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In many animal species, sexually mature individuals may skip breeding opportunities despite a likely negative impact on fitness. In spatio‐temporally heterogeneous environments, habitat selection theory predicts that individuals select habitats where fitness prospects are maximized. Individuals are attracted to high‐quality habitat patches where they compete for high‐quality breeding sites. Since failures in contests to secure a site may prevent individuals from breeding, we hypothesized that attraction to and competition for high‐quality habitats could shape breeding propensity.Under this hypothesis, we predicted the two following associations between breeding propensity and two key population features. (1) When mean habitat quality in the population increases in multiple patches such that availability of high‐quality sites increases across the population, the resulting decrease in competition should positively affect breeding propensity. (2) When the number of individuals increases in the population, the resulting increase in competitors should negatively affect breeding propensity (negative density dependence).Using long‐term data from kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, we checked the prerequisite of prediction (1), that availability of high‐quality sites is positively associated with current mean habitat quality in the population (represented by breeding success). We then applied integrated population modelling to quantify annual fluctuations in population mean breeding success, breeding propensity and number of individuals by breeding status (pre‐breeders, breeders, skippers and immigrants), and tested our predictions.Our results showed that breeding propensity acts as an important driver of population growth. As expected, breeding propensity was positively associated with preceding mean habitat quality in the population, and negatively with the number of competitors. These relationships varied depending on breeding status, which likely reflects status dependence in competitive ability.These findings highlight the importance of competition for high‐quality breeding sites in shaping breeding propensity. Thereby, we draw attention towards alternative and complementary explanations to more standard considerations regarding the energetic cost of reproduction, and point to possible side effects of habitat selection behaviours on individual life histories and population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although climate change has been implicated in population declines of tropical forest birds, there is a critical lack of data on the mechanisms underlying these declines. Attempts to link climatic factors to variation in adult survival, fecundity or nest success have been largely inconclusive. Recent community‐scale analyses have suggested that tropical birds may be less likely to breed under adverse conditions, but long‐term data on individual reproduction are needed to test this hypothesis. Here we leverage 12 years of data on a lowland forest bird, the greater ani Crotophaga major, to investigate how demographic parameters vary with phase of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major driver of climatic conditions in tropical wet forest. The likelihood of breeding and annual reproductive rate both decreased dramatically in El Niño‐like years, with only 37.5% of adults attempting breeding in 2015 (a strong El Niño year). For birds that did breed, however, clutch size and daily nest predation rate were unaffected by climate. Of the local climate variables investigated, dry season length and the frequency of high temperatures were most closely associated with reproductive failure. These results indicate that El Niño conditions alter the demography of greater anis by reducing the likelihood of reproduction, a response that may be more widespread than currently recognized. We suggest that reduced reproduction under adverse conditions represents an important and understudied aspect of the life histories of tropical forest birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermittent breeding, in which an adult skips a breeding opportunity, can represent a non-adaptive constraint or an adaptive response to the tradeoff between current and future reproduction. In group-living animals, the social group may also affect the frequency of reproduction, but this possibility has received little attention. Here we use an 11-year data set to investigate intermittent breeding in the greater ani (Crotophaga major), a tropical bird that nests in stable breeding groups containing several unrelated co-breeding females. Population-wide, an average of 62% of females laid eggs in a given year (range 35–84%), and the average female failed to lay eggs once every 3.2 years. We found little support for the hypothesis that intermittent breeding reflects a tradeoff between current and future reproduction: breeding in year t did not affect a female's likelihood of breeding in year t + 1, and clutch size in year t did not affect clutch size in year t + 1. Increases in clutch size were associated with decreases in egg mass for eggs laid at the end of that clutch, but this did not affect subsequent nesting attempts. However, reproductive skipping was associated with changes in group membership. Females whose groups changed in composition after year t were significantly less likely to breed in year t + 1 than females whose groups remained stable. These results indicate that breeding group stability influences the frequency of reproduction, suggesting that transitions between groups may be costly to females and their mates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermittent breeding by which organisms skip some current reproductive opportunities in order to enhance future reproductive success is a common life history trade‐off among long‐lived, iteroparous species. The southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina engages in intermediate breeding when body condition is low. While it is anticipated