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The 2010 reform of the status of nurses in the French public hospital sector ended early retirement in exchange for an upgrading of pay scales. We provide an ex ante evaluation of this reform by comparing careers and pensions under the previous and current systems, using the Canopee microsimulation model for local civil servants and public hospital employees. At the individual level, over a nurse’s retired lifetime, the pension increase (27% on average for an annual salary increase of 1.3%) more than offsets the postponement of the retirement age (3.6 years). The outcome for the pension system as a whole depends on the discount assumptions., En 2010, le statut des infirmiers fonctionnaires a été réformé : sortie des emplois de la catégorie active en échange d’une revalorisation des grilles. Nous évaluons cette réforme ex ante en comparant la carrière et la retraite dans l’ancien et dans le nouveau statut avec le modèle de microsimulation Canopée appliqué aux fonctionnaires territoriaux et hospitaliers. Pour l’individu, sur l’ensemble de la retraite, la hausse de pension (en moyenne de 27% pour une hausse annuelle des salaires de 1,3 %) compense largement le report de l’âge de départ (de 3,6 ans). Pour le régime de retraite, le bilan dépend des hypothèses d’actualisation., Dorin Christophe, Marino Anthony, Rabaté Simon, Soulat Laurent. Évaluation de la réforme des infirmiers diplômés d’État sur les dynamiques de carrière et la retraite : une approche par microsimulation. In: Économie & prévision, n°218, 2021. pp. 23-43.

The aim of the thesis is to gain a better understanding of the relationship between education, skills and labor-market outcomes. Based on high-quality skill data from the PIAAC Survey of Adult Skills, Chapter 2 studies the effect of schooling on cognitive skills, exploiting the staggered introduction of a compulsory ninth grade in schools across German federal states. Results suggest that the additional year of schooling increased numeracy skills of basic-track students by 0.2 SD. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of eco-nomic conditions at high-school graduation on college investments, skill formation, and labor-market success. For identification, the analysis exploits business-cycle fluctuations at high-school graduation over a 20-year period across 28 developed countries as source of exogenous variation in labor-market opportunities. Findings suggest that recessions increase college enrolment and graduation, skills, monthly wages, and participation in training activities. Chapter 4 analyzes the role of cognitive skills in explaining differences in university wage premia across countries. Using international data from PIAAC, the study provides evidence that university wage premia vary substantially across countries. Conditioning on skills reduces these differences by about one quarter. While part of the wage premium in each country captures differential selectivity into university, its extent cannot account for the cross-country differences. Results from explorative analyses suggest that part of the contribution of skills to university wage premia reflects a positive skill effect of university education. Chapter 5 analyzes data from the PIAAC Survey of Adult Skills to compare employment probabilities over the working-life cycle for individuals with vocational and general education. An initial employment advantage of vocational education relative to general education turns into a disadvantage later in life. Ziel der Dissertation ist es, ein besseres Verständnis des Ursache-Wirkungs-Zusammenhangs zwischen Bildung, Kompetenzen und Arbeitsmarkterfolg zu schaffen. Kapitel 2 untersucht den Effekt von Bildung auf kognitive Kompetenzen unter Verwendung qualitativ hochwertiger Kompetenzmaße der PIAAC-Studie. Zur Identifizierung des Effekts wird die Variation der Schulzeit basierend auf der deutschen Pflichtschulreform verwendet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Reform Mathekompetenzen um rund 0.2 SD erhöhte. Kapitel 3 untersucht, inwiefern die Arbeitsmarktbedingungen zum Zeitpunkt des Schulabschlusses die tertiäre Bildungsentscheidung, Kompetenzentwicklung und den späteren Arbeitsmarkterfolg beeinflussen. Als Quelle exogener Variation in Arbeitsmarktoptionen wird die Variation in der nationalen Arbeitslosenquote zum Zeitpunkt des Schulabschlusses über einen 20-Jahres-Zeitraum in 28 Ländern herangezogen. Eine hohe Arbeitslosigkeit erhöht die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Universitätsbesuchs, Kompetenzen, sowie den Arbeitsmarkterfolg.Kapitel 4 untersucht mithilfe der PIAAC-Daten, inwieweit kognitive Kompetenzen höhere Löhne von Universitätsabsolventen erklären. Die internationale Variation in Lohnprämien verringert sich um fast 25 Prozent, sobald man für Kompetenzen kontrolliert. Ein Teil der Lohnprämie reflektiert die Selektion von Personen mit höheren Kompetenzen in Universitäten. Allerdings kann diese Selektion nicht die internationalen Unterschiede in Lohnprämien erklären.

