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The AM60B magnesium alloy remains a pivotal player in the pursuit of lighter, biodegradable and more sustainable solutions for various biomedical implants because of its excellent machinability, exceptional strength and resistance to degradation. However, AM60B magnesium alloys exhibit poor machinability when machined by conventional methods, since they are susceptible to deformation and degradation at elevated temperatures. The current work focused on multiresponse optimization for AM60B magnesium alloys for wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM), where multiple output variables including the machining rate, surface irregularity, and microindentation hardness, were considered simultaneously. Response surface methodology (RSM) along with artificial neural network (ANN) were utilized to investigate the effect of these parameters on the control of these output characteristics. The findings demonstrated the best combination of input specifications, with a discharge duration of 112.743 µs, a spark gap time of 57.6532 µs, a discharge voltage of 6.63 V and a wire advance rate of 5.39357 mm/min which yielded the best surface irregularity, microindentation hardness, and machining rate from the RSM. ANN and RSM models were effective in simulating the experiments, with predicted values closely aligning with the experimental results. An optimally trained network model exhibited good agreement with a mean error less than 5%. Additionally, the condition of the machined surface, including any cracks, voids, or other flaws, was examined using scanning electron microscope (SEM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) and prediction modelling have become increasingly influential in healthcare, providing critical insights and supporting clinical decisions, particularly in the age of big data. This paper serves as an introductory guide for health researchers and readers interested in prediction modelling and explores how these technologies support clinical decisions, particularly with big data, and covers all aspects of the development, assessment and reporting of a model using ML. The paper starts with the importance of prediction modelling for precision medicine. It outlines different types of prediction and machine learning approaches, including supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning, and provides an overview of popular algorithms for various outcomes and settings. It also introduces key theoretical ML concepts. The importance of data quality, preprocessing and unbiased model performance evaluation is highlighted. Concepts of apparent, internal and external validation will be introduced along with metrics for discrimination and calibration for different types of outcomes. Additionally, the paper addresses model interpretation, fairness and implementation in clinical practice. Finally, the paper provides recommendations for reporting and identifies common pitfalls in prediction modelling and machine learning. The aim of the paper is to help readers understand and critically evaluate research papers that present ML models and to serve as a first guide for developing, assessing and implementing their own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major health concern in Africa. Improved identification and treatment of high-risk individuals can reduce adverse health outcomes. Current CVD risk calculators are largely unvalidated in African populations and overlook genetic factors. Polygenic scores (PGS) can enhance risk prediction by measuring genetic susceptibility to CVD, but their effectiveness in genetically diverse populations is limited by a European-ancestry bias. To address this, we developed models integrating genetic data and conventional risk factors to assess the risk of developing cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations. Methods: We used summary statistics from a genome-wide association meta-analysis (n = 14,126) in African populations to derive novel genome-wide PGS for 14 cardiometabolic traits in an independent African target sample (Africa Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research (AWI-Gen), n = 10,603). Regression analyses assessed relationships between each PGS and corresponding cardiometabolic trait, and seven CVD outcomes (CVD, heart attack, stroke, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and obesity). The predictive utility of the genetic data was evaluated using elastic net models containing multiple PGS (MultiPGS) and reference-projected principal components of ancestry (PPCs). An integrated risk prediction model incorporating genetic and conventional risk factors was developed. Nested cross-validation was used when deriving elastic net models to enhance generalisability. Results: Our African-specific PGS displayed significant but variable within- and cross- trait prediction (max.R2 = 6.8%, p = 1.86 × 10−173). Significantly associated PGS with dyslipidaemia included the PGS for total cholesterol (logOR = 0.210, SE = 0.022, p = 2.18 × 10−21) and low-density lipoprotein (logOR = − 0.141, SE = 0.022, p = 1.30 × 10−20); with hypertension, the systolic blood pressure PGS (logOR = 0.150, SE = 0.045, p = 8.34 × 10−4); and multiple PGS associated with obesity: body mass index (max. logOR = 0.131, SE = 0.031, p = 2.22 × 10−5), hip circumference (logOR = 0.122, SE = 0.029, p = 2.28 × 10−5), waist circumference (logOR = 0.013, SE = 0.098, p = 8.13 × 10−4) and weight (logOR = 0.103, SE = 0.029, p = 4.89 × 10−5). Elastic net models incorporating MultiPGS and PPCs significantly improved prediction over MultiPGS alone. Models including genetic data and conventional risk factors were more predictive than conventional risk models alone (dyslipidaemia: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 4.45 × 10−12; hypertension: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 2.37 × 10−13; obesity: R2 increase = 5.5%, 1.33 × 10−34). Conclusions: In African populations, CVD and associated cardiometabolic trait prediction models can be improved by incorporating ancestry-aligned PGS and accounting for ancestry. Combining PGS with conventional risk factors further enhances prediction over traditional models based on conventional factors. Incorporating data from target populations can improve the generalisability of international predictive models for CVD and associated traits in African populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients surgically treated for lumbar spinal stenosis or cervical radiculopathy report improvement in approximately two out of three cases. Advancements in Machine Learning and the utility of large datasets have enabled the development of prognostic prediction models within spine surgery. This trial investigates if the use of the postoperative outcome prediction model, the Dialogue Support, can alter patient-reported outcome and satisfaction compared to current practice. Methods: This is a prospective, multicenter clinical trial. Patients referred to a spine clinic with cervical radiculopathy or lumbar spinal stenosis will be screened for eligibility. Participants will be assessed at baseline upon recruitment and at 12 months follow-up. The Dialogue Support will be used on all participants, and they will thereafter be placed into either a surgical or a non-surgical treatment arm, depending on the decision made between patient and surgeon. The surgical treatment group will be studied separately based on diagnosis of either cervical radiculopathy or lumbar spinal stenosis. Both the surgical and the non-surgical group will be compared to a retrospective matched control group retrieved from the Swespine register, on which the Dialogue Support has not been used. The primary outcome measure is global assessment regarding leg/arm pain in the surgical treatment group. Secondary outcome measures include patient satisfaction, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), EQ-5D, and Numeric Rating Scales (NRS) for pain. In the non-surgical treatment group primary outcome measures are EQ-5D and mortality, as part of a selection bias analysis. Discussion: The findings of this study may provide evidence on whether the use of an advanced digital decision tool can alter patient-reported outcomes after surgery. Trial registration: The trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 17th, 2023, NCT05817747. Protocol version: 1. Trial design: Clinical multicenter trial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: The objective of the Hypoglycaemia REdefining SOLutions for better liVES (Hypo-RESOLVE) project is to use a dataset of pooled clinical trials across pharmaceutical and device companies in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes to examine factors associated with incident hypoglycaemia events and to quantify the prediction of these events. Methods: Data from 90 trials with 46,254 participants were pooled. Analyses were done for type 1 and type 2 diabetes separately. Poisson mixed models, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration and trial identifier were fitted to assess the association of clinical variables with hypoglycaemia event counts. Tree-based gradient-boosting algorithms (XGBoost) were fitted using training data and their predictive performance in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluated on test data. Baseline models including age, sex and diabetes duration were compared with models that further included a score of