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Blueberry (Vaccinium spp.) is among the most-consumed soft fruit and has been recognized as an important source of health-promoting compounds. Highly perishable and susceptible to rapid spoilage due to fruit softening and decay during postharvest storage, modern breeding programs are looking to maximize the quality and extend the market life of fresh blueberries. However, it is uncertain how genetically controlled postharvest quality traits are in blueberries. This study aimed to investigate the prediction ability and the genetic basis of the main fruit quality traits affected during blueberry postharvest to create breeding strategies for developing cultivars with an extended shelf life. To achieve this goal, we carried out target genotyping in a breeding population of 588 individuals and evaluated several fruit quality traits after 1 day, 1 week, 3 weeks, and 7 weeks of postharvest storage at 1°C. Using longitudinal genome-based methods, we estimated genetic parameters and predicted unobserved phenotypes. Our results showed large diversity, moderate heritability, and consistent predictive accuracies along the postharvest storage for most of the traits. Regarding the fruit quality, firmness showed the largest variation during postharvest storage, with a surprising number of genotypes maintaining or increasing their firmness, even after 7 weeks of cold storage. Our results suggest that we can effectively improve the blueberry postharvest quality through breeding and use genomic prediction to maximize the genetic gains in the long term. We also emphasize the potential of using longitudinal genomic prediction models to predict the fruit quality at extended postharvest periods by integrating known phenotypic data from harvest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial step in inbred plant breeding is the choice of mating design to derive high-performing inbred varieties while also maintaining a competitive breeding population to secure sufficient genetic gain in future generations. In practice, the mating design usually relies on crosses involving the best parental inbred lines to ensure high mean progeny performance. This excludes crosses involving lower performing but more complementary parents in terms of favorable alleles. We predicted the ability of crosses to produce putative outstanding progenies (high mean and high variance progeny distribution) using genomic prediction models. This study compared the benefits and drawbacks of 7 genomic cross selection criteria (CSC) in terms of genetic gain for 1 trait and genetic diversity in the next generation. Six CSC were already published, and we propose an improved CSC that can estimate the proportion of progeny above a threshold defined for the whole mating plan. We simulated mating designs optimized using different CSC. The 835 elite parents came from a real breeding program and were evaluated between 2000 and 2016. We applied constraints on parental contributions and genetic similarities between selected parents according to usual breeder practices. Our results showed that CSC based on progeny variance estimation increased the genetic value of superior progenies by up to 5% in the next generation compared to CSC based on the progeny mean estimation (i.e. parental genetic values) alone. It also increased the genetic gain (up to 4%) and/or maintained more genetic diversity at QTLs (up to 4% more genic variance when the marker effects were perfectly estimated). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian regression methods that incorporate different mixture priors for marker effects are used in multi-trait genomic prediction. These methods can also be extended to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In multiple-trait GWAS, incorporating the underlying causal structures among traits is essential for comprehensively understanding the relationship between genotypes and traits of interest. Therefore, we develop a GWAS methodology, SEM-Bayesian alphabet, which, by applying the structural equation model (SEM), can be used to incorporate causal structures into multi-trait Bayesian regression methods. SEM-Bayesian alphabet provides a more comprehensive understanding of the genotype-phenotype mapping than multi-trait GWAS by performing GWAS based on indirect, direct and overall marker effects. The superior performance of SEM-Bayesian alphabet was demonstrated by comparing its GWAS results with other similar multi-trait GWAS methods on real and simulated data. The software tool JWAS offers open-source routines to perform these analyses.

Plant growth, development, and nutritional quality depends upon amino acid homeostasis, especially in seeds. However, our understanding of the underlying genetics influencing amino acid content and composition remains limited, with only a few candidate genes and quantitative trait loci identified to date. Improved knowledge of the genetics and biological processes that determine amino acid levels will enable researchers to use this information for plant breeding and biological discovery. Toward this goal, we used genomic prediction to identify biological processes that are associated with, and therefore potentially influence, free amino acid (FAA) composition in seeds of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana Markers were split into categories based on metabolic pathway annotations and fit using a genomic partitioning model to evaluate the influence of each pathway on heritability explained, model fit, and predictive ability. Selected pathways included processes known to influence FAA composition, albeit to an unknown degree, and spanned four categories: amino acid, core, specialized, and protein metabolism. Using this approach, we identified associations for pathways containing known variants for FAA traits, in addition to finding new trait-pathway associations. Markers related to amino acid metabolism, which are directly involved in FAA regulation, improved predictive ability for branched chain amino acids and histidine. The use of genomic partitioning also revealed patterns across biochemical families, in which serine-derived FAAs were associated with protein related annotations and aromatic FAAs were associated with specialized metabolic pathways. Taken together, these findings provide evidence that genomic partitioning is a viable strategy to uncover the relative contributions of biological processes to FAA traits in seeds, offering a promising framework to guide hypothesis testing and narrow the search space for candidate genes.