This paper presents three applied analysis. Our principal interest is to understand how meso (university level) and macro (national level) contexts interact with micro phenomena such as students’ careers. To achieve this aim, the paper shows a secondary analysis of longitudinal administrative data by means of Sequence Analysis and Event History Models. Furthermore, it shows the results of an additional analysis using a quasi-experimental research on longitudinal data. The paper examines typical pathways of Italian students, by means of administrative information’s on student enrollment from Sapienza University of Rome. The aim of this paper is triple: 1. describe students’ careers in higher education by building a typology of pathways using Sequence Analysis. 2. Identify how socio-economic and macro level characteristics affect students’ careers by multinomial logistic regression model where clusters are used as dependent variables and focus on the study of the “event” by using Event History analysis. 3. Evaluate the Italian Higher Education reform policies and their main outcomes throughout a quasi-experimental research. Mainly, the outcomes show the importance of the warming-up period, the individual choice and the exogenous events after enrolment in determining the success/failure of each career. Our outcomes suggest that Italian universities should rethink the mechanisms available to manage failure and guide student choices.

This paper evaluates the effects of a high school curriculum reform on students’ probability to enroll at university and to choose Science, Technology, Engineering or Mathematics (STEM) as college major. The reform that was introduced in one German state increased the degree of difficulty to graduate from high school by increasing the mandatory instruction time in the core subjects German, a foreign language, mathematics and natural sciences and by raising the graduation requirements. Based on administrative data covering all students, the empirical analysis is carried out by applying a difference- in-differences model. The results show that the reform increased university enrollment rates for both gender. With regard to choosing STEM as college major, we only find a robust positive effect for males.

This paper estimates the causal impact of an upper secondary curriculum reform in Sweden that increased students' course-taking flexibility in year 2000. In the most popular upper secondary program, it led to a significant decrease in mandatory mathematics requirements. Using administrative Swedish data, we estimate the causal impact of the reform on tertiary education outcomes and expected earnings using a differences-in-discontinuity identification strategy. The method compares students born immediately before and after the cutoff date. The inclusion of students born in neighboring non-reform cutoff years enables us to disentangle the school starting age effect from the unconfounded effect of the reform. We find no negative effects of the reduced mathematics requirements. Rather, we find a positive effect of the reform on students' probability of enrolling in, and earning a degree from, tertiary education. Our heterogeneity analysis suggests that relatively disadvantaged students were not negatively affected by the reform. JEL: I21,I23,I26,I28

