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We study the effect of population change on subjective wellbeing (SWB) using over 100,000 observations from behavioral risk factor surveillance system representative of 392 US counties. SWB correlates higher with population change (0.4) than with county-level crime (-0.25) and income (0.2). The relative ecological strong effect size holds in regressions controlling for person-level and county-level predictors of SWB-population change is one of the strongest ecological predictors of SWB. While ecological variables have a smaller effect on individual SWB than person-level variables, their total combined population effect is large. This is only the second study on the effect of population change of a city/county on its residents' happiness. Such a gap in the literature is remarkable—we call for more research in this area and present directions for future research. As in any nonexperimental study, results are not causal. And results may not generalize beyond the US population studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rational matching of urban land and population has become an important prerequisite for sustainable urban development. In this paper, the traditional urban land scale elasticity model was improved, and combined with the gravity model, the spatial interaction between land expansion and population change in 618 cities in China during the period 2006–2021 was investigated. The geographical detector method was used to reveal what drives them. The main results were as follows: (1) China's urban land expansion rate was 1.83 times faster than the population growth rate during 2006–2021. After the implementation of the New-type Urbanisation Plan in 2014, the ratio of land expansion rate to population growth rate dropped from 2.46 to 1.12. (2) Among the six interaction types identified, land rapid expansion is the most significant, accounting for 41.59% of urban samples. (3) The geographical detector method found that the indicators of urban development rights such as the level of administrative hierarchy and the ratio of fiscal revenue to fiscal expenditure were the main factors affecting land expansion and that economic indicators such as gross domestic product and employment opportunities dominated population change. Fortunately, the intervention role of urban development rights has declined, and the constraints of market mechanisms, resources and environment have gradually become the dominant factors in urban land expansion and population change. These findings provide a theoretical basis for alleviating the human–land contradiction and achieving sustainable urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the utility of data on active and vacant residential addresses to inform local and timely monitoring and assessments of how areas impacted by wildfires and extreme weather events more broadly lose (or not) and subsequently recover (or not) their populations. Provided by the U.S. Postal Service to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and other users, these data are an underutilized and potentially valuable tool to study population change in disaster-affected areas for at least three reasons. First, as they are aggregated to the ZIP + 4 level, they permit highly local portraits of residential and, indirectly, of population change. Second, they are tabulated on a quarterly basis starting in 2010 through the most recent quarter, thereby allowing for timely assessments than other data sources. Third, one mechanism of population change—namely, underlying changes in residential occupancies and vacancies—is explicit in the data. Our findings show that these data are sufficient for detecting signals of residential and, indirectly, of population change during and after particularly damaging wildfires; however, there is also noticeable variation across cases that requires further investigations into, for example, the guidance the U.S. Postal Services provides its postal offices and carriers to classify addresses as vacant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article surveys the growing field of political demography, which explores the political consequences of structural population change. It underscores the importance of integrating demography and political sociology research to better understand the complex and nuanced relationship between demography and political dynamics. The existing research demonstrates profound and multifaceted impacts of demographic shifts on the political landscape, with different demographic factors having distinct political consequences. Notably, population composition and distribution tend to hold greater political significance than sheer population size and growth. Furthermore, while more research is needed, the existing work suggests that the effect of structural demographic factors is neither inevitable nor without limit; rather, the political consequences of demographic change often exhibit nonlinear patterns and interact with prevailing socioeconomic and institutional contexts. As demographic shifts continue to unfold globally, political demography stands as a promising and enlightening area of research that merits further inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing uncertainty of urban development, urban shrinkage in the rapid urbanization process in China has become increasingly serious. While many studies have explored urban shrinkage from the economic and population perspectives, they often ignore the essence of the phased evolution of economic and population factors. Thus, this study introduces the theory of economic resilience into the field of urban shrinkage and constructs a theoretical method for identifying urban shrinkage by integrating economic resilience and population change to reveal the evolutionary trajectory of regional urban growth and shrinkage. The results show that urban economic resilience and population change in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region (SSIMR) exhibit strong volatility, highlighting the importance of conducting urban shrinkage studies within specific crisis disturbance scenarios. In the context of the "new normal of the economy", the economic resilience of cities in the SSIMR has significantly declined, and the problem of economic recession is gradually intensifying. The population change trend of cities in the SSIMR is relatively stable, with population loss being a common problem in urban development in the area and its scope and intensity increasing daily. Urban development in the SSIMR is evolving from global growth to widespread shrinkage, with 56.67% of the cities experiencing relative shrinkage, showing a spatial pattern of "western growth–eastern shrinkage". Factors such as the agglomeration effect, industrial structure, and policy system collectively shape the evolution of urban growth and shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe equity of public resources triggered by city shrinkage is a global challenge. Significantly, the impact of city shrinkage on the allocation of health service resources needs to be better understood. This study explores the impact of population change on government investment and health service delivery in shrinking cities.Data and methodUsing data from China’s Urban Statistical Yearbook (2010–2020), we employ regression discontinuity (RD) and fixed-effect models to examine the causal relationship between city shrinkage and health service provision.ResultShrinking cities show significant disparities in health resources, particularly in bed numbers (−1,167.58, p

