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While the dominant role of halogens in Arctic ozone loss during spring has been widely studied in the last decades, the impact of sea-ice halogens on surface ozone abundance over the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes remains unquantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art global chemistry-climate model including polar halogens (Cl, Br, and I), which reproduces Arctic ozone seasonality, to show that Arctic sea-ice halogens reduce surface ozone in the NH mid-latitudes (47°N to 60°N) by ~11% during spring. This background ozone reduction follows the southward export of ozone-poor and halogen-rich air masses from the Arctic through polar front intrusions toward lower latitudes, reducing the springtime tropospheric ozone column within the NH mid-latitudes by ~4%. Our results also show that the present-day influence of Arctic halogens on surface ozone destruction is comparatively smaller than in preindustrial times driven by changes in the chemical interplay between anthropogenic pollution and natural halogens. We conclude that the impact of Arctic sea-ice halogens on NH mid-latitude ozone abundance should be incorporated into global models to improve the representation of ozone seasonality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is the largest and clearest signal of anthropogenic climate change. Current projections indicate that the first ice-free Arctic summer will likely occur by mid-century, owing to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. However, other powerful greenhouse gases have also contributed to Arctic sea ice loss, notably ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the late 1980s, ODSs became strictly regulated by the Montreal Protocol, and their atmospheric concentrations have been declining since the mid-1990s. Here, analyzing new climate model simulations, we demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol, designed to protect the ozone layer, is delaying the first appearance of an ice-free Arctic summer, by up to 15 y, depending on future emissions. We also show that this important climate mitigation stems entirely from the reduced greenhouse gas warming from the regulated ODSs, with the avoided stratospheric ozone losses playing no role. Finally, we estimate that each Gg of averted ODS emissions results in approximately 7 km2 of avoided Arctic sea ice loss.

Diatom assemblages from ARA2B-1A taken in the Chukchi Sea shelf were analyzed to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes during the last 10 ka BP. The main factors controlling the distribution of diatom in the Chukchi Sea are the relatively warm and nutrient-rich Pacific water inflow after the opening of the Bering Strait. Based on the selected diatoms, three diatom assemblage zones are identified. The diatom assemblage zone I shows a rare or very low abundance, which corresponds to the early Holocene (10–8 ka BP). The diatom assemblage zone II corresponds to the mid-to-late Holocene (8–2 ka BP). It is a seasonal sea-ice environment with relatively abundant diatom valves and Chaetoceors resting spores, as well as sea-ice species, cold-water species, coastal species, and upwelling species. The diatom assemblage zone III corresponds to the late Holocene (2–0 ka BP), and the the sea-ice species generally decreased compared to zone II, while the coastal species Paralia sulcata occurred abundantly. In particular, the Thalassiosira antarctica, a cold-water species, increased distinctly during this time interval. After ∼2 ka BP, T. antarctica rapidly increased while sea-ice species rarely appeared, indicating limited open-marine environments. In particular, after 1 ka BP, T. antarctica decreased while the sea-ice species increased, suggesting that the sea-ice increased again before the recent global warming of the Arctic, the late Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly‐varying North Atlantic (20°N–50°N) freshwater flux forcing in state‐of‐the‐art global climate model (GCM), the Community Earth System Model. Results are presented of a full hysteresis simulation (4,400 model years) and show that there is a hysteresis width of about 0.4 Sv. This demonstrates that an AMOC collapse and recovery do not only occur in conceptual and idealized climate models, but also in a state‐of‐the‐art GCM. The AMOC recovery is about a factor six faster than the AMOC collapse and this asymmetry is due to the major effect of the North Atlantic sea‐ice distribution on the AMOC recovery. The results have implications for projections of possible future AMOC behavior and for explaining relatively rapid climate transitions in the geological past. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element in the climate system. We here simulate AMOC tipping events by slowly varying the North Atlantic freshwater forcing in a state‐of‐the‐art global climate model. The AMOC collapses when this forcing is sufficiently large and, when reversing this forcing, the recovery occurs at much smaller values of the forcing than the collapse, giving rise to hysteresis behavior. The AMOC changes are much faster during its recovery than during its collapse and this asymmetry is caused by the effect of the North Atlantic sea‐ice distribution on the AMOC recovery. The results demonstrate that AMOC tipping does not only occur in simplified climate models, but in a large hierarchy of climate models. Key Points: A wide Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) hysteresis is found in a state‐of‐the‐art global climate modelThe AMOC recovery is about six times faster than the AMOC collapseThe North Atlantic sea‐ice cover plays a dominant role in the hysteresis asymmetry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly‐varying North Atlantic (20°N–50°N) freshwater flux forcing in state‐of‐the‐art global climate model (GCM), the Community Earth System Model. Results are presented of a full hysteresis simulation (4,400 model years) and show that there is a hysteresis width of about 0.4 Sv. This demonstrates that an AMOC collapse and recovery do not only occur in conceptual and idealized climate models, but also in a state‐of‐the‐art GCM. The AMOC recovery is about a factor six faster than the AMOC collapse and this asymmetry is due to the major effect of the North Atlantic sea‐ice distribution on the AMOC recovery. The results have implications for projections of possible future AMOC behavior and for explaining relatively rapid climate transitions in the geological past.