hypoglycaemia in the first 6 weeks from study entry, and full models that included further clinical variables. The relative predictive importance of each covariate was assessed using XGBoost's importance procedure. Prediction across the entire trial duration for each trial (mean of 34.8 weeks for type 1 diabetes and 25.3 weeks for type 2 diabetes) was assessed. Results: For both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, variables associated with more frequent hypoglycaemia included female sex, white ethnicity, longer diabetes duration, treatment with human as opposed to analogue-only insulin, higher glucose variability, higher score for hypoglycaemia across the 6 week baseline period, lower BP, lower lipid levels and treatment with psychoactive drugs. Prediction of any hypoglycaemia event of any severity was greater than prediction of hypoglycaemia requiring assistance (level 3 hypoglycaemia), for which events were sparser. For prediction of level 1 or worse hypoglycaemia during the whole follow-up period, the AUC was 0.835 (95% CI 0.826, 0.844) in type 1 diabetes and 0.840 (95% CI 0.831, 0.848) in type 2 diabetes. For level 3 hypoglycaemia, the AUC was lower at 0.689 (95% CI 0.667, 0.712) for type 1 diabetes and 0.705 (95% CI 0.662, 0.748) for type 2 diabetes. Compared with the baseline models, almost all the improvement in prediction could be captured by the individual's hypoglycaemia history, glucose variability and blood glucose over a 6 week baseline period. Conclusions/interpretation: Although hypoglycaemia rates show large variation according to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and treatment history, looking at a 6 week period of hypoglycaemia events and glucose measurements predicts future hypoglycaemia risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major health concern in Africa. Improved identification and treatment of high-risk individuals can reduce adverse health outcomes. Current CVD risk calculators are largely unvalidated in African populations and overlook genetic factors. Polygenic scores (PGS) can enhance risk prediction by measuring genetic susceptibility to CVD, but their effectiveness in genetically diverse populations is limited by a European-ancestry bias. To address this, we developed models integrating genetic data and conventional risk factors to assess the risk of developing cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations. Methods We used summary statistics from a genome-wide association meta-analysis (n = 14,126) in African populations to derive novel genome-wide PGS for 14 cardiometabolic traits in an independent African target sample (Africa Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research (AWI-Gen), n = 10,603). Regression analyses assessed relationships between each PGS and corresponding cardiometabolic trait, and seven CVD outcomes (CVD, heart attack, stroke, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and obesity). The predictive utility of the genetic data was evaluated using elastic net models containing multiple PGS (MultiPGS) and reference-projected principal components of ancestry (PPCs). An integrated risk prediction model incorporating genetic and conventional risk factors was developed. Nested cross-validation was used when deriving elastic net models to enhance generalisability. Results Our African-specific PGS displayed significant but variable within- and cross- trait prediction (max.R 2 = 6.8%, p = 1.86 × 10−173). Significantly associated PGS with dyslipidaemia included the PGS for total cholesterol (logOR = 0.210, SE = 0.022, p = 2.18 × 10−21) and low-density lipoprotein (logOR = − 0.141, SE = 0.022, p = 1.30 × 10−20); with hypertension, the systolic blood pressure PGS (logOR = 0.150, SE = 0.045, p = 8.34 × 10−4); and multiple PGS associated with obesity: body mass index (max. logOR = 0.131, SE = 0.031, p = 2.22 × 10−5), hip circumference (logOR = 0.122, SE = 0.029, p = 2.28 × 10−5), waist circumference (logOR = 0.013, SE = 0.098, p = 8.13 × 10−4) and weight (logOR = 0.103, SE = 0.029, p = 4.89 × 10−5). Elastic net models incorporating MultiPGS and PPCs significantly improved prediction over MultiPGS alone. Models including genetic data and conventional risk factors were more predictive than conventional risk models alone (dyslipidaemia: R 2 increase = 2.6%, p = 4.45 × 10−12; hypertension: R 2 increase = 2.6%, p = 2.37 × 10−13; obesity: R 2 increase = 5.5%, 1.33 × 10−34). Conclusions In African populations, CVD and associated cardiometabolic trait prediction models can be improved by incorporating ancestry-aligned PGS and accounting for ancestry. Combining PGS with conventional risk factors further enhances prediction over traditional models based on conventional factors. Incorporating data from target populations can improve the generalisability of international predictive models for CVD and associated traits in African populations.

Abstract Background Patients surgically treated for lumbar spinal stenosis or cervical radiculopathy report improvement in approximately two out of three cases. Advancements in Machine Learning and the utility of large datasets have enabled the development of prognostic prediction models within spine surgery. This trial investigates if the use of the postoperative outcome prediction model, the Dialogue Support, can alter patient-reported outcome and satisfaction compared to current practice. Methods This is a prospective, multicenter clinical trial. Patients referred to a spine clinic with cervical radiculopathy or lumbar spinal stenosis will be screened for eligibility. Participants will be assessed at baseline upon recruitment and at 12 months follow-up. The Dialogue Support will be used on all participants, and they will thereafter be placed into either a surgical or a non-surgical treatment arm, depending on the decision made between patient and surgeon. The surgical treatment group will be studied separately based on diagnosis of either cervical radiculopathy or lumbar spinal stenosis. Both the surgical and the non-surgical group will be compared to a retrospective matched control group retrieved from the Swespine register, on which the Dialogue Support has not been used. The primary outcome measure is global assessment regarding leg/arm pain in the surgical treatment group. Secondary outcome measures include patient satisfaction, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), EQ-5D, and Numeric Rating Scales (NRS) for pain. In the non-surgical treatment group primary outcome measures are EQ-5D and mortality, as part of a selection bias analysis. Discussion The findings of this study may provide evidence on whether the use of an advanced digital decision tool can alter patient-reported outcomes after surgery. Trial registration The trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 17th, 2023, NCT05817747. Protocol version 1. Trial design Clinical multicenter trial.

Abstract Background An increasing number of people are using multiple medications each day, named polypharmacy. This is driven by an ageing population, increasing multimorbidity, and single disease-focussed guidelines. Medications carry obvious benefits, yet polypharmacy is also linked to adverse consequences including adverse drug events, drug-drug and drug-disease interactions, poor patient experience and wasted resources. Problematic polypharmacy is ‘the prescribing of multiple medicines inappropriately, or where the intended benefits are not realised’. Identifying people with problematic polypharmacy is complex, as multiple medicines can be suitable for people with several chronic conditions requiring more treatment. Hence, polypharmacy is often potentially problematic, rather than always inappropriate, dependent on clinical context and individual benefit vs risk. There is a need to improve how we identify and evaluate these patients by extending beyond simple counts of medicines to include individual factors and long-term conditions. Aim To produce a Polypharmacy Assessment Score to identify a population with unusual levels of prescribing who may be at risk of potentially problematic polypharmacy. Methods Analyses will be performed in three parts: 1. A prediction model will be constructed using observed medications count as the dependent variable, with age, gender and long-term conditions as independent variables. A ‘Polypharmacy Assessment Score’ will then be constructed through calculating the differences between the observed and expected count of prescribed medications, thereby highlighting people that have unexpected levels of prescribing. Parts 2 and 3 will examine different aspects of validity of the Polypharmacy Assessment Score: 2. To assess ‘construct validity’, cross-sectional analyses will evaluate high-risk prescribing within populations defined by a range of Polypharmacy Assessment Scores, using both explicit (STOPP/START criteria) and implicit (Medication Appropriateness Index) measures of inappropriate prescribing. 3. To assess ‘predictive validity’, a retrospective cohort study will explore differences in clinical outcomes (adverse drug reactions, unplanned hospitalisation and all-cause mortality) between differing scores. Discussion Developing a cross-cutting measure of polypharmacy may allow healthcare professionals to prioritise and risk stratify patients with polypharmacy using unusual levels of prescribing. This would be an improvement from current approaches of either using simple cutoffs or narrow prescribing criteria.

