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2 results on '"land‐use downscaling"'

1. Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4.

Author

Schipper, Aafke M., Hilbers, Jelle P., Meijer, Johan R., Antão, Laura H., Benítez‐López, Ana, de Jonge, Melinda M. J., Leemans, Luuk H., Scheper, Eddy, Alkemade, Rob, Doelman, Jonathan C., Mylius, Sido, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van Zeist, Willem‐Jan, and Huijbregts, Mark A. J.

Subjects
*FRAGMENTED landscapes, *BIODIVERSITY, *GLOBAL environmental change, *CLIMATE change, *AGRICULTURAL productivity, *LAND use, *CLIMATE change prevention
Abstract

Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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2. Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Author

Jonathan C. Doelman, Eddy Scheper, Sido Mylius, Mark A. J. Huijbregts, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Aafke M. Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Melinda M.J. de Jonge, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Rob Alkemade, Jelle P. Hilbers, Laura H. Antão, Luuk H. Leemans, Ana Benítez-López, Johan Meijer, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Research Centre for Ecological Change, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, DIVERSITY, Biodiversity, 01 natural sciences, population abundance, nitrogen, Agricultural land, mean species abundance, 11. Sustainability, Primary Research Article, Land use, land-use change and forestry, biodiversity, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, CLIMATE-CHANGE, fossil, Habitat fragmentation, Ecology, Environmental resource management, article, Agriculture, EXPANSION, LAND-USE CHANGE, environmental change, SCENARIOS, agricultural land, climate change, biodiversity scenarios, Milieusysteemanalyse, 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology, Downscaling, COUNTRIES, IMPACTS, anthropocene, productivity, Climate Change, CONSERVATION, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, tropics, Environmental Chemistry, controlled study, Agricultural productivity, fossil fuel, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, land-use downscaling, nonhuman, Land use, business.industry, global environmental change, PATHWAYS, 15. Life on land, Primary Research Articles, MODEL, Environmental Systems Analysis, Africa south of the Sahara, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, land‐use downscaling, habitat fragmentation, diet, business, Environmental Sciences
Abstract

Schipper, Aafke M. et al., Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures

Published
2020

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