This doctoral thesis analyses the impact of education and other determinants on labour market outcomes using microeconometric methods. Chapter 1 serves as an introduction. Chapter 2 uses a randomised field experiment among German human resource managers to evaluate which skill signals such as cognitive skills, social skills and maturity are valued by employers when considering the CVs of applicants who enter the labour market. Results indicate that signals in all three studied domains - cognitive skills, social skills, and maturity - affect the probability of being invited for a job interview. GPAs and social skills prove relevant for both genders and both groups of labour-market entrants. The relevance of other signals differs in terms of credibility, relevance, and expectedness by gender and education level. Females are particularly rewarded for IT and language skills and males for maturity. Chapter 3 analyses the impact of beliefs about refugees' education levels on natives' general attitudes towards refugees. In a survey experiment among 5000 university students, we shift respondents' beliefs by providing randomized differing information about education level of refugees. Results show that shifting beliefs towards better education of refugees increases the concerns about labour-market competition of high-skilled natives but does not affect general attitudes. This is because economic aspects are rather unimportant for forming opinions about refugees, as opposed to humanitarian aspects.Chapter 4 analyses the effect of a labour market deregulation on the demand and supply side of the labour market. The deregulation was an amendment to the Trade and Crafts code of Germany regarding the requirement to become self-employed craftsmen. Using individual social security data and micro census data, the project sheds light on the impact of the reform. Results show that while the reform drastically increased the number of businesses in deregulated craft occupations, the effect on earnings and employment for incumbent workers was slightly negative. The reform also failed to increase overall employment in the crafts sector and had no effect on self-employed craftsmen.Chapter 5 analyses the impact of regional structural change caused by exposure to import competition from China and Eastern Europe on vocational occupation choices of adolescents. Manufacturing jobs are skill-specific, while service jobs are more general, meaning they teach transferable skills that can be applied to new jobs or technologies. The analysis shows that despite decreasing employment in manufacturing in their region, adolescents choose more skill-specific occupations in manufacturing. This has negative consequences for their later labour market outcomes. Diese Dissertation untersucht mittels mikroökonometrischer Methoden den Einfluss von Bildung und anderen Determinanten auf den Arbeitsmarkterfolg von Individuen. Kapitel 1 dient als Einleitung. In Kapitel 2 wird der Einfluss von Fähigkeitssignalen wie kognitiven und sozialen Fähigkeiten, auf die Einstellungswahrscheinlichkeit bei Bewerbern auf dem Arbeitsmarkt untersucht. Es handelt sich um ein randomisiertes Feld- bzw. Befragungsexperiment unter einer repräsentativen Stichprobe an Personalleitern in Deutschland. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich Fähigkeitssignale in allen drei untersuchten Kategorien – kognitive und soziale Fähigkeiten sowie Reife – positiv auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit auswirken, zu einem Bewerbungsgespräch eingeladen zu werden. Abschlussnoten und soziale Fähigkeiten erweisen sich für männliche und weibliche Bewerber sowie für Lehrstellenbewerber und Hochschulabsolventen gleichermaßen als relevant. Die Bedeutung anderer Signale unterscheidet sich je nach Geschlecht und Bildungsstand in Bezug auf Glaubwürdigkeit, Relevanz und Erwartung. So spielen IT- und Sprachkenntnisse insbesondere bei weiblichen Bewerbern eine große Rolle, während bei männlichen Bewerbern Reifesignale besonders wichtig sind. In Kapitel 3 geht es um den Einfluss des Bildungsgrades von Flüchtlingen auf die Einstellung von Einheimischen gegenüber Flüchtlingen. In einem Befragungsexperiment mit 5000 Studenten in Deutschland, wird durch zufällige Zuteilung von Informationen über das Bildungsniveau von Flüchtlingen, die Wahrnehmung der Teilnehmer hierzu experimentell verändert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass ein höheres wahrgenommenes Bildungsniveau von Flüchtlingen, Sorgen der Teilnehmer um Wettbewerb auf dem Arbeitsmarkt erhöht, jedoch nicht allgemeine Einstellungen beeinflusst. Dies lässt sich dadurch erklären, dass wirtschaftliche Aspekte den Teilnehmern für ihre Meinungsbildung zu Flüchtlingen relativ unwichtig sind, dafür aber humanitäre Aspekte besonders wichtig. In Kapitel 4 wird der Einfluss einer Arbeitsmarktderegulierung auf die Angebots- sowie Nachfrageseite des Arbeitsmarktes untersucht. Gegenstand der Untersuchung ist die Handwerksnovelle von 2004 und der damit einhergegangene Wegfall des Meisterbriefes als notwendige Qualifikation für die Selbstständigkeit in etwa der Hälfte aller Handwerksberufe. Anhand individualer Sozialversicherungsdaten und Mikrozensusdaten werden die Auswirkungen der Reform für beleuchtet. Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Reform Firm Gründungen erhöht hat aber einen leicht negativen Einfluss auf die Löhne und Beschäftigung von Angestellten hatte, die bereits vor der Reform im jeweiligen Handwerk gearbeitet haben. Auch hat die Reform insgesamt nicht zur Erhöhung der Beschäftigung im Handwerk beigetragen und hatte keinen statistisch signifikanten Einfluss auf die Selbständigen Handwerker. Kapitel 5 schließlich untersucht den Einfluss von regionalem strukturellen Wandel, der durch Importe aus China und Osteuropa verursacht wird, auf die Wahl der Ausbildungsberufe von Jugendlichen. Fertigungsberufe vermitteln eher spezielle Fähigkeiten, während Dienstleistungsberufe eher allgemeine Fähigkeiten vermitteln, die sich in anderen Bereichen anwenden lassen und somit vor Arbeitslosigkeit schützen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Jugendliche, die in Regionen mit erhöhtem Importdruck aufwachsen, trotzdem eher Ausbildungen in Fertigungsberufen wählen, anstelle von Dienstleistungsberufen. Dies hat negative Auswirkungen auf den späteren Arbeitsmarkterfolg der Jugendlichen.