Objectives: Computer-aided detection (CAD) software packages quantify tuberculosis (TB)-compatible chest X-ray (CXR) abnormality as continuous scores. In practice, a threshold value is selected for binary CXR classification. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of an alternative approach to applying CAD for TB triage: incorporating CAD scores in multivariable modeling. Methods: We pooled individual patient data from four studies. Separately, for two commercial CAD, we used logistic regression to model microbiologically confirmed TB. Models included CAD score, study site, age, sex, human immunodeficiency virus status, and prior TB. We compared specificity at target sensitivities ≥90% between the multivariable model and the current threshold-based approach for CAD use. Results: We included 4,733/5,640 (84%) participants with complete covariate data (median age 36 years; 45% female; 22% with prior TB; 22% people living with human immunodeficiency virus). A total of 805 (17%) had TB. Multivariable models demonstrated excellent performance (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% confidence interval]: software A, 0.91 [0.90-0.93]; software B, 0.92 [0.91-0.93]). Compared with threshold scores, multivariable models increased specificity (e.g., at 90% sensitivity, threshold vs model specificity [95% confidence interval]: software A, 71% [68-74%] vs 75% [74-77%]; software B, 69% [63-75%] vs 75% [74-77%]). Conclusion: Using CAD scores in multivariable models outperformed the current practice of CAD-threshold-based CXR classification for TB diagnosis.

Lijun Ma,1,* Holly Tibble1,2,* 1Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland; 2Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Edinburgh, Scotland*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Holly Tibble, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, Email htibble@ed.ac.ukAbstract: Prognostic models hold great potential for predicting asthma exacerbations, providing opportunities for early intervention, and are a popular area of current research. However, it is unclear how models should be compared and contrasted, given their differences in both design and performance, particularly with a view to potential implementation in routine practice. This systematic review aimed to identify novel predictive models of asthma attacks in adults and compare differences in construction related to populations, outcome definitions, prediction time horizons, algorithms, validation, and performance estimation. Twenty-five studies were identified for comparison, with varying definitions of asthma attacks and prediction event time horizons ranging from 15 days to 30 months. The most commonly used algorithm was logistic regression (20/25 studies); however, none of the six which tested multiple algorithms identified it as highest performing algorithm. The effect of various study design characteristics on performance was evaluated in order to provide context to the limitations of highly performing models. Models used a variety of constructs, which affected both their performance and their viability for implementation in routine practice. Consultation with stakeholders is necessary to identify priorities for model refinement and to create a benchmark of acceptable performance for implementation in clinical practice.Keywords: clinical decision support, machine learning, prediction modelling, asthma exacerbation, systematic review

Precision medicine (PM), also termed stratified, individualised, targeted, or personalised medicine, embraces a rapidly expanding area of research, knowledge, and practice. It brings together two emerging health technologies to deliver better individualised care: the many "-omics" arising from increased capacity to understand the human genome and "big data" and data analytics, including artificial intelligence (AI). PM has the potential to transform an individual's health, moving from population-based disease prevention to more personalised management. There is however a tension between the two, with a real risk that this will exacerbate health inequalities and divert funds and attention from basic healthcare requirements leading to worse health outcomes for many. All areas of medicine should consider how this will affect their practice, with PM now strongly encouraged and supported by government initiatives and research funding. In this review, we discuss examples of PM in current practice and its emerging applications in primary care, such as clinical prediction tools that incorporate genomic markers and pharmacogenomic testing. We look towards potential future applications and consider some key questions for PM, including evidence of its real-world impact, its affordability, the risk of exacerbating health inequalities, and the computational and storage challenges of applying PM technologies at scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive models for Clostridioides difficile infection can identify high-risk patients and aid clinicians in preventing infection. Issues of generalizability regarding current predictive models have been acknowledged but, to the authors' knowledge, have never been quantified. C. difficile infection, severity and recurrence predictive models were created using multi-variate logistic regression through case–control sampling from an urban safety-net hospital. Models were validated using five-fold cross-validation, and inverse probability weights (IPW) based on two different catchment area definitions were used to improve external validity. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and sensitivity and specificity with bootstrapped confidence intervals (CI) were used to assess and compare model fit and performance. Changes in performance before and after weighting were small across all models, although differences were more apparent after weighting the recurrence model (AUROC values of 0.78, 0.76 and 0.71 for the unweighted and two weighted models, respectively). Overall, the infection model performed the best (AUROC 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.85), followed by the recurrence model (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI 0.69–0.86) and then the severity model (AUROC 0.70, 95% CI 0.63–0.78). The performance of the models after weighting did not change drastically, suggesting that the models predicting C. difficile infection, severity and recurrence may not be impacted by patient selection factors. However, other researchers may wish to consider addressing these catchment forces using IPW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subject. Theoretical, methodological, and practical issues related to the economic and social management of the city with due account of the predicted values of the industrial development. Objectives. Justification of scientific and methodological provisions of a conceptual nature related to urban management and solving local social problems by forecasting the level of industrial development. Methodology. The authors put forward a hypothesis: if the level of industrial development is forecasted accurately, it is possible to plan upcoming changes in the main economic and social indicators of the municipal economy. Theoretically, the hypothesis is based on the method of logical scaling and synthesis of scientific and practical knowledge. Statistical studies were conducted using the method of econometric and financial analysis based on socio-economic indicators of industrial cities in the Southern Federal District of Russia for the period from 2013 to 2022. Forecasting for the subsequent periods is based on an applied approach to constructing estimates of the quasi-maximal likelihood of the level of industrial development, which was carried out using the theory of stochastic differential equations based on methods of probabilistic forecasting. Results and discussion. As a result of the study, it was substantiated that municipal management contributes to the production of material goods and to harmonisation of socio-economic relations between local authorities, businesses, public organisations, and individuals, which are interrelated with the level of industrial development of a city. The developed applied approach to constructing estimates of the quasi-maximal likelihood of values of socio-economic parameters makes it possible to forecast the level of industrial development of cities in the Russian Federation. Point and interval forecasts lay the foundation for planning economic and other indicators. The concept of economic and social management of administrative-territorial units was proposed. The mandatory socio-economic blocks of the concept were supplemented with the functionality of prediction modelling, which requires further discussion, critical understanding, and subsequent improvement. Future changes in local industrial policy need to be analysed and evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in the context of structural modernisation of the economic and organisational mechanism for urban and social management of the city.