Understanding and managing the response of marine ecosystems to human pressures including climate change requires reliable large-scale and multidecadal information on the state of key populations. These populations include the pelagic animals that support ecosystem services including carbon export and fisheries. The use of research vessels to collect information using scientific nets and acoustics is being replaced with technologies such as autonomous moorings, gliders, and meta-genetics. Paradoxically, these newer methods sample pelagic populations at ever-smaller spatial scales, and ecological change might go undetected in the time needed to build up large-scale, long time series. These global-scale issues are epitomised by Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which is concentrated in rapidly warming areas, exports substantial quantities of carbon and supports an expanding fishery, but opinion is divided on how resilient their stocks are to climatic change. Based on a workshop of 137 krill experts we identify the challenges of observing climate change impacts with shifting sampling methods and suggest three tractable solutions. These are to: improve overlap and calibration of new with traditional methods; improve communication to harmonise, link and scale up the capacity of new but localised sampling programs; and expand opportunities from other research platforms and data sources, including the fishing industry. Contrasting evidence for both change and stability in krill stocks illustrates how the risks of false negative and false positive diagnoses of change are related to the temporal and spatial scale of sampling. Given the uncertainty about how krill are responding to rapid warming we recommend a shift towards a fishery management approach that prioritises monitoring of stock status and can adapt to variability and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The study examined the number of deaths from nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in Australia for the fifty years from 1971 to 2021. Australia has the highest reported incidences of NMSC in the world. Deaths from NMSC have been recorded since 1971 and have increased more than five-fold in the 50 years to 2021. There is no sign of a reduction in the increasing incidence of deaths from NMSC. Most deaths from NMSC are due to cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). It is estimated that 1 in 260 cutaneous SCCs will metastasize and cause death. The number of non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) removed from Australians is increasing every year. The number of deaths from NMSC is increasing but so is the population. However, the population has greatly changed with many dark-skinned people migrating to Australia. These people are at low risk for skin cancer even if they live all their lives in Australia. The susceptible population is the rest of the population. The death rate from NMSC for the entire population and susceptible populations since 1971 is examined in this article. Materials and methods: Data on the Australian population were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Every five years a census is held in Australia and detailed information of the population is provided. The ABS also provided yearly data on the causes of death in Australia. Results: The total population increased from 12,755,638 in 1971 to 25,738,140 in 2021. However, the susceptible population increased by far less, from 12,493,780 to 19,773,783. The number of deaths from NMSC increased from 143 to 765. The crude death rate for the susceptible population increased from 1.1 per 100,000 to 3.9 per 100,000. The crude death rate in the susceptible population aged 65 or more increased from 9.4 to 18.2 per 100,000. Conclusion: Deaths from NMSC are increasing despite public health campaigns to prevent skin cancer. According to current trends, NMSC will cause more deaths than melanoma in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of space-for-time substitution assumes that the responses of species or communities to land-use change over space represents how they will respond to that same change over time. Space-for-time substitution is commonly used in both ecology and conservation, but whether the assumption produces reliable insights remains inconclusive. Here, we tested space-for-time substitution using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Global Forest Change (GFC) to compare the effects of landscape-scale forest cover on bird richness and abundance over time and space, for 25 space-time comparisons. Each comparison consisted of a landscape that experienced at least 20% forest loss over 19 years (temporal site) and a set of 15-19 landscapes (spatial sites) that represented the same forest cover gradient over space in 2019 as experienced over time in their corresponding temporal site. Across the 25 comparisons, the observed responses of forest and open-habitat birds to forest cover over time generally aligned with their responses to forest cover over space, but with comparatively higher variability in the magnitude and direction of effect across the 25 temporal slopes than across the 25 spatial slopes. On average, the mean differences between the spatial and temporal slopes across the 25 space-time comparisons frequently overlapped with zero, suggesting that the spatial slopes are generally informative of the temporal slopes. However, we observed high variability around these mean differences, indicating that a single spatial slope is not strongly predictive of its corresponding temporal slope. We suggest that our results may be explained by annual variability in other relevant environmental factors that combine to produce complex effects on population abundances over time that are not easily captured by snapshots in space. While not being a 1:1 proxy, measuring bird responses to changes in habitat amount in space provides an idea on how birds might be expected to eventually equilibrate to similar changes in habitat amount over time. Further, analyses such as this could be potentially used to screen for cases of regional space-time mismatches where population-limiting factors other than habitat could be playing a more important role in the population trends observed there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, archaeology not only helps us to understand the past, but also seems to be an appropriate tool to understand the present. It reflects important social issues (migration, social inequalities, climate change). Based on historical events, we outline the main interactions that occur when different ethnic groups meet. Questions about population change or cultural shift are answered using the methods of anthropology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rational matching of urban land and population has become an important prerequisite for sustainable urban development. In this paper, the traditional urban land scale elasticity model was improved, and combined with the gravity model, the spatial interaction between land expansion and population change in 618 cities in China during the period 2006–2021 was investigated. The geographical detector method was used to reveal what drives them. The main results were as follows: (1) China’s urban land expansion rate was 1.83 times faster than the population growth rate during 2006–2021. After the implementation of the New-type Urbanisation Plan in 2014, the ratio of land expansion rate to population growth rate dropped from 2.46 to 1.12. (2) Among the six interaction types identified, land rapid expansion is the most significant, accounting for 41.59% of urban samples. (3) The geographical detector method found that the indicators of urban development rights such as the level of administrative hierarchy and the ratio of fiscal revenue to fiscal expenditure were the main factors affecting land expansion and that economic indicators such as gross domestic product and employment opportunities dominated population change. Fortunately, the intervention role of urban development rights has declined, and the constraints of market mechanisms, resources and environment have gradually become the dominant factors in urban land expansion and population change. These findings provide a theoretical basis for alleviating the human–land contradiction and achieving sustainable urban development.