The role of temperature advection in the Arctic lower troposphere under changing level of global warming is investigated using a large-ensemble climate simulation dataset. Taking the 30-year climatology of the non-warming simulation (HPB-NAT) as a reference, we examined the difference in temperature advection under changing basic states of the historical experiment (HPB) and 2 K and 4 K warming experiments (HFB-2K and HFB-4K) and decomposed them into terms related to dynamical changes, thermodynamical changes and the eddy term which is a covariance term related to the effect of sub-monthly transient eddies. Under the HPB experiment, it was found that the total change in advection hangs in a balance between the positive signal located along the sea-ice boundary in the North Atlantic and along the Eurasian continent driven by a stronger dynamical term and a negative signal in the thermodynamical term and eddy term. It is found that with the progression of global warming the dynamical term of advection increases due to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, but the thermodynamical term and eddy term decrease due to weaker temperature gradient and increased sensible heat flux from the newly opened ice-free ocean, respectively. Atmospheric temperature advection terms related to large-scale atmospheric circulation partially cancels one another, and the relative importance of the eddy term diverging locally induced sensible heat from the newly opened ice-free ocean dominates as global warming progresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) accounts for 15% of the Southern Ocean's primary production (PP), but limited data has hindered understanding of its variability and connection to carbon export. Using a combination of gliders, biogeochemical Argo floats and satellite observations in the northeast Weddell Sea, we show that years with more sea‐ice formation over winter are followed by more intense phytoplankton blooms (∼15% greater daily PP) and export to 100 m (∼50% higher daily carbon export) the following summer. However, the carbon export beyond the deepest winter mixed layer did not vary in proportion to PP, suggesting different drivers of carbon export at depth compared to surface waters. Furthermore, across the entire MIZ, the response of blooms to sea‐ice volume was spatially variable, indicating the need to consider spatial heterogeneity in the response of the biological carbon pump to future sea‐ice changes. Plain Language Summary: Algae in the ocean surface take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and transfer it to the deep ocean when they die and sink. This process is key to maintaining a habitable planet and is known as the biological carbon pump (BCP). The seasonally ice‐covered ocean around Antarctica is one of the most active areas for algal growth, but also a region of rapid climate change. Because of the difficulty in taking measurements in this remote region, the physical and biological processes that control the growth and sinking of algae and its response to changing sea‐ice remain uncertain. In this study, we use a combination of satellites and autonomous robots to elucidate the role of sea‐ice variability on the BCP. We find that sea‐ice impacts algal growth by its influence on both the light and nutrient conditions needed for photosynthesis. Predicting the amount of algae that subsequently sinks to depth as carbon flux, although influenced by sea‐ice conditions, is more complex and linked to the greater marine ecosystem. Evidence suggests that the species of algae, zooplankton grazing, and the rate at which dead algae breaks down and sinks are important and should be a focus point for further research. Key Points: High‐resolution in‐situ observations are used to characterize multi‐year phytoplankton bloom phenology and amplitude in the Antarctic Marginal Ice ZoneYears with greater sea‐ice volume drive deeper mixing that tend to support higher magnitude blooms in the northeast Weddell SeaCarbon export efficiency is affected by bloom magnitude, community composition and water column stratification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmosphere and cryosphere have recently garnered considerable attention due to their role in transporting microplastics to and within the Arctic, and between freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments. While investigating either in isolation provides valuable insight on the fate of microplastics in the Arctic, monitoring both provides a more holistic view. Nonetheless, despite the recent scientific interest, fundamental knowledge on microplastic abundance and consistent monitoring efforts are lacking for these compartments. Here, we build upon the work of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme's Monitoring Guidelines for Litter and Microplastic to provide a roadmap for multicompartment monitoring of the atmosphere and cryosphere to support our understanding of the sources, pathways, and sinks of plastic pollution across the Arctic. Overall, we recommend the use of existing standard techniques for ice and atmospheric sampling and to build upon existing monitoring efforts in the Arctic to obtain a more comprehensive pan-Arctic view of microplastic pollution in these two compartments.

Abstract The Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) accounts for 15% of the Southern Ocean's primary production (PP), but limited data has hindered understanding of its variability and connection to carbon export. Using a combination of gliders, biogeochemical Argo floats and satellite observations in the northeast Weddell Sea, we show that years with more sea‐ice formation over winter are followed by more intense phytoplankton blooms (∼15% greater daily PP) and export to 100 m (∼50% higher daily carbon export) the following summer. However, the carbon export beyond the deepest winter mixed layer did not vary in proportion to PP, suggesting different drivers of carbon export at depth compared to surface waters. Furthermore, across the entire MIZ, the response of blooms to sea‐ice volume was spatially variable, indicating the need to consider spatial heterogeneity in the response of the biological carbon pump to future sea‐ice changes.

Sea-ice identification is an essential process for safety critical navigation support of surface vessels in polar waters. Semantic segmentation has drawn much attention as an enabling technique for fast detection of objects in a scene including sea-ice conditions. Identifying sea-ice is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of raindrops. The raindrop alters the boundaries of the objects in the scene, and thus, degrades the identification performance. In this work, a raindrop removing framework is developed to enhance the classification performance. Three deep-learning semantic segmentation networks are trained to classify the scene of sea-ice images into ice, water, ship, and sky. The deep-learning networks are VGG-16, fully convolutional network, and pyramid scene parsing network. Transfer learning along with data augmentation operations have been implemented to improve the training process. Results illustrate that data augmentation operations enhance the performance of the three models. Moreover, the raindrop removing framework improves the models’ performance, e.g. the average intersection over union of the VGG-16 model is improved from 85.91% to 91.70%.

