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The purpose of this paper is to propose a research by design strategy, focusing on the generation of innovative climate adaptation solutions by utilizing the Design Thinking Process. The proposed strategy has been developed and tested in a research and design studio, which took place in 2020 at a Master of Architecture degree program in the Netherlands. The studios focused on the sparsely populated, high flood risk region of the Lake District, UK. The Lake District faces urgent climate change challenges that demand effective solutions. On the other hand, the area is a UNESCO heritage site, characterized by massive tourism and tending towards museumification (sic). Three indicative design research projects were selected to illustrate the proposed research by design strategy. The results reveal that this strategy facilitates the iterative research by design process and hence offers a systematic approach to convert the threats of climate change into opportunities by unraveling the potentials of the study area. The findings lay the groundwork for more systematic studies on research by design as an effective strategy for climate change adaptation design. Beyond the local case, the results contribute to the critical theories on climate adaptation design and research by design methodologies.

Flooding is one of the most dangerous natural hazards worldwide, causing widespread economic damage in coastal areas, thousands of deaths and injuries, and displacing millions of people every year. Individual homeowners can take a number of measures to reduce potential flood damage to their homes, but few people in flood-prone areas invest in these measures. This thesis examines several factors that could explain the lack of voluntary investment, including moral hazard, risk misperceptions and bounded rationality. Furthermore, this thesis investigates various incentives to stimulate investments in damage-reducing measures, such as insurance incentives, risk communication in virtual reality and social norm-nudges. This is achieved by experimental economics methods: lab experiments with students, online experiments in surveys with homeowners in flood-prone areas, as well as an economic experiment using a virtual reality experience.

Flooding is one of the most dangerous natural hazards worldwide, causing widespread economic damage in coastal areas, thousands of deaths and injuries, and displacing millions of people every year. Individual homeowners can take a number of measures to reduce potential flood damage to their homes, but few people in flood-prone areas invest in these measures. This thesis examines several factors that could explain the lack of voluntary investment, including moral hazard, risk misperceptions and bounded rationality. Furthermore, this thesis investigates various incentives to stimulate investments in damage-reducing measures, such as insurance incentives, risk communication in virtual reality and social norm-nudges. This is achieved by experimental economics methods: lab experiments with students, online experiments in surveys with homeowners in flood-prone areas, as well as an economic experiment using a virtual reality experience.

Climate change and changing land use challenge the livability and flood safety of Dutch cities. One option cities have to become more climate-proof is to increase infiltration of stormwater into soil through permeable pavement and thus reduce discharge of stormwater into sewer systems. To analyze the market receptivity for permeable pavements in the Netherlands, this article focuses on the perception of end-users towards key transition factors in the infrastructure transformation processes. Market receptivity was studied on two levels: (1) on the system level, by analyzing 20 key factors in the Dutch urban water sector that enable wider application of permeable pavements, and (2) on the technology level, by analyzing 12 key factors that explain why decision makers select permeable pavements or not. Results show that trust between cooperating partners was perceived as the system level key factor that needs to be improved most to facilitate the wider uptake of permeable pavements. Additionally, the association of end-users with permeable pavement, particularly their willingness to apply these technologies and their understanding of what kinds of benefits these technologies could bring, was regarded the most important receptivity attribute. On the technology level, the reliability of permeable pavement was regarded as the most important end-user consideration for selecting this technology.

Many delta cities worldwide are dealing with the same kind of problems: rising of the sea level, land subsidence, scarcity of land and illegal housing. Multiple land use is one of these solutions that will help to reduce flooding and scarcity of land. An example of multiple land use is a floating community. This research used Semarang as location for the research into the social acceptance of floating houses. The data in this study were obtained through literature study and survey among inhabitants. The social acceptance of the inhabitants is determined with 35 respondents that have been done in the area of Kemijen, Semarang. In order to determine the social acceptance of floating houses, there are elements used, namely: knowledge of floating houses, perception of risk, urgency, implementation, chose for a floating house, requirements, positive and negative elements, self-sufficient system. According to the result of research, the social acceptance of the inhabitants is quite low, but there is potential because they see positive elements in a floating house. Low social acceptance is caused by the fact that the concept of floating houses are not well known in this community. With raising awareness on the challenges and informing the community on the possibilities on floating infrastructure will result in higher social acceptance.