• It evaluates employment and economic growth in the Indian labour market. • It decomposes the GDP Per Capita growth into employment, output per worker, and population change. • Different exist between labour force entering and employed in the job market. • The major contributor to value-added is output per worker & inter-sectoral shifts. • Better quality of jobs across sectors with overall economic development. This study analyses the changing contours of employment and economic growth in the Indian labour market over four decades (1983–2019-20) using the NSSO-EUS & PLFS datasets. Here, the Shapley Decomposition methodology (as developed by World Bank) has been used to decompose the per capita income growth into changes in employment, changes in output per worker, and the population change components at the aggregate level and by sectors for the Indian labour market. The study unfolds a pattern of inter-sectoral variations in growth in income and employment since pre and post-reform periods. The estimate shows that the major contributor to the value-added is output per worker and inter-sectoral shifts. Further, despite the output growth in the industrial and service sector, it didn't reflect in absorbing the labour force entering the job market. The aggregate employment and income growth pattern entails proper policy intervention in the Indian labour market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endemic Hawaiian forest birds have experienced dramatic population declines. The Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Refuge Complex) was established for the conservation of endangered forest birds and their habitats. Surveys have been conducted at two units of the Refuge Complex to monitor forest bird populations and their response to management actions. We analyzed survey data from 1987 to 2019 at the Hakalau Forest Unit (HFU) and from 1995 to 2019 at the Kona Forest Unit (KFU). We analyzed three strata at HFU: open-forest, closed-forest, and afforested-pasture, and two strata at KFU: upper (>1,524 m elevation) and lower (<1,524 m). In all years, 'i'iwi Vestiaria coccinea, 'apapane Himatione sanguinea, and Hawai'i 'amakihi Chlorodrepanis virens virens were the most abundant species at HFU. Three endangered forest bird species, Hawai'i 'ākepa Loxops coccineus, 'alawī Loxops mana (also known as Hawai'i creeper) and 'akiapōlā'au Hemignathus wilsoni, had much lower densities. The most abundant species at KFU was 'apapane, followed by Hawai'i 'amakihi at much lower densities. We found a continuation of several trends observed in previous analyses at HFU up to 2012, with most species' trends upward in afforested-pasture stratum, stable in the open-forest stratum, and downward in the closed-forest stratum. However, more species were showing downward trends in all three strata during the most recent decade. Results were mixed at KFU, with most species' trends downward in the upper stratum and upward in the lower stratum. Populations of endangered species were either locally extirpated at KFU or in numbers too low to reliably estimate population abundance. The Refuge Complex is important for conservation of forest birds on Hawai'i Island. Our results show that HFU supports the majority of three endangered forest bird species. Threats to forest birds at the Refuge Complex appear to be having a negative impact. These threats include habitat loss, disease, feral ungulates, and nonnative predators. Continuing and enhancing management actions, such as forest restoration and removal of invasive species, could help mitigate these impacts and allow the Refuge Complex to remain a key site for forest bird conservation in Hawai'i. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordination between population growth and built-up land expansion is a major challenge for regional sustainable development. This paper proposed a dual indicator approach, which consists of the ratio of the built-up land expansion rate to population growth rate (HLEC) and the change rate of the built-up area per capita (BPR), and explored the dynamics of the human–land coordination relationship in mainland China using gridded population data and remotely sensed land-cover data. Four gridded population datasets (GPWv4, LandScan, WorldPop, and China gridded population datasets) were evaluated using county-level census data from 2000 and 2010, which showed that WorldPop had the highest correlation with the census data, CASpop had the smallest RMSE, and LandScan had the worst performance. The population of mainland China continued to rise from 2000 to 2020, but the average annual growth rate declined significantly. The built-up land expanded across China, with northwestern China experiencing the fastest growth and the eastern coastal regions experiencing a slower rate of expansion. The HLEC was 5.83, and the BPR increased by approximately 50%, indicating that the rate of population growth is lagging behind the rate of built-up land expansion in most regions, with the exception of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai. Topographical and socio-economic factors have nonlinear effects on the coordination state of the human–land relationship. This approach can be used in areas with no change in population and can better characterize the human–land relationship and its coordination dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In the process of China's modernization, promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities is a major strategic issue and it has now also become a worldwide issue. This study uses the coupling model to validate the coupling relationship between China's land-use net carbon flux and economic growth and population change during 2009–2017. The study for the first time draws the conclusion that the coupling degree among the three is getting lower, the correlation is gradually weaker, and the independent relationship is becoming more and more prominent. Utilizing the Tapio decoupling model, we obtained the weak decoupling conclusion that the economic growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the land-use net carbon flux, while negative decoupling of sprawl is where the rate of population growth is less than the rate of net land-use carbon flux growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Tikrit University for Humanities is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper analyses the consequences on demographic changes observed in the municipalities of Abruzzo region after the earthquake of L'Aquila in 2009. Relying on Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) data on the population in the municipalities, we aim to understand how population growth changed after the earthquake, analysing population dynamics both in the municipalities affected by the earthquake and in the other municipalities of the Abruzzo region. We apply a spatial regression model to understand the associations between population growth, the earthquake, and some demographic and economic variables, taking into account the spatial autocorrelation. Our findings confirm the importance of space and the close association of the population dynamics after the earthquake with the population age structure, both in the pre‐existing situation and in the subsequent dynamics. Population trends in the Abruzzo region were closely associated with the pre‐existing vulnerabilities. The effect of the earthquake was strong in the crater municipalities in the period immediately after the shock, while it petered out over time. A destructive earthquake implies a tremendous shock, however, in places that are already suffering from demographic, social, and economic fragility, pre‐existing factors can act equally or even more strongly on the population dynamics in the medium term. Hence, in the medium period, the characteristics of the population and socio‐economic context are stronger than in the short one, and also the effect that space and territorial contiguities have on these and other nonobservable variables is stronger than in the short period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and managing the response of marine ecosystems to human pressures including climate change requires reliable large-scale and multi-decadal information on the state of key populations. These populations include the pelagic animals that support ecosystem services including carbon export and fisheries. The use of research vessels to collect information using scientific nets and acoustics is being replaced with technologies such as autonomous moorings, gliders, and meta-genetics. Paradoxically, these newer methods sample pelagic populations at ever-smaller spatial scales, and ecological change might go undetected in the time needed to build up large-scale, long time series. These global-scale issues are epitomised by Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which is concentrated in rapidly warming areas, exports substantial quantities of carbon and supports an expanding fishery, but opinion is divided on how resilient their stocks are to climatic change. Based on a workshop of 137 krill experts we identify the challenges of observing climate change impacts with shifting sampling methods and suggest three tractable solutions. These are to: improve overlap and calibration of new with traditional methods; improve communication to harmonise, link and scale up the capacity of new but localised sampling programs; and expand opportunities from other research platforms and data sources, including the fishing industry. Contrasting evidence for both change and stability in krill stocks illustrates how the risks of false negative and false positive diagnoses of change are related to the temporal and spatial scale of sampling. Given the uncertainty about how krill are responding to rapid warming we recommend a shift towards a fishery management approach that prioritises monitoring of stock status and can adapt to variability and change.