This study investigates the interdecadal variation of the intensity of the interannual variability (IIV) of surface air temperature (SAT) over mid‐ and high‐latitude Asia (MHLA) in winter months (December–February) during 1980–2015 and the role of the Arctic sea‐ice. Results show only the IIV of February SAT is significantly enhanced around the late‐1990s, which partly results from enhanced IIV of the frequency of extreme warm and cold events (FEWE and FECE). The influence of the sea‐ice in the Barents Sea from December to February on the February SAT, FEWE and FECE over MHLA is remarkably enhanced around the late‐1990s. During 1998–2015, the sea‐ice anomalies contribute to the enhanced IIV of February SAT over MHLA by modulating the monthly and synoptic tripole patterns over northern Eurasia, the positive phase of which exhibits an anomalous low over Eurasia north of 60°N and anomalous highs over southern Europe and MHLA. On the monthly average, the increased sea‐ice induces Rossby waves and then a positive phase of the monthly tripole pattern, inducing weakened East Asian trough and Siberian high, enhanced westerlies over 50°–70°N, and resultant decreased blocking high frequency over Eurasia north of 60°N. These anomalies favor increased February SAT over MHLA. On synoptic timescales, the increased blocking over the north side of the Ural Mountains favors more (fewer) extreme positive (negative) phases of the synoptic tripole pattern and hence increased FEWE (decreased FECE) over MHLA, further strengthening the increased SAT. Numerical experiments basically confirm the mechanisms above. Key Points: Intensity of interannual variability of February surface air temperature over mid‐ and high‐latitude Asia reinforces after 1998Intensity of interannual variability of frequency of February extreme warm and cold events over the region is enhanced after 1998Sea‐ice anomalies in the Barents Sea play an important role via modulating monthly and synoptic circulation over northern Eurasia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper establishes the local-in-time well-posedness of solutions to an approximating system constructed by mildly regularizing the dynamical sea-ice model of W.D. Hibler, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1979. Our choice of regularization has been carefully designed, prompted by physical considerations, to retain the original coupled hyperbolic-parabolic character of Hibler’s model. Various regularized versions of this model have been used widely for the numerical simulation of the circulation and thickness of the Arctic ice cover. However, due to the singularity in the ice rheology, the notion of solutions to the original model is unclear. Instead, an approximating system, which captures current numerical study, is proposed. The well-posedness theory of such a system provides a first-step groundwork in both numerical study and future analytical study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correctly representing the snow on sea‐ice has great potential to improve cryosphere‐atmosphere coupling in forecasting and monitoring (e.g., reanalysis) applications, via improved modeling of surface temperature, albedo and emissivity. This can also enhance the all‐weather all‐surface coupled data assimilation for atmospheric satellite radiances. Using wintertime observations from two Arctic field campaigns, SHEBA and N‐ICE2015, and satellite data, we explore the merits of different approaches to represent the snow over sea‐ice in a set of 5‐day coupled forecasts. Results show that representing the snow insulation effects is essential for capturing the wintertime surface temperature variability over sea‐ice and its response to changes in the atmospheric forcing. Modeling the snow over sea‐ice improves the representation of strong cooling events, reduces surface temperature biases in clear‐sky conditions and improves the simulation of surface‐based temperature inversions. In clear‐sky conditions, when using a multi‐layer snow scheme the root‐mean‐squared error in the surface temperature is reduced by about 60% for both N‐ICE2015 and SHEBA. This study also highlights the role of compensating errors in different components of the surface energy budget in the Arctic boundary layer. During warm air intrusions, errors in the surface temperature increase when cloud phase and cloud radiative processes are misrepresented in the model, inducing large errors in the net radiative energy at the surface. This work indicates that numerical weather prediction systems can fully benefit from a better representation of snow over sea‐ice, for example, with multi‐layer snow schemes, combined with improvements to other boundary layer processes including mixed phase clouds. Plain Language Summary: Correctly representing the snow on sea‐ice in coupled numerical weather prediction models has great potential to improve weather forecast and climate monitoring applications, such as climate reanalyses, which are usually produced using such systems. In this study two different methodologies to account for the effect of the snowpack accumulating over the sea‐ice in 5‐day global forecasts are compared. All experiments are performed with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. The presence of snow over sea‐ice enables an improved representation of extreme low temperatures occurring in the Arctic, and so reducing surface temperature errors in clear‐sky conditions. This study also investigates feedbacks between errors in processes controlling the surface temperature evolution in the wintertime Arctic boundary layer, and how more realistic representations of the snowpack accumulating on sea‐ice are affected by these. This work indicates that numerical weather prediction systems can fully benefit from a better representation of snow over sea‐ice, for example, with a multi‐layer snow scheme, combined with further improvements to other boundary layer processes. Key Points: Accounting for the snow over sea‐ice enables strong cooling events and extreme low temperatures in the Arctic to be better representedAccounting for the snow over sea‐ice improves the representation of Arctic winter states in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting SystemCompensating errors between cloud and surface processes are a key factor affecting the near‐surface forecast biases in the Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Correctly representing the snow on sea‐ice has great potential to improve cryosphere‐atmosphere coupling in forecasting and monitoring (e.g., reanalysis) applications, via improved modeling of surface temperature, albedo and emissivity. This can also enhance the all‐weather all‐surface coupled data assimilation for atmospheric satellite radiances. Using wintertime observations from two Arctic field campaigns, SHEBA and N‐ICE2015, and satellite data, we explore the merits of different approaches to represent the snow over sea‐ice in a set of 5‐day coupled forecasts. Results show that representing the snow insulation effects is essential for capturing the wintertime surface temperature variability over sea‐ice and its response to changes in the atmospheric forcing. Modeling the snow over sea‐ice improves the representation of strong cooling events, reduces surface temperature biases in clear‐sky conditions and improves the simulation of surface‐based temperature inversions. In clear‐sky conditions, when using a multi‐layer snow scheme the root‐mean‐squared error in the surface temperature is reduced by about 60% for both N‐ICE2015 and SHEBA. This study also highlights the role of compensating errors in different components of the surface energy budget in the Arctic boundary layer. During warm air intrusions, errors in the surface temperature increase when cloud phase and cloud radiative processes are misrepresented in the model, inducing large errors in the net radiative energy at the surface. This work indicates that numerical weather prediction systems can fully benefit from a better representation of snow over sea‐ice, for example, with multi‐layer snow schemes, combined with improvements to other boundary layer processes including mixed phase clouds.

Arctic marine environments are experiencing rapid changes due to the polar amplification of global warming. These changes impact the habitat of the cold-adapted microbial communities, which underpin biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. We comparatively investigated the differences in prokaryotic and microeukaryotic taxa between summer surface water microbiomes sampled along a latitudinal transect from the ice-free southern Barents Sea and into the sea-ice-covered Nansen Basin to disentangle the dominating community (ecological) selection processes driving phylogenetic diversity. The community structure and richness of each site-specific microbiome were assessed in relation to the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the environment. A strong homogeneous deterministic selection process was inferred across the entire sampling transect via a phylogenetic null modeling approach. The microbial species richness and diversity were not negatively influenced by northward decreasing temperature and salinity. The results also suggest that regional phytoplankton blooms are a major prevalent factor in governing the bacterial community structure. This study supports the consideration that strong homogeneous selection is imposed across these cold-water marine environments uniformly, regardless of geographic assignments within either the Nansen Basin or the Barents Sea.

Palynological analyses of the marine sediment core AMD0509-20 collected north of Whapmagoostui-Kuujjuarapik in Nunavik were performed to investigate past changes in climate and sea-surface conditions based on pollen and spores and dinoflagellate cysts, respectively. Our results show relatively warm sea-surface temperatures before 2600 BP, about 2 °C higher than at present in summer, in addition to higher salinity suggesting relatively low freshwater inputs, thus low precipitation over the watershed. After 2400 years BP, an abrupt drop in sea-surface temperatures was recorded, followed by a decrease in salinity particularly pronounced until ∼2000 years BP. After 1600 years BP, summer sea-surface temperatures and salinity stabilized around current values. The changes recorded in surface waters during the late Holocene can be associated with a regional shift in the hydroclimatic regime that led to a gradual decline of spruce (Picea) in pollen assemblages. • Quantitative regional sea-surface temperature assessment for the last 3000 years. • Significant cooling at ∼2400 years BP. • Salinity estimates suggest increased overall precipitation after 2000 years BP. • Hydroclimatic regime changes from warm and dry to cool and humid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SWIM on board CFOSAT is the first spaceborne, low incidence, rotating scatterometer, aiming at measuring in near‐real time ocean waves spectra. With five off‐nadir beams at incidences between 2° and 10° plus one nadir beam, it covers the Earth in 13 days, including polar regions thanks to its polar orbit. This work aims at exploiting SWIM data over ice regions with two objectives. An off‐nadir data‐based sea‐ice flag is here proposed that allows, first, to eliminate sea‐ice polluted echoes for improving the wave spectrum retrieval, and second, to open perspectives for application of sea‐ice monitoring with near‐nadir Ku‐band active sensors. To this end, the signature of both open water and sea‐ice radar backscatter is parameterized into Geophysical Model Functions. Then, comparisons with observed profiles through a Bayesian scheme provide a probability of sea‐ice presence. After comparison with both model (ECMWF‐IFS) and radiometer (SSMI) derived reference data sets, the proposed flag is found to be ready for operational use. At latitudes greater than 40° in absolute value, the proposed flagging algorithm exhibits accuracies of approximately 98% for all beams compared to SSMI data. Beam to beam performances are characterized and show potential for the characterization of sea‐ice at Ku‐band. Key Points: For the first time, sea‐ice is detected globally from Ku‐band off‐nadir up to 11° incidence thanks to the SWIM/CFOSAT data setsFully analytical Geophysical Model Functions are derived for the Normalized Radar Cross‐Section over open water and sea‐iceA comparison of this new sea‐ice flag with SSMI ice concentration shows a high accuracy of our algorithm [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the wintertime sea-ice production in Arctic polynyas is an important requirement for estimations of the dense water formation, which drives vertical mixing in the upper ocean. Satellite-based techniques incorporating relatively high resolution thermal-infrared data from MODIS in combination with atmospheric reanalysis data have proven to be a strong tool to monitor large and regularly forming polynyas and to resolve narrow thin-ice areas (i.e., leads) along the shelf-breaks and across the entire Arctic Ocean. However, the selection of the atmospheric data sets has a large influence on derived polynya characteristics due to their impact on the calculation of the heat loss to the atmosphere, which is determined by the local thin-ice thickness. In order to overcome this methodical ambiguity, we present a MODIS-assisted temperature adjustment (MATA) algorithm that yields corrections of the 2 m air temperature and hence decreases differences between the atmospheric input data sets. The adjustment algorithm is based on atmospheric model simulations. We focus on the Laptev Sea region for detailed case studies on the developed algorithm and present time series of polynya characteristics in the winter season 2019/2020. It shows that the application of the empirically derived correction decreases the difference between different utilized atmospheric products significantly from 49% to 23%. Additional filter strategies are applied that aim at increasing the capability to include leads in the quasi-daily and persistence-filtered thin-ice thickness composites. More generally, the winter of 2019/2020 features high polynya activity in the eastern Arctic and less activity in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, presumably as a result of the particularly strong polar vortex in early 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian RADARSAT constellation mission (RCM) is represented by three synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites, each of which includes a compact polarimetry (CP) mode. CP is advantageous because it provides increased backscatter information relative to single and conventional dual-polarized modes and has larger swath widths relative to a quad polarization mode. CP captures single-look complex data which can be used to derive the multilook complex (MLC) coherence matrix, or, equivalently, the Stokes vector data of the backscattered field. The challenge is to develop computer vision algorithms that can be used to effectively segment the scene using this new data source. An unsupervised region-based segmentation approach has been designed and implemented that utilizes the complex Wishart distribution characteristic of the MLC CP data. The segmentation method is based on the iterative region growing with semantics algorithm originally designed for single and dual pol intensity SAR data. The algorithm has been tested using both simulated CP SAR images and a pair of available quad polarization SAR images. The results demonstrate that the CP-IRGS algorithm provides more accurate segmentation images than those using only the RH and RV channel intensity images.

