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Global actions are required to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and thus mitigate global warming. On the 4th of November 2016 the Paris agreement between 196 countries entered into force which aims to limit global warming to less than 2 °C. Methane (CH4) has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime (≈10 years) which makes it an effective mitigation target to slow down global warming on the short to medium term. The CH4 mitigations can be implemented faster and have less severe economic effects than reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions because CO2 emission is directly proportional to energy consumption. Despite the attractiveness of CH4 reduction, on the longer term also CO2 emission will need to be reduced to zero around the middle of this century to reach the goals of the Paris agreement. Among all the CH4 sources, emission mitigation in the energy sectors seems to be the most time efficient and cost effective compared to emission reduction from other sectors. CH4 emissions from the energy sector, particularly from production, storage, transportation, distribution and end-use of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) contribute 19% to total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in Europe. This contribution can increase to more than 60% in fossil fuel producing countries. Fossil fuel related emission have been identified as an interesting target within the CH4 reduction strategy of the EU. The emissions from these activities are mainly estimated using Emission Factors (EFs) and Activity Data (AD) in inventories. The EFs are the ratio of emission rate per activity unit, e.g. kg of CH4 emitted per amount of gas produced. The EFs are tabulated in reports from national or international agencies, and standard EFs for emission reporting have been tabulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the EFs can vary temporally and spatially which increases the uncertainty in the estimated emissions. To reduce the uncertainty, independent measurement campaigns are required to update or verify these EFs, some of which are outdated or are possibly affected by sampling and / or emission rate biases. Detailed information is required on where and how large the emissions are, for effective mitigation policies. This thesis was carried out within the MEMO2 (MEthane goes MObile, MEasurements and MOdelling) project, with the objective to use mobile measurement techniques to improve our understanding of CH4 emissions. The main focus was on emissions in the energy sector. In this thesis, we provide detailed results from detection, quantification and attribution of CH4 emissions from extensive measurement campaigns focusing on emissions from the gas distribution networks in cities. These measurements showed that the contribution of CH4 emissions from natural gas leaks, microbial or combustion sources are different from one city to another, thus dedicated emission mitigation policies are required for different cities.

Global actions are required to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and thus mitigate global warming. On the 4th of November 2016 the Paris agreement between 196 countries entered into force which aims to limit global warming to less than 2 °C. Methane (CH4) has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime (≈10 years) which makes it an effective mitigation target to slow down global warming on the short to medium term. The CH4 mitigations can be implemented faster and have less severe economic effects than reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions because CO2 emission is directly proportional to energy consumption. Despite the attractiveness of CH4 reduction, on the longer term also CO2 emission will need to be reduced to zero around the middle of this century to reach the goals of the Paris agreement. Among all the CH4 sources, emission mitigation in the energy sectors seems to be the most time efficient and cost effective compared to emission reduction from other sectors. CH4 emissions from the energy sector, particularly from production, storage, transportation, distribution and end-use of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) contribute 19% to total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in Europe. This contribution can increase to more than 60% in fossil fuel producing countries. Fossil fuel related emission have been identified as an interesting target within the CH4 reduction strategy of the EU. The emissions from these activities are mainly estimated using Emission Factors (EFs) and Activity Data (AD) in inventories. The EFs are the ratio of emission rate per activity unit, e.g. kg of CH4 emitted per amount of gas produced. The EFs are tabulated in reports from national or international agencies, and standard EFs for emission reporting have been tabulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the EFs can vary temporally and spatially which increases the uncertainty in the estimated emissions. To reduce the uncertainty, independent measurement campaigns are required to update or verify these EFs, some of which are outdated or are possibly affected by sampling and / or emission rate biases. Detailed information is required on where and how large the emissions are, for effective mitigation policies. This thesis was carried out within the MEMO2 (MEthane goes MObile, MEasurements and MOdelling) project, with the objective to use mobile measurement techniques to improve our understanding of CH4 emissions. The main focus was on emissions in the energy sector. In this thesis, we provide detailed results from detection, quantification and attribution of CH4 emissions from extensive measurement campaigns focusing on emissions from the gas distribution networks in cities. These measurements showed that the contribution of CH4 emissions from natural gas leaks, microbial or combustion sources are different from one city to another, thus dedicated emission mitigation policies are required for different cities.