that this strategy may increase the lifetime reproductive output of this species, the conditions under which reproductive skipping are predicted to occur are not clear. Here I develop a dynamic state variable model based on published data that examines when southern elephant seals are predicted to optimally skip reproduction in order to maximize lifetime reproductive output as a function of current body mass, maternal age, and survivorship. I demonstrate that the optimal reproductive strategy for this species can include reproductive skipping, and that the conditions where this is optimal depend on patterns of mass‐dependent adult female survival. I further show that intermittent breeding can increase lifetime reproductive output, and that the magnitude of this benefit increases with the ability of individual animals to replenish depleted body mass through foraging. Finally, I show that when the environment is variable and foraging is reduced in bad years, the benefit of adopting an optimal strategy that includes reproductive skipping increases asymptotically with the frequency of bad years. These results highlight the importance of characterizing the pattern of adult survival in this species, as well as the need to identify other factors that may influence the prevalence and benefits of reproductive skipping. This study models the optimal reproductive strategy of the southern elephant seal using dynamic state variable modeling. I show that reproductive skipping is optimal under conditions that depend on adult female mass‐dependent survival, and that reproductive skipping can lead to higher lifetime reproductive output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Adult individuals that do not breed in a given year occur in a wide range of natural populations. However, such nonbreeders are often ignored in theoretical and empirical population studies, limiting our knowledge of how nonbreeders affect realized and estimated population dynamics and potentially impeding projection of deterministic and stochastic population growth rates. 2. We present and analyse a general modelling framework for systems where breeders and nonbreeders differ in key demographic rates, incorporating different forms of nonbreeding, different life histories and frequency-dependent effects of nonbreeders on demographic rates of breeders. 3. Comparisons of estimates of deterministic population growth rate, λ, and demographic variance, σd², from models with and without distinct nonbreeder classes show that models that do not explicitly incorporate nonbreeders give upwardly biased estimates of σd², particularly when the equilibrium ratio of nonbreeders to breeders, N*nb/N*b, is high. Estimates of k from empirical observations of breeders only are substantially inflated when individuals frequently re-enter the breeding population after periods of nonbreeding. 4. Sensitivity analyses of diverse parameterizations of our model framework, with and without negative frequency-dependent effects of nonbreeders on breeder demographic rates, show how changes in demographic rates of breeders vs. nonbreeders differentially affect k. In particular, λ is most sensitive to nonbreeder parameters in long-lived species, when N*nb/N*b > 0, and when individuals are unlikely to breed at several consecutive time steps. 5. Our results demonstrate that failing to account for nonbreeders in population studies can obscure low population growth rates that should cause management concern. Quantifying the size and demography of the nonbreeding section of populations and modelling appropriate demographic structuring is therefore essential to evaluate nonbreeders' influence on deterministic and stochastic population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index ( SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches., We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies., We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction., Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal., Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trade-off between current and future reproduction plays an important role in demographic analyses. This can be revealed by the relationship between the number of years without reproduction and reproductive investment within a reproductive year. However, estimating both the duration between two successive breeding season and reproductive effort is often limited by variable recapture or resighting effort. Moreover, a supplementary difficulty is raised when nonbreeder individuals are not present sampling breeding grounds, and are therefore unobservable. We used capture–recapture (CR) models to investigate intermittent breeding and reproductive effort to test a putative physiological trade-off in a long-lived species with intermittent breeding, the leatherback sea turtle. We used CR data collected on breeding females on Awa:la-Ya:lima:po beach (French Guiana, South America) from 1995 to 2002. By adding specific constraints in multistate (MS) CR models incorporating several nonobservable states, we modelled the breeding cycle in leatherbacks and then estimated the reproductive effort according to the number of years elapsed since the last nesting season. Using this MS CR framework, the mean survival rate was estimated to 0.91 and the average resighting probability to 0.58 (ranged from 0.30 to 0.99). The breeding cycle was found to be limited to 3 years. These results therefore suggested that animals whose observed breeding intervals are greater than 3 years were most likely animals that escaped detection during their previous nesting season(s). CR data collected in 2001 and 2002 allowed us to compare the individual reproductive effort between females that skipped one breeding season and females that skipped two breeding seasons. These inferences led us to conclude that a trade-off between current and future reproduction exists in leatherbacks nesting in French Guiana, likely linked to the resource provisioning required to invest in reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]