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Background with rationale Traumatic spinal injuries (TSI) include column fractures, spinal cord injury, or both. They are among the most severe injuries with potential long-term physical, psychological, and social consequences. Primary causes of TSIs are falls and motor vehicle crashes, however, mental illness and substance use are known to significantly increase all injury risk. Injury is also known to increase risks of mental deterioration and physical complications including self-harm and self-neglect. Main Aim We aimed to identify comorbid mental illness and/or substance use at incident TSI, quantifying associated costs and health service management of these inequities. Methods NSW record-linkage administrative data analyses (2013-2016) will determine accurate prevalence of mental illness and/or substance use disorder among all patients who sustained acute TSI during the study period. Using recurrent event analyses, we will estimate the contributions of mental illness and/or substance use disorder on the impact on hospital acquired complications (HAC), length of stay and costs; assessing records for social work and/or psychologist consultation. Results 13,489 individuals were hospitalised with acute TSI; 21% had either mental health and/or substance use diagnoses; 8.7% had both. These patients were more likely to have experienced falls or intentional self-harm, be male and have multiple comorbidity. Acute care stay and costs were on average twice that of patients with TSI without mental health and/or substance use diagnoses; additionally they were more than twice as likely to experience HACs. Only 56% of TSI patients with these comorbid conditions in the context of TSI, had documented social work or psychologist consultation. Conclusion Patients with mental illness and/or substance use disorder, experience significant health disparities that require concerted health system attention that should begin early in acute care.

BACKGROUNDPopulation aging proceeds with other socioeconomic developments, including educational expansion. Improvements in educational attainment lead to changes in demographic behaviors such as assortative mating, fertility, and the intergenerational transmission of education, which change the health of the elderly and the education of their offspring generation.OBJECTIVEWe examine such a jointly-changing process in South Korea.METHODSWe apply a recursive demographic model (Mare and Maralani 2006) by using the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA).RESULTSFirst, improvements in education lead to improvements in health among the elderly. Intermediate demographic factors make positive contributions to this improvement. Second, improvements in education lead to a decline in the ratios of offspring to the elderly because better-educated people have fewer children. However, this decrease is not substantial. Third, improvements in education increase the ratio of college-educated offspring to the unhealthy elderly because of improvements in both offspring's education and elderly health.CONCLUSIONThe results suggest that improvements in education change configurations of the elderly and their offspring's generations, mitigating the negative consequences of population aging, such as increasing burdens of elderly support.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. Introduction: Alternative ways to measure population agingPopulation aging is a worldwide phenomenon, with the median age of the world population forecast to rise to 38.1 years in 2050 from 26.7 years in 2000 (Goldstein 2009). Population aging has important socioeconomic consequences because the age structure of a population determines the ratio of net producers to net consumers in a population. Hence, most industrialized countries are concerned about negative consequences of population aging and have attempted to develop pronatal policies that balance the population's age structure (Kalwij 2010; McDonald 2002). Population aging, however, also occurs in tandem with other socioeconomic changes such as educational expansion and improvements in health, which may mitigate the consequences of rising dependency ratios. Skirbekk, Loichinger, and Weber (2012) proposed a new measure of population aging-the cognition-adjusted dependency ratio (CADR)-and showed that the ranking for degree of population aging depends upon the measures: whereas India has fewer elderly people per working-aging individual than the U.S., the U.S. has fewer cognitively-limited elderly people per working-age individual than India. There is also evidence that increasing human capital per capita may offset the loss of total economic product due to fertility decline in a population level (Lee and Mason 2010) and the cost of supporting an elderly population may be reduced as the health of the elderly has continued to improve over decades (Martin, Schoeni, and Andreski 2010). In other words, -population aging is intrinsic to the processes that bring us a highly-educated population and comfortable standards of living" (Lee and Mason 2010: 179). In this study, we examine changing joint configuration of the elderly and their offspring in terms of health and educational attainment by applying a demographic model.Accounting for the changing configurations of the elderly and the offspring generation is important in population aging. This has been largely overlooked, however, in previous research. Earlier studies found that the better-educated enjoy better health and survival chances in later life than do the less educated (e.g., Cutler and Lleras- Muney 2008; Elo and Preston 1996). Based on this positive educational gradient in health and survival chances, recent studies have used educational attainment in projecting the size of the elderly population in the future (Batljan, Lagergren, and Thorslund 2009; Batljan and Thorslund 2009; Joung et al. …

This article sets out to describe the individual mobility of persons affected by the war in former Yugoslavia from a long-term, biographical perspective. It evaluates how the conflict and post-conflict conditions limit or enhance the spatial range of individual activities. The time-geographical approach is applied through the usage of spatio-temporal records of the war and post-war life. Thirty-two respondents from Bosnia and Herzegovina were interviewed, and asked to generate an “ex-post facto” open time-space activity diary. The article demonstrates the usefulness of the time-space activity diary usage as a significant instrument for a sensible analysis of life-paths.

The aim of this article is to discuss regional impacts of high-speed railways on transportation accessibility. It investigates the potential changes in the transportation accessibility of Czech municipalities due to the planned construction of high-speed rail lines in Czechia. It considers two currently discussed variants of the high-speed rail line between Prague and Brno. We discuss the model of potential transportation accessibility and discuss its usability in the preparation and construction of high-speed rail line structures, and how it would affect the optimal route selection. We also present different methods of accessibility analyses in GIS applied to the case of Czechia and their presentation through map outputs.

This article examines the factors and process of change in the land use and land cover change-induced landscape dynamics in the Durgapur Sub-Division region of West Bengal in 1989, 2003, and 2018 by employing the satellite imageries of Landsat 5 (1989 and 2003) and Landsat 8 (2018). The images of the study area were categorized into seven specific land use classes with the help of Google Earth Pro. Based on the supervised classification methodology, the change detection analysis identified a significant increase in built-up land from 11% to 23% between 1989 and 2003 and from 23% to 29% in 2003 and 2018. The areas under fallow land and vegetation cover have mainly decreased, while the areas of industrial activities and urbanization expanded during the study period.

Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall in a short period of time is one of the worst environmental hazards, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Watershed prioritisation identifies and ranks the different watersheds in a catchment based on multiple parameters, which play a role in the land and water degradation. This article deals with the prioritization of 24 sub-catchments in the Jarahi-Zohre catchment in southwest Iran by applying the mixed multivariate linear model of TOPSIS. Morphometric parameters, such as the constant of channel maintenance, drainage density, ruggedness number, infiltration index, stream power index, stream frequency, slope, drainage texture rate, relief rate, form factor, bifurcation ratio, as well as the topographic wetness index, were used as TOPSIS input data, along with precipitation information. The results obtained from the weighting analysis show that ruggedness number, slope and rainfall information have the largest impact on flood events. The sub-catchments Seidyon, Emamzadeh Jafar, and Takht Deraza have a high flood risk and should be given the highest priority for soil and water conservation measures. To validate the results, the prioritization scheme was compared to the flood events in recent years.

El suicidio es la manifestación más extrema de necesidades de atención de salud mental y la importancia de reducir su ocurrencia ha sido subrayada por los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible. La pandemia de COVID-19 podría incrementar la mortalidad por suicidio debido a sus efectos negativos sobre las condiciones de vida. Este trabajo analiza la mortalidad por suicidio en hombres jóvenes, adultos y adultos mayores en ocho países de Latinoamérica y el Caribe entre 2005 y 2015. Se estiman tasas de mortalidad anuales para cinco grupos etarios distinguidos por etapas de vida. Los resultados muestran diferencias por países entre los patrones de edad y la trayectoria de esta causa de mortalidad. Uruguay manifiesta los niveles más altos de suicidio junto con Cuba para los adultos mayores. Hallazgos como los que este estudio y otros similares proveen respecto a la tendencia del suicidio en la región de Latinoamérica y el Caribe o los países que la integran, podrían servir de punto de referencia para valorar el impacto de la pandemia de SARS-CoV-2 para esta problemática de la salud mental.

This article investigates the changes in water quality in the Mastník bay, a part of the Slapy Reservoir located at the Vltava River, during the 2015–2019 period. Due to the occurrence of drought conditions smaller streams in rural areas of Czechia have suffered from a low water quality, especially in the summer. For these reasons, the Mastník stream contributes to the abnormal eutrophication of the Mastník bay. Since the exchange of water between the bay and the rest of the Slapy reservoir has been limited, a large increase in the phytoplankton biomass has been observed in the Mastník bay. Consequently, the concentrations of chlorophyll in the Mastník bay increased over the last 15 years, with the chlorophyll-α concentration exceeding 500 μg I−1 during the summer months in several cases. Based on the concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll and water transparency measured by this study, the Mastník bay is evaluated as being hypertrophic. In contrast, no significant effect of the Mastník bay on the concentrations of the monitored parameters has been demonstrated in the remaining parts of the Slapy Reservoir.

The aim of this article is to measure the effectiveness of public administration by comparing long-term budget expenditures with goals specified in strategic documents of four cities from less developed regions in Czechia. The content analysis of strategic documents of these cities was carried out over the past 10 years. Next, the budget expenditure during the 2002–2017 period was analyzed and compared with goals specified in strategic plans of these cities. The results show the under-funding of the majority of the planned development goals.

Migration and residential segregation are intrinsically linked. However, little attention has been given to internal migration and its relationship with socioeconomic segregation. In this study, we illustrate the pathways individuals take between rural and urban settings and examine the association between these pathways and segregation in the Helsinki region. We use register data from Statistics Finland and sequence analysis to illustrate the mobility patterns of two 1980s birth cohorts aged 7 to 37. The majority of Finnish rural-urban pathways are associated with either a childhood spent in an urban area or a move to an urban area in young adulthood. We show that an even larger majority of people living in Helsinki at age 37 spent their childhood there or in other urban environments. We find that internal migrants are positively selected for education and income. A childhood in the outer urban regions of a city reduces the probability of living in lowincome neighbourhoods when controlling for socioeconomic status and family structure. We found no association between rural childhood and living in poor neighbourhoods.

Pre- and post-migration related factors are likely to influence integration outcomes of migrants. This study aimed to investigate which pre-migration factors (basic education and potentially traumatic experiences) and post-migration wellbeing factors (quality of life and loneliness) are associated with integration outcomes (employment status, language skills, voting, media use, having host country’s native friends, participation inleisure activities) of migrant background men and women. The Finnish Migrant Health and Wellbeing Study (Maamu) was used, including working-aged adults of Russian, Somali, and Kurdish origin. Each integration outcome was analysed by each predictive factor with logistic regression, separately for the three groups and separately for men and women. The integration outcomes were somewhat differently associated with pre- and post-migration factors in the different groups. All these aspects are important to be taken into account in integration discourse to promote both integration and social wellbeing.

In this article, we carry out the cost-analysis of the total premature mortality and avoidable causes of death for Moldova by applying the human capital approach. The results show that the indirect costs of avoidable mortality represent slightly over 85% of total economic losses due to premature mortality in Moldova. The highest economic losses are due to injuries, cardiovascular diseases, and alcohol and drug-related deaths. For males, the leading cause is represented by injuries, whereas for females the two leading causes include cardiovascular diseases and alcohol and drug-related deaths. The results of this study can be used for a cost-benefit analysis to design economic mitigation strategies aimed at lowering the avoidable mortality in Moldova.

This paper studies the effect in the Italian case of geographical mobility on employment and occupational attainment, defined as access to the upper class, avoidance of the working class, and avoidance of agricultural jobs. It observes the distribution of its effect over the life course. Given that migration is a gendered phenomenon, we perform separate analyses by gender. Our data set, moreover, includes residential information at the municipality level, making it possible to specify geographical mobility in different ways, according to the distance, the characteristics of origin, and destination and the frequency of individual movements. Third, it studies whether the effects of geographical mobility change according to social class of origin and geographical area of origin.Our analyses, based on linear probability panel models with fixed effects, show a strong gender divide concerning the probability of employment and avoidance of the working class. A positive effect of geographical mobility on occupational outcomes appears to exist only as regards men, because for women the divergence between movers and stayers appears well before geographical mobility. Finally, the effects of geographical mobility are generally stronger for individuals originating from the middle and lower classes and from rural areas, but they are not so strong as to enable those individuals to substantially change their position in the occupational hierarchy.

Background: The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. Objective: We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Methods: Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Results: Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: in Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Conclusions: Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Contribution: Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates.