The investigation of similarities and differences in the mechanisms of verbal and visuospatial creative thinking has long been a controversial topic. Prior studies found that visuospatial creativity was primarily supported by the right hemisphere, whereas verbal creativity relied on the interaction between both hemispheres. However, creative thinking also involves abundant dynamic features that may have been ignored in the previous static view. Recently, a new method has been developed that measures hemispheric laterality from a dynamic perspective, providing new insight into the exploration of creative thinking. In the present study, dynamic lateralisation index was calculated with resting‐state fMRI data. We combined the dynamic lateralisation index with sparse canonical correlation analysis to examine similarities and differences in the mechanisms of verbal and visuospatial creativity. Our results showed that the laterality reversal of the default mode network, fronto‐parietal network, cingulo‐opercular network and visual network contributed significantly to both verbal and visuospatial creativity and consequently could be considered the common neural mechanisms shared by these creative modes. In addition, we found that verbal creativity relied more on the language network, while visuospatial creativity relied more on the somatomotor network, which can be considered a difference in their mechanism. Collectively, these findings indicated that verbal and visuospatial creativity may have similar mechanisms to support the basic creative thinking process and different mechanisms to adapt to the specific task conditions. These findings may have significant implications for our understanding of the neural mechanisms of different types of creative thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Prognostication is very important to clinicians and families during the early management of severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI), however, there are no gold standard biomarkers to determine prognosis in sTBI. As has been demonstrated in several diseases, early measurement of serum metabolomic profiles can be used as sensitive and specific biomarkers to predict outcomes. Methods We prospectively enrolled 59 adults with sTBI (Glasgow coma scale, GCS ≤ 8) in a multicenter Canadian TBI (CanTBI) study. Serum samples were drawn for metabolomic profiling on the 1st and 4th days following injury. The Glasgow outcome scale extended (GOSE) was collected at 3- and 12-months post-injury. Targeted direct infusion liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (DI/LC–MS/MS) and untargeted proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-NMR) were used to profile serum metabolites. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the association between serum metabolomics and GOSE, dichotomized into favorable (GOSE 5–8) and unfavorable (GOSE 1–4), outcomes. Results Serum metabolic profiles on days 1 and 4 post-injury were highly predictive (Q2 > 0.4–0.5) and highly accurate (AUC > 0.99) to predict GOSE outcome at 3- and 12-months post-injury and mortality at 3 months. The metabolic profiles on day 4 were more predictive (Q2 > 0.55) than those measured on day 1 post-injury. Unfavorable outcomes were associated with considerable metabolite changes from day 1 to day 4 compared to favorable outcomes. Increased lysophosphatidylcholines, acylcarnitines, energy-related metabolites (glucose, lactate), aromatic amino acids, and glutamate were associated with poor outcomes and mortality. Discussion Metabolomic profiles were strongly associated with the prognosis of GOSE outcome at 3 and 12 months and mortality following sTBI in adults. The metabolic phenotypes on day 4 post-injury were more predictive and significant for predicting the sTBI outcome compared to the day 1 sample. This may reflect the larger contribution of secondary brain injury (day 4) to sTBI outcome. Patients with unfavorable outcomes demonstrated more metabolite changes from day 1 to day 4 post-injury. These findings highlighted increased concentration of neurobiomarkers such as N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and tyrosine, decreased concentrations of ketone bodies, and decreased urea cycle metabolites on day 4 presenting potential metabolites to predict the outcome. The current findings strongly support the use of serum metabolomics, that are shown to be better than clinical data, in determining prognosis in adults with sTBI in the early days post-injury. Our findings, however, require validation in a larger cohort of adults with sTBI to be used for clinical practice.

The specification of a particular type of effect (e.g., linear or non-linear) of a covariate in a regression model can be either based on graphical assessment, subject matter knowledge or also on data-driven model choice procedures. For the latter variant, we present a boosting approach that is available for a huge number of different model classes. Boosting is an indirect regularization technique that leads to variable selection and can easily incorporate also non-linear or smooth effects. Furthermore, the algorithm can be adapted in a way to automatically select whether to model a continuous variable with a smooth or a linear effect. We enhance this model choice procedure by trying to compensate the inherent bias towards the more complex effect by incorporating a pragmatic and simple deselection technique that was originally implemented for enhanced variable selection. We illustrate our approach in the analysis of T3 thyroid hormone levels from a larger Galician cohort and investigate its performance in a simulation study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change-driven rapid alteration of ecosystems globally is further complicated by growing anthropogenic pressures, especially in the ecologically sensitive mountainous regions. However, these two major drivers of change have largely been considered separately in species distribution models, thus compromising their reliability. Here, we integrated ensemble modelling with the human pressure index for predicting distribution and mapping priority regions across a whole range of occurrences for vulnerable species, Arnebia euchroma. Our results identified 3.08% of the study area as 'highly suitable', 2.45% as 'moderately suitable', and 94.45% as 'not suitable' or 'least suitable'. Compared to current climatic conditions, future RCP scenarios of 2050 and 2070 showed a significant loss in habitat suitability and a slight shift in the distribution pattern of the target species. By excluding the high-pressure areas of the human footprint from the predicted suitable habitats, we were able to identify the unique areas (70% of the predicted suitable area) that need special attention for conservation and restoration. Such models, if well implemented, may play a pivotal role in achieving the effective targets under the aegis of the current UN decade on ecological restoration (2021–2030) in accordance with SDG 15.4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prognostication is very important to clinicians and families during the early management of severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI), however, there are no gold standard biomarkers to determine prognosis in sTBI. As has been demonstrated in several diseases, early measurement of serum metabolomic profiles can be used as sensitive and specific biomarkers to predict outcomes. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 59 adults with sTBI (Glasgow coma scale, GCS ≤ 8) in a multicenter Canadian TBI (CanTBI) study. Serum samples were drawn for metabolomic profiling on the 1st and 4th days following injury. The Glasgow outcome scale extended (GOSE) was collected at 3- and 12-months post-injury. Targeted direct infusion liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (DI/LC–MS/MS) and untargeted proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-NMR) were used to profile serum metabolites. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the association between serum metabolomics and GOSE, dichotomized into favorable (GOSE 5–8) and unfavorable (GOSE 1–4), outcomes. Results: Serum metabolic profiles on days 1 and 4 post-injury were highly predictive (Q2 > 0.4–0.5) and highly accurate (AUC > 0.99) to predict GOSE outcome at 3- and 12-months post-injury and mortality at 3 months. The metabolic profiles on day 4 were more predictive (Q2 > 0.55) than those measured on day 1 post-injury. Unfavorable outcomes were associated with considerable metabolite changes from day 1 to day 4 compared to favorable outcomes. Increased lysophosphatidylcholines, acylcarnitines, energy-related metabolites (glucose, lactate), aromatic amino acids, and glutamate were associated with poor outcomes and mortality. Discussion: Metabolomic profiles were strongly associated with the prognosis of GOSE outcome at 3 and 12 months and mortality following sTBI in adults. The metabolic phenotypes on day 4 post-injury were more predictive and significant for predicting the sTBI outcome compared to the day 1 sample. This may reflect the larger contribution of secondary brain injury (day 4) to sTBI outcome. Patients with unfavorable outcomes demonstrated more metabolite changes from day 1 to day 4 post-injury. These findings highlighted increased concentration of neurobiomarkers such as N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and tyrosine, decreased concentrations of ketone bodies, and decreased urea cycle metabolites on day 4 presenting potential metabolites to predict the outcome. The current findings strongly support the use of serum metabolomics, that are shown to be better than clinical data, in determining prognosis in adults with sTBI in the early days post-injury. Our findings, however, require validation in a larger cohort of adults with sTBI to be used for clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It must be emphasised that it is a transition occurring over the entire peri-operative period from a state of no pain (or minimal pain) to a state of chronic pain (increased pain) [[13]]. Therefore, among 125 patients, if 68 patients had pain severity of >= 3 should we assume that the remaining 57 to have < 3 pain? Persistent breast pain in post-surgery breast cancer survivors and women with no history of breast surgery or cancer: associations with pain catastrophizing, perceived breast cancer risk, breast cancer worry, and emotional distress. Keywords: breast cancer surgery; chronic post-surgical pain; prediction modelling; risk factors EN breast cancer surgery chronic post-surgical pain prediction modelling risk factors 811 815 5 06/06/23 20230701 NES 230701 Chronic pain after surgery (chronic post-surgical pain) in patients with breast cancer has been recognised for several decades [[1]]. [Extracted from the article]