[Objective] The objective of this study was to scientifically examine the coupling rule, spatial characteristics, and formation mechanism of population and built-up area changes under the differential population flow in county units, and improve the multi-scale and multi-level allocation mechanism for the intensive use of land resources. [Methods] Taking the urban agglomeration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the study area and using GIS spatial analysis and econometric models, this study explored the pattern, coupling relationship, and driving mechanism of population density change in the built-up areas at the county level. [Results] The study found that: (1) From 2009 to 2018, population of 61% of the areas in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region decreased. The population growth was concentrated in peripheral districts of Beijing and Tianjin and municipal districts of Hebei Province. Meanwhile, the corridor between Beijing and Tianjin and the central urban areas of prefecture-level cities in Hebei were the high-growth areas of the built-up areas in the region, and the growth rate of the built-up areas of both Beijing and Tianjin slowed down significantly. (2) Population density in the built-up areas of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region declined by 323 people per square kilometer, and substantial decline areas were concentrated in counties in Hebei Province. The coupling relationship between population and built-up area changes was dominated by the pattern of “shrinkage and extensive” type from 2009 to 2018, which increased pressure on land resource allocation. (3) Population flow and industrial development model significantly influenced population density change in the built-up areas, but the increase of urbanization rate did not exhibit a significant effect on land use efficiency. [Conclusion] The relationship change between the populations and built-up areas of county-level units in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is significantly different, and the pressure of intensive use of the built-up areas in counties surrounding central cities, especially located in the central and southern plain farming areas of Hebei Province is increasing. Therefore, it’s urgent to innovate the multi-scale coordination mechanism of provinces, prefectural cities and counties, and optimize the multi-level policy system for reusing idle land in urban-rural areas.

Although the global population continues to increase, the total fertility rate in many high-income countries (HICs) is below replacement, a trend apparent over several decades. The timing and pace of this change will shape the age distribution in these countries, leading to an increasing proportion of older people. The well-established links of the "demographic transition" between improving female education and improved access to contraception continue to drive down the fertility rates in low-/middle-income countries. However, changes in the age distribution will not be as marked as in HICs in the coming decades. These relationships may now be changing in some HICs with greater prosperity at both the personal (in some sectors of society) and national levels, linked to an increase in the total fertility rates despite continuing trends toward older age at first birth. Key drivers in these countries include improved provision of free/low-cost childcare, paid parental leave, and higher paternal contributions to childcare. However, there is also an increase in the number of women who do not have children or who may be unable to complete their family plans. Coronavirus disease 2019 and environmental factors, including the increasing prevalence of obesity, add to pressures on the fertility rates. Variable knowledge of the realities of female reproductive aging, particularly by men, is also a contributing factor, and this complex mix has fueled the increase in the number of elective egg freezing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationally relieving the population of urban centers in large cities, such as megacities and supercities, is one of the current goals of population development in China. The fringe area of a large city is a potential area to undertake the population of the central area. Studying the relationship between the population and the built environment in this area can help urban planners formulate targeted construction strategies to attract the population of the city center to move to the fringe areas. This paper takes the fringe areas of Wuhan in 2010 and 2020 as its specific research object and puts forward the "5D" index system of built environments that affects the spatial distribution of population based on population data and built environment data. The OLS model is used to screen the influencing factors. This paper analyzes the correlation between population and built environment using a multi-scale geographic weighted regression model as well. According to the results of the regression analysis combined with the development and construction of the fringe areas of remote urban areas in Wuhan over the past 20 years, some suggestions are put forward for the planning and construction of remote urban areas. The results show that the "5D" index system of the built environment covers the influencing factors of the spatial distribution of the population. MGWR reveals the correlation between the influencing factors and the spatial distribution of population in the marginal areas on the global scale and the local scale, respectively, which provides a clear direction for the development of planning and construction to improve the attractiveness of the non-central areas to the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the best studied components of the Southern Ocean food web, Pygoscelis penguins serve as an important window into the larger marine ecosystem, but the patchiness and heterogeneity of the census data available have made it difficult to assess trends in a policy-accessible way. Here we introduce a Pygoscelis penguin-specific biodiversity index, the 'Penguindex,' using the framework of the Living Planet Index (LPI), distilling 40 year population trends of pygoscelid penguins for the first time into a single pan-Antarctic indicator for use by policymakers. We also calculate species- and region-specific indices from which discrete eras of population dynamics can be identified. These indices, similar to the LPI itself, do not provide estimates of changes in absolute abundance of species but, instead, reflect comparable population trends and the relative magnitude of these changes. We find that the Adélie Penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) index was relatively stable across the Antarctic since 1980, with declines in regional indices across the Antarctic Peninsula region being contrasted by increases in regional indices for the Ross Sea and East Antarctica. The Chinstrap Penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica) index