El envejecimiento demográfico en México es un fenómeno cada vez más creciente. A la par se incrementan, sin ser una generalidad, las demandas de cuidado para atender a esta población. Históricamente este rol ha sido asignado a las mujeres, aspecto que está relacionado con las desigualdades de género en la actualidad. Las mujeres que realizan cuidados para la vejez lo hacen a partir de distintas motivaciones: el reconocimiento de una necesidad, la responsabilización, o la prestación y recepción de los trabajos de cuidado. Todas ellas derivadas de las formas y contextos en que se desarrollan los vínculos familiares y afectivos. En este artículo se muestran, a través de relatos de mujeres cuidadoras, las motivaciones para asumir el rol y el proceso que atraviesan durante su práctica de cuidado. También se incorpora el tema de los derechos de las personas mayores desde el ámbito jurídico para reflexionar sobre la necesidad de incluir esta cuestión en las políticas públicas de nuestro país.

La experiencia migratoria puede impactar las condiciones de salud de las personas migrantes, ya sea durante su desplazamiento, su estancia en el país de destino o cuándo retornan a su lugar de origen. En este sentido, el objetivo de este artículo es ofrecer una revisión y una reflexión en torno a la vulnerabilidad de la población migrante mexicana ante la pandemia del COVID-19. Para tal propósito utilizamos información de registros administrativos de salud además de encuestas sociodemográficas e información hemerográfica. Los resultados indican que los mexicanos radicados en Estados Unidos y aquellos que son deportados por las autoridades migratorias de ese país constituyen una población altamente vulnerable ante el SARS-CoV-2, debido a su condición de migrantes irregulares, así como a otros aspectos vinculados con su perfil sociodemográfico, epidemiológico y laboral.

This article compares mining and post-mining landscapes on old maps and in modern aviation photography of three regions around the towns of Jachymov, Most and Kladno in Czechia. The three regions differ not only in the type of mining, but also in their historical development and current management. The goal of the article is to compare these regions and evaluate the changes and consequences of mining on the landscape in different time periods using cartographic sources. Another aim is to identify specific landscape elements related to mining by drawing on old maps and state map series of the three regions.

This text is aimed at the consideraton of differences related to fertility of urban and non-urban settlements in Serbia, from the point of view of differentiation concerning education and gender roles. The discussion framework consists of the results of relevant empirical researches that consider gender equality, as well as the presented data about level of education for both types of settlements. In terms of fertility, we used census data and presented two indicators. These are the cumulative live birth rates and the shares of women who have not given birth. The focus is on the generations born in the second half of the 20th century, observing the cohorts that are in the reproductive period, as well as those that came out. Differences between urban and non-urban settlements are not only observed for Serbia as a whole, but are also placed within the framework of statical regional areas. The decline in cumulative fertility, the postponement of parenthood and the shares of women without children both in the optimal reproductive period and in the cohorts at the end of reproductive period are more pronounced in the urban population. However, these tendencies also have existed in non-urban settlements, despite the fact that the observed fertility indicators do not reflect the difficulty of regulating low fertility in this type of settlement. Very low cumulative fertility rates in the urban settlements are the result of insufficient adjustment of the institutional framework to emancipatory processes in the sphere of gender roles. The negative effects of traditional patriarchy in non-urban settlements are more visible through some other demographic indicators that are closely related to the issue of low fertility. Hence, the importance of the gender aspect cannot be neglected when it comes to non-urban settlements.

This article employs the quantitative research of residential satisfaction in two localities in Prague with different civic amenities. The results show that the presence of civic amenities in the neighbourhood has a significant effect on residential satisfaction, which is comparable to the importance of the quality of housing and the perceived quality of the neighbourhood. The relationship between the presence of civic amenities and residential satisfaction is affected by differences in the perceived importance of amenities between the residents of housing estates and suburbs, and by the position of households in the household life cycle.

This article deals with the creation of maps that depict the development of selected villages in Czechia in the 19th and 20th centuries. These maps are used for the artistic and historical research of rural architecture, which focuses on the type and detail of the surveyed buildings in the selected time period. Its results can be interpreted in a wider cultural context of the respective rural region. The maps of the development of rural architecture were created on the basis of a detailed analysis of available archival maps. The article describes the practical experience with the creation of these maps, contains an overview and description of available archive maps and the procedure of their processing using geographic information system (GIS) tools. The interactive presentation of the created maps on the Internet is also discussed.

Age waves is theoretical concept that take into account the importance of disordered cohort flows, mainly as by-product of demographic transition (fluctuating fertility and improved survival), but also external factors (especially wars). The primary age wave as a consequence of high births after the Second World War in Serbia did not remain an isolated phenomenon, but created a secondary cohort wave although the fertility indicators were declining, which is visible as the thickening of the pyramid base in 1981 due to the absolute increase in births. Cohort "tide" has influenced the shape of the pyramid to longer retain the properties of the stationary type because the baby boom generation reproduced the "echo" generation, which is a counterbalance to extreme demographic aging as the baby boom generation entered the contingent of the old population. A cohort analysis of the elderly population shows that the declining share of the elderly in a certain age group is typical for cohorts born during turbulent times, most often wars, while cohorts born afterwards form more numerous generations. A half-century characteristic of the Serbian population is an absolute increase of people older than 65, but it does not automatically mean an adequate increase in the relative share of the elderly because it depends on the number of other age groups and their cohort trajectories. The methodological tool that can valorize heterogeneity of the old population is important for societies with past oscillations in fertility and migratory movements. In this study, the usefulness of the arithmetic and geometric coefficients of aging was tested on the example of baby boom and baby bust generations and their position in the old population, revealing periods when rejuvenation or aging of the old has dominated. Kohortno talasanje je teorijski koncept koji uvažava značaj neregularnih kohortnih tokova kao nusprodukta demografske tranzicije (fluktuirajući fertilitet i produženo očekivano trajanje života), ali i eksternih faktora (posebno ratovi). Primarni "starosni talas" kao posledica visokog rađanja nakon Drugog svetskog rata nije ostao izolovan fenomen, već je generisao sekundarno kohortno talasanje što potvrđuje i zadebljanje baze piramide 1981. godine nastalo zbog apsolutnog povećanja rođenih. Kohortno talasanje je uticalo da oblik piramide duže zadrži svojstva stacionarnog tipa jer je bebi bum generacija reprodukovala "eho" generaciju, koja je predstavlja protivtežu ekstremnom demografskom starenju pošto je bebi bum generacija ušla u kontingnet starijih od 65 godina. Analiza starog stanovništva pokazuje da opadanje udela starih u određenoj starosnoj grupi po pravilu znači da je TA kohorta rođena tokom vremene turbulentnih vremena, najčešće ratova, dok oni rođeni posle ratova formiraju brojnije generacije. Ali treba naglasiti da apsolutni porast starijih od 65 godina, što je poluvekovna karakteristika stanovništva Srbije, ne znači i automatski adekvatan porast relativnog udela starijih jer on zavisi od broja ostalih starosnih grupa, ali i od kohortnih trajektorija. Novo metodološko rešenje dopušta da se valorizuje heterogenost starog stanovništva i čini se vrlo praktičnim u društvima u kojima je dolazilo do velikih oscilacija fertiliteta i izrazitih migratornih kretanja. U ovom istraživaju je testirana korisnost koeficijenta oštrine i dubine starenja na primeru krnjih i kompenzacionih generacija i njihovoj poziciji u starom stanovništvu, otkrivajući periode kada je dominiralo podmlađivanje starog stanovništva, odnosno kada je nastupalo izraženije starenje starih.