Abstract SWIM on board CFOSAT is the first spaceborne, low incidence, rotating scatterometer, aiming at measuring in near‐real time ocean waves spectra. With five off‐nadir beams at incidences between 2° and 10° plus one nadir beam, it covers the Earth in 13 days, including polar regions thanks to its polar orbit. This work aims at exploiting SWIM data over ice regions with two objectives. An off‐nadir data‐based sea‐ice flag is here proposed that allows, first, to eliminate sea‐ice polluted echoes for improving the wave spectrum retrieval, and second, to open perspectives for application of sea‐ice monitoring with near‐nadir Ku‐band active sensors. To this end, the signature of both open water and sea‐ice radar backscatter is parameterized into Geophysical Model Functions. Then, comparisons with observed profiles through a Bayesian scheme provide a probability of sea‐ice presence. After comparison with both model (ECMWF‐IFS) and radiometer (SSMI) derived reference data sets, the proposed flag is found to be ready for operational use. At latitudes greater than 40° in absolute value, the proposed flagging algorithm exhibits accuracies of approximately 98% for all beams compared to SSMI data. Beam to beam performances are characterized and show potential for the characterization of sea‐ice at Ku‐band.

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate‐driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small‐bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic‐wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range‐wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo‐Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955–1984 and 1985–2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea‐ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate‐driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea‐ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals may use long-distance foraging trips to capitalize on spatiotemporal variation in food availability, allowing individuals to maximize resource gain from foraging effort. This is particularly important for dimorphic species with polygynous mating where males face strong selection pressures to attain large size and access to reproductive females. We tracked 17 male Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella , during their prolonged postbreeding trips and assessed links between their movements and environmental predictors of profitable feeding areas. Males made one of two types of trips: a long trip to the Antarctic ice edge or shorter trips to areas where the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current fronts generate high biological activity. The trip type was not determined by body size but was related to departure date from the breeding area, suggesting that males must trade off opportunities at the breeding area (reproductive, social interactions) and foraging opportunities between breeding seasons. Regardless of trip structure, males focused search effort far from foraging areas of central-place foraging seabirds and seals including female Antarctic fur seals provisioning offspring. Males showed clear spatiotemporal patterns in dive behaviour, with deep dives in shelf waters during the day and predominantly shallower dives in pelagic waters at night. Diel dive patterns showed monthly changes in photoperiod and lunar phase, consistent with feeding on vertically migrating prey. However, males did not use area-restricted search to focus dive effort, instead performing a mix of foraging and nonforaging behaviour within and between restricted search areas. We discuss the scale and type of inference that can be made from movement models, given the behavioural constraints that govern long-distance trips in vast, heterogeneous environments like the Southern Ocean. • Males made two types of long-distance trip, related to departure date not body size. • Foraging and nonforaging behaviour occurred throughout these trips. • Males foraged mostly away from breeding seals, in areas of high biological activity. • Diel dive behaviour aligned with changes in solar and lunar light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is the region on Earth that is warming the fastest. At the same time, Arctic sea ice is reducing while the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is losing mass at an accelerated pace. Here, we study the seasonal impact of reduced Arctic sea ice on GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), using the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2), which features an advanced, interactive calculation of SMB. Addressing the impact of sea-ice reductions on the GrIS SMB from observations is difficult due to the short observational records. Also, signals detected using transient climate simulations may be aliases of other forcings. Here, we analyze dedicated simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with reduced Arctic sea ice and compare them with preindustrial sea ice simulations while keeping all other forcings constant. In response to reduced sea ice, the GrIS SMB increases in winter due to increased precipitation, driven by the more humid atmosphere and increasing cyclones. In summer, surface melt increases due to a warmer, more humid atmosphere providing increased energy transfer to the surface through the sensible and latent heat fluxes, which triggers the melt-albedo feedback. Further, warming occurs throughout the entire troposphere over Baffin Bay. This deep warming results in regional enhancement of the 500 hPa geopotential heights over the Baffin Bay and Greenland, increasing blocking and heat advection over the GrIS' surface. This anomalous circulation pattern has been linked to recent increases in the surface melt of the GrIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed data on the spatial distribution (density) of large breaks (gaps) in the drifting sea ice cover in the Western Arctic for the period from October 2005 to September 2017, obtained through decoding of lowresolution images from the NOAA satellites. The specific length of gaps, which is the total length of them over an area of 1 km2, is used as a characteristic of the spatial density. It was found that along the continental slope, approximately from the meridian 70° E to the Lincoln Sea, there is a well-defined area of high density, which remains throughout most part of the ice cycle. In this area, the values of the specific gap length averaged over two-month periods exceeded 24 m/km2. In the near-polar region, the density of breaks was smaller throughout the whole ice cycle. The least values of the specific length take place in May–June that is caused by changes in the general state of the ice cover. It was determined that the density of gaps in this area of the Arctic basin well correlated with the speed of wind drift of ice: the more intensive the drift, the larger the density. On the continental slope, two local zones with maximum values of the specific length of breaks reaching 32 m/km2 are considered. It is suggested that the stability of their location in space and time is connected with the increased influence of tidal processes on the deformation of the ice cover over local bottom elevations on the continental slope. A correlation between the bottom profile and the values of the specific length of the gaps along two conditional lines passing through the maximum value zones did show that the largest values of the density are noticed in areas with significant gradients of the depth.