across the Antarctic declined by 61%. In stark contrast, the index for Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua) has increased seven-fold. Our analysis also identifies several marked eras of regional pygoscelid population change that may help identify key mechanistic drivers. We expect that the Penguindex will act as a useful reference tool for policymakers and hope that, by following this example, other taxonomic groups in the Antarctic might be tracked using the Living Planet Index framework. Importantly, our development of the Penguindex should facilitate the much-needed integration of Antarctic data into global biodiversity monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hurricanes have proven to be one of the most deadly and costly natural hazards in the Gulf and Atlantic coast regions of the United States. Looming climate change and increasing population in coastal areas means these hazards could become even more devastating in the future. This paper first develops estimates of areas most impacted by hurricane flooding and wind damage and then assesses the generalised patterns of demographic change in those at‐risk locations, disaggregating by both race and age to account for the complex shifts in demographic composition that have occurred over the past five decades. We find evidence of racial, ethnic, and age disparities in exposure to hurricane flooding and wind impacts. Our results highlight not only the uneven burden of risk placed on those unable or unwilling to move, but also the structural privilege that enables the white population to remain in place, even in the face of increased hurricane damage risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In south San Francisco Bay, former salt ponds now managed as wildlife habitat support large populations of breeding waterbirds. In 2006, the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project began the process of converting 50% to 90% of these managed pond habitats into tidal marsh. We compared American Avocet (Recurvirostra americana) and Black-necked Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) abundance in south San Francisco Bay before (2001) and after approximately 1,300 ha of managed ponds were breached to tidal action to begin tidal marsh restoration (2019). Over the 18-year period, American Avocet abundance declined 13.5% (2,765 in 2001 vs. 2,391 in 2019), and Black-necked Stilt abundance declined 30.0% (1,184 in 2001 vs. 828 in 2019). Forster’s Tern (Sterna forsteri) abundance was 2,675 birds in 2019. In 2019, managed ponds accounted for only 25.8% of suitable habitats, yet contained 53.9%, 38.6%, and 65.6% American Avocet, Black-necked Stilt, and Forster’s Tern observations, respectively. Conversely, tidal marsh and tidal mudflats accounted for 42.9% of suitable habitats, yet contained only 18.4%, 10.3%, and 19.8% of American Avocet, Black-necked Stilt, and Forster’s Tern observations, respectively. Using a separate nest-monitoring data set, we found that nest abundance in south San Francisco Bay declined for all three species from 2005–2019. Average annual nest abundance during 2017–2019 declined 53%, 71%, and 36%, for American Avocets, Back-necked Stilts, and Forster’s Terns, respectively, compared to 2005–2007. Loss of island nesting habitat as a result of tidal marsh conversion and an increasing population of predatory California Gulls (Larus californicus) are two potential causes of these declines. All three species established nesting colonies on newly constructed islands within remaining managed ponds; however, these new colonies did not make up for the steep declines observed at other historical nesting sites. For future wetland restoration, retaining more managed ponds that contain islands suitable for nesting may help to limit further declines in breeding waterbird populations.

With the increasing uncertainty of urban development, urban shrinkage in the rapid urbanization process in China has become increasingly serious. While many studies have explored urban shrinkage from the economic and population perspectives, they often ignore the essence of the phased evolution of economic and population factors. Thus, this study introduces the theory of economic resilience into the field of urban shrinkage and constructs a theoretical method for identifying urban shrinkage by integrating economic resilience and population change to reveal the evolutionary trajectory of regional urban growth and shrinkage. The results show that urban economic resilience and population change in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region (SSIMR) exhibit strong volatility, highlighting the importance of conducting urban shrinkage studies within specific crisis disturbance scenarios. In the context of the “new normal of the economy”, the economic resilience of cities in the SSIMR has significantly declined, and the problem of economic recession is gradually intensifying. The population change trend of cities in the SSIMR is relatively stable, with population loss being a common problem in urban development in the area and its scope and intensity increasing daily. Urban development in the SSIMR is evolving from global growth to widespread shrinkage, with 56.67% of the cities experiencing relative shrinkage, showing a spatial pattern of “western growth–eastern shrinkage”. Factors such as the agglomeration effect, industrial structure, and policy system collectively shape the evolution of urban growth and shrinkage.

The number of non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) removed from Australians is increasing every year. The number of deaths from NMSC is increasing but so is the population. However, the population has greatly changed with many dark-skinned people migrating to Australia. These people are at low risk for skin cancer even if they live all their lives in Australia. The susceptible population is the rest of the population. The death rate from NMSC for the entire population and susceptible populations since 1971 is examined in this article. Materials and methods: Data on the Australian population were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Every five years a census is held in Australia and detailed information of the population is provided. The ABS also provided yearly data on the causes of death in Australia. Results: The total population increased from 12,755,638 in 1971 to 25,738,140 in 2021. However, the susceptible population increased by far less, from 12,493,780 to 19,773,783. The number of deaths from NMSC increased from 143 to 765. The crude death rate for the susceptible population increased from 1.1 per 100,000 to 3.9 per 100,000. The crude death rate in the susceptible population aged 65 or more increased from 9.4 to 18.2 per 100,000. Conclusion: Deaths from NMSC are increasing despite public health campaigns to prevent skin cancer. According to current trends, NMSC will cause more deaths than melanoma in Australia.

The invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) was established in the coastal waters of the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The first observation of the species in Latvian waters was in 2004. In the intervening period, the population grew, the species became of significance for local fisheries, and it likely impacted the local ecosystem in the Baltic Sea. In this study, we characterize the spatial–temporal population development of round goby in Latvian coastal waters using data from three different scientific and fisheries-independent surveys. We also include data from commercial fisheries landings to describe the fisheries targeting the species. Our results suggest an exponential increase in population numbers of round goby in Latvian waters, peaking in 2018, followed by a sharp decline. This observation is also supported by data from commercial fisheries landings. We suggest that intensive commercial fishing had a considerable impact on the rapid decline of the species, but that the decline was potentially amplified through a wider scale decline, as observed in many areas of the Baltic Sea. The results of this study contribute to the knowledge base on the species and how fisheries can aid in limiting the development of invasive fish populations. Based on the results of the study, we also provide recommendations for better future monitoring of the species in the coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Despite the complexity of population dynamics, most studies concerning current changes in bird populations reduce the trajectory of population change to a linear trend. This may hide more complex patterns reflecting responses of bird populations to changing anthropogenic pressures. Here, we address this complexity by means of multivariate analysis and attribute different components of bird population dynamics to different potential drivers. Location: Czech Republic. Methods: We used data on population trajectories (1982–2019) of 111 common breeding bird species, decomposed them into independent components by means of the principal component analysis (PCA), and related these components to multiple potential drivers comprising climate, land use change and species' life histories. Results: The first two ordination axes explained substantial proportion of variability of population dynamics (42.0 and 12.5% of variation in PC1 and PC2 respectively). The first axis captured linear population trend. Species with increasing populations were characterized mostly by long lifespan and warmer climatic niches. The effect of habitat was less pronounced but still significant, with negative trends being typical for farmland birds, while positive trends characterized birds of deciduous forests. The second axis captured the contrast between hump‐shaped and U‐shaped population trajectories and was even more strongly associated with species traits. Species migrating longer distances and species with narrower temperature niches revealed hump‐shaped population trends, so that their populations mostly increased before 2000 and then declined. These patterns are supported by the trends of total abundances of respective ecological groups. Main Conclusion: Although habitat transformation apparently drives population trajectories in some species groups, climate change and associated species traits represent crucial drivers of complex population dynamics of central European birds. Decomposing population dynamics into separate components brings unique insights into non‐trivial patterns of population change and their drivers, and may potentially indicate changes in the regime of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slender sole Lyopsetta exilis is an abundant groundfish on the continental shelf and inner waters of British Columbia, Canada, where it reaches a maximum standard length of 44 cm. Benthic image surveys coupled with oxygen measurements in Saanich Inlet document a dense population in bottom conditions near anoxia (0.03 ml l-1 oxygen) where diel migrating zooplankton intersect the bottom; we confirm this species is a planktivore, which limits its depth range to the base of the migration layer. In a comparison with slender sole from a nearby well-oxygenated habitat, several probable effects of living in severe hypoxia emerge: both sexes are significantly smaller in Saanich and the sex ratio is male-skewed. Otoliths from the Saanich fish were difficult to read due to many checks, but both sexes were smaller at age with the largest female (20 cm) from the hypoxia zone registering 17 years. Hypoxia appears to have a direct consequence on growth despite good food supply in this productive basin. Hyperventilation, a low metabolic rate and a very low critical oxygen tension help this fish regulate oxygen uptake in severely hypoxic conditions; it will be particularly resilient as the incidence of hypoxia increases on the continental shelf. Data from small-mesh bottom-trawl surveys over four decades reveal an increase in mean annual catch per unit effort in southern regions of the province, including the outer shelf and the Strait of Georgia. The California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton database records a general decline in fish larvae on the Oregon-California shelf since 1990, but slender sole larvae are increasing there, as they are in the Strait of Georgia. We project that the slender sole will gain relative benefits in the future warming, deoxygenated northeast Pacific Ocean.

ABSTRACTPopulation shrinkage has gained attention from academics and policymakers in recent years, due to the long-term implications the phenomenon has for public service delivery and the viability of urban and rural communities. We visualise the socio-temporal evolution of population shrinkage and growth, utilising a spatially rectified dataset containing population data from seven Census of Population covering the 1986–2016 period in the Republic of Ireland. Spatial changes in population distribution are visualised in a map that classifies small administrative units using a spatial typology distinguishing between those experiencing population growth or shrinkage, across the 30-year period. The temporal dimensions of these developments are considered in a sequence of inset maps that apply the same typology to identify the intercensal changes. Overall, the map facilitates the visual communication of long-run population trends, the identification of areas experiencing limited or no growth, and indicates the relative consistency of these trends over time.

Temperature and population growth are key drivers of energy consumption. However, the relative importance of climatic and socioeconomic factors driving energy consumption at different temporal scales is not well-understood. Therefore, we developed a time-series decomposition method to attribute the relative importance of climatic (heat index and monsoon index) and socioeconomic variables to domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015. The same method was used for Singapore from 2005–2015 to test the transferability of our time-series method. Population growth and GDP were the primary drivers for domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015, but the heat index became the primary driver from 2005–2015 instead. The monsoon and heat indexes were the primary drivers of domestic energy consumption in Singapore from 2005–2015. Climate change will increase air temperatures by 2–5 °C for Hong Kong and Singapore by 2100. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Singapore shows a linear relationship between temperature and domestic energy consumption, whereas the relationship is non-linear in Hong Kong. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the impact of climatic change on monsoon mechanism and heat index, which can predict future cooling demand and help achieve sustainable development goals.