This article focuses on geographical urbanonyms in Ukraine – names of streets, squares, lanes, etc. that refer to the names of other geographical objects like cities, regions, countries, or continents. It shows the role of geographical urbanonyms as a powerful instrument used by political regimes to shape political identity by constructing and legitimizing borders between “us” and “them” at different spatial scales. The analysis revealed a significantly higher presence of geographical urbanonyms in Ukraine compared to former state socialist countries in Central Europe. The widespread presence of street names related to the former USSR proves the absence of post-Soviet decolonization in semiotic space, going beyond the pure decommunization, in the majority of Ukrainian cities since 1991. Regional differences in the dynamics, distribution and structure of geographical urbanonyms in Ukraine are explained by the historical, cultural and (geo)political divisions.

There is a dearth of literature on the use of machine learning models to predict important under-five mortality risks in Ethiopia. In this study, we showed spatial variations of under-five mortality and used machine learning models to predict its important sociodemographic determinants in Ethiopia. The study data were drawn from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. We used three machine learning models such as random forests, logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbors as well as one traditional logistic regression model to predict under-five mortality determinants. For each machine learning model, measures of model accuracy and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of each model. The descriptive results show that there are considerable regional variations in under-five mortality rates in Ethiopia. The under-five mortality prediction ability was found to be between 46.3 and 67.2% for the models considered, with the random forest model (67.2%) showing the best performance. The best predictive model shows that household size, time to the source of water, breastfeeding status, number of births in the preceding 5 years, sex of a child, birth intervals, antenatal care, birth order, type of water source, and mother’s body mass index play an important role in under-five mortality levels in Ethiopia. The random forest machine learning model produces a better predictive power for estimating under-five mortality risk factors and may help to improve policy decision-making in this regard. Childhood survival chances can be improved considerably by using these important factors to inform relevant policies.

This article presents results of the research focused on reading assignments in geography teaching. The approaches of Czech geogra-phy teachers to reading assignments are explored by using the method of grounded theory. Altogether 22 teachers from secondary school participated in the research. The typology of teacher approaches and the identification of factors that influence the teacher’s inclusion of reading assignments in the disciplines was developed. The teachers’ attitudes show that their preferences in the gen-eral notion of (not only) geography are reflected, and that the constructs of their beliefs or personal theory play an important role. These factors can take on both supportive and limiting forms, depending on the context that is shown in the article with the aid of a paradigmatic model. The results are situated in relation to the teacher’s professional learning.

This contribution presents a brief overview of investigation and monitoring methods which may help to detect and localise deep-seated rock slides in the surroundings of reservoirs. The identification and localisation of critical slopes and ancient/pre-ex-isting rock slides in the early stage of a project (i.e. feasibility study) is essential to avoid endangering the planned infrastructure project and if necessary, adapting the project. The knowledge about deep-seated rock slides has increased over the decades. In particular, new insight was gained about rock slide geometry, kinematics, temporal deformation behaviour, hydrogeology and geomechanics. Major technical and methodical improvements have been made in recent years concerning the successful appli-cation of terrestrial and airborne based remote sensing tools to measure 2D/3D slope deformations on surface and to develop high-resolution digital terrain models for detailed geomorphological-geological mapping and geological-geometrical model desig.

This study examines downstream grain-size trends in gravel bars, a typical feature of natural gravel-bed rivers, from two neighbouring heavily channelized rivers: the Lubina River and the Ondřejnice River draining the Czech part of the Outer Western Carpathians. It aims to examine the effects of the grade control structures, significant tributaries, and lateral sediment inputs on the downstream fining trends. Additionally, the relationship between the channel width and the grain sizes in bars was analysed, as well as the depositional trends in frontal, central and distal parts of the examined gravel bars. The Ondřejnice River has, in most cases, higher D50 and median values of grain size of bar sediment and a higher downstream reduction coefficient (D50 = 0.033 mm km−1; D84 = 0.036 mm km−1) than the Lubina River (D50 = 0.026 mm km−1; D84 = 0.032 mm km−1). These intense reduction trends in the grain size are often observed in single and multiple-threaded rivers in the Western Carpathians. On both rivers, the predominant deposition of the highest D50 was detected in the central parts of the bars, and the wider channel widths often corresponded with finer sediment deposition in the Lubina River. The disruption of the downstream fining corresponded in some cases with the frequent grade control structures. However, in most cases, the downstream fining trends were not affected. A tributary and adjacent hillslope area could be possibly linked to the disruption of the downstream fining trend in the Ondřejnice River.

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the starting events marking the transition to adulthood, such as completion of education (vocational and higher), first employment, first separation from parents, first partnership, first marriage, and first childbirth. The dataset of the research is the Russian part of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). We prepared a harmonised dataset of the three waves (2004, 2007, and 2011), which included 5,451 respondents born between 1930 and 1986. We used two complementary approaches to study the transition to adulthood: the analysis of the starting sociodemographic events separately and the analysis of all of them as a part of one process. We depicted the results of the analysis on a demographic Lexis grid, which allowed us to observe the influence of the historical and institutional context on people’s behaviour. The research revealed three models of transition to adulthood in Russia: “Soviet” (generations of 1940-49, 1950-59, and 1960-69), “Transitional” (generations of 1930-39 and 1970-79), and “Post-Soviet” (the generation of 1980-86). Our classification is similar to the idea of the convergence of the patterns of the starting events’ occurrence which assumes a change from the “traditional” model (“early, contracted and simple”) to the “modern” model (“late, protracted and complex”). The similarity of the changes in Russian and European models confirms the stadiality of the modernisation process. The study also confirms the assumption of the Life Course Approach about the individualisation of the life course.