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Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepares for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning and private damage reduction, e.g. via building precautionary measures, and disaster response. However, knowledge about damage-reducing measures is scarce and often fragmented since based on case studies. For instance, it is believed that private precautionary measures, like shielding with water shutters or building fortification, are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels. However, some of these measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during the extreme flood event in 2002 in Germany. This review analyses potentials of land-use planning and private flood precautionary measures as components of adaptation strategies for global change. Focus is on their implementation, their damage-reducing effects and their potential contribution to address projected changes in flood risk, particularly in developed countries.

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This paper demonstrates a framework for producing probabilistic flood risk estimates, focusing on two sections of the Rhine River. We used an ensemble of six (bias-corrected) regional climate model (RCM) future simulations to create a 3000-year time-series through resampling. This was complemented with 12 global climate model (GCM)-based future time-series, constructed by resampling observed time-series of daily precipitation and temperature and modifying these to represent future climate conditions using an advanced delta change approach. We used the resampled time-series as input in the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV)-96 to simulate daily discharge and extreme discharge quantiles for return periods up to 3000 years. To convert extreme discharges to estimates of flood damage and risk, we coupled a simple inundation model with a damage model. We then fitted probability density functions (PDFs) for the RCM, GCM, and combined ensembles. The framework allows for the assessment of the probability distribution of flood risk under future climate scenario conditions. Because this paper represents a demonstration of a methodological framework, the absolute figures should not be used in decision making at this time.

This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web-based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a "negativity bias." Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens' attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

This study investigates the processes that mediate the effects of framing flood risks on people's information needs. Insight into the effects of risk frames is important for developing balanced risk communication that explains both risks and benefits of living near water. The research was inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model and related models. In a web-based survey, respondents (n = 1,457) were randomly assigned to one of three communication frames or a control frame (experimental conditions). Each frame identically explained flood risk and additionally refined the message by emphasizing climate change, the quality of flood risk management, or the amenities of living near water. We tested the extent to which risk perceptions, trust, and affective responses mediate the framing effects on information need. As expected, the frames on average resulted in higher information need than the control frame. Attempts to lower fear appeal by stressing safety or amenities instead of climate change were marginally successful, a phenomenon that is known as a “negativity bias.” Framing effects were mediated by negative attributes (risk perception and negative affect) but not by positive attributes (trust and positive affect). This finding calls for theoretical refinement. Practically, communication messages will be more effective when they stimulate risk perceptions and evoke negative affect. However, arousal of fear may have unwanted side effects. For instance, fear arousal could lead to lower levels of trust in risk management among citizens. Regular monitoring of citizens’ attitudes is important to prevent extreme levels of distrust or cynicism.

Op woensdag 20 juni 2012 belegde het Netwerk Land en Water een studiemiddag over het thema ‘Nieuwe wegen in de hydrologie’. Dit thema is ingegeven vanuit de verwachting dat door klimaatverandering extreme neerslaggebeurtenissen frequenter zullen optreden, wat kan leiden tot grote wateroverlast. Om voor deze gebeurtenissen adequate oplossingen te vinden zijn nieuwe wegen in de hydrologie noodzakelijk, zowel in de wetenschap als in de aan het beleid gekoppelde praktijk. Op deze middag werden in drie lezingen enkele wetenschappelijke ontwikkelingen in de hydrologie voor het voetlicht gebracht: - Stedelijke neerslagmetingen, door Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis (TuD); - Extreme neerslag en afvoerprocessen in het stroomgebied van de Hupselse Beek, door Claudia Brauer (WUR); - Operationele monitoring van hydrologische processen op verschillende schalen, door Henk Pelgrum van eLEAF