Studies have indicated that marine heatwaves (MHWs) have had severe impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, but there have been few studies focused on MHWs in the Arctic. On the other hand, amplified rapid warming in the Arctic region makes it a hotspot strategically and economically worldwide. In this study, we documented that the average intensity of MHWs in the Arctic was comparable with that in the other regions of the global oceans. The annual intensity, frequency, duration, and areal coverage of MHWs have increased significantly in recent decades. The increase of the annual duration is mainly owing to the postponed end time, thus the prolonged periods, of the MHW seasons. Our analysis indicates that the increasing trends of the annual intensity, frequency, duration, and areal coverage in the Arctic are closely associated with the increasing surface air temperature and decreasing sea‐ice concentration under the global warming environment. These features are robust across three different sea surface temperature (SST) products and using different MHW criteria. Plain Language Summary: Events of extremely warm waters in the oceans are known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). Past MHW research has used sea surface temperature (SST) to diagnose MHWs and has focused on the tropical and subtropical oceans. The questions we address here are: (a) Are there any MHW events in the Arctic region where SSTs are generally low? and (b) Are the MHWs weaker or stronger in the Arctic than in the other oceans? Our study indicates that: (a) MHWs do exist in the Arctic, (b) their strengths increase with time, and (c) they are stronger than those in the other oceans in the most recent decades. These MHWs may have a strong impact on the Arctic bio‐ecosystem due to their low heat tolerance since the seasonal variation of SST in the Arctic is small. Key Points: The average marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Arctic are as strong as in the other ocean basins in 1982–2020The annual intensity are stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1982–2000, which is consistent with changes in air temperature, sea‐ice, and cloudThe increase of annual duration is largely associated with the postponed end time of the MHW seasons [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study suggests a possible mechanism of how the Arctic sea‐ice loss can influence the mid‐latitude climate in the Eurasian continent. It is shown that the low sea‐ice concentration over the Barents‐Kara‐Laptev Seas in autumn typically leads to cold Eurasian in winters. It is demonstrated that the Arctic‐to‐midlatitude connection depends on the state of late autumn atmospheric circulation. When the autumn sea‐ice reduction is accompanied by anticyclonic circulation over northern Eurasia, Eurasia becomes anomalously cold in the early winter. However, when cyclonic circulation is dominant, Eurasian cold anomalies appear in the late winter. This seasonally delayed response is further found to be related to the wind‐driven sea‐ice drift that causes warm anomalies over the Barents‐Kara Seas in the following winter. These observational results are confirmed by model simulations, indicating that the recent Eurasian cold winters could be linked to their forced response to the Arctic sea‐ice loss. Plain Language Summary: In recent decades, midlatitude continents frequently experienced severe winters despite increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Several observational and modeling studies have suggested that the Arctic‐to‐midlatitude connection might have played a central role in the cold winters. However, it is still controversial whether the Arctic‐to‐midlatitude connection is indeed driven by the Arctic sea‐ice variability or is simply the result of internal atmospheric processes. Here we examine that the Autumn sea‐ice loss in the Kara‐Barents‐Laptev Seas can induce Eurasian cooling in the late winter, suggesting a several‐month time delay. We suggest that the sea ice‐wind coupling enables to make the time delay, which eventually induces the warm Arctic‐cold continent pattern in the late winter. Our results support that the recent Eurasian cold winter could be partly contributed by the forced response to the Arctic sea‐ice decline. Key Points: The regional autumn Arctic sea‐ice loss has a significant delayed impact on Eurasian cold wintersThe Arctic‐to‐midlatitude connection depends on the state of late autumn atmospheric circulation over northern EurasiaThe sea ice‐wind coupling plays a role in delivering Autumn sea‐ice signal to the late winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature and precipitation change more strongly in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, with central Arctic boreal winter precipitation projected to double in the 21st century in a high‐emission scenario. This enhanced hydrological sensitivity has been explained in terms of the Arctic moisture budget and attributed to either moisture advection or surface evaporation. Here, we show that boreal winter moisture availability is less sensitive to surface temperature change in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, questioning a central role of the moisture budget. Hydrological sensitivity, that is, precipitation change per unit temperature change, is similar in models with or without sea‐ice changes, suggesting a secondary role of surface flux changes. Instead, we propose that the Arctic's larger hydrological sensitivity is energetically driven. Increases in latent heat release from precipitation locally balance increased atmospheric radiative cooling in Arctic winter, consistent with process‐level understanding of radiatively driven cloud and precipitation formation. Plain Language Summary: As Earth's climate warms, globally averaged precipitation increases. Both warming and precipitation increase are larger in the Arctic than at lower latitudes. In the atmospheric energy budget, changes in precipitation correspond to changes in latent heat release and must be balanced by advection, surface fluxes, or radiation. This article shows that stronger Arctic than lower‐latitude precipitation increases are mostly driven by stronger radiative loss of energy to space. Previous research had suggested that increased evaporation following the retreat of sea ice was a key driver of Arctic precipitation increases. Understanding the causes of amplified Arctic precipitation change is important to build confidence in model projections and to focus on the most important processes in further research and model development. The link between hydrological and radiative changes also allows to reconcile these two perspectives on Arctic amplification that have so far often been discussed as opposing views. Key Points: Precipitation change is greater in the Arctic than anywhere else outside the deep Tropics in boreal winterLarger Arctic hydrological sensitivity is energetically driven and independent of sea‐ice changesArctic increases in atmospheric radiative cooling closely match increases in latent heat release from precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a 500‐year history of naturally felled driftwood incursion to northern Svalbard, directly reflecting regional sea ice conditions and Arctic Ocean circulation. Provenance and age determinations by dendrochronology and wood anatomy provide insights into Arctic Ocean currents and climatic conditions at a fine spatial resolution, as crossdating with reference chronologies from the circum‐Arctic boreal forests enables determination of the watershed the driftwood originated from. Sample crossdating may result in a wide range of matches across the pan‐boreal region, which may be biased toward regions covered by the reference chronologies. Our study considers alternate approaches to selecting probable origin sites, by weighting scores via reference chronology span and visualizing results through spatiotemporal density plots, as opposed to more basic ranking systems. As our samples come from naturally felled trees (not logged or both), the relative proportions of different provenances are used to infer past ocean current dominance. Our record indicates centennial‐to decadal‐scale shifts in source regions for driftwood incursion to Svalbard, aligning with Late Holocene high variability and high frequency shifts in the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre strengths and associated fluctuating climate conditions. Driftwood occurrence and provenance also track the northward ice formation shift in peripheral Arctic seas in the past century. A distinct decrease in driftwood incursion during the last 30 years matches the observed decline in pan‐Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades. Our new approach successfully employs driftwood as a proxy for Arctic Ocean surface circulation and sea ice dynamics. Plain Language Summary: We present a 500‐year history of driftwood arriving to the shorelines of northern Svalbard. Driftwood in the Arctic results from dying trees entering the large rivers that drain the circum‐Arctic land masses, which upon flowing into the Arctic Ocean can become locked up in forming sea ice. This enables the wood to travel across the Arctic Ocean without sinking, making it an invaluable proxy for sea ice extent by recording variations in Arctic Ocean surface currents (and therefore sea ice drift) and ice cover. With comparison of tree ring width (TRW) measurements of these driftwood samples to TRW series from trees throughout the boreal forests, we can determine the region each sample came from. We can thus approximate its likely trajectory across the Arctic Ocean. Arctic sea ice is rapidly declining in extent and thickness, with impacts on local and global climatic and ecological conditions. Knowledge of past changes is needed to place this modern trend within a broader context to aid future predictions for Arctic sea ice. Our record matches the observational record of Arctic Ocean surface circulation patterns and climate conditions, supporting the use of driftwood as a proxy for Arctic Ocean surface current and sea ice dynamics. Key Points: We present a novel approach to utilizing naturally felled driftwood as a proxy for Arctic Ocean surface circulation and sea ice dynamicsA 500‐year record of driftwood incursion to Svalbard reflects centennial to decadal variability in surface circulation and sea ice extentA distinct decrease in driftwood from all provenances in the last 30 years matches the observed decline in pan‐Arctic sea ice extent [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton is one of the largest species migrations to occur globally and is a key driver of regional ecosystems and the marine carbon pump. The dramatic changes in the Arctic environment in recent years, mainly associated with sea-ice decline, may have wide significance for the Arctic shelf ecosystems including DVM. Observations have revealed the occurrence of DVM in ice-covered Arctic waters, however, there have yet to be observations of DVM from the extensive Siberian shelves in the Eurasian Arctic and no analysis of how the sea-ice decline may affect DVM. Here, 2 yearlong time series of acoustic backscatter, collected by moored acoustic Doppler current profilers in the eastern Laptev Sea from August 1998 to August 1999, were used to examine the annual cycle of acoustic scattering, and therefore the annual cycle of DVM in the area. The acoustic time series were used along with atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis and satellite data. Our observations show that DVM did not occur during polar night and polar day, but is active during the spring and fall transition periods when there is a diurnal cycle in light conditions. DVM began beneath the fast ice at the end of polar night and increased in intensity through spring. However, the formation of a large polynya along the landfast ice edge in late March 1999 caused DVM to abruptly cease near the fast ice edge, while DVM persisted through spring to the start of polar day at the onshore mooring. We associate this cessation of synchronized DVM ∼1 month ahead of polar day with a predator-avoidance behavior of zooplankton in response to higher polar cod abundance near the polynya. During polar day, the intensity of acoustic scattering was attributed to the riverine suspended particles. Overall, our results highlight the occurrence of DVM on the Siberian shelves, the cessation of synchronized DVM when a polynya opens up nearby, and the potential impact of significant trends toward a more extensive Laptev Sea polynya as part of changing ice conditions in the Eurasian Arctic and their impact on the Arctic shelf ecology.

Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean act as an important sink in the global mercury cycle; however, corresponding studies of atmospheric mercury species in these regions are still scarce. Here, we report large‐scale observations of atmospheric gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) and gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) in the Antarctic marine boundary layer (MBL) taken during a summer cruise. There is large variability in the spatial distribution of GOM, which is likely attributable to the diverse land surface types, including coastal Antarctica, sea‐ice region, and oceanic region, along the cruise route. In coastal Antarctica, the highest GOM level (56.23 ± 47.74 pg·m−3) might be attributed to the significant in‐situ oxidation there. Significant in‐situ oxidation of GEM could also occur in the sea‐ice region, causing the significant increase of GOM (up to 87.01 pg·m−3), while the uptake of the high content of sea‐salt aerosols in sea‐ice regions might efficiently eliminate GOM in the air, resulting in generally lower content of GOM (13.10 ± 14.48 pg·m−3) in the sea‐ice region. In the oceanic region, the lowest level of GOM (3.95 ± 4.69 pg·m−3) is due to both the uptake of sea‐salt aerosols and the seasonal melting of first‐year sea‐ice. This study provides insight to understand the mechanisms of the atmospheric mercury cycle in various land surface types in the Antarctic MBL. Key Points: Large spatial variability in gaseous oxidized mercury over different land surface types was observed in the Southern OceanLow gaseous oxidized mercury content in the sea‐ice region would be to some extent attributed to its greater uptake by sea salt aerosolsThe seasonal melting of first‐year sea ice can cause a clear decrease in gaseous oxidized mercury levels [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a three-stage approach for the automated analysis of close-range optical images containing ice objects. The proposed system is based on an ensemble of deep learning models and conditional random field postprocessing. The following surface ice formations were considered: Icebergs, Deformed ice, Level ice, Broken ice, Ice floes, Floebergs, Floebits, Pancake ice, and Brash ice. Additionally, five non-surface ice categories were considered: Sky, Open water, Shore, Underwater ice, and Melt ponds. To find input parameters for the approach, the performance of 12 different neural network architectures was explored and evaluated using a 5-fold cross-validation scheme. The best performance was achieved using an ensemble of models having pyramid pooling layers (PSPNet, PSPDenseNet, DeepLabV3+, and UPerNet) and convolutional conditional random field postprocessing with a mean intersection over union score of 0.799, and this outperformed the best single-model approach. The results of this study show that when per-class performance was considered, the Sky was the easiest class to predict, followed by Deformed ice and Open water. Melt pond was the most challenging class to predict. Furthermore, we have extensively explored the strengths and weaknesses of our approach and, in the process, discovered the types of scenes that pose a more significant challenge to the underlying neural networks. When coupled with optical sensors and AIS, the proposed approach can serve as a supplementary source of large-scale ‘ground truth’ data for validation of satellite-based sea-ice products. We have provided an implementation of the approach at https://github.com/panchinabil/sea_ice_segmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All coastal systems experience disturbances and many across the planet are under unprecedented threat from an intensification of a variety of stressors. The West Antarctic Peninsula is a hotspot of physical climate change and has experienced a dramatic loss of sea‐ice and glaciers in recent years. Among other things, sea‐ice immobilizes icebergs, reducing collisions between icebergs and the seabed, thus decreasing ice‐scouring. Ice disturbance drives patchiness in successional stages across seabed assemblages in Antarctica's shallows, making this an ideal system to understand the ecosystem resilience to increasing disturbance with climate change. We monitored a shallow benthic ecosystem before, during and after a 3‐year pulse of catastrophic ice‐scouring events and show that such systems can return, or bounce back, to previous states within 10 years. Our long‐term data series show that recovery can happen more rapidly than expected, when disturbances abate, even in highly sensitive cold, polar environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly and annual component fluxes of the surface radiation and energy budgets for the two-decade period from 1997 to 2016 are compared with the climate normal period (1981–2010) for the marine system consisting of James Bay, Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait and Foxe Basin using estimates from the North American regional reanalysis model. Reflected solar radiation has declined unevenly, primarily offshore of major rivers, in polynyas and along shore leads, both during earlier melt and later freeze up. Annually, net radiation increases are driven by albedo decreases during the summer. Over 94% of the increases in ocean heat gain during the melt season are due to increases in absorbed sunlight. Large enhanced oceanic heat losses in the late fall are almost entirely consumed by intensified convective losses of both sensible and latent heat. All the seas within the Hudson Bay Complex show a reduced rate of ocean warming over the past two decades. This outcome can be partially reconciled with the observation that all water bodies are experiencing enhanced losses of energy during extended ice-free winters that exceed enhanced gains of energy during the extended ice-free summers. The implications of seasonal changes in ice cover for future climate are discussed.