This paper examines astrology, a concept that is considered unscientific by broad segments of the population in the western world. Despite this, astrology remains for some an important source for advice regarding choices in a range of different matters, including career and relationships. The continuing popularity of astrology may at least partly be linked to an insufficient body of empirical research that has been able to test hypotheses formulated by astrological theory, both due to a lack of data beyond very small study populations as well as astrological predictions frequently being vague and thereby difficult to test. This article examines how differences in astrological favorability influence partner choice in marriage as well as the divorce risk among married couples using longitudinal individual-level data from Sweden over the period 1968-2001. The results fail to provide any consistent evidence to support the notion that astrologically more compatible couples are either overrepresented among observed marital unions or associated with a lower risk of divorce.

This article summarizes the results of the research focused on the realization of the cross-curricular subject Environmental Educa-tion (CCSEE) at elementary schools (pupils’ age 6–15 years) in Czechia. The introduction of cross-curricular subjects into the Czech educational system is linked to curricular reform and it has been implemented in Czech schools since 2007. CCSEE is one of the six currently implemented cross-curricular topics. The main objective of the present study is to determine which school subjects are involved in its implementation. The study was conducted through an internet questionnaire and responses were received from 640 schools. Data were processed by basic statistical methods. A school typology depending on the subjects involved in implementing EE was developed with the help of cluster analysis. The research shows that EE is implemented through most subjects, but their representation varies considerably for individual schools.

In 2016, the crude death rate from road traffic accidents in Russia decreased, according to police data, to a level not observed since 1971, after which it continued to decline. The positive trends apparently served as the basis for the optimistic goals laid down in the Road Safety Strategy for 2018-2024. Based on police data, vital statistics on mortality and international databases on mortality and road safety, the authors try to answer these questions: Are the goals set achievable within the specified timeframe, and how consistent are they with European trends in road traffic mortality, as well as with Russia's present differentiation of road traffic mortality by space, age and category of road users? The study showed that the deadlines for achieving targets in the Road Safety Strategy are very tight. Today, only large and medium-sized cities have the potential to implement a new Road Safety Strategy in which the crude death rate should not exceed 1.5-2 deaths per 100 thousand people by 2024, whereas in small cities and rural settlements - 2.5-3 deaths per 100 thousand people. For many years, the main risk groups have been drivers and passengers aged 15-44 and pedestrians over 60 years old, who do not appear in the Road Safety Strategy as priority categories. In addition, the article shows that in order to eliminate the existing discrepancies between the numbers of deaths published by the two official reporting systems (the police and Rosstat), the very first step might be for Rosstat to stop calculating the number of road traffic deaths based on the current version of the abridged classification of causes of death and transition to one of the two international approaches for aggregating three-digit codes of causes of death used by the WHO.

The paper addresses, mostly with demographic tools, the rationale and consequences of the reform of Russia’s distributive pension system. Contrary to official assertions, mortality conditions do not warrant an increase of the pension age. The reference to a rapidly falling demographic support ratio as a rationale of the reform’s urgency is misleading. A rapid and large increase in the retirement age will considerably reduce the obligations of the Pension Fund of Russia, yet this will be far from enough to balance its budget. The reform creates a fundamentally new and difficult to implement task of ensuring the right to employment of persons deprived of the right to a pension. To the extent that this task can be accomplished, the Pension Fund of Russia and the State budget will be supplemented with additional revenues. At the same time, to the extent that this task remains unresolved, a social group of elderly people who are deprived of income will arise and continue to grow. For a limited time their life will be supported by unemployment benefits. Russia possesses large-scale alternative resources for resolving the pension problem, which consist, among other things, in increasing the collection of pension contributions, labor productivity and employment of the population, as well as in developing funded forms of pension insurance.

The paper investigates the geographical features of demographic ageing using the age of retirement as the main definition for the old age boundary. The study is based on demographic statistics of Rosstat and the UN Population Division. The possible interdependence between population ageing and the implementation of social policies in the field of pension regulation is studied. The hypothesis about the relationship between low levels and a high pace of population ageing for countries of the world and regions of the Russian Federation was tested. A cartographic and statistical analysis of spatial data at the level of regions and municipalities made it possible to identify and describe the main geographical factors of population ageing differentiation. The ‘ethnic’ subjects of the Russian Federation, as well as the Northern regions of new development (autonomous okrugs), where a minimum proportion of the elderly of retirement age is observed, are growing older the most rapidly. At the same time, the echo of social сrises that took place during the 20th century still plays a significant part in the pace of ageing. However, over the course of this century its influence will increasingly weaken. At the local level, ethnic and rural-urban differentiation is becoming a less significant factor of population ageing in comparison with migration: the working-age population continues to concentrate in the largest urbanised areas. The main territories of the “young” population concentration are the administrative centres of Russia’s regions and areas with a high proportion of non-Russian ethnic groups with a high total fertility rate (TFR), as well as some other ‘azonic’ municipalities.

We study the intersection of international migration and sexual preference from a socio-demographic perspective by looking at same-sex couples among migrants in Germany. Despite increasing ethnic diversity and greater social and legal liberality toward non-normative living arrangements, there are hardly any available quantitative data on this vulnerable group, which crosses two social boundaries. Drawing on the scientific-use file of the German Microcensus (2013), we estimate the prevalence of same-sex couples among female and male migrants, and describe their socio-demographic characteristics. We use different approaches to imputing data to account for the possibility that the reported information on same-sex relationships may be missing or wrong, and consider different definitions of “migrant status”. Our results show that the share of couples who were same-sex was smaller among the immigrant (0.2 to 1.4%) than among the native population (0.6 to 2.0%). Moreover, migrants in a same-sex couple were more similar in terms of other socio-demographic variables (age, education) to natives in a same-sex union than to migrants in an opposite-sex union. This study contributes to the LGBT social science literature by providing the first quantitative description of this minority-in-a minority group in Germany.

The paper deals with the relation between traditional family norms and women’s age at first marriage. The study is based on data from Karachay-Cherkessia, a republic of the North Caucasus (Russia), and uses results of a survey among women of reproductive ages conducted there in 2018. It has been demonstrated that traditional family norms, including those empowering elder generations and limiting women’s social role to housework and bringing up children, are rather strong in that region. It is currently assumed that these norms generally correlate with women’s younger age at first marriage. However, our analysis of the data from Karachay-Cherkessia, which used proportional hazard models and logistic regressions, does not fit this assumption. Specifically, it turns out that precisely that ethnic group of Karachay-Cherkessia which shows a higher concentration of traditional family norms also demonstrates a statistically significant tendency towards women’s older age at first marriage. Thus the relation between traditional family norms and the timing of marriage appears to vary more across different societies than is supposed. The consequences of this result for the study of demographic transformations taking place in different countries and regions together with the breakdown of traditional family norms are discussed.