Anthropogenic and climate-related stressors challenge the health of nearly every part of the global oceans. They affect the capacity of oceans to regulate global weather and climate, as well as ocean productivity and food services, and result in the loss or degradation of marine habitats and biodiversity. Moreover, they have a negative impact on maritime economic sectors and on the social welfare of dependent coastal populations. In order to overcome the deficiencies of traditional single-sector management, in the recent decades several scientific approaches emerged, based on the view of marine systems as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), i.e. systems where components interact in non-linear, path dependent ways, with lock-in and feedback loop mechanisms, and unpredictable effects also across scales. These approaches have been introduced into the texts of several international agreements related to marine CAS, and related management practices, with contrasting results in relation to effectiveness and integration of governance. This thesis evaluates for the first time the current international and European legal frameworks from the perspective of marine CAS. To accomplish this objective, four research objectives are formulated: (1) Develop a framework for marine CAS assessment and management; (2) Evaluate the entire European Union (EU) legal framework against the framework developed; (3) Evaluate the international legal framework for the assessment and management of the global oceans against the framework developed; and (4) Evaluate the implementation of the EU and global legal frameworks into practice. Chapter 2 develops a framework for marine CAS, based on the combination of two promising theoretical approaches: Adaptive Management (AM) and Transition Management (TM). The framework is based on the idea that AM and TM have the potential to overcome each other’s limitations, which are related to the insufficient attention to micro-level socio-economic components, and to the limited incorporation of environmental aspects into socio-technical assessments, respectively. More into detail, the proposed framework is articulated into three components. First, the two sets of marine social-ecological systems and connected socio-technical systems (e.g. fisheries, maritime transportation, coastal tourism and energy) must be clearly identified, and the complex interactions and influences between socio-economic patterns of production and consumption, and ecological components must be assessed. Second, the achievement of ecological resilience of a marine social-ecological system should be performed in coordination with transitions of unsustainable connected socio-technical systems. This implies that sustainability should be evaluated in relation to the pressures socio-technical systems generate on the ecological resilience of connected social-ecological systems, and related impacts. Third, the implementation of the two approaches should be articulated into iterative, learning- and science-based policy cycles, with mechanisms to foster coordination between the policy cycles of social-ecological and socio-technical systems. The benefits of this framework are threefold. First, the assessment of the two sets of social-ecological and socio-technical systems, taken together, allows to overcome current AM limitations and include micro-level socio-economic components into the assessment of ecological resilience. Second, by linking AM managers with established transition arenas, it is possible to overcome TM limitations and streamline the consideration of ecological aspects into the TM process. Third, by linking AM and TM policy cycles, it is possible to reduce the current legal and policy fragmentation. Chapters 3 and 4 apply the framework proposed in Chapter 2 to evaluate the EU and global legal frameworks for the assessment and management of marine CAS. Chapter 3 presents the first comprehensive review ever realised of the entire EU legal framework, composed of more than 12,000 EU legal acts, from the perspective of marine CAS assessment and management. It concludes that the EU legislation does not provide a fully coherent framework for the assessment and management of EU marine CAS. Although the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD; 2008/56/EC) is a major step towards this purpose, the present research highlights three major limitations: (1) the limited capacity of the MSFD to support the coordination between Member States sharing the same marine region or sub-region; (2) the insufficient characterisation of marine ecological resilience, in particular in relation to socio-economic elements, ecosystem services, human benefits and cross-scale interactions; and (3) the limited capacity of the MSFD to tackle the fragmentation of the EU legal framework and integrate ecological resilience into the objectives of sector-based laws and policies. Chapter 4 reviews 500 multilateral agreements, evaluated for the first time from the perspective of marine CAS. It shows that there is no international agreement aiming at the ecological resilience of the global oceans social-ecological system. Instead, the international legal framework is fragmented along two dimensions. On the one side, global agreements focus on specific objectives for determined socio-economic activities, ecological features or anthropogenic pressures. On the other side, regional agreements are in place for 18 ocean regions of the world, with a varying level of inclusion of elements of marine CAS assessment and management. The need is highlighted for a reformed global ocean governance framework, which should be based on a bio-geographical approach to the ecological resilience of the global oceans, and build on iteration, learning, and science-based advice to policy and management. Chapter 5 evaluates the implementation of the EU and global legal frameworks into the practice of assessment and management of a case-study area, the Adriatic Sea. It shows the importance of the MSFD as the first policy trying to deliver a CAS approach to marine assessment and management. However, the case-study investigation confirms the three limitations of the MSFD, laying in: 1) an insufficient geographical approach, where implementation is driven at national level and the requirement of cross-border cooperation is weak; 2) the vagueness of legal requirements, and the limited capacity to include socio-economic aspects into the required assessment; and 3) an insufficient capacity to coordinate with other laws, policies and programmes at various levels of governance. Based on the identified limitations, suggestions are advanced on how to strengthen the implementation of the MSFD, both at Adriatic and EU level. These suggestions are further advanced in Chapter 6, which includes detailed proposals on how to foster integrated large-scale marine monitoring in the EU, in order to contribute to the implementation of the MSFD in an efficient and effective way, also in relation to costs. Chapter 7 synthesizes the major findings of this thesis and evaluates the capacity of the framework to deliver a CAS approach to marine systems. It concludes that AM and TM, although holding different visions on sustainability and referring to different principles, have the potential to be put in synergy at the practical level. Further scientific research and management practices should focus on the need for AM and TM to overcome the relative isolation and foster synergies across sector-based management, in order to integrate environmental considerations into economic sectors. Suggestions are advanced to improve legal frameworks and policy practices at the global and EU level. They focus on the need: (i) to fill the gaps in the geographical scope of legal texts and to foster international cooperation at the right social-ecological scale; (ii) to increase guidance in translating complex scientific requirements into clear management objectives, and improve related data collection and sharing; and (iii) to reduce current legal and policy fragmentation through targeted, ecological resilience-based marine environmental impact assessments and maritime spatial planning. Lines for further scientific research are suggested, focusing on: (i) improving the evidence-base through additional case-studies; (ii) analysing legal frameworks and governance regimes in place for other marine social-ecological systems, like e.g. the United States of America, Canada, Australia and China; (iii) improving existing tools, or creating new ones for marine ecological resilience assessment; and (iv) developing innovative instruments and mechanisms to strengthen global oceans governance.

In a context of future population increase and intensification of water cycle by climate change, water demand for irrigation is projected to double. However, freshwater resources have been degraded the last decades especially in rivers via fragmentation, dam contraction and pollution. Flow alteration and degradation lead to 80% of freshwater ecosystem species loss. In this thesis, a robust and reliable Environmental Flow (EF) method was developed for global scale: the Variable Monthly Flow (VMF) method. This method allowed estimating EF deficit at global scale including its origin, timing, frequency and magnitude. By setting EFRs as priority user in a global vegetation and hydrological model (LPJmL), irrigation loss due to EFRs implementation were assessed at 30% leading to 5% global calorie loss. To maintain water allocation to humans and ecosystems under global change, food imports would require to increase by 15% especially from Latin America to South of Asia.