Clinical evidence based on real‐world data (RWD) is accumulating exponentially providing larger sample sizes available, which demand novel methods to deal with the enhanced heterogeneity of the data. Here, we used RWD to assess the prediction of cognitive decline in a large heterogeneous sample of participants being enrolled with cognitive stimulation, a phenomenon that is of great interest to clinicians but that is riddled with difficulties and limitations. More precisely, from a multitude of neuropsychological Training Materials (TMs), we asked whether was possible to accurately predict an individual's cognitive decline one year after being tested. In particular, we performed longitudinal modelling of the scores obtained from 215 different tests, grouped into 29 cognitive domains, a total of 124,610 instances from 7902 participants (40% male, 46% female, 14% not indicated), each performing an average of 16 tests. Employing a machine learning approach based on ROC analysis and cross‐validation techniques to overcome overfitting, we show that different TMs belonging to several cognitive domains can accurately predict cognitive decline, while other domains perform poorly, suggesting that the ability to predict decline one year later is not specific to any particular domain, but is rather widely distributed across domains. Moreover, when addressing the same problem between individuals with a common diagnosed label, we found that some domains had more accurate classification for conditions such as Parkinson's disease and Down syndrome, whereas they are less accurate for Alzheimer's disease or multiple sclerosis. Future research should combine similar approaches to ours with standard neuropsychological measurements to enhance interpretability and the possibility of generalizing across different cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinical prediction models assist clinicians to estimate the natural course of a condition, and thus facilitate treatment decisions. The development of prediction models is increasingly common in obstetric research. Composite outcomes, whereby multiple outcomes are combined into a single endpoint, are frequently used in obstetric prediction models to increase statistical power when predicting rare events. Although existing literature has reviewed the positives and negatives of using composite outcomes in clinical trials, there has been minimal commentary on the implications of their use in the development and reporting of prognostic models. In this article, we review these issues, in particular, highlighting how unequal individual relationships between predictors and individual component outcomes can result in misleading conclusions, which may result in the omission of important but rare predictors or inappropriately inform clinical decisions to implement an intervention. We propose careful use, or where possible avoidance, of composite outcomes in the development of prognostic models in obstetrics. Methodological standards for developing prognostic models should be updated to standardise and appraise composite outcomes when their use is necessary. We also support previous recommendations to report on the accuracy of key components and inconsistencies among predictor variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, central nervous system (CNS) infection in patients with traumatic brain injury is usually diagnosed according to the clinical manifestations and results of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) bacterial culture. However, there are difficulties in obtaining specimens in the early stage. To develop and evaluate a nomogram to predict CNS infections in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) after craniotomy. This retrospective study was conducted in consecutive adult patients with sTBI who were admitted to the neurointensive care unit (NCU) between January 2014 and September 2020. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression analysis were applied to construct the nomogram, and k -fold cross-validation (k = 10) to validate it. A total of 471 patients with sTBI who underwent surgical treatment were included, of whom 75 patients (15.7%) were diagnosed with CNS infections. The serum level of albumin, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) otorrhoea at admission, CSF leakage, CSF sampling, and postoperative re-bleeding were associated with CNS infections and incorporated into the nomogram. Our model yielded satisfactory prediction performance with an area under the curve value of 0.962 in the training set and 0.942 in the internal validation. The calibration curve exhibited satisfactory concordance between the predicted and actual outcomes. The model had good clinical use since the DCA covered a large threshold probability. Individualized nomograms for CNS infections in sTBI patients could help physicians screen for high-risk patients to perform early interventions, reducing the incidence of CNS infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When data are available from individual patients receiving either a treatment or a control intervention in a randomized trial, various statistical and machine learning methods can be used to develop models for predicting future outcomes under the two conditions, and thus to predict treatment effect at the patient level. These predictions can subsequently guide personalized treatment choices. Although several methods for validating prediction models are available, little attention has been given to measuring the performance of predictions of personalized treatment effect. In this article, we propose a range of measures that can be used to this end. We start by defining two dimensions of model accuracy for treatment effects, for a single outcome: discrimination for benefit and calibration for benefit. We then amalgamate these two dimensions into an additional concept, decision accuracy, which quantifies the model's ability to identify patients for whom the benefit from treatment exceeds a given threshold. Subsequently, we propose a series of performance measures related to these dimensions and discuss estimating procedures, focusing on randomized data. Our methods are applicable for continuous or binary outcomes, for any type of prediction model, as long as it uses baseline covariates to predict outcomes under treatment and control. We illustrate all methods using two simulated datasets and a real dataset from a trial in depression. We implement all methods in the R package predieval. Results suggest that the proposed measures can be useful in evaluating and comparing the performance of competing models in predicting individualized treatment effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients requiring intravenous vancomycin bear considerable risks of adverse outcomes both from the infection and vancomycin therapy itself, necessitating especially precise dosing to avoid sub- and supratherapeutic vancomycin exposure. Methods: In this retrospective study, we performed a population pharmacokinetic analysis to construct a vancomycin dose prediction model for CKD patients who do not require renal replacement therapy. The model was externally validated on an independent cohort of patients to assess its prediction accuracy. The pharmacokinetic parameter estimates and the equations were productized into a Web application (VancApp) subsequently implemented in routine care. The association between VancApp-based dosing and time-to-target concentration attainment, 30-day mortality, and nephrotoxicity were assessed postimplementation. Results: The model constructed from an initial cohort (n = 80) revealed a population clearance and volume of distribution of 1.30 L/h and 1.23 L/kg, respectively. External model validation (n = 112) demonstrated a mean absolute prediction error of 1.25 mg/L. Following 4 months of clinical implementation of VancApp as an optional alternative to usual care [VancApp (n = 22) vs. usual care (n = 21)], patients who had received VancApp-based dosing took a shorter time to reach target concentrations (median: 66 vs. 102 h, p = 0.187) and had fewer 30-day mortalities (14% vs. 24%, p = 0.457) compared to usual care. While statistical significance was not achieved, the clinical significance of these findings appear promising. Conclusion: Clinical implementation of a population pharmacokinetic model for vancomycin in CKD can potentially improve dosing precision in CKD and could serve as a practical means to improve vital clinical outcomes.