Smoking is an important factor of preventable mortality in Russia. According to the author’s calculations, based on international estimates of the relative risks of mortality for smokers and Russian data on smoking prevalence, self-assessment of health and mortality by causes of death, in 2017 the life expectancy of smokers was 5.2-5.3 years lower than that of non-smokers, while healthy life expectancy was 2.6-3.2 years lower. Since 2005, smoking-related standardized mortality rates have been steadily declining, generally repeating the changes in mortality from all causes in Russia during this period. However, the aggregated data conceal significant gender differences – the main decrease in smoking-related mortality was observed among men. The smoking epidemic among men started earlier and is now at a more mature stage (decline) than among women (stagnation or even growth for some groups). From 2004 to 2017, the life expectancy of women smokers increased significantly more (by more than a year and a half) than for non-smokers, although for men such a trend is not observed. The decomposition of differences in life expectancy between smokers and non-smokers shows that the advantage in life expectancy of non-smoking women mainly decreased in the age range from 50 to 69 years, mainly as a result of changes in mortality from cardiovascular diseases. For men, a similar reduction of the advantage in life expectancy of non-smokers compared to smokers occurred at younger ages, from 40 to 64 years. At older ages, non-smokers compensate for their lag in the increase of life expectancy; however, since for women this trend is observed later and on a smaller scale, life expectancy of women smokers in the study period grows faster.

From our evolutionary past, humans inherited a long period of child dependency, extensive intergenerational transfers to children, cooperative breeding, and social sharing of food. Older people continued to transfer a surplus to the young. After the agricultural revolution, population densities grew making land and residences valuable assets controlled by older people, leading to their reduced labor supply which made them net consumers. In some East Asian societies today, elders are supported by adult children but in most societies the elderly continue to make private net transfers to their children out of asset income or public pensions. Growing public intergenerational transfers have crowded out private transfers. In some high-income countries, the direction of intergenerational flows has reversed from downward to upwards, from young to old. Nonetheless, net private transfers remain strongly downward, from older to younger, everywhere in the world. For many but not all countries, projected population aging will bring fiscal instability unless there are major program reforms. However, in many countries population aging will reduce the net cost to adults of private transfers to children, partially offsetting the increased net costs to working age adults for public transfers to the elderly.

The knowledge of actual evapotranspiration at farm level is a prerequisite for irrigation planning, farm management, to increase production and reduce water consumption. To accomplish this, comprehensive and accurate assessment methods should be applied. In order to evaluate accurately evapotranspiration processes we compared lysimeter evapotranspiration data with MODIS (Aqua and Terra satellites) and LANDSAT (SEBAL algorithm) satellite images as well as with the FAO Penman-Montith method. The findings indicate the low error rate, high correlation (1) and appropriateness of SEBAL in estimating actual evapotranspiration. The error values MAD, MSE and RMSE between lysimeter and the SEBAL algorithm were 0.59, 0.36 and 0.60 respectively. The second best performance was established for the FAO Penman-Montith method. The obtained error values MAD, MSE and RMSE between the lysimeter and FAO-Penman-Montith method are 0.91, 1.29 and 1.13, respectively.

Рецензия на книгу Сергея Максудова «Победа над деревней. Демографические потери коллективизации». Книга представляет собой существенный вклад в изучение истории коллективизации в СССР и ее последствий и – шире – истории СССР 20-х – 30-х годов прошлого века. Для читателя-демографа особенно важно, что в центре внимания автора книги находится «демографический срез» общей истории страны и дана оценка сопряженных с коллективизацией демографических потерь. Книга С. Максудова – важное событие в российской демографии и будет интересна не только специалистам-демографам, историкам и статистикам, но и всем, кто дорожит исторической памятью о коллективизации.

A critical analysis of A. Omran’s theory of epidemiologic transition (ET) and of its various interpretations. The periodization of ET proposed by Omran is called into question, and the differentiation of the two "epidemiological revolutions" by M. Terris is compared with it. The paramount historical importance of ET as a trigger and an integral part of the demographic transition as a whole is noted. Disagreement with the interpretation of ET as an integral part of the “health transition” is substantiated. The concept of the "cardiovascular revolution" is contested. A method of graphical representation of ET is proposed and the criteria for its completion are discussed. Disagreement with ideas about the "first", Neolithic, and "third”, expected in the future, ET, as well as about a "reverse" ET is substantiated. Problems with “catching up” ET in the less developed countries are considered.

Many more cases of supercentenarians are observed in the French Départements d’Outre-Mer (DOM) than in metropolitan France. A first possible explanation is that the standard French protocol for validating age does not sufficiently cover DOMs. However, if additional checks can confirm the verity of this phenomenon, forming explanatory hypotheses can be relevant and quite interesting. Thanks to an INED research funding, a special protocol of deep age checking has been established to be applied to the two DOMs where the phenomenon is the most pronounced: Guadeloupe and Martinique. First results not only show that combining several additional checks does not leave much room for further doubting the ages of supercentenarians but they also support some arguments in favor of a possible fundamental explanation: genetic selection due to the extreme severity of mortality inflicted on their slave ancestors.

Based on the 2003–2019 electoral data, this article evaluates the level of pro-Europeanness in Czechia and Slovakia at the regional and sub-regional levels during and after their EU accession period. The TOPSIS multi-criteria evaluation method and cluster analysis were used to quantify the pro-European levels and to create the subsequent categories of territorial units. The results show sup- port for the ideas of European integration primarily in large urban regions (Prague, Brno, Bratislava, Košice), territorial units with a higher concentration of ethnic minorities, larger scale agricultural activities (southwestern Slovakia), and a high degree of religiosity (northeastern Slovakia). The low level of pro-Europeanness was predominant in the less developed north-estern Czechia and parts of Moravia. In Slovakia, the Eurosceptic regions were mostly located in the northwest, where the values of statism, egalitarianism and nationalism have a strong tradition. This approach can be used to identify areas of weak support for the EU project at a spatially disaggregated level in other EU countries.