High northern latitudes exhibit enhanced near-surface warming in a climate with increasing greenhouse gases compared to other parts of the globe, indicating an amplified climate response to external forcing. Decadal to multidecadal variability sometimes enhances and at other times reduces the long-term trends. Therefore, the influence of internal variability should be taken into account when externally forced climate signals are assessed. This thesis contributes to our understanding of Arctic climate projections by clarifying the role of coupled ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere processes on the long-term trends and decadal variability of the Arctic climate system. Important mechanisms linked to the location of the sea ice margin and ocean heat transports into the Arctic have been identified and were shown to have a substantial effect on the Arctic's response to climate change.

Global climate has been warming up for the last decades and it will continue in this century. The Arctic is the part of the globe that warms fastest and is more sensitive to climate warming. Aboveground productivity of Arctic tundra has been shown to increase in response to warmer climates. However, belowground responses of tundra vegetation are still unclear. As the major part of plant biomass in tundra lies belowground, it is pivotal to investigate changes in the belowground parts of tundra vegetation for our understanding of climate warming effects on tundra ecosystems. To get a general idea of how belowground plant biomass may change in a warmer climate, we synthesized published data on the belowground biomass of tundra vegetation across a broad gradient of mean annual air temperature from −20 to 0 °C. We found that aboveground biomass of tundra biomass indeed increases with mean annual temperature as well as summer air temperature, while belowground biomass did not show a significant relationship with temperature. The increases in the aboveground biomass were significantly larger than belowground biomass, resulting in reduced below/above ratios at higher temperatures. The shifted biomass allocation with temperature can influence the carbon dynamics of tundra ecosystems. Future tundra studies need to focus more on the species or functional type composition of belowground biomass and species or functional type specific belowground responses to climate warming. To determine the seasonal changes and vertical distribution of root biomass of different plant functional types, we sampled roots at a Siberian tundra site in the early and late growing season, from vegetation types dominated by graminoids and shrubs respectively. We distinguished the roots of graminoids and shrubs, and found that shrub roots grew earlier and shallower than graminoid roots, which enables shrubs to gain advantage over graminoids at the early growing season when nutrient pulses occur during snowmelt and soil thaw. The deeper roots of graminoids can help them to be more competitive if climate warming induces more nutrient release in the deeper soil. In a soil thawing and fertilization experiment, we further investigated the effects of increased thawing depth and nutrient supply in the upper soil, which can be the consequences of climate warming, on root biomass and its vertical distribution. In this study we distinguished between the roots of grasses, sedges, deciduous shrubs and evergreen shrubs. The study was done in a moist tussock tundra site with similar abundance of the different plant functional types. We found that only sedges benefited from the increased thawing depth, probably through their deepest root distribution among the four functional types, while the shrubs, which were shallower-rooted, benefited from the increased nutrient availability in the upper soil. The deep-rooted grasses had the highest plasticity in vertical root distribution, which enabled them also to benefit greatly from the fertilization. Our results show that tundra plants with different rooting strategies can show different responses to climate warming dependent on the relative warming impacts on the nutrient supply in shallow and deeper soil layers. This insight can help to predict future tundra vegetation dynamics. The carbon balance of tundra ecosystems also depends on the decomposition of plant litter, particularly the root litter, which may account for a larger part of annual litter input than leaf litter in tundra ecosystems. Vegetation shifts also change litter quality which ultimately influences carbon dynamics. To investigate the differences in the decomposition of leaves and roots of graminoids and shrubs, we performed a litter transplant experiment. We found that although the decomposability of leaf litter did not differ between the graminoid and shrub, root decomposability might be lower for the shrub. However, this cannot be extrapolated to the overall decomposition in different vegetation types, as these different plant communities differ in rooting depths. We also found evidence of home-field advantage in the decomposition in Arctic tundra, and we show that the early stage of litter decomposition at our research site could be driven by the phosphorus concentration of the litter. To get a full understanding of the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems, much more efforts are needed to quantify litter input and decomposition. In this thesis we show that belowground parts, which account for a major part of plant biomass in tundra, can show a different response to climate warming from aboveground parts. Belowground responses to climate warming can have crucial impacts on the competitive balance between tundra plants, and consequently result in vegetation shifts in tundra. Such shifts in species composition can have large effects on carbon dynamics through altered input and decomposability of plant litter, particularly root litter.

Klimaatverandering beinvloedt de Nederlandse natuur. Soorten reageren door noordwaarts te verhuizen. Van belang is, dat ze daar de ruimte toe hebben, en niet gehinderd worden door de versnippering van de huidige natuurgebieden. De auteur houdt zich in haar promotiewerk bezig met het vinden van de knelpunten, die de Ecologische Hoofdstructuur oplevert. Verspreidingsdata van Vlinderstichting en SOVON gaan gekoppeld worden aan data van de KNMI over de afgelopen eeuw

Het waarheidsgehalte van het jongste IPCC-rapport staat zwaar onder druk. Gevolg is dat wereldwijd het draagvlak groeit voor criticasters die beweren dat klimaatverandering als gevolg van menselijk handelen een fabeltje is. Dat is het beslist niet, betogen Rik Leemans en Wim Turkensteen. Punt voor punt gaan de twee hoogleraren, beiden direct betrokken bij het IPCC, in op de gesignaleerde onjuistheden en voorzien deze van commentaar. Verplichte kost voor iedereen die zich in het klimaatdebat roert.

