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How the solar wind influences the magnetospheres of the outer planets is a fundamentally important question, but is difficult to answer in the absence of consistent, simultaneous monitoring of the upstream solar wind and the large‐scale dynamics internal to the magnetosphere. To compensate for the relative lack of in‐situ solar wind data, propagation models are often used to estimate the ambient solar wind conditions at the outer planets for comparison to remote observations or in‐situ measurements. This introduces another complication: the propagation of near‐Earth solar wind measurements introduces difficult‐to‐assess uncertainties. Here, we present the Multi‐Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH) to begin to address these issues, along with the resultant multi‐model ensemble (MME) of the solar wind conditions near Jupiter. MMESH accepts as input any number of solar wind models together with contemporaneous in‐situ spacecraft data. From these, the system characterizes typical uncertainties in model timing, quantifies how these uncertainties vary under different conditions, attempts to correct for systematic biases in the input model timing, and composes a MME with uncertainties from the results. For the Juno‐era (04/07/2016–04/07/2023) MME hindcast for Jupiter presented here, three solar wind propagation models were compared to in‐situ measurements from the near‐Jupiter spacecraft Ulysses and Juno spanning diverse geometries and phases of the solar cycle across >14,000 hr of data covering 2.5 decades. The MME gives the most‐probable near‐Jupiter solar wind conditions for times within the tested epoch, outperforming the input models and returning quantified estimates of uncertainty. Plain Language Summary: The sun interacts with all the planets in the solar system through the solar wind, a stream of charged particles which blow outwards from the sun in all directions, carrying the interplanetary magnetic field with them. Both the magnetic field and particles interact with planetary magnetic fields with dramatic effects, including the aurora–which shine not only on the Earth, but on gas giants of the outer solar system, like Jupiter, too. Characterizing the relationship between the solar wind and planetary magnetic fields is easiest with direct spacecraft measurements of both. Spacecraft between the Earth and Sun measure the solar wind, providing valuable context for understanding its interaction with the Earth. Unfortunately, there are no such permanent spacecraft near the other planets. Instead, models can be used to estimate the solar wind at these planets; however, these models can have significant, difficult‐to‐characterize uncertainties. Here we present the Multi‐Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH), a framework designed to measure these uncertainties and attempt to correct for them by comparing multiple solar wind models to spacecraft measurements over a long time span. The final result here is an improved solar wind model, with estimated uncertainties, for Jupiter. Key Points: The performance of several existing solar wind propagation models at the orbit of Jupiter is measured for multiple spacecraft epochsA flexible system is developed to generate an ensemble of multiple propagation models so as to best leverage each input model's strengthsOver the epoch tested, the multi‐model ensemble outperforms individual input models by 7%–110% in forecasting the solar wind flow speed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heliosphere is a protective shield around the solar system created by the Sun's interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) through the solar wind, transients, and interplanetary magnetic field. The shape of the heliosphere is directly linked with interactions with the surrounding LISM, in turn affecting the space environment within the heliosphere. Understanding the shape of the heliosphere, the LISM properties, and their interactions is critical for understanding the impacts within the solar system and for understanding other astrospheres. Understanding the shape of the heliosphere requires an understanding of the heliotail, as the shape is highly dependent upon the heliotail and its LISM interactions. The heliotail additionally presents an opportunity for more direct in situ measurement of interstellar particles from within the heliosphere, given the likelihood of magnetic reconnection and turbulent mixing between the LISM and the heliotail. Measurements in the heliotail should be made of pickup ions, energetic neutral atoms, low energy neutrals, and cosmic rays, as well as interstellar ions that may be injected into the heliosphere through processes such as magnetic reconnection, which can create a direct magnetic link from the LISM into the heliosphere. The Interstellar Probe mission is an ideal opportunity for measurement either along a trajectory passing through the heliotail, via the flank, or by use of a pair of spacecraft that explore the heliosphere both tailward and noseward to yield a more complete picture of the shape of the heliosphere and to help us better understand its interactions with the LISM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed overview of the knowledge gaps in our understanding of the heliospheric interaction with the largely unexplored Very Local Interstellar Medium (VLISM) are provided along with predictions of with the scientific discoveries that await. The new measurements required to make progress in this expanding frontier of space physics are discussed and include in-situ plasma and pick-up ion measurements throughout the heliosheath, direct sampling of the VLISM properties such as elemental and isotopic composition, densities, flows, and temperatures of neutral gas, dust and plasma, and remote energetic neutral atom (ENA) and Lyman-alpha (LYA) imaging from vantage points that can uniquely discern the heliospheric shape and bring new information on the interaction with interstellar hydrogen. The implementation of a pragmatic Interstellar Probe mission with a nominal design life to reach 375 Astronomical Units (au) with likely operation out to 550 au are reported as a result of a 4-year NASA funded mission study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voyager 1 occasionally detected sudden jumps of the local interstellar magnetic field strength since its heliopause crossing in August 2012. These events were believed to be associated with outward propagating solar wind shocks originating in the inner heliosphere. Here we investigate the correlation between interstellar shocks and large-scale solar wind events by means of numerical MHD simulation. The solar wind is simplified as a symmetric flow near the equatorial plane, and the interstellar neutrals are treated as a constant flow with a fixed density distribution along the upwind direction of the local interstellar medium. The charge exchanges between the solar wind plasma and the interstellar neutrals are taken into account. At a heliocentric distance of 1 AU, the solar wind data from OMNI, STEREO A and B during the period between 2010 and 2017 are used as the inner boundary conditions to drive the simulation. The simulation results showed that the solar wind gradually merges into large-scale structures as the radial distance increases, consistent with observations by New Horizons. After propagating into the inner heliosheath, the shocks are fully developed and the corresponding pressure pulses roughly agree with the observations by Voyager 2 in the inner heliosheath. The arrival of the shocks beyond the heliopause is estimated and found to be consistent with the observed signatures of interstellar shocks by Voyager 1. The possible origins of interstellar shocks in the inner heliosheath are discussed based on the simulation.