A common explanation for the high fertility prevailing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a widespread desire for large families. This situation poses a challenge to population policy-makers in the continent. If the desired family size is high, then presumably family planning programs can only have a limited effect on fertility because these programs aim to assist women in achieving their reproductive goals. But this conclusion is based on the assumption that family planning programs do not affect the desired family size, which is questionable and is investigated here. This study examines the determinants of trends wanted and unwanted fertility in SSA using fixed-effects regressions of country-level data. The dependent variables include the total fertility rate, and its wanted and unwanted components. Explanatory variables include a family planning program score and four socioeconomic variables (women’s educational attainment, child mortality, GNI per capita, and percent urban). Data come from 103 DHS surveys in 25 countries in SSA with at least two DHS surveys between 1989 and 2019. Women’s education and family planning programs are found to be the dominant determinants of fertility decline and their effects operate by reducing both wanted and unwanted fertility. The effects of education are not surprising but the finding that family planning programs can reduce wanted fertility implies that their impact can be larger than conventional wisdom suggests. Indeed, in a few poor countries, the implementation of high-quality programs has been associated with substantial declines in wanted fertility (e.g., Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda). The mechanism through which this effect operates is unclear but likely involves media programs that diffuse knowledge about the benefits of smaller families.

Введение карантинных мер в связи с пандемией коронавируса сопровождалось перекрытием трансграничных коммуникаций и ограничением деятельности предприятий в большинстве отраслей экономики. Трудовые мигранты и члены их семей, пребывающие на территории России, оказались в сложном положении. Сокращение занятости в первую очередь в тех сферах, где работают мигранты, сделало иностранных граждан одной из наиболее уязвимых социальных групп. Первый пласт вопросов, рассматриваемых в статье, связан с оценкой ситуации, в которой оказались мигранты, находящиеся в России. В каких видах экономической активности сокращение занятости стало особенно болезненным для мигрантов? Каково их материальное положение? Насколько они готовы покинуть Россию в случае восстановления транспортных коммуникаций? Каковы их ближайшие и отдаленные планы, связанные с трудовой деятельностью и жизнью в России? Во втором фокусе исследования находятся потенциальные мигранты, которые не смогли въехать в Россию после разрыва международных транспортных связей. Каково их экономическое положение на родине? Как быстро они собираются выехать в Россию в случае снятия ограничений на международные поездки? Каковы их краткосрочные и долгосрочные планы, связанные с пребыванием в России? Поиску ответов на эти вопросы посвящена настоящая статья, базирующаяся на онлайн-опросе 2695 иностранных граждан (в том числе 1304 мигрантов, находящихся на территории России, и 1391 – за ее пределами), а также телефонном опросе 300 трудовых мигрантов в Московском мегаполисе, проведенных в первой половине июня 2020 г.

There is rising attention in Italy and Europe to the occurrence, consequences, and factors related to sexual violence. The focus on women as the primary victims of sexual violence has, however, left data collection and research on young men and sexual minorities in the background. Moreover, young people’s experiences of sexual abuse in the context of their relationships with peers are hardly recognised as a policy concern. The ultimate aim of this paper is to disentangle intersectionalities between gender, migration background, sexual orientation, and sexual experience in shaping the risk of experiencing sexual violence among university students in Italy.We use data from the Sexual and Emotional LiFe of Youths (SELFY) survey carried out in Italy in 2017. Our data confirm that women and foreign-born students are at higher risk of sexual violence. Our data also support previous evidence that bisexual women are at a higher risk of sexual violence victimisation compared with peer students with other sexual orientations. Previous same-sex sexual experience is more relevant than sexual orientation in shaping the risk. The effect is gendered: the risk of sexual violence is lower for women with previous same-sex sexual experience compared with their male peers. The intersection between gender, sexual orientation, and same-sex sexual experience generate specific high-risk profiles whose needs should be targeted by support services.

В связи с растущей популярностью сети Интернет в России представляется важным выяснить, как частота его использования сказывается на состоянии здоровья людей и самосохранительном поведении. В настоящей работе мы тестируем оптимистичные гипотезы, согласно которым, при прочих равных условиях, относительно частое использование Интернета соответствует лучшему состоянию здоровья и меньшему потреблению алкогольной и табачной продукции. Опираясь на данные последних трех волн (2014, 2016, 2018 г.) Комплексного обследования условий жизни населения (КОУЖ), мы строим модели бинарного пробита с использованием инструментальных переменных для определения влияния Интернета на здоровье и тобит-модели в первых разностях для оценки его влияния на объёмы потребления алкогольной и табачной продукции. Первая группа моделей демонстрирует значимое положительное влияние Интернета на состояние здоровья для обоих полов. В остальных моделях гипотезы анализа подтверждаются частично: с повышением частоты пользования Интернетом мужчины меньше курят и пьют, больше предпочитают слабоалкогольные напитки, но на женской выборке результат не подтверждает гипотезу позитивного влияния Интернета на снижение потребления табака и алкоголя. Мы полагаем, что объяснение такого результата лежит в области качества данных, а также стадии эмансипации женщин в России. Кроме того, Интернет не является для женщин заменителем «водочного» досуга в отличие от мужчин. Исходя из вышеизложенного, мы можем сформулировать общий вывод, что для сохранения и укрепления здоровья жителей России следует расширять возможности использования Интернета.

В статье произведена оценка вклада миграции в изменение численности и возрастной структуры населения различных типов муниципальных образований Республики Башкортостан. Среди таких типов выделены ядра (промышленные и образовательные центры, притягивающие человеческий капитал), тяготеющие к ядрам муниципалитеты, численность населения которых растет за счет влияния ядер (пригородные территории), а также периферийные районы, миграция из которых в пределы Уфимской и Южно-Башкортостанской агломераций носит безвозвратный характер. На первом этапе выполнен ретроспективный прогноз для представителей трех выделенных типов муниципальных образований на период 2008-2018 гг. Согласно его результатам наибольший выигрыш миграция принесла не ядрам, а тяготеющим к ним пригородным муниципальным образованиям, что отразилось в приросте численности их населения практически во всех возрастных группах, но прежде всего населения предпенсионного и пенсионного возраста. На втором этапе проведено сценарное прогнозирование численности населения муниципальных образований на период до 2029 г. Выделены четыре сценария развития миграционной ситуации. Результаты прогнозирования указывают на то, что прирост численности населения ядер агломераций и их пригородных территорий возможен только за счет продолжения миграционного притока, который, однако, не окажет значительного влияния на возрастную структуру. В то же время периферийные муниципальные районы, продолжая терять население, значительно «постареют». Таким образом, развитие ядер и пригородных территорий тесно сопряжено с потерей демографического потенциала отдающими население периферийными территориями. В результате в среднесрочной перспективе в Республике Башкортостан ожидается замедление прироста численности населения центров агломераций.