Potential rates of both methane production and methane consumption vary over three orders of magnitude and their distribution is skew. These rates are weakly correlated with ecosystem type, incubation temperature, in situ aeration, latitude, depth and distance to oxic/anoxic interface. Anaerobic carbon mineralisation is a major control of methane production. The large range in anaerobic CH_4:CO_2 production rates indicate that a large part of the anaerobically mineralised carbon is used for reduction of electron acceptors, and, hence, is not available for methanogenesis. Consequently, cycling of electron acceptors needs to be studied to understand methane production. Methane and oxygen half saturation constants for methane oxidation vary about one order of magnitude. Potential methane oxidation seems to be correlated with methanotrophic biomass. Therefore, variation in potential methane oxidation could be related to site characteristics with a model of methanotrophic biomass.

Met een kosten-batenanalyse wordt nagegaan in welke mate bebossing van landbouwgronden in Nederland een kostenefficiente methode kan zijn om de CO2-concentratie te verlagen

Een overzicht van de kennis op het gebied van de invloed van de landbouw op klimaatveranderingen en andersom

Accurate estimates of total nitrous oxide (N2O) losses from grasslands derived from flux-chamber measurements are hampered by the large spatial and temporal variability of N2O fluxes from these sites. In this study, four methods for the calculation o

Methane (CH4) emission from Philippine rice paddies was monitored with a closed chamber technique during the 1992 dry and wet season. CH4 emissions were significantly higher in the dry season. Application of green manure stimulated CH4 emissions. In plots that received more than 11 t ha−1 of fresh green manure, CH4 emission was highest during the first half of the growing season. Significant amounts of CH4 may evolve during or immediately after transplanting, if the organic amendments are incorporated 1 to 3 weeks before transplanting. Laboratory incubations of soil cores show that CH4 production is highest near the soil surface. CH4 production in green manure treated fields is higher than in urea-fertilized fields, but toward the end of the season this difference is less pronounced. Around panicle initiation, the fraction of CH4 produced, which was emitted to the atmosphere, is lower than at tillering or ripening. The impact of organic amendments on CH4 emissions at different locations of the world can be described by a dose response curve, if CH4 emission from organically amended plots is expressed relative to CH4 emission from mineral fertilized plots of the same location and season. Various organic amendments (e.g., straw, fermented residues) have a similar effect on CH4 emissions after correction for differences in easily decomposable carbon content.

This working paper is to discuss policy instruments which would, in principle, lend themselves for a scale-up of employer-led incentive schemes. Given that such an implementation requires financial transfers, our focus is on project-based CO2-markets and direct subsidy schemes to end-consumers. Up to the present, only Switzerland has implemented a credit-based emissions trading scheme on the domestic level. While, currently, the Swiss regime does not provide for a potential pooling of small-scale reductions, extending the scheme accordingly would engender only low additional cost. Other eligible regulations are dominated rather by state-set incentives, like subsidies, directly provided to households. Such schemes would be suitable for a pass-through via the employer. Yet, such a redirection of subsidies via firms seems to be more difficult to be implemented from a political and legal perspective. Still, these programmes provide solid support for the presumption that financial transfers provided within an employer-led incentive scheme can considerably speed up switches toward the use of “greener” technologies within households.

Het Nederlandse oppervlaktewater wordt sterk belast met stikstof. Dit is afkomstig uit de landbouw, maar ook van industrie, verkeer en huishoudens. Door het teveel aan stikstof verslechtert de waterkwaliteit. In ondiepe meren leidt dit bijvoorbeeld tot overmatige algengroei met zuurstofloosheid en vissterfte tot gevolg. Denitrificatie, de omzetting van de stikstofverbinding nitraat naar stikstofgas, is een natuurlijk proces dat stikstof uit oppervlaktewater verwijdert.

Het Nederlandse oppervlaktewater wordt sterk belast met stikstof. Dit is afkomstig uit de landbouw, maar ook van industrie, verkeer en huishoudens. Door het teveel aan stikstof verslechtert de waterkwaliteit. In ondiepe meren leidt dit bijvoorbeeld tot overmatige algengroei met zuurstofloosheid en vissterfte tot gevolg. Denitrificatie, de omzetting van de stikstofverbinding nitraat naar stikstofgas, is een natuurlijk proces dat stikstof uit oppervlaktewater verwijdert.

This working paper is to discuss policy instruments which would, in principle, lend themselves for a scale-up of employer-led incentive schemes. Given that such an implementation requires financial transfers, our focus is on project-based CO2-markets and direct subsidy schemes to end-consumers. Up to the present, only Switzerland has implemented a credit-based emissions trading scheme on the domestic level. While, currently, the Swiss regime does not provide for a potential pooling of small-scale reductions, extending the scheme accordingly would engender only low additional cost. Other eligible regulations are dominated rather by state-set incentives, like subsidies, directly provided to households. Such schemes would be suitable for a pass-through via the employer. Yet, such a redirection of subsidies via firms seems to be more difficult to be implemented from a political and legal perspective. Still, these programmes provide solid support for the presumption that financial transfers provided within an employer-led incentive scheme can considerably speed up switches toward the use of “greener” technologies within households.

Moeten we ons wel zo druk maken over de opwarming van de aarde zolang het IJsselmeer nog dichtvriest en er wetenschappers zijn die voorspellen dat het kouder wordt? Zijn de klimaatwetenschappers niet een beetje aan het overdrijven? Net als destijds de Club van Rome, met zijn waarschuwingen over grondstoffen die snel op zouden raken en over bossen die dood zouden gaan. En de ozonlaag, daar hoor je ook niemand meer over. Politici maken ons bang met het einde van de wereld, maar hoe kunnen ze het klimaat over vijftig jaar eigenlijk zo precies voorspellen als de gewone weersverwachting er al regelmatig naast zit? Bovendien, de uitstoot van CO2 lijkt niet te stoppen. Wij kunnen hier wel spaarlampen gebruiken, maar in China gaat elke week een nieuwe kolencentrale open. Kunnen wij onze welvaart wel op peil houden met windmolens en zonneenergie? De vervuiling van de mens is toch nietig in vergelijking met die van vulkanen, zonnevlekken en dergelijke. Of toch niet? Pier Vellinga zet in 'Hoezo klimaatverandering' de belangrijkste feiten en fabels over klimaatverandering op een rij. Zonder de onzekerheden uit de weg te gaan geeft dit boek een helder inzicht in wat we weten over het broeikaseffect – en wat we ertegen kunnen doen.

