullandırıldığını göstermektedir. Katılım bankalarında olduğu gibi geleneksel bankalar da topladıkları mevduatı iktisadi faaliyetleri olumlu etkileyecek şekilde kullanamamaktadırlar. Ayrıca ilk modelde katılım bankalarının sağladığı fonların gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla üzerindeki etkisini gösteren katsayı, geleneksel banka kredilerinin katsayısından daha büyük olduğu için katılım bankalarının finansmanda geleneksel bankalara göre daha etkin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Her iki modelde de kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, Keynesyen hipotezi destekler niteliktedir.

In this study, the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth was examined within the scope of Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis in Turkey for the period 2006:1-2021:4 via the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Granger causality test. In the study, total, transfer, investment, current, defense, education, health, and social protection expenditures were preferred as proxies of public expenditures. The relationship of each of the variables with economic growth was examined separately. According to the the Engle-Granger cointegration test results, it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and total, current, transfer and social protection expenditures. The Error Correction model findings have shown that both Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis are valid, but they vary according to the type of expenditure. The Granger causality test results have indicated that Keynesian hypothesis could be confirmed only for education and investment expenditures in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, the gradual increase in public expenditures in almost all countries has led to the question of what the size of the public sector should be in the economy. The effects of the size of the public sector on the economy of countries are seen as an important issue. The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between public expenditures and economic growth in newly industrialized countries (NIC) for the 1981-2021 period. and to determine which of Wagner's law and the Keynesian hypothesis is correct. The causal relationship between the variables was analyzed with the Granger and Fourier Granger causality tests. According to the findings, bidirectional causality between public expenditures and economic growth was found for Brazil, South Africa, and Thailand, and unidirectional causality from economic growth to public expenditures for other countries. In general, it has been determined that Wagner's law is valid in newly industrialized countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The variables were transformed into natural logarithms, wherein only the logarithm of public expenditure to output ratio is stationary and the others are non-stationary I 1 . The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner's law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner's law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper analyses the relationship between gross domestic product and public expenditures in nominal terms. The analysis is being done by using the standard Peacock-Wiseman specification of the Wagner’s law and provides the results for the Visegrád Four countries, i.e. the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. We aim to answer a question concerning the existence of a long and/or short-term relationship between the nominal GDP and nominal public expenditures, which consist of current and capital expenditures. To address this question, we employ the VAR model, the Johansen Cointegration test and the VEC model. We study a period between the first quarter of 1999 and the second quarter of 2019 and find out mixed results for the Visegrád Four countries.

Copyright of Journal of International Social Research is the property of Journal of International Social Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Existing literature on the link between government expenditure and economic growth shows mixed results. This paper, while analysing the impact of government expenditure on economic growth using the ARDL framework, also investigates whether the difference in data types is one of the reasons for the conflicting findings reported in the literature about Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis. We use Sri Lanka as a case study for this analysis and use three different forms of model specifications at the aggregate and disaggregated (sectoral) levels. Results indicate that both Wagner's and Keynesian's propositions are supported by the Sri Lankan data in the long-run for all three model specifications and the results are inconclusive in the short-run. This suggests that Wagner's law and Keynesian hypothesis are sensitive to the data type used and the results could be different depending on whether the analysis is made in the short-run or long-run. Capital and recurrent expenditures are found to have a positive effect on economic growth in the short-run as well as long-run. At the disaggregated level, expenditure on agriculture and health positively impact economic growth in the long-run, while welfare expenditure has a negative effect. These findings provide important insights for policymakers to consider when allocating sectoral level expenditure budget. This study also provides insights on allocating government expenditure towards achieving United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals which countries across the globe are aiming to achieve by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between real GDP and government spending for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Linear Granger causality tests in the time and frequency domains provide moderate support for Wagner's law in four countries and weak support for the Keynesian model in two countries. In contrast, asymmetric nonlinear causality tests in the frequency domain support Wagner's law in five countries, while some form of the Keynesian hypothesis is valid in all six GCC countries. Our results illustrate the importance of using nonlinear, asymmetric models to examine causal relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to test Wagner’s law and Keynesian hypothesis in 9 Post‑Soviet countries – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Ukraine. For this purpose, long‑ and short‑run causality between real per capita GDP and real per capita government expenditures are estimated by employing ARDL modelling approach. Estimation results support validity of Wagner’s law for Latvia, Lithuania, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic and Ukraine, and validity of Keynesian hypothesis for Estonia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Moldova in the long‑run. Meanwhile, research findings indicate strong bidirectional short‑run causality in all countries except Lithuania and Kyrgyz Republic in the short‑run.