The article is concerned with the analysis of various conceptual approaches to family and population policy since the formation in the 19th century of the theoretical foundations of the State's impact on the population. Historically, family policy grew out of population policy, and at the same time is a late developed part of social policy. This might explain the large number of contradictions in its ideology in different countries. The article considers the evolution of approaches to family policy in Europe and the United States, with an emphasis on development in the last decades of the 20th and the first decades of the 21st century (fertility and economic development, children's and women's education, reproductive rights, the well-being of various age and gender groups of the population, work-life balance, the reaction to a drop in the birth rate below the level of simple reproduction, the ethical perception by the population of the “imposition” of fertility standards on people, etc.). Various typologies of family policy systems based on different foundations in developed countries are examined; the diversity in this area indicates a lack of consensus and convergence, while none of the national policy systems can be called unequivocally efficient. An important dimension for determining the ideology of family policy at the present time is whether it is addressed to an individual (and to which individual) or to the family as a community (and to which particular form / forms of the family), and how each specific concept resolves the issue of the family’s interaction with the State. Using the example of the United States, it is shown how the idea that it is better not to interfere in family matters gradually changed, so that there appeared not only individual policies to help families, but also a desire to change legislation accordingly. Now, there are more and more countries where family policy is likely to follow social changes, instead of trying to channel them in a predetermined direction.

Высокий в сравнении со странами Запада уровень смертности и значительные пространственные различия в ожидаемой продолжительности жизни – серьезные вызовы, стоящие перед Россией. Решение задач повышения продолжительности жизни и улучшения здоровья россиян, в том числе за счет уменьшения неравенства в смертности как между субъектами РФ, так и на внутрирегиональном уровне, тесным образом переплетаются с целями пространственного развития России, направленными на сокращение межрегиональных различий в уровне и качестве жизни людей. В статье представлена оценка различий в смертности между «центром» и «периферией» регионов и динамика этих различий в 67 регионах России, в которых проживает три четверти населения страны. Период исследования – 2003-2018 гг. – характеризуется устойчивым ростом ожидаемой продолжительности жизни при рождении в России. Используя данные Росстата по городам, мы оценили ожидаемую продолжительность жизни при рождении для 67 региональных центров и для остальной территории регионов («периферии»). В зависимости от величины различий и динамики их изменений были выделены 6 типов регионов (I-VI). Для регионов, в которых наблюдается наибольший центр-периферийный разрыв в ожидаемой продолжительности жизни, применен метод декомпозиции, позволивший определить ключевые возрастные группы и причины смерти, ответственные за столь высокие различия. В 36 регионах России, отнесенных к I-III типам, центр-периферийный разрыв превышал среднероссийский уровень, при этом лишь в 6 из них в 2003-2018 гг. отмечалась тенденция к сокращению разрыва. Анализ результатов декомпозиции различий в продолжительности жизни для первых трех типов регионов показал, что у мужчин отставание периферии от центров обусловлено различиями в смертности в трудоспособном возрасте от внешних причин смерти, особенно от ДТП, убийств и самоубийств, а также от «алкогольных» причин смерти, у женщин – различиями в смертности в пожилом возрасте от хронических неинфекционных заболеваний. Несмотря на, казалось бы, «объективный» характер центр-периферийных различий в уровне смертности в России (преимущество центров в продолжительности жизни в первую очередь зависит от социально-демографических характеристик жителей, образовательной структуры населения, а также селективной миграции, направленной из периферии в центры), положительный опыт других стран показывает, что эффективная политика в области общественного здоровья может значительно сократить размах пространственного неравенства в уровне смертности даже при сохранении существенной гетерогенности в уровне социально-экономического развития территорий.

Background: Paternal incarceration is a well-known risk factor for poor child outcomes. Although existing research documents the prevalence of paternal incarceration and racial/ethnic disparities in this risk, research in this area is still sorely limited in two ways. First, the range of groups for which we know the cumulative risk of paternal incarceration is still quite narrow. Second, no research has decomposed disparities in the risk of paternal incarceration into analytically distinct components. Objective: To estimate and explain ethnic disparities in paternal incarceration risk in Denmark. Methods: We use Danish administrative data and two core demographic techniques. First, we use birth cohort life tables to estimate country of origin-specific paternal incarceration risks for native Danes, Western descendants of immigrants, and ten groups of non-Western descendants of immigrants. Second, we conduct Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions to see how three factors - paternal employment, education, and previous criminal justice contact - shape these risks. Results: We find that descendants of immigrants are much more likely to experience paternal incarceration than native Danes, but that there is substantial heterogeneity across country of origin. Additionally, we find that for most countries the observed disparities in paternal incarceration risk can be almost entirely explained by group differences in paternal employment, education, and previous criminal justice contact. Contribution: By using two core demographic techniques we provide insight into how future research on paternal incarceration and other risk factors for poor child well-being could better estimate and explain the risk of experiencing these events.

Background: Research indicates that both full- and half-siblingships develop enduring social relationships, if the siblings have the opportunity to interact during childhood and adolescence. Objective: To estimate: (1) how much time half- and full-siblings are exposed to each other during childhood and adolescence; (2) how half-sibling exposure is conditional on birth spacing and residency; and (3) how parents' social vulnerability is associated with different levels of lifetime exposure to half-siblings. Methods: Swedish register data is used to calculate exposure to half-siblings based on birth spacing and registered residency for all full- and half-siblings in the 1994 birth cohort. Results: A substantive share of half-siblings are less exposed to each other due to lengthy birth spacing and residency patterns. By age 18, 26Š of the birth cohort have had a half-sibling who is also no older than 18 for at least one year; 13Š of the birth cohort have had a half-sibling who is no older than 18 for up to 10 years; 8Š of the birth cohort have been registered in the same dwelling as another half-sibling for eight years or more. Parents' social vulnerability does not predict exposure to halfsiblings among the population that has at least one half-sibling by age 18. Conclusions: Even though half-siblings constitute a large share of all siblings, full-siblings will likely make up the vast majority of the siblingship-like relationships because so many halfsiblings are unable to interact during childhood or adolescence due to extensive age differences and/or because they do not coreside. Contribution: This study quantifies the role of birth spacing and residency patterns for the exposure to full and half siblings across childhood. It highlights the benefits of including a population perspective for understanding full and half sibling social relationships.