Knowledge of the wintertime sea-ice production in Arctic polynyas is an important requirement for estimations of the dense water formation, which drives vertical mixing in the upper ocean. Satellite-based techniques incorporating relatively high resolution thermal-infrared data from MODIS in combination with atmospheric reanalysis data have proven to be a strong tool to monitor large and regularly forming polynyas and to resolve narrow thin-ice areas (i.e., leads) along the shelf-breaks and across the entire Arctic Ocean. However, the selection of the atmospheric data sets has a large influence on derived polynya characteristics due to their impact on the calculation of the heat loss to the atmosphere, which is determined by the local thin-ice thickness. In order to overcome this methodical ambiguity, we present a MODIS-assisted temperature adjustment (MATA) algorithm that yields corrections of the 2 m air temperature and hence decreases differences between the atmospheric input data sets. The adjustment algorithm is based on atmospheric model simulations. We focus on the Laptev Sea region for detailed case studies on the developed algorithm and present time series of polynya characteristics in the winter season 2019/2020. It shows that the application of the empirically derived correction decreases the difference between different utilized atmospheric products significantly from 49% to 23%. Additional filter strategies are applied that aim at increasing the capability to include leads in the quasi-daily and persistence-filtered thin-ice thickness composites. More generally, the winter of 2019/2020 features high polynya activity in the eastern Arctic and less activity in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, presumably as a result of the particularly strong polar vortex in early 2020.

We explore the climate system response to abrupt CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1× to 8×CO2, with two state‐of‐the‐art coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea‐ice‐land models: the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1‐G (GISS‐E2.1‐G) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM‐LE). We find that the effective climate sensitivity is a non‐monotonic function of CO2 in both models, reaching a minimum at 3×CO2 for GISS‐E2.1‐G, and 4×CO2 for CESM‐LE. A similar non‐monotonic response is found in Northern Hemisphere surface temperature, sea‐ice, precipitation, the latitude of zero precipitation‐minus‐evaporation, and the strength of the Hadley cell. Interestingly, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapses when non‐monotonicity appears and does not recover for larger CO2 forcings. Analyzing the climate response over the same CO2 range with slab‐ocean versions of the same models, we demonstrate that the climate system's non‐monotonic response is linked to ocean dynamics. Plain Language Summary: We perform runs with two different models using CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere higher (from 1× to 8×CO2) relative to pre‐industrial conditions, in order to explore how the effective climate sensitivity (ECSeff) and the entire climate system change with increasing CO2. We show that ECSeff is a non‐monotonic function of CO2, minimizing at 3×CO2 in one model and 4×CO2 in the other. A similar non‐monotonic response appears in precipitation, sea‐ice, the edge of the dry zone, and Hadley cell strength. Interestingly, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which brings warm water into the North Atlantic, also shuts down at the same forcings when ECSeff is minimum and does not recover for higher forcings. We further show that the non‐monotonic response of the climate system stems from changes in ocean dynamics. Key Points: We examine the response of the climate system to abrupt 1.5×, 2×, 3×, 4×, 5×, 6×, 7×, and 8×CO2 forcing with two different coupled modelsClimate sensitivity, sea‐ice extent, global precipitation and the atmospheric circulation respond non‐monotonically across this range of CO2The non‐monotonicity of the response is associated with changes in ocean dynamics, notably over the North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A wind-wave generation model over an ice-covered sea is proposed. The wind velocity over the ice upper surface is decomposed into the mean velocity profile of the boundary-layer flow and small perturbations, while the ice cover is modelled as a viscoelastic layer, with the water part modelled as an inviscid fluid. The present model is based on two-dimensional linear flow-instability theory, with no-slip boundary conditions at the air–ice interface, and both normal and shear stress boundary conditions matched on the air–ice interface. It is shown that the model converges to the field and experimental data for open-water cases. The ice elasticity is found to be the critical factor for generating wind waves, and the generation of flexural-gravity waves and elastic waves in ice is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of annular and nonannular characteristics in the wintertime Southern Hemisphere circulation is investigated using reanalysis data between 1978 and 2010. Weekly averaged data are chosen to capture the typically short time scale of intraseasonal atmospheric variability. In existing studies, the southern annular mode (SAM) has been shown to exhibit significant nonannular behavior in the western Southern Hemisphere during austral winter. Variability in this region is also characterized by wave-like disturbances, and this “overlap” in nonannular behavior between different climate modes has led to a lack of consensus when defining and measuring impact from these wave-like disturbances. A number of approaches are adopted, including empirical orthogonal function analysis, teleconnection correlation analysis, and the application of a vector autoregression model to isolate directions of causality and wave propagation. Austral winter variability is shown to be dominated by nonannular wave-like disturbances, rather than a seesaw pattern between high and middle latitudes. The wave-like disturbances have the largest amplitude in the western Southern Hemisphere, are quasi-stationary, and exhibit eastward propagation of information. This suggests that the dominant pattern of western Southern Hemisphere intraseasonal variability during austral winter, which is commonly associated with the SAM, is, in fact, a wave-like mode of variability.