Measures of small area deprivation have played a major role in targeting resources in the UK. The English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is the official measure of small area deprivation in England and it has been used to allocate billions of pounds of government money. The success of schemes to reduce deprivation can only be assessed by measuring changes in deprivation over time. In addition, the effect of such schemes is likely to be a partly a function of the deprivation history of an area. More generally, the trajectory of deprivation, and not just its current state, is important in understanding the likely impacts of deprivation on those who live in deprived areas. This paper combines the strengths of the IMD as a broad-ranging measure based on administrative data (here, using the 2004, 2007, 2010, 2015 and 2019 indices) and the Townsend score derived from Census data for a much longer time period (1971 to 2011). In addition, benefit claimant count data are used as a proxy for unemployment following the national Covid-19 lockdowns. The paper identifies some major trends in small area deprivation and unemployment over the period 1971 to 2020 and it highlights some key similarities and differences between the Townsend score and the IMD and makes links to changes in unemployment in 2020. Areas with very long term deprivation are identified and the strong association between job losses following Covid-19 lockdown and deprivation histories is demonstrated. The analyses are used to argue that deprivation trajectories should be considered if effective strategies for reducing spatial inequalities are to be developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Biodiversity monitoring is crucial for effective conservation efforts. Effective monitoring allows managers to determine the status and trends of biodiversity, as well as the success of conservation actions. The population of the Broad‐toothed Rats (Mastacomys fuscus) in the Barrington Tops National Park New South Wales, Australia has been monitored since 1999 via scat and live‐trapping surveys. We reviewed the methods used and analysed the data produced with the aim of describing patterns of population change over time using a range of outcome variables and identifying different climate correlates. A secondary aim was to explore the use of population statistics that account for imperfect detection by comparing naïve occupancy, with an index of relative abundance based on trap effort, the latency to find scats during scat surveys and an occupancy model based on trapping surveys. Neither of these three methods accounts for detectability variation. Naïve occupancy decreased slightly over time, while the relative abundance based on trap effort revealed no evidence of change. Additionally, naïve occupancy decreased with increasing temperature while temperature had no clear impact on relative abundance. Finally, precipitation had no impact on either naïve occupancy or relative abundance. We found no evidence of a relationship between the latency to find scats and the index of relative abundance, suggesting that one or neither is related to actual abundance. Finally, a multi‐season occupancy model found occupancy probability to be 0.78 ± 0.23 (standard error); detection probability as 0.51 ± 0.06; seasonal colonisation rate as 0.36 ± 0.13 and seasonal extinction rate at 0.44 ± 0.13. We conclude that despite significant investment in monitoring, this historical data set does not allow managers to ascertain whether population change has occurred and to identify potential drivers of change. Careful consideration of future methods, in particular, whether there is imperfect detection in scat surveys, will help to inform future monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The habitats of Batillaria multiformis (Near Threatened species) and Batillaria attramentaria are often overlapping on a mudflat, and young individuals of two Batillaria snails were difficult to identify by shell morphology. This is one of the causes that the study, such as population dynamics of two Batillaria species, did not advance. Recently, species identification by DNA analysis for B. multiformis and B. attramentaria was developed using a PCR-RFLP method. However, using only one restriction enzyme and universal primer may lead to misidentification. Therefore, this study examined a more precise method using two restriction enzymes for the PCR-RFLP technique. The mitochondrial DNA gene encoding cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) was amplified, and two restriction enzymes, PstI and HinfI, were selected for this method. The number and position of bands after the agarose gel electrophoresis enable us to identify the two Batillaria species. After the effectiveness of this method was confirmed by adult B. multiformis and B. attramentaria that had each typical shell shape, young Batillaria snail samples that were difficult for morphological identification were identified by this PCR-RFLP method. We proved that the proposed PCR-RFLP identification method is simple and reliable in identifying the morphologically similar B. multiformis and B. attramentaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been widely recognized. However, no studies have comprehensively evaluated future PM2.5-attributed AMI burdens under different climate mitigation and population change scenarios. We aimed to quantify the PM2.5-AMI association and estimate the future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases under six integrated scenarios in 2030 and 2060 in Shandong Province, China. Methods: Daily AMI incident cases and air pollutant data were collected from 136 districts/counties in Shandong Province from 2017 − 2019. A two-stage analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the baseline PM2.5-AMI association. The future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases was estimated by combining the fitted PM2.5-AMI association with the projected daily PM2.5 concentrations under six integrated scenarios. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in PM2.5-related AMI incidence using a decomposition method. Results: Each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at lag05 was related to an excess risk of 1.3 % (95 % confidence intervals: 0.9 %, 1.7 %) for AMI incidence from 2017 − 2019 in Shandong Province. The estimated total PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases would increase by 10.9−125.9 % and 6.4–244.6 % under Scenarios 1 − 3 in 2030 and 2060, whereas they would decrease by 0.9–5.2 % and 33.0–46.2 % under Scenarios 5 – 6 in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage increases in PM2.5-attributed female cases (2030: −0.3 % to 135.1 %; 2060: −33.2 % to 321.5 %) and aging cases (2030: 15.2–171.8 %; 2060: −21.5 % to 394.2 %) would wholly exceed those in male cases (2030: −1.8 % to 133.2 %; 2060: −41.1 % to 264.3 %) and non-aging cases (2030: −41.0 % to 45.7 %; 2060: −89.5 % to −17.0 %) under six scenarios in 2030 and 2060. Population aging is the main driver of increased PM2.5-related AMI incidence under Scenarios 1 − 3 in 2030 and 2060, while improved air quality can offset these negative effects of population aging under the implementation of the carbon neutrality and 1.5 °C targets. Conclusion: The combination of ambitious climate policies (i.e., 1.5 °C warming limits and carbon neutrality targets) with stringent clean air policies is necessary to reduce the health impacts of air pollution in Shandong Province, China, regardless of population aging.