Moeten we ons wel zo druk maken over de opwarming van de aarde zolang het IJsselmeer nog dichtvriest en er wetenschappers zijn die voorspellen dat het kouder wordt? Zijn de klimaatwetenschappers niet een beetje aan het overdrijven? Net als destijds de Club van Rome, met zijn waarschuwingen over grondstoffen die snel op zouden raken en over bossen die dood zouden gaan. En de ozonlaag, daar hoor je ook niemand meer over. Politici maken ons bang met het einde van de wereld, maar hoe kunnen ze het klimaat over vijftig jaar eigenlijk zo precies voorspellen als de gewone weersverwachting er al regelmatig naast zit? Bovendien, de uitstoot van CO2 lijkt niet te stoppen. Wij kunnen hier wel spaarlampen gebruiken, maar in China gaat elke week een nieuwe kolencentrale open. Kunnen wij onze welvaart wel op peil houden met windmolens en zonneenergie? De vervuiling van de mens is toch nietig in vergelijking met die van vulkanen, zonnevlekken en dergelijke. Of toch niet? Pier Vellinga zet in 'Hoezo klimaatverandering' de belangrijkste feiten en fabels over klimaatverandering op een rij. Zonder de onzekerheden uit de weg te gaan geeft dit boek een helder inzicht in wat we weten over het broeikaseffect – en wat we ertegen kunnen doen.

Kooldioxide, methaan en lachgas zijn de belangrijkste broeikasgassen waarvan de emissie naar de atmosfeer, door onder andere veranderingen in landgebruik, is toegenomen. Bij de tabellen en figuren informatie over: belangrijke C-voorraden en -stromen

Visie van de auteur over welke boomsoorten uit het oogpunt van de klimaatverandering en duurzaamheid teruggeplant kunnen woren in historische lanen, die ook blijvend passen in de cultuurhistorische sfeer van die lanen.

Het klimaat van Nederland in de afgelopen tien jaar is vergelijkbaar met dat van Lyon in de jaren zeventig en de gevolgen daarvan zijn in de natuur duidelijk te merken. Planten bloeien vroeger, het groeiseizoen duurt langer en de soortenrijkdom van ons land verandert