Abstract Background Prognostic models are used widely in the oncology domain to guide medical decision-making. Little is known about the risk of bias of prognostic models developed using machine learning and the barriers to their clinical uptake in the oncology domain. Methods We conducted a systematic review and searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for oncology-related studies developing a prognostic model using machine learning methods published between 01/01/2019 and 05/09/2019. The primary outcome was risk of bias, judged using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). We described risk of bias overall and for each domain, by development and validation analyses separately. Results We included 62 publications (48 development-only; 14 development with validation). 152 models were developed across all publications and 37 models were validated. 84% (95% CI: 77 to 89) of developed models and 51% (95% CI: 35 to 67) of validated models were at overall high risk of bias. Bias introduced in the analysis was the largest contributor to the overall risk of bias judgement for model development and validation. 123 (81%, 95% CI: 73.8 to 86.4) developed models and 19 (51%, 95% CI: 35.1 to 67.3) validated models were at high risk of bias due to their analysis, mostly due to shortcomings in the analysis including insufficient sample size and split-sample internal validation. Conclusions The quality of machine learning based prognostic models in the oncology domain is poor and most models have a high risk of bias, contraindicating their use in clinical practice. Adherence to better standards is urgently needed, with a focus on sample size estimation and analysis methods, to improve the quality of these models.

Abstract The field of health services research studies the health care system by examining outcomes relevant to patients and clinicians but also health economists and policy makers. Such outcomes often include health care spending, and utilization of care services. Building accurate prediction models using reproducible research practices for health services research is important for evidence-based decision making. Several systematic reviews have summarized prediction models for outcomes relevant to health services research, but these systematic reviews do not present a thorough assessment of reproducibility and research quality of the prediction modelling studies. In the present commentary, we discuss how recent advances in prediction modelling in other medical fields can be applied to health services research. We also describe the current status of prediction modelling in health services research, and we summarize available methodological guidance for the development, update, external validation and systematic appraisal of prediction models.

Background: This study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data. Methods: Individual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (k = 3, n = 1722) and test (k = 3, n = 918) nine models. Predictors included depressive and anxiety symptoms, social support, life events and alcohol use. Weighted sum scores were developed using coefficient weights derived from network centrality statistics (models 1–3) and factor loadings from a confirmatory factor analysis (model 4). Unweighted sum score models were tested using elastic net regularised (ENR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (models 5 and 6). Individual items were then included in ENR and OLS (models 7 and 8). All models were compared to one another and to a null model (mean post-baseline Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) score in the training data: model 9). Primary outcome: BDI-II scores at 3–4 months. Results: Models 1–7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1–6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact. Conclusions: Any of the modelling techniques (models 1–7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feature importance is often used to explain clinical prediction models. In this work, we examine three challenges using experiments with electronic health record data: computational feasibility, choosing between methods, and interpretation of the resulting explanation. This work aims to create awareness of the disagreement between feature importance methods and underscores the need for guidance to practitioners how to deal with these discrepancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dopamine responsiveness (dopa-sensitivity) is an important parameter in the management of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). For quantification of this parameter, patients undergo a challenge test with acute Levodopa administration after drug withdrawal, which may lead to patient discomfort and use of significant resources. Objective: Our objective was to develop a predictive model combining clinical scores and imaging. Methods: 350 patients, recruited by 13 specialist French centers and considered for deep brain stimulation, underwent an acute L-dopa challenge (dopa-sensitivity > 30%), full assessment, and MRI investigations, including T1w and R2* images. Data were randomly divided into a learning base from 10 centers and data from the remaining centers for testing. A machine selection approach was applied to choose the optimal variables and these were then used in regression modeling. Complexity of the modelling was incremental, while the first model considered only clinical variables, the subsequent included imaging features. The performances were evaluated by comparing the estimated values and actual values Results: Whatever the model, the variables age, sex, disease duration, and motor scores were selected as contributors. The first model used them and the coefficients of determination (R2) was 0.60 for the testing set and 0.69 in the learning set (p < 0.001). The models that added imaging features enhanced the performances: with T1w (R2 = 0.65 and 0.76, p < 0.001) and with R2* (R2 = 0.60 and 0.72, p < 0.001). Conclusion: These results suggest that modeling is potentially a simple way to estimate dopa-sensitivity, but requires confirmation in a larger population, including patients with dopa-sensitivity < 30% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Our aim was to, firstly, identify characteristics at first-episode of psychosis that are associated with later antipsychotic treatment resistance (TR) and, secondly, to develop a parsimonious prediction model for TR.Methods: We combined data from ten prospective, first-episode psychosis cohorts from across Europe and categorised patients as TR or non-treatment resistant (NTR) after a mean follow up of 4.18 years (s.d. = 3.20) for secondary data analysis. We identified a list of potential predictors from clinical and demographic data recorded at first-episode. These potential predictors were entered in two models: a multivariable logistic regression to identify which were independently associated with TR and a penalised logistic regression, which performed variable selection, to produce a parsimonious prediction model. This model was internally validated using a 5-fold, 50-repeat cross-validation optimism-correction.Results: Our sample consisted of N = 2216 participants of which 385 (17 %) developed TR. Younger age of psychosis onset and fewer years in education were independently associated with increased odds of developing TR. The prediction model selected 7 out of 17 variables that, when combined, could quantify the risk of being TR better than chance. These included age of onset, years in education, gender, BMI, relationship status, alcohol use, and positive symptoms. The optimism-corrected area under the curve was 0.59 (accuracy = 64 %, sensitivity = 48 %, and specificity = 76 %).Implications: Our findings show that treatment resistance can be predicted, at first-episode of psychosis. Pending a model update and external validation, we demonstrate the potential value of prediction models for TR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Computer-aided chest X-ray analysis (CAD) provides scores to indicate tuberculosis (TB) likelihood. • Current practice involves selecting a threshold for binary classification of images. • In this proof-of-concept study, we suggest a new approach for CAD-based TB triage. • With data from 4,733 individuals, we developed models to predict the probability of TB. • Models including CAD scores and clinical data outperformed threshold-based CAD use. Computer-aided detection (CAD) software packages quantify tuberculosis (TB)-compatible chest X-ray (CXR) abnormality as continuous scores. In practice, a threshold value is selected for binary CXR classification. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of an alternative approach to applying CAD for TB triage: incorporating CAD scores in multivariable modeling. We pooled individual patient data from four studies. Separately, for two commercial CAD, we used logistic regression to model microbiologically confirmed TB. Models included CAD score, study site, age, sex, human immunodeficiency virus status, and prior TB. We compared specificity at target sensitivities ≥90% between the multivariable model and the current threshold-based approach for CAD use. We included 4,733/5,640 (84%) participants with complete covariate data (median age 36 years; 45% female; 22% with prior TB; 22% people living with human immunodeficiency virus). A total of 805 (17%) had TB. Multivariable models demonstrated excellent performance (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% confidence interval]: software A, 0.91 [0.90-0.93]; software B, 0.92 [0.91-0.93]). Compared with threshold scores, multivariable models increased specificity (e.g., at 90% sensitivity, threshold vs model specificity [95% confidence interval]: software A, 71% [68-74%] vs 75% [74-77%]; software B, 69% [63-75%] vs 75% [74-77%]). Using CAD scores in multivariable models outperformed the current practice of CAD-threshold-based CXR classification for TB diagnosis. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Early screening and accurately identifying Acute Appendicitis (AA) among patients with undifferentiated symptoms associated with appendicitis during their emergency visit will improve patient safety and health care quality. The aim of the study was to compare models that predict AA among patients with undifferentiated symptoms at emergency visits using both structured data and free-text data from a national survey. Methods We performed a secondary data analysis on the 2005-2017 United States National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) data to estimate the association between emergency department (ED) patients with the diagnosis of AA, and the demographic and clinical factors present at ED visits during a patient’s ED stay. We used binary logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models incorporating natural language processing (NLP) to predict AA diagnosis among patients with undifferentiated symptoms. Results Among the 40,441 ED patients with assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes of AA and appendicitis-related symptoms between 2005 and 2017, 655 adults (2.3%) and 256 children (2.2%) had AA. For the LR model identifying AA diagnosis among adult ED patients, the c-statistic was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69–0.75) for structured variables only, 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69–0.75) for unstructured variables only, and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.76–0.80) when including both structured and unstructured variables. For the LR model identifying AA diagnosis among pediatric ED patients, the c-statistic was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.79–0.89) for including structured variables only, 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72–0.84) for unstructured variables, and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.83–0.91) when including both structured and unstructured variables. The RF method showed similar c-statistic to the corresponding LR model. Conclusions We developed predictive models that can predict the AA diagnosis for adult and pediatric ED patients, and the predictive accuracy was improved with the inclusion of NLP elements and approaches.

Background: Healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 infections need to be explored further. Our study is an analysis of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) and ambulatory healthcare workers (aHCWs) with SARS-CoV-2 across the pandemic in a Belgian university hospital. Methods: We compared HAIs with community-associated infections (CAIs) to identify the factors associated with having an HAI. We then performed a genomic cluster analysis of HAIs and aHCWs. We used this alongside the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) case source classifications of an HAI. Results: Between March 2020 and March 2022, 269 patients had an HAI. A lower BMI, a worse frailty index, lower C-reactive protein (CRP), and a higher thrombocyte count as well as death and length of stay were significantly associated with having an HAI. Using those variables to predict HAIs versus CAIs, we obtained a positive predictive value (PPV) of 83.6% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 82.2%; the area under the ROC was 0.89. Genomic cluster analyses and representations on epicurves and minimal spanning trees delivered further insights into HAI dynamics across different pandemic waves. The genomic data were also compared with the clinical ECDC definitions for HAIs; we found that 90.0% of the 'definite', 87.8% of the 'probable', and 70.3% of the 'indeterminate' HAIs belonged to one of the twenty-two COVID-19 genomic clusters we identified. Conclusions: We propose a novel prediction model for HAIs. In addition, we show that the management of nosocomial outbreaks will benefit from genome sequencing analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to high perishability and poor distribution management, strawberry is one of the most frequently discarded fruits. The aim of this study was to develop a non-destructive system for accurate estimation of shelf-life of strawberries using hyperspectral imaging technology. Harvested strawberries were stored for 9 day at five different temperatures. Shelf-life was calculated based on subjective visual evaluation of appearance attributes (colour, shrivelling, and decay) using a rating scale. Hyperspectral images of strawberries were obtained during cold storage, using a novel handheld push broom line-scanning hyperspectral camera. The model developed by partial least square regression (PLSR) with selected spectra was used to predict appearance scores of strawberries with a coefficient of determination of prediction (R2p) of 0.97 and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEp) of 0.17. The appearance scores from the PLSR model were used to develop a model based on first-order kinetics and Arrhenius equations to predict the remaining shelf-life of the strawberries. The models predicted remaining shelf-life with R2p of 0.86 and RMSEp of 1.4 days. Prediction models were also developed for other quality attributes and biochemical properties (weight loss, ascorbic acid, and soluble solids). The results from this study support the development a non-destructive system for the accurate estimation of shelf-life of strawberries. A system that could potentially offer objective quality assessment as product moves through the supply chain, aiding decision making and facilitating proactive actions to be taken with the aim of minimising loss/waste; benefiting food supply chain stakeholders across the globe and supporting the drive for zero waste. • Establishing a non-destructive system for shelf-life estimation of strawberries. • Remaining shelf-life of strawberries determined along the supply chain. • Novel system supports for reducing waste along strawberry supply chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Publicly funded healthcare delivery systems use projections to ensure the availability of adequate future service delivery. Planning cycles need to consider infrastructure, human resources, and other essential requirements with an adequate lead time. Projections are fraught with challenges due to multiple unknowns but new developments in modeling may be useful. Approach We explored the available data to determine the best approach to modeling surgical demand. The Manitoba Population Research Data Repository includes 90+ databases linkable at the person level over time. These include the population registry which includes all Manitobans registered for the universal healthcare benefit. Hospital discharge abstracts include over 20 relevant diagnoses (ICD10) and procedure codes for each admission. Medical services claims include all physician services provides with ICD 9CM codes. Fee-for-service physicians are paid based on these and alternate funded physicians are required to submit shadow claims. Results We found 349,171 orthopedic procedures of which 18.1% were absent from the Medical claims files and 551,508 medical claims of which 27.5% lacked a corresponding hospital abstract. We also identified 230,717 ophthalmologic procedures in the hospital data of which 2.5% had no corresponding medical claim; of the 648,826 medical claims 66.2% had no matching hospital abstract. Resource requirements of procedures are reflected in the number and complexity of each procedure performed. Historical changes over time reflect changing demand (population growth and aging) balanced by available resources. Available resources cannot be predicted via modelling. The best fit based on the validation dataset was a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.327%. which translates to 94.7% accuracy. Conclusion Despite the limitations of modeling based on past behavior, we were able to predict surgical demand with 95% accuracy. These projections are valid partly due to the persistence of historical constraints through the validation period. Policies that address these service provision limitations would precipitate a need to adjust the model.