While seabirds are well‐known for making a living under some of the harshest conditions on the planet, their capacity to buffer against unfavourable conditions can be stretched in response to ecosystem change. During population increases, overlap between conspecifics can limit population growth through competition for breeding or feeding resources. What is less well understood is the role that intrinsic processes play during periods of population decline or under a changing environment. We interrogate key demographic parameters and their biophysical drivers to understand the role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers during a recent near halving of a large Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) metapopulation. The loss of 154,000 breeding birds along the 100‐km East Antarctic coastline centred around 63°E over the last decade diverges from a sustained increase over preceding decades and is contrary to recent models that predict a continued increase. The decline was initially triggered by changed environmental conditions: more extensive near‐shore sea ice caused a reduction in breeding success. The evidence suggests this decline was exacerbated by feedback processes driving an inverse density‐dependent decrease in fledgling survival in response to smaller cohort size. It appears that the old adage of safety in numbers may shape the fledgling penguins' chances of survival and, if compromised over multiple years, could exacerbate difficulties during population decline or if feedback processes arise. The likely interplay between demographic parameters meant that conditions were more unfavourable and negative effects more rapid than would be expected if demographic processes acted in isolation or independently. Failure to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers in predictive population models may mean that the real impacts of climate change on species' populations are more severe than projections would lead us to believe. These results improve our understanding of population regulation during periods of rapid decline for long‐lived marine species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban expansion is a form of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) that occurs globally, and population growth can be a driver of and be driven by LCLUC. Determining the cause–effect relationship is challenging because the temporal resolution of population data is limited by decadal censuses for most countries. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship and relative timing between population change and land use change based on a case study of northern Taiwan from 1990 to 2015. A unique dataset on population was acquired from annually-updated governmental-based population registers maintained at the district level, and land-use expansion data (Residential, Employment, and Transportation Corridor categories) were derived from dense time series of Landsat imagery. Linear regression was applied to understand the general relationship between population and land use and their changes. The strongest relationships were found between population and areal extent of Residential land use, and between population change and Residential areal change. Lagged correlation analysis was implemented for identifying the time lag between population growth and land use change. Most districts exhibited Residential and Employment expansion prior to population growth, especially for districts in the periphery of metropolitan areas. Conversely, the core of metropolitan areas exhibited population growth prior to Residential and Employment expansion. Residential and Employment expansion were deemed to be drivers of population change, so population change was modeled with ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression with Residential and Employment expansion in both synchronized and time lag manners. Estimated population growth was found to be the most accurate when geographic differences and time lags from urban land use expansion were both incorporated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate risk events act on existing inequalities, causing unequal damage across social groups and showing that established vulnerability should be a key consideration in preventing and mitigating the consequences of weather extremes. The disastrous snowfalls that affected Asturias in Northern Spain in the winter of 1888 provide an intriguing and useful historical example of why such consideration is vital. This article is based on analysis of church records and population censuses of 22 mountain parishes over a 21‐year period. It examines the long‐term sociodemographic impacts of that weather event and reveals dramatic changes in fertility, mortality, and nuptiality. Marriages and births decreased by 67% in the 2 years following the snowstorms, when the highest levels of mortality were reached. The excess mortality especially affected those adults over 70, infants under 5, and, most notably, women. A livelihood crisis was at the base of these long‐term effects. Those demographic impacts point to the event's severity and show that the repercussions of a disaster go far beyond deaths and material losses and are deeply rooted in social factors. These findings reinforce the idea that reconstructing old disastrous episodes is of great social and scientific interest now. That is because, as governments and others are progressively paying more attention to the possibilities of adaptation to global change, there is greater appreciation of the fact that delving into the long‐term impacts of past natural disasters can guide our main future strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Understanding long-term disaster effects is key to building theories of recovery and informing policymaking. Findings regarding long-term recovery are inconsistent, with some scholars finding that disasters have little long-term impact, and others asserting otherwise. To assist in resolving this discord, we apply a conceptual framework and computational model of community resilience ("COPEWELL") that places community functioning (CF) at the center of evaluating the effects of disaster over time. Using flooding as a disaster type, we hypothesize a change in baseline CF trend when a flood-related federally declared disaster event occurs. Methods: We used county-level flood-related federally declared disaster events (2010–2014) and selected population demographics to study their effects on annual CF trends among United States counties (N = 3141). Results: In multivariate analysis of baseline CF, we found a significant negative relationship of prior five-year flood status, federal regions relative to the Northeast (Region I), lower total earnings, and greater population size. Annual CF trend was 0.09% (95%CI: 0.01%–0.16%). In multivariate analysis, significant predictors included baseline CF (β = −0.0178, −0.0047–−0.0309), any concurrent flood-related federally declared disaster events (−0.0024, −0.0040–−0.0008), ten-year prior flood events (−0.0017, −0.0034–−0.0000) and concurrent population change (−0.0186, −0.0338–−0.0035). Conclusions: Recent floods depress baseline CF, while concurrent and ten-year-ago floods depress trend in CF. Resilience may potentially be modified by raising baseline CF and maintaining population over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), which includes the 2010 and 2011 Christchurch earthquakes, is one of the deadliest disasters in New Zealand history. Following the CES, displacement of the affected population occurred, leading to an out‐migration from affected areas and changes to places of residence. This paper investigates the spatial changes in population following the CES, using a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) analysis approach to examine if there is a relationship between population change within the Canterbury region, and potential driving forces across two time periods: 2006–2013 and 2013–2018. The findings of this study could assist in informing future decision making and planning for earthquake events and to increase the effectiveness of land use policy decisions for post‐disaster recovery in New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]