Introduction: The administrative reform is one of the means to achieve economic social and cultural policy development. Given the necessity of administrative reform monitoring, this study aimed to identify and measure the indicators of administrative reform in the medical school of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. Methods: A mixed sequential qualitative-quantitative approach was employed. The indicators of evaluation were identified through document analysis. In the first phase, 8 semi-structured interviews and the views of 5 experts were collected. Then, we used a researcher- developed checklist to evaluate the current status of the selected school. The checklist was completed through on-site visiting, observation, interview and document review which were then analyzed manually. Results: A set of 150 indicators of administrative reform evaluation, categorized in 10 domains and 36 areas was identified. The total score of evaluation was 28%. The employment equity and payment system domain showed the highest score (55%) and the organizing of human resources domain lowest score. Conclusion: Given the relatively poor results of the administrative reform and the continuity of the reform in Iran development plans, we recommend accelerating the efforts of defining and implementing the administrative reform. Our developed checklist can be used by policy makers and managers.

Leder hårdare straff till färre brott? Det sambandet ämnar vi undersöka i denna uppsats. För att att göra det analyserar vi 2010 års straffmätningsreform som förlängde straffen för allvarliga våldsbrott. Reformen påverkade vissa brott men inte alla, vilket vi utnyttjar som ett naturligt experiment i en difference-indifferencesansats. De brottstyper som påverkades används som behandlingsgrupp, medan de som inte påverkades används som jämförelsegrupp. Därefter tolkas skillnaden i förändring hos de båda gruppernas brottsfrekvenser ut. När hela efterperioden analyseras finner vi ingen statistiskt signifikant effekt. Analyseras varje år i efterperioden för sig finner vi en negativ och statistiskt signifikant effekt på 14,9 % av reformen året efter den trädde i kraft (2011). Do longer prison sentences lead to fewer committed crimes? This paper pursues to evaluate this causation through a difference-in-differences analysis. In 2010, there was a reform in Sweden that meant to make prison sentences longer for some crimes. The fact that the reform affected some crimes but not others is exploited as a natural experiment. We use the types of crime that were affected by the reform as a treatment group and the types of crime that were not affected as a control group. Then we assess the difference in frequency change of the two groups of crimes after the reform took effect. When the whole post reform period is analyzed, we find no statistically significant effects. When the effect is isolated one year after the reform was implemented (2011) we find a statistically significant effect of 14.9 %. There is no statistically significant result when the reform is isolated for 2012 and 2013.

In 2005, France implemented a gatekeeping reform designed to improve care coordination and to reduce utilization of specialists’ services. Under this policy, patients designate a médecin traitant, typically a general practitioner, who will be their first point of contact during an episode of care and who will provide referrals to specialists. A key element of the policy is that patients who self-refer to a specialist face higher cost sharing than if they received a referral from their médecin traitant. We consider the effect of this policy on the utilization of physician services. Our analysis of administrative claims data spanning the years 2000–2008 indicates that visits to specialists, which were increasing in the years prior to the implementation of the reform, fell after the policy was in place. Additional evidence from the administrative claims as well as survey data suggest that this decline arose from a reduction in self-referrals, which is consistent with the objectives of the policy. Visits fell significantly both for specialties targeted by the policy and specialties for which self-referrals are still allowed for certain treatments. This apparent spillover effect may suggest that, at least initially, patients did not understand the subtleties of the policy.