This study aims examine the role of public spending on economic growth and the validity of Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Turkey for the period 2006-2019. In this context, quarterly time series were used in the study, Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration and error correction model Granger Causality test methods are applied. The findings show that public spending is effective on the real gross domestic product growth and both Wagner Law and Keynesian Hypothesis are valid in Turkey for the period 2006-2019. Phillips-Ouliaris Cointegration test results reveal that public expenditure variables are related to real gross domestic product variables in long-run. Error correction model Granger Causality test results show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between real gross domestic product growth rate variable and real public expenditure variable. In addition, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from real gross domestic product variable to real public expenditure/real gross domestic product ratio variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth produces mixed results from different countries. The objective of this paper is to test if a causal relationship exists between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. the paper relied on testing the applicability of Wagner’s and Keynesian theories on public expenditure and economic growth with data from South Africa. Data on South Africa’s government expenditure and economic growth for 1961 – 2018 were used and the Granger causality Wald test was used to analyse the causality. Neither Wager’s nor Keynesian hypothesis was proven within the limit of the fifty-eight years’ data used. This is because the results show no significant causal relationship from either side of economic growth and public expenditure. Policy makers should pay attention on how to channel government expenditure and the gains from economic growth to improve citizens’ ability to increase their productive capital. Further researchers should expand the time series coverage to go beyond 1961 to check for new results; a regional panel data for Southern Africa is also recommended for further research. This paper produces a new test of Wagner’s and Keynesian hypothesis by merging data from the pre-democratic with the democratic period of South Africa and applied a combination of ADF, co-integration, VAR and Granger Causality analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigated the possible existence of short-term and long-term relationships between government expenditure and economic growth for Sudan by testing the validity of Wagner's law and Keynes's hypothesis for the period 1977-2016. Based on the econometric method and aggregate annual time-series data set used, we concluded that there is no evidence to support either Wagner's law or Keynes's hypothesis. Therefore, the growth of public expenditure in Sudan is not directly dependent on or determined by economic growth, as Wagner's law states. However, it is possible to examine disaggregated data to investigate public expenditure growth in Sudan in terms of Wagner's law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship between real government expenditures and real gross domestic product (GDP) for three countries of the South Caucasus namely, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. The relationship between the variables is essential for policy formation for these countries due to their transition to market economy. There are two main hypotheses related to real government expenditures and growth. The Wagner's hypothesis argues that growth of an economy leads more government spending while the Keynes's hypothesis proposes that government expenditures feed higher economic growth. From policy perspectives, Keynesian view gives a dominant role in government intervention for higher growth while Wagner view gives just a passive role to the government in economic policy. This paper is designed to investigate these hypotheses by using econometric panel techniques. The analysis covers the years 1990-2016. According to our empirical results, there is a mutually positive relationship between real government expenditures and economic growth in the South Caucasus. At the same time, we also find short and long-term bidirectional causality. These results confirm each other and in line with the existing literature. Our study contributes to literature as filling the gap by studying the South Caucasus countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As South Africa deals with the challenges associated with modelling and adopting the appropriate policy for its economic system, the underlying structural and institutional imbalances within the economy have continued to impede the effects of government expenditure on economic growth, thereby misdirecting the focus of the government. This study empirically revisits the validity of Wagner's law in the South African economy, as indicated by previous literature. The cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response function and threshold analysis were used as the estimation techniques, employing quarterly time series data for the period 1970Q1 to 2016Q4. While the cointegration results show the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship, Granger causality findings indicate a bi-directional causality between the two variables, supported by variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The threshold regression lines conform to similar findings. This implies that in reality, Wagner's law does not apply to the South African economy, given other social factors existing in the economy. This study therefore suggests that in order to determine the real direction of causality between the two variables, there needs to be a balance in the allocation of government expenditure, especially for investment purposes, as well as to curtail the huge portion that goes towards consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

While previous studies to test Wagner’s hypothesis for Nigeria usedtotal government expenditure, this paper in addition to total government expenditure used adisaggregated government expenditure data from 1961 - 2007, specifically; expenditure ongeneral administration and that of community and social services to determine the specificgovernment expenditure that economic growth may have significant impact on. Economicconditions and policies change implying that it is not only economic growth that can affectgovernment expenditure hence the inclusion of other fiscal policy variable and politicalfreedom to augment the functional form of Wagner’s law. All the variables used were found tobe I(1) and long run relationship exist between the dependent and the independent variablesexcept in the case where only GDP was used as the independent variable. Wagner’s hypothesisdoes not hold in all the estimations rather Keynesian hypothesis was validated in all theestimation. Elasticity estimates and Granger causality results are in agreement.

Copyright of Economic History Research / Investigaciones de Historia Económica is the property of Asociacion Espanola de Historia Economica and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

While previous studies to test Wagner's hypothesis for Nigeria used total government expenditure, this paper in addition to total government expenditure used a disaggregated government expenditure data from 1961 - 2007, specifically; expenditure on general administration and that of community and social services to determine the specific government expenditure that economic growth may have significant impact on. Economic conditions and policies change implying that it is not only economic growth that can affect government expenditure hence the inclusion of other fiscal policy variable and political freedom to augment the functional form of Wagner's law. All the variables used were found to be I(1) and long run relationship exist between the dependent and the independent variables except in the case where only GDP was used as the independent variable. Wagner's hypothesis does not hold in all the estimations rather Keynesian hypothesis was validated in all the estimation. Elasticity estimates and Granger causality results are in agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]