Global warming is one of the crucial challenges that the world is facing now. The allocation of reduction efforts among regions has long been negotiated and it will not be an easy task to achieve a full cooperation with stringent targets. The thesis examines the formation of international climate agreements (ICAs) in a game-theoretic framework. I analyse strategic behaviour of a number of regions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Game-theoretic approaches have been widely used to examine an interaction between countries in the negotiations on climate change, and have emphasised difficulties in designing such a voluntary agreement. This thesis provides a systematic approach to examine the impacts of designs of the ICAs on the success of ICAs. In Chapter 2, I present the basic structure of the STACO-2.1 model, composed of a game-theoretic framework and applied features, with specifications and calibrations of the functions used in the model. I analyse the results for (i) the All Singletons coalition structure, (ii) the Grand coalition structure, and (iii) all stable coalition structures. This case can serve as a suitable reference point for the analysis of the various mechanisms in the following chapters. The results show that a coalition of EU15 and Japan is stable. Both regions have an interest in cooperation, because of their higher marginal benefits from abatement. The results suggest that regions with relatively lower marginal abatement costs and lower marginal benefits would be worse off when they cooperate as they bear the largest burden of abatement but obtain the least benefits. This suggests that transfer schemes can be effective to stabilise larger coalitions. In Chapter 3, I analyse the impact of pragmatic and optimal transfer schemes on the incentives for regions to join international climate agreements. With an applied model that comprises twelve world regions I investigate: (i) a benchmark without transfers, (ii) scenarios with allocation-based rules where coalition members receive tradable emission permits proportional to initial or future emissions, (iii) scenarios with outcome-based rules where the coalition surplus is distributed proportional to the emissions, and (iv) a scenario based on an optimal sharing rule where the coalition surplus is distributed proportional to outside option payoffs. I find that when the transfer scheme is poorly designed in the sense that it increases incentives to free-ride, the best performing stable coalition may be worse than in the case of no transfers. In our applied setting this occurs for the initial-emissions-based tradable permit system (grandfathering). Improvements of the initial-emissions-based tradable permit system, such as a tradable permit system based on the full path of emissions or a surplus sharing scheme, do enhance stability of coalitions. For the optimal transfer scheme we find that larger coalitions, which include key players such as the United States and China, can be stable, but no transfer scheme is capable of stabilising the Grand Coalition. The results show that optimal transfers perform much better than more pragmatic transfer schemes. Such schemes, however, require detailed insight into the incentive structures of the regions. Therefore, there is a trade-off between more pragmatic schemes that may be easier to implement but are hardly effective and optimal transfers which may be hard to achieve in actual negotiations. In Chapter 4, I explore how different technology spillover mechanisms among regions can influence the incentives to join and stabilise an international agreement. Several theories on the impact of technology spillovers are evaluated by simulating a range of alternative specifications: (i) no spillovers, (ii) internal spillovers, (iii) global spillovers, (iv) coalitional spillovers, and (v) extended spillovers (all possible technology spillovers). I find that spillovers are a good instrument to increase the abatement efforts of coalitions and reduce the associated costs. In our setting, however, they cannot overcome the strong free-rider incentives that are present in larger coalitions. Therefore, technology spillovers do not substantially increase the success of international environmental agreements. This conclusion is robust with respect to the specification of technology spillovers. In Chapter 5, I relax the assumption of exogenous technological change analysed in the previous chapters and explore the impacts of induced technological change (ITC) on the stability of an international climate agreement. To examine the impacts of different specifications of technological change in reducing abatement costs on regional incentives, three scenarios are investigated: (i) no technological change (noTC), (ii) exogenous technological change (ExTC), and (iii) induced technological change (ITC). Technological change is induced by the abatement targets. It reduces emissions through regional R&D investments, which lowers abatement costs over time. The results reveal that the set of best-performing stable coalitions and the associated indicator of success hardly change between the scenario of noTC and ExTC, but ITC does produce a different set of stable coalitions. Coalitions that are stable in all three scenarios can achieve the highest NPV of payoffs in the case of ITC. The results indicate that coalition members increase their investments and abatement substantially when they cooperate in the case of ITC. As a result of increased global abatement, not only coalition members but also singletons obtain high benefits, which leads to decrease (increase) in the number of internally (externally) stable coalitions. Therefore, ITC might improve global payoffs, however, at the same time it tends to increase free-rider incentives due to the public good nature of global warming. I find that the indicator of success is quite robust with respect to the productivity of R&D. Furthermore, the number of internally (externally) stable coalitions decreases (increases) with the value of the productivity of R&D, as free-riding incentives increase. I find that stability is sensitive with respect to changes of the discount rate. The number of stable coalitions increases with the value of discount rate. In both cases, the dominating mechanism is that higher productivity of R&D or a lower discount rate increase the payoffs of regions, and thus increase the gains of cooperation, but also increase free-rider incentives. Overall, the main finding of this thesis is that well-designed mechanisms can facilitate successful formation of partial coalitions, although global cooperation is still hard to achieve. The reason lies in the public good nature of global warming and regional characteristics of benefits and costs. Following insights of the current literature on transfer schemes, our systematic analysis supports the fact that an incentive to join the agreement is highly sensitive to the design of transfers. For different designs of transfer schemes, there is a trade-off between feasibility and effectiveness. Allocation-based transfer schemes are easier to implement than an optimal transfer scheme which can achieve more successful coalition formation in the context of global payoffs and CO2 emissions. The role of technological change has received significant attentions to reduce a significant amount of emissions. Two types of sources of technological change are investigated in the thesis: (i) technology spillovers and (ii) R&D investment. If technology spillovers are treated as private goods, a country with higher abatement technology can be an attractive partner for other countries to cooperate with, as cooperation on abatement will lead to reduction in abatement costs without paying for technology improvement. Within the context of assumptions used here, quantitative results suggest that the spillovers between cooperating regions may not be effective enough to overcome the freeriding incentives for non-cooperative countries, as large emission reduction by cooperating countries will bring large benefits also to non-cooperating countries. In the case of induced technological change, regional R&D investments improve the stock of knowledge which leads to low abatement costs. When cooperating with other regions, signatories can obtain higher payoffs than in All Singletons, which is driven by increased investment after cooperation on abatement. ITC plays a significant role in increasing global payoffs, however, it also increases freerider incentives as non-signatories also benefit from a large reduction made by signatories. As long as R&D investments increase payoffs under cooperation on abatement and the gains from cooperation are large, the difference in the source of technological change will not provide any significant differences in terms of improvement in the success of a climate agreement. The Kyoto Protocol was the first significant step that provided stimulus for search for successful international cooperation on climate change policies, although there are issues to be improved. Now, negotiation on the post Kyoto framework has been taking place with an aim of large cooperation on tackling climate change among countries. Flexible measures which lead to a win-win cooperation for the countries involved will continue to play a crucial role in achieving a successful cooperation and the search for well-designed mechanisms will be further pursued.

Visie van de auteur over welke boomsoorten uit het oogpunt van de klimaatverandering en duurzaamheid teruggeplant kunnen woren in historische lanen, die ook blijvend passen in de cultuurhistorische sfeer van die lanen.

Het waarheidsgehalte van het jongste IPCC-rapport staat zwaar onder druk. Gevolg is dat wereldwijd het draagvlak groeit voor criticasters die beweren dat klimaatverandering als gevolg van menselijk handelen een fabeltje is. Dat is het beslist niet, betogen Rik Leemans en Wim Turkensteen. Punt voor punt gaan de twee hoogleraren, beiden direct betrokken bij het IPCC, in op de gesignaleerde onjuistheden en voorzien deze van commentaar. Verplichte kost voor iedereen die zich in het klimaatdebat roert.