Er zijn tools ontwikkeld waarmee ontwerpers, deskundigen en belanghebbenden samen conceptuele ontwerpen kunnen opstellen om te helpen de gebouwde omgeving waterrobuust en klimaatbestendig te maken. De Climate Adaptation App helpt deelnemers een long list van mogelijke maatregelen op te stellen. Vervolgens kan met de Adaptation Support Tool worden geschetst waar welke maatregelen getroffen kunnen worden en wordt direct berekend hoe doelmatig ze naar verwachting zullen zijn (rekenen en tekenen). Water- en klimaatopgaven worden op (kosten)effectieve wijze ingevuld en de toegevoegde waarde van ingrepen voor de leefbaarheid gemaximaliseerd. Deze werkwijze en tools zijn met succes toegepast in diverse ontwerpworkshops.

The Amazon has recently been portrayed as a resilient forest system based on quick recovery of biomass after human disturbance. Yet with climate change, the frequency of droughts and wildfires may increase, implying that parts of this massive forest may shift into a savanna state. Although the Amazon basin seems quite homogeneous, 14% is seasonally inundated. In my thesis I combine analyses of satellite data with field measurements and experiments to assess the role of floodplain ecosystems in shaping the resilience of Amazonian forests. First, I analyse tree cover distribution for the whole Amazon to reveal that savannas are relatively more common on floodplains. This suggests that compared to uplands, floodplains spend more time in the savanna state. Also, floodplain forests seem to have a tipping point at 1500 mm of annual rainfall in which forests may shift to savanna, whereas the tipping point for upland forests seems to be at 1000 mm of rainfall. Combining satellite and field measurements, I show that the higher frequency of savannas on floodplain ecosystems may be due to a higher sensitivity to fire. After a forest fire, floodplains lose more tree cover and soil fertility, and recover more slowly than uplands (chapter 2). In floodplains of the Negro river, I studied the recovery of blackwater forests after repeated fires, using field data on tree basal area, species richness, seed availability, and herbaceous cover. Results indicate that repeated fires may easily trap blackwater floodplains in an open-vegetation state, due the sudden loss of forest resilience after a second fire event (chapter 3). Analyses of the soil and tree composition of burnt floodplain forests, reveal that a first fire is the onset of the loss of soil fertility that intensifies while savanna trees dominate the tree community. A tree compositional shift happens within four decades, possibly accelerated by fast nutrient leaching. The rapid savannization of floodplain forests after fire implies that certain mechanisms such as environmental filtering may favor the recruitment of savanna trees over forest trees (chapter 4). In chapter 5, I experimentally tested in the field the roles of dispersal limitation, and environmental filtering for tree recruitment in burnt floodplain forests. I combine inventories of seed availability in burnt sites with experiments using planted seeds and seedlings of six floodplain tree species. Repeated fires strongly reduce the availability of tree seeds, yet planted trees thrive despite degraded soils and high herbaceous cover. Moreover, degraded soils on twice burnt sites seem to limit the growth of most pioneer trees, but not of savanna trees with deeper roots. Our results suggest a limitation of forest trees to disperse into open burnt sites. The combined evidence presented in this thesis support the hypothesis that Amazonian forests on floodplains are less resilient than forests on uplands, and more likely to shift into a savanna state. The lower ability of floodplains to retain soil fertility and recover forest structure after fire, may accelerate the transition to savanna. I also present some evidence of dispersal limitation of floodplain forest trees. Broad-scale analyses of tree cover as a function of rainfall suggest that savannas are likely to expand first in floodplains if Amazonian climate becomes drier. Savanna expansion through floodplain ecosystems to the core of the Amazon may spread fragility from an unsuspected place.

Er zijn tools ontwikkeld waarmee ontwerpers, deskundigen en belanghebbenden samen conceptuele ontwerpen kunnen opstellen om te helpen de gebouwde omgeving waterrobuust en klimaatbestendig te maken. De Climate Adaptation App helpt deelnemers een long list van mogelijke maatregelen op te stellen. Vervolgens kan met de Adaptation Support Tool worden geschetst waar welke maatregelen getroffen kunnen worden en wordt direct berekend hoe doelmatig ze naar verwachting zullen zijn (rekenen en tekenen). Water- en klimaatopgaven worden op (kosten)effectieve wijze ingevuld en de toegevoegde waarde van ingrepen voor de leefbaarheid gemaximaliseerd. Deze werkwijze en tools zijn met succes toegepast in diverse ontwerpworkshops.