Objectives Prognostication tools reporting personalized mortality risk and survival can improve advance care planning and discussions about end-of-life care. We developed, validated, and implemented a mortality risk algorithm for older adults with diverse care needs in long-term care (LTC) homes, called the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool for LTC (RESPECT-LTC). Approach RESPECT-LTC was developed using routinely-collected health information on residents in LTC homes in Ontario, Canada. Model development used a cohort of LTC residents aged 50 years or older with at least 1 Resident Assessment Instrument—Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) record between January 2010 and December 2016. The primary outcome was mortality 6 months after a RAI-MDS assessment. We used proportional hazards regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering by the individual. We validated this algorithm, temporally, in a cohort of LTC residents who were assessed between January and December 2017. We constructed 37 risk bins based on incremental increases in estimated median survival of ~3 weeks among residents at high risk of death and 3 months among residents with lower mortality risk. We implemented and are evaluating the use of RESPECT-LTC for early identification of palliative care needs in LTC homes across Ontario. Results Development and validation cohorts included 2,228,176 and 328,204 RAI-MDS assessments, respectively. Mean predicted 6-month mortality risk ranged from 1.38% (95% CI 0.63%-1.61%) in the lowest to 91.97% (95% CI 81.47%-99.9%) in the highest risk group. Estimated median survival spanned from 42 days (15 to 128 d at the 25th and 75th percentiles) in the highest risk group to over 8 years (2,066 to 3,428 d) in the lowest risk group. The algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.730 (95% CI 0.726–0.736) in our validation cohort. Conclusion RESPECT-LTC makes use of routinely-collected information to improve the identification of palliative and end-of-life care needs in LTC. Ongoing evaluation will assess its impact on referrals to palliative care, hospitalization at the end of life, and location of death.

The field of health services research studies the health care system by examining outcomes relevant to patients and clinicians but also health economists and policy makers. Such outcomes often include health care spending, and utilization of care services. Building accurate prediction models using reproducible research practices for health services research is important for evidence-based decision making. Several systematic reviews have summarized prediction models for outcomes relevant to health services research, but these systematic reviews do not present a thorough assessment of reproducibility and research quality of the prediction modelling studies. In the present commentary, we discuss how recent advances in prediction modelling in other medical fields can be applied to health services research. We also describe the current status of prediction modelling in health services research, and we summarize available methodological guidance for the development, update, external validation and systematic appraisal of prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to strong competition in the telecom market, telecom companies are facing customer churn problems. For telecom, it is very important to predict the churn of a user to be able to prevent it. Marketing campaigns can be used to prevent churn and thus prevent a decrease in revenue. Usually, the churn prediction is based on behavioural user data, which describes user activity and general user data. In our prediction model, we added social network attributes that describe the social influence of other users on the user's decision to make a churn. Besides standard centrality measures, we developed two new social attributes, which measure the social influence of already churned users. To determine if social network attributes aid in churn prediction precision we created and compared the models based only on the behavioural data and the models with the social attributes and behavioural data. In our work, we propose upgrading the standard Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) model with the part of the model related to Social Network Analysis (SNA), and we use the proposed model in our research. We show that the AutoML can be used to successfully predict telecom churn based on the real data from telecom operators from Bosnia and Herzegovina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hip and knee osteoarthritis is substantially prevalent worldwide, with large numbers of older adults undergoing joint replacement (arthroplasty) every year. A backlog of elective surgery due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and an aging population, has led to substantial issues with access to timely arthroplasty surgery. A potential method to improve the efficiency of arthroplasty services is by increasing the percentage of patients who are listed for surgery from primary care referrals. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, specifically machine learning, provides a potential unexplored solution to correctly and rapidly select suitable patients for arthroplasty surgery. Objective: This study has 2 objectives: (1) develop a cohort of patients with referrals by general practitioners regarding assessment of suitability for hip or knee replacement from National Health Service (NHS) Grampian data via the Grampian Data Safe Haven and (2) determine the demographic, clinical, and imaging characteristics that influence the selection of patients to undergo hip or knee arthroplasty, and develop a tested and validated patient-specific predictive model to guide arthroplasty referral pathways. Methods: The AI to Revolutionise the Patient Care Pathway in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty (ARCHERY) project will be delivered through 2 linked work packages conducted within the Grampian Data Safe Haven and Safe Haven Artificial Intelligence Platform. The data set will include a cohort of individuals aged ≥16 years with referrals for the consideration of elective primary hip or knee replacement from January 2015 to January 2022. Linked pseudo-anonymized NHS Grampian health care data will be acquired including patient demographics, medication records, laboratory data, theatre records, text from clinical letters, and radiological images and reports. Following the creation of the data set, machine learning techniques will be used to develop pattern classification and probabilistic prediction models based on radiological images. Supplemental demographic and clinical data will be used to improve the predictive capabilities of the models. The sample size is predicted to be approximately 2000 patients--a sufficient size for satisfactory assessment of the primary outcome. Cross-validation will be used for development, testing, and internal validation. Evaluation will be performed through standard techniques, such as the C statistic (area under curve) metric, calibration characteristics (Brier score), and a confusion matrix. Results: The study was funded by the Chief Scientist Office Scotland as part of a Clinical Research Fellowship that runs from August 2021 to August 2024. Approval from the North Node Privacy Advisory Committee was confirmed on October 13, 2021. Data collection started in May 2022, with the results expected to be published in the first quarter of 2024. ISRCTN registration has been completed. Conclusions: This project provides a first step toward delivering an automated solution for arthroplasty selection using routinely collected health care data. Following appropriate external validation and clinical testing, this project could substantially improve the proportion of referred patients that are selected to undergo surgery, with a subsequent reduction in waiting time for arthroplasty appointments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The predicted probability of facial fractures in the case of haemosinus and facial fractures on brain scan was 99.8 %. • Conversely, if neither haemosinus nor facial fractures were found on the brain scan, the predicted probability of facial fractures was only 1.3 %. • The simplified model shows that the presence of either facial fractures or of haemosinus on the CT brain scan can be used as screening criteria for the presence of facial fractures. • The absence of blood in the sinuses or facial fractures on a CT brain scan means a CT facial bone scan does not need to be routinely performed in the setting of clinically-determined minor trauma. Facial fractures bleed, resulting in high-density fluid in the sinuses (haemosinus) on computed tomography (CT) scans. A CT brain scan includes most maxillary sinuses in the scan field, which should allow detection of haemosinus as an indirect indicator of a facial fracture without the need for an additional CT facial bone scan, yet no robust evidence for this exists in the literature. The aim of this study was to determine whether the presence of haemosinus on a CT brain scan, alone or in combination with other clinical information, can predict the presence of facial fractures. 1231 adult patients, who had both brain and facial CT scans performed on the same day, were selected from a seven year period. Patients were eligible if scans were requested for trauma. Brain and facial scans were reviewed separately for the presence of facial fractures, haemosinus, emphysema and intra-cranial haemorrhage. Prediction modelling was used to assess whether findings from brain scans could be used to identify patients requiring further CT scanning. The full prediction model included four predictors and showed excellent discrimination (AUROC 0.982; 95 % CI 0.971 – 0.993). A simplified model, more suitable for clinical implementation, used only facial fractures and haemosinus as predictors. This model showed only marginally poorer discrimination (AUROC 0.964; 95 % CI 0.945 – 0.983) and excellent performance on other measures. Based on the excellent performance of the simplified prediction model, we present the Adelaide Facial Bone Rule : The absence of blood in the sinuses or facial fractures on a CT brain scan means a CT facial bone scan does not need to be routinely performed in the setting of clinically-determined minor trauma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]