Global warming is one of the crucial challenges that the world is facing now. The allocation of reduction efforts among regions has long been negotiated and it will not be an easy task to achieve a full cooperation with stringent targets. The thesis examines the formation of international climate agreements (ICAs) in a game-theoretic framework. I analyse strategic behaviour of a number of regions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Game-theoretic approaches have been widely used to examine an interaction between countries in the negotiations on climate change, and have emphasised difficulties in designing such a voluntary agreement. This thesis provides a systematic approach to examine the impacts of designs of the ICAs on the success of ICAs. In Chapter 2, I present the basic structure of the STACO-2.1 model, composed of a game-theoretic framework and applied features, with specifications and calibrations of the functions used in the model. I analyse the results for (i) the All Singletons coalition structure, (ii) the Grand coalition structure, and (iii) all stable coalition structures. This case can serve as a suitable reference point for the analysis of the various mechanisms in the following chapters. The results show that a coalition of EU15 and Japan is stable. Both regions have an interest in cooperation, because of their higher marginal benefits from abatement. The results suggest that regions with relatively lower marginal abatement costs and lower marginal benefits would be worse off when they cooperate as they bear the largest burden of abatement but obtain the least benefits. This suggests that transfer schemes can be effective to stabilise larger coalitions. In Chapter 3, I analyse the impact of pragmatic and optimal transfer schemes on the incentives for regions to join international climate agreements. With an applied model that comprises twelve world regions I investigate: (i) a benchmark without transfers, (ii) scenarios with allocation-based rules where coalition members receive tradable emission permits proportional to initial or future emissions, (iii) scenarios with outcome-based rules where the coalition surplus is distributed proportional to the emissions, and (iv) a scenario based on an optimal sharing rule where the coalition surplus is distributed proportional to outside option payoffs. I find that when the transfer scheme is poorly designed in the sense that it increases incentives to free-ride, the best performing stable coalition may be worse than in the case of no transfers. In our applied setting this occurs for the initial-emissions-based tradable permit system (grandfathering). Improvements of the initial-emissions-based tradable permit system, such as a tradable permit system based on the full path of emissions or a surplus sharing scheme, do enhance stability of coalitions. For the optimal transfer scheme we find that larger coalitions, which include key players such as the United States and China, can be stable, but no transfer scheme is capable of stabilising the Grand Coalition. The results show that optimal transfers perform much better than more pragmatic transfer schemes. Such schemes, however, require detailed insight into the incentive structures of the regions. Therefore, there is a trade-off between more pragmatic schemes that may be easier to implement but are hardly effective and optimal transfers which may be hard to achieve in actual negotiations. In Chapter 4, I explore how different technology spillover mechanisms among regions can influence the incentives to join and stabilise an international agreement. Several theories on the impact of technology spillovers are evaluated by simulating a range of alternative specifications: (i) no spillovers, (ii) internal spillovers, (iii) global spillovers, (iv) coalitional spillovers, and (v) extended spillovers (all possible technology spillovers). I find that spillovers are a good instrument to increase the abatement efforts of coalitions and reduce the associated costs. In our setting, however, they cannot overcome the strong free-rider incentives that are present in larger coalitions. Therefore, technology spillovers do not substantially increase the success of international environmental agreements. This conclusion is robust with respect to the specification of technology spillovers. In Chapter 5, I relax the assumption of exogenous technological change analysed in the previous chapters and explore the impacts of induced technological change (ITC) on the stability of an international climate agreement. To examine the impacts of different specifications of technological change in reducing abatement costs on regional incentives, three scenarios are investigated: (i) no technological change (noTC), (ii) exogenous technological change (ExTC), and (iii) induced technological change (ITC). Technological change is induced by the abatement targets. It reduces emissions through regional R&D investments, which lowers abatement costs over time. The results reveal that the set of best-performing stable coalitions and the associated indicator of success hardly change between the scenario of noTC and ExTC, but ITC does produce a different set of stable coalitions. Coalitions that are stable in all three scenarios can achieve the highest NPV of payoffs in the case of ITC. The results indicate that coalition members increase their investments and abatement substantially when they cooperate in the case of ITC. As a result of increased global abatement, not only coalition members but also singletons obtain high benefits, which leads to decrease (increase) in the number of internally (externally) stable coalitions. Therefore, ITC might improve global payoffs, however, at the same time it tends to increase free-rider incentives due to the public good nature of global warming. I find that the indicator of success is quite robust with respect to the productivity of R&D. Furthermore, the number of internally (externally) stable coalitions decreases (increases) with the value of the productivity of R&D, as free-riding incentives increase. I find that stability is sensitive with respect to changes of the discount rate. The number of stable coalitions increases with the value of discount rate. In both cases, the dominating mechanism is that higher productivity of R&D or a lower discount rate increase the payoffs of regions, and thus increase the gains of cooperation, but also increase free-rider incentives. Overall, the main finding of this thesis is that well-designed mechanisms can facilitate successful formation of partial coalitions, although global cooperation is still hard to achieve. The reason lies in the public good nature of global warming and regional characteristics of benefits and costs. Following insights of the current literature on transfer schemes, our systematic analysis supports the fact that an incentive to join the agreement is highly sensitive to the design of transfers. For different designs of transfer schemes, there is a trade-off between feasibility and effectiveness. Allocation-based transfer schemes are easier to implement than an optimal transfer scheme which can achieve more successful coalition formation in the context of global payoffs and CO2 emissions. The role of technological change has received significant attentions to reduce a significant amount of emissions. Two types of sources of technological change are investigated in the thesis: (i) technology spillovers and (ii) R&D investment. If technology spillovers are treated as private goods, a country with higher abatement technology can be an attractive partner for other countries to cooperate with, as cooperation on abatement will lead to reduction in abatement costs without paying for technology improvement. Within the context of assumptions used here, quantitative results suggest that the spillovers between cooperating regions may not be effective enough to overcome the freeriding incentives for non-cooperative countries, as large emission reduction by cooperating countries will bring large benefits also to non-cooperating countries. In the case of induced technological change, regional R&D investments improve the stock of knowledge which leads to low abatement costs. When cooperating with other regions, signatories can obtain higher payoffs than in All Singletons, which is driven by increased investment after cooperation on abatement. ITC plays a significant role in increasing global payoffs, however, it also increases freerider incentives as non-signatories also benefit from a large reduction made by signatories. As long as R&D investments increase payoffs under cooperation on abatement and the gains from cooperation are large, the difference in the source of technological change will not provide any significant differences in terms of improvement in the success of a climate agreement. The Kyoto Protocol was the first significant step that provided stimulus for search for successful international cooperation on climate change policies, although there are issues to be improved. Now, negotiation on the post Kyoto framework has been taking place with an aim of large cooperation on tackling climate change among countries. Flexible measures which lead to a win-win cooperation for the countries involved will continue to play a crucial role in achieving a successful cooperation and the search for well-designed mechanisms will be further pursued.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and is estimated to be responsible for approximately one-fifth of man-made global warming. Per kilogram, it is 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time horizon -- and global warming is likely to enhance methane release from a number of sources. Current natural and man-made sources include many where methane-producing micro-organisms can thrive in anaerobic conditions, particularly ruminant livestock, rice cultivation, landfill, wastewater, wetlands and marine sediments. This timely and authoritative book provides the only comprehensive and balanced overview of our current knowledge of sources of methane and how these might be controlled to limit future climate change. It describes how methane is derived from the anaerobic metabolism of micro-organisms, whether in wetlands or rice fields, manure, landfill or wastewater, or the digestive systems of cattle and other ruminant animals. It highlights how sources of methane might themselves be affected by climate change. It is shown how numerous point sources of methane have the potential to be more easily addressed than sources of carbon dioxide and therefore contribute significantly to climate change mitigation in the 21st century.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and is estimated to be responsible for approximately one-fifth of man-made global warming. Per kilogram, it is 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time horizon -- and global warming is likely to enhance methane release from a number of sources. Current natural and man-made sources include many where methane-producing micro-organisms can thrive in anaerobic conditions, particularly ruminant livestock, rice cultivation, landfill, wastewater, wetlands and marine sediments. This timely and authoritative book provides the only comprehensive and balanced overview of our current knowledge of sources of methane and how these might be controlled to limit future climate change. It describes how methane is derived from the anaerobic metabolism of micro-organisms, whether in wetlands or rice fields, manure, landfill or wastewater, or the digestive systems of cattle and other ruminant animals. It highlights how sources of methane might themselves be affected by climate change. It is shown how numerous point sources of methane have the potential to be more easily addressed than sources of carbon dioxide and therefore contribute significantly to climate change mitigation in the 21st century.