Op 26 en 27 augustus 2010 werd het stroomgebied van de Hupselse Beek getroffen door extreme neerslag: 160 mm in 24 uur (herhalingstijd: meer dan 1.000 jaar). Hierdoor steeg de afvoer in 22 uur van vier naar 5.000 liter per seconde. Door deze stortvloed in detail te onderzoeken, is meer inzicht ontstaan in de werking van stroomgebieden tijdens extreme situaties. Deze informatie kan gebruikt worden om modellen en hoogwatervoorspellingen te verbeteren

De berekende wateroverlast door klimaatverandering hangt af van de gebruikte herhalingstijd, het gebruikte KNMI-scenario en het zichtjaar. Uiteraard is de te verwachte wateroverlast voor 2100 hoger dan voor 2050. Het W-scenario geeft een grotere wateroverlast dan het W+-scenario. Overschrijdingskansen moeten volgens het Nationaal Bestuursakkoord Water landgebruikspecifiek worden toegepast. Resultaten voor deze studie kunnen daarvoor gebruikt worden. Een harde uitspraak over de hectares, waar wateroverlast zal optreden, kan alleen gegeven worden als hierbij vermeld wordt welke drempelwaarde in millimeter gebruikt wordt. Uitgaande van het W-scenario en T = 25, is een wateroverlast van meer dan 25 millimeter in 2050 op ongeveer 25.000 hectare te verwachten. Indien het criterium echter op tien millimeter wordt gesteld, zou een gebied van ongeveer 320.000 hectare met wateroverlast worden geconfronteerd

This paper presents the results of a survey of stakeholder and scientific expert judgments regarding the impacts of climate change on water management in The Netherlands in 2001. The main methodological findings were put into broader perspective by discussing the role of stakeholder and scientific expert judgment in the context of the Dutch national research programme 'Climate changes Spatial Planning' (CcSP) in the period 2001-2007. We focus on flood risks, and impacts on freshwater resources because they were mentioned most in the 2001 survey. For the flood risks, a high degree of consensus amongst stakeholders and scientific experts was discovered about knowledge, values and aims involved. This was not the case for the impacts of climate change on freshwater resources. The approach, chosen in 2001, enabled the researchers to explore the different opinions regarding the impacts of climate change. It appeared, however, very difficult to prioritize available adaptation options and to formulate cross-sectoral adaptation strategies. Within the CcSP programme, initiated after the 2001 survey, it can be observed that stakeholders become more involved in expert judgements about climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. The interaction between scientists and stakeholders is gradually shifting from a collaborative/consultative approach towards a real participatory approach in the research and design process of combined regional and sectoral adaptation strategies

De overstromingen in de Birmese Irrawaddy delta afgelopen mei en ontruiming van New Orleans in verband met orkaan Gustav in september maken ons nog een keer duidelijk hoe riskant bewoning van een deltaplan is. Delta's zijn zeer aantrekkelijk vanwege hun natuurlijke hulpbronnen, maar ook uitermate kwetsbaar. De Nijldelta loopt jaarlijks ruim 120 miljoen ton vers sediment mis vanwege de stroomopwaarts gelegen Aswan-dam

Rivieren zijn van nature dynamische systemen met sterk wisselende waterafvoeren. Doordat in het vroege voorjaar een extra hoeveelheid water door de rivieren stroomt, afkomstig van regenval of het smelten van sneeuw, komen periodiek grote oppervlaktes laaggelegen land onder water te staan. Leo Nagelkerke gaat in op de functie van deze vloedvlaktes voor vissen

Natural disasters are a growing concern around the globe. In the Netherlands, water has always played an important role as both friend and enemy. To quickly analyze and visualise possible disaster outcomes has been really difficult. In collaboration with engineering company Tauw we improved this modelling with an interdisciplinary team of GIS experts, High performance computing and real time visualisation. In a pilot for the city center of Groningen we developed a 3D version of flooding landscape maps (RUG, 2014) after modelling extreme rainfall. With a flooding landscape map you can see at a glance where water is going and where problem areas arise in case of extreme rainfall. Any municipality or county can thus quickly determine which measures are to be taken to prevent for example disruption to traffic or flooding damage to buildings.