Throughout much of the latter half of the twentieth century, the dominant mode of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical wintertime circulation variability-the Arctic Oscillation (AO)-exhibited a positive trend, with decreasing high-latitude sea level pressure (SLP) and increasing midlatitude SLP. General circulation models (GCMs) show that this trend is related to several factors, including North Atlantic SSTs, greenhouse gas/ozone-induced stratospheric cooling, and warming of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Over the last approximately two decades, however, the AO has been decreasing, with 2009/10 featuring the most negative AO since 1900. Observational and idealized modeling studies suggest that snow cover, particularly over Eurasia, may be important. An observed snow-AO mechanism also exists, involving the vertical propagation of a Rossby wave train into the stratosphere, which induces a negative AO response that couples to the troposphere. Similar to other GCMs, the authors show that transient simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3) yield a snow-AO relationship inconsistent with observations and dissimilar AO trends. However, Eurasian snow cover and its interannual variability are significantly underestimated. When the albedo effects of snow cover are prescribed in CAM3 (CAMPS) using satellite-based snow cover fraction data, a snow-AO relationship similar to observations develops. Furthermore, the late-twentieth-century increase in the AO, and particularly the recent decrease, is reproduced by CAM PS. The authors therefore conclude that snow cover has helped force the observed AO trends and that it may play an important role in future AO trends.

The Arctic climate is changing rapidly. The warming and resultant longer open water periods suggest a potential for expansion of marine vegetation along the vast Arctic coastline. We compiled and reviewed the scattered time series on Arctic marine vegetation and explored trends for macroalgae and eelgrass (Zostera marina). We identified a total of 38 sites, distributed between Arctic coastal regions in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway/Svalbard, and Russia, having time series extending into the 21st Century. The majority of these exhibited increase in abundance, productivity or species richness, and/or expansion of geographical distribution limits, several time series showed no significant trend. Only four time series displayed a negative trend, largely due to urchin grazing or increased turbidity. Overall, the observations support with medium confidence (i.e., 5–8 in 10 chance of being correct, adopting the IPCC confidence scale) the prediction that macrophytes are expanding in the Arctic. Species distribution modeling was challenged by limited observations and lack of information on substrate, but suggested a current (2000–2017) potential pan-Arctic brown macroalgal distribution area of 655,111 km2 (140,433 km2 intertidal, 514,679 km2 subtidal), representing an increase of about 45% for subtidal- and 8% for intertidal macroalgae since 1940–1950, and associated polar migration rates averaging 18–23 km decade–1. Adjusting the potential macroalgal distribution area by the fraction of shores represented by cliffs halves the estimate (340,658 km2). Warming and reduced sea ice cover along the Arctic coastlines are expected to stimulate further expansion of marine vegetation from boreal latitudes. The changes likely affect the functioning of coastal Arctic ecosystems because of the vegetation’s roles as habitat, and for carbon and nutrient cycling and storage. We encourage a pan-Arctic science- and management agenda to incorporate marine vegetation into a coherent understanding of Arctic changes by quantifying distribution and status beyond the scattered studies now available to develop sustainable management strategies for these important ecosystems.

Knowledge of Arctic sea-ice conditions is of great interest for Arctic residents, as well as for commercial usage, and to study the effects of climate change. Information gained from analysis of satellite data contributes to this understanding. In the course of using in situ data in combination with remotely sensed data, the question of how representative local scale measurements are of a wider region may arise. We compare in situ total sea-ice thickness measurements from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition in the area north of Svalbard with airborne-derived total sea-ice thickness from electromagnetic soundings. A segmented and classified synthetic aperture radar (SAR) quad-pol ALOS-2 Palsar-2 satellite scene was grouped into three simplified ice classes. The area fractions of the three classes are: 11.2% ‘thin’, 74.4% ‘level’, and 14.4% ‘deformed’. The area fractions of the simplified classes from ground- and helicopter-based measurements are comparable with those achieved from the SAR data. Thus, this study shows that there is potential for a stepwise upscaling from in situ, to airborne, to satellite data, which allow us to assess whether in situ data collected are representative of a wider region as observed by satellites.

To reconstruct the climatic and paleoceanographic variability offshore Northeast Greenland during the last ~10 ka with multidecadal resolution, sediment core PS93/025 from the outermost North-East Greenland continental shelf (80.5°N) was studied by a variety of micropaleontological, sedimentological and isotopic methods. High foraminiferal fluxes, together with high proportions of ice-rafted debris and high Ca/Fe ratios, indicate a maximum in bioproductivity until ~8 ka related to a low sea-ice coverage. Sortable silt values, planktic foraminifer associations, and stable isotope data of planktic and benthic foraminifers suggest a strong westward advection of relatively warm Atlantic Water by the Return Atlantic Current during this time, with a noticeable bottom current activity. This advection may have been facilitated by a greater water depth at our site, resulting from postglacial isostatic depression. For the following mid-Holocene interval (ca. 8–5 ka), isotope data, lower foraminiferal fluxes and a shift in grain size maxima point to a lasting but successively decreasing Atlantic Water inflow, a weakening productivity, and a growing sea-ice coverage which is also revealed by the PIIIIP25 index. A final stage in the environmental development was reached at ~5 ka with the establishment of pre-industrial conditions. Low Ca/Fe ratios, low foraminiferal fluxes, low sortable silt values and the sea-ice indicating PIIIIP25 index point to a limited productivity and a weak Atlantic Water inflow by the Return Atlantic Current to our research area, as well as a higher and/or seasonally more extended sea-ice coverage during the Late Holocene. Two intervals with somewhat enhanced Atlantic Water advection around 2.0 and 1.0 ka are indicated by slightly increased foraminiferal fluxes and the reoccurrence of subpolar foraminifers. These intervals may correlate with the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly, as defined in the North Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past four decades significant decrease in Arctic sea ice and a dramatic ice mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been coincident with global warming and an increase in atmospheric CO2. In Northeast Greenland significant mass loss from the outlet glaciers Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79NG) and Zachariæ Isstrøm (ZI) and intensive seasonal breakup of the local Norske Øer Ice Barrier (NØIB) have also been observed since 2000. In order to better understand the processes driving these modern changes, studies of paleoclimate records are important and of major societal relevance. A multiproxy study including organic‐biogeochemical and micropaleontological proxies was carried out on a marine sediment core recovered directly in front of 79NG. Data from Core PS100/270 evidenced a strong inflow of warm recirculating Atlantic Water across the Northeast Greenland shelf from the early Holocene between ~10 and 7.5 ka. An overall high in phytoplankton productivity occurred within a stable sea ice margin regime, accompanied by 79NG retreat most probably triggered by peak solar insolation and changes in the local ocean circulation. Enhanced basal melt of the underside of 79NG at ~7.5 ka then led to the total disintegration of the ice shelf. The released freshwater would have driven water column stratification and promoted the formation of the local landfast ice barrier, which is shown by lowered biomarker values and foraminifera abundances toward the end of the early Holocene. Near perennial sea ice conditions with short summers and 79NG retreat to the inner fjord then prevailed from ~7.5 to ~0.8 ka. Key Points: Multiproxy record allowed reconstruction of NEG ice sheet retreat and sea ice history from the last deglaciation to the late HoloceneIncreased inflow of warm recirculating Atlantic Water linked to retreat and disintegration of the 79NG between 10 and 7.5 kaExtended to even perennial sea ice conditions were predominant on the inner NE Greenland shelf since 7.5 ka [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]