This review starts with a brief discussion on agricultural land use in the Netherlands, followed by an overview of the expected climatic changes in the Netherlands and the consequences of land use change on current agricultural practices. Subsequently, adaptation strategies as suggested in the literature are summarized and discussed.

De watertemperatuur in beken, sloten, rivieren en plassen gaat langzaam stijgen onder invloed van klimaatverandering. Onderzoek van Alterra laat zien dat de samenstelling van het onderwaterleven hierdoor verandert. De Kaderrichtlijn Water houdt daar echter nog geen rekening mee

Hoe gaan we om met de gevolgen van klimaatverandering, zoals de dreiging van overstromingen, tekorten aan zoet water, achteruitgang van natuur en oververhitte steden? Onderzoekers van Wageningen UR brengen voor die discussie de ruimtelijke effecten in kaart

Nederland zou bedrijven kunnen gaan betrekken bij het vinden van oplossingen voor wateroverlast. India heeft misschien wat aan de manier waarop Europa boeren compenseert voor het leveren van groene en blauwe diensten. En als de landbouw opschuift naar de Oostbloklanden, dan verandert de waterafvoer van de Rijn. Over de grens kijken is leerzaam, maakt Eddy Moors duidelijk

ETFRN news No. 50: Forests and Climate Change: adaptation and mitigation. This newsletter contains interesting materials for those who think about the question how to proceed with forests and climate change after Copenhagen, with or without an agreement. Here below are presented some observations from this newsletter: • Adaptation and mitigation are separate issues in the climate discussions, but in forest practice they are two sides of the same coin. • We need forest management directed at the realization of different objectives at the same time, we do not need pure ‘carbon forests’. Not addressing ‘people’ and ‘planet’ considerations is increasingly seen – by both the public and private sector – as a business risk. • Not all countries will be able to comply with REDD rules in the short term. The voluntary carbon market will remain important. • REDD is an opportunity and a risk for local communities. Risks should be made transparent, and open and equal participation by communities in design and decision-making should be promoted • REDD and other forest-based climate change mitigation measures are likely to be low-cost and effective in the short to medium term. Some stakeholders fear that forests may become a too-cheap mitigation option and corrupt the overall climate agreement. In most calculations, however, the costs of developing, operating and managing the institutional system required to produce credible and sustainable forest carbon credits are not internalized in forest carbon prices. If they were, forest carbon prices would become much higher and more realistic. • The role of forests must be clarified and articulated in National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs). At present most political attention and financing is focused on REDD, and, in general, on climate mitigation. Only recently has the concern for the role of forests in adaptation gained ground; this emanates from the growing recognition that climate change will happen anyway. Moreover, climate change will affect the most vulnerable ecosystems and poorer regions. • There is a clear need for harmonization and coherence in the certification market (SFM, and carbon, fair trade etc.). Certification is not necessarily the only credible basis for payment. As illustrated in this issue, mutual trust can be an alternative, particularly for small-scale initiatives that cannot afford the high transaction costs of certification.

Ook als de meest extreme klimaatscenario’s uitkomen, daalt de grondwaterspiegel in Nederland waarschijnlijk niet dramatisch. Naar verwachting hebben neerslagtekorten in droge zomers een veel grotere invloed op boeren en natuur. Dat is goed nieuws voor natte natuurgebieden

Een warmer en grilliger klimaat met meer neerslag in korte tijd verhevigt de eutrofiëringsproblemen en leidt tot grote gevolgen voor de interacties tussen algen, waterplanten, vissen en zoöplankton. Dit is kort samengevat de conclusie van een grote verscheidenheid aan onderzoeken die onlangs werden gepresenteerd in Uruguay. Dit kwam niet voor iedereen als een verrassing, maar wat betekent het voor het waterbeheer in Nederland