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike heights under climate change uncertainty and new information in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a flood protection standard. Chapter 5 departs from expected cost minimisation, and applies the minimax regret decision criterion to identify maximum regret minimising flood risk management strategies under the arrival of new climate impact information. The thesis concludes that the modelling of new climate-related information may improve an economic analysis of flood risk management strategies

Het klimaat verandert en de zeespiegel stijgt. Daarover bestaat geen twijfel, hoewel er nog wel onzekerheid bestaat over de snelheid van de veranderingen, en soms over de precieze richting daarvan. Ondanks deze onzekerheden is het verstandig te anticiperen op wat komen gaat. Daar zijn we in Nederland dan ook al volop mee bezig. In de afgelopen jaren is in diverse projecten en programma’s zoals Kennis voor Klimaat, het Deltaprogramma en STOWA/Deltaproof, veel kennis opgedaan over mogelijke strategieën om ons aan te passen aan de veranderende klimatologische omstandigheden. Maar hoe zien dergelijke adaptatiestrategieën er precies uit en hoe kom je tot een concrete invulling? Dit rapport geeft een overzicht van concrete maatregelen die kunnen worden ingezet bij adaptatie in verband met de toenemende overstromingsrisico’s. Het rapport richt zich vooral op wat gemeenten, provincies en waterschappen kunnen doen.

Het klimaat verandert en de zeespiegel stijgt. Daarover bestaat geen twijfel, hoewel er nog wel onzekerheid bestaat over de snelheid van de veranderingen, en soms over de precieze richting daarvan. Ondanks deze onzekerheden is het verstandig te anticiperen op wat komen gaat. Daar zijn we in Nederland dan ook al volop mee bezig. In de afgelopen jaren is in diverse projecten en programma’s zoals Kennis voor Klimaat, het Deltaprogramma en STOWA/Deltaproof, veel kennis opgedaan over mogelijke strategieën om ons aan te passen aan de veranderende klimatologische omstandigheden. Maar hoe zien dergelijke adaptatiestrategieën er precies uit en hoe kom je tot een concrete invulling? Dit rapport geeft een overzicht van concrete maatregelen die kunnen worden ingezet bij adaptatie in verband met de toenemende overstromingsrisico’s. Het rapport richt zich vooral op wat gemeenten, provincies en waterschappen kunnen doen.

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike heights under climate change uncertainty and new information in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a flood protection standard. Chapter 5 departs from expected cost minimisation, and applies the minimax regret decision criterion to identify maximum regret minimising flood risk management strategies under the arrival of new climate impact information. The thesis concludes that the modelling of new climate-related information may improve an economic analysis of flood risk management strategies

Natural disasters are a growing concern around the globe. In the Netherlands, water has always played an important role as both friend and enemy. To quickly analyze and visualise possible disaster outcomes has been really difficult. In collaboration with engineering company Tauw we improved this modelling with an interdisciplinary team of GIS experts, High performance computing and real time visualisation. In a pilot for the city center of Groningen we developed a 3D version of flooding landscape maps (RUG, 2014) after modelling extreme rainfall. With a flooding landscape map you can see at a glance where water is going and where problem areas arise in case of extreme rainfall. Any municipality or county can thus quickly determine which measures are to be taken to prevent for example disruption to traffic or flooding damage to buildings.

Historische reconstructie van het landschap in de regio Oostburg; met behulp van luchtfoto's komen oude greppels aan het licht; kaartfragmenten van voormalig getijdengebied en vernieuwd kwartair-geologisch onderzoek in het kustgebied werpen nieuwe gezichtspunten op het bestaan van getijdengeulen