Genetic selection has been applied for many generations in animal, plant, and experimental populations. Selection changes the allelic architecture of traits to create genetic gain. It remains unknown whether the changes in allelic architecture are different for the recently introduced technique of genomic selection compared to traditional selection methods and whether they depend on the genetic architectures of traits. Here, we investigate the allele frequency changes of old and new causal loci under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, and genomic selection, for a trait controlled by either additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. Genomic selection resulted in slightly larger and faster changes in allele frequencies of causal loci than pedigree selection. For each locus, allele frequency change per generation was not only influenced by its statistical additive effect but also to a large extent by the linkage phase with other loci and its allele frequency. Selection fixed a large number of loci, and 5 times more unfavorable alleles became fixed with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. For pedigree selection, this was mainly a result of increased genetic drift, while genetic hitchhiking had a larger effect on genomic selection. When epistasis was present, the average allele frequency change was smaller (~15% lower), and a lower number of loci became fixed for all selection methods. We conclude that for long-term genetic improvement using genomic selection, it is important to consider hitchhiking and to limit the loss of favorable alleles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to connect genetic information between traits over time allow Bayesian networks to offer a powerful probabilistic framework to construct genomic prediction models. In this study, we phenotyped a diversity panel of 869 biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) lines, which had been genotyped with 100,435 SNP markers, for plant height (PH) with biweekly measurements from 30 to 120 days after planting (DAP) and for end-of-season dry biomass yield (DBY) in four environments. We evaluated five genomic prediction models: Bayesian network (BN), Pleiotropic Bayesian network (PBN), Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), multi-trait GBLUP (MTr-GBLUP), and multi-time GBLUP (MTi-GBLUP) models. In fivefold cross-validation, prediction accuracies ranged from 0.46 (PBN) to 0.49 (MTr-GBLUP) for DBY and from 0.47 (DBN, DAP120) to 0.75 (MTi-GBLUP, DAP60) for PH. Forward-chaining cross-validation further improved prediction accuracies of the DBN, MTi-GBLUP and MTr-GBLUP models for PH (training slice: 30-45 DAP) by 36.4-52.4% relative to the BN and PBN models. Coincidence indices (target: biomass, secondary: PH) and a coincidence index based on lines (PH time series) showed that the ranking of lines by PH changed minimally after 45 DAP. These results suggest a two-level indirect selection method for PH at harvest (first-level target trait) and DBY (second-level target trait) could be conducted earlier in the season based on ranking of lines by PH at 45 DAP (secondary trait). With the advance of high-throughput phenotyping technologies, our proposed two-level indirect selection framework could be valuable for enhancing genetic gain per unit of time when selecting on developmental traits.

Incorporating measurements on correlated traits into genomic prediction models can increase prediction accuracy and selection gain. However, multi-trait genomic prediction models are complex and prone to overfitting which may result in a loss of prediction accuracy relative to single-trait genomic prediction. Cross-validation is considered the gold standard method for selecting and tuning models for genomic prediction in both plant and animal breeding. When used appropriately, cross-validation gives an accurate estimate of the prediction accuracy of a genomic prediction model, and can effectively choose among disparate models based on their expected performance in real data. However, we show that a naive cross-validation strategy applied to the multi-trait prediction problem can be severely biased and lead to sub-optimal choices between single and multi-trait models when secondary traits are used to aid in the prediction of focal traits and these secondary traits are measured on the individuals to be tested. We use simulations to demonstrate the extent of the problem and propose three partial solutions: 1) a parametric solution from selection index theory, 2) a semi-parametric method for correcting the cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracy, and 3) a fully non-parametric method which we call CV2*: validating model predictions against focal trait measurements from genetically related individuals. The current excitement over high-throughput phenotyping suggests that more comprehensive phenotype measurements will be useful for accelerating breeding programs. Using an appropriate cross-validation strategy should more reliably determine if and when combining information across multiple traits is useful.

Genomic selection (GS) in wheat breeding programs is of great interest for predicting the genotypic values of individuals, where both additive and nonadditive effects determine the final breeding value of lines. While several simulation studies have shown the efficiency of rapid-cycling GS strategies for parental selection or population improvement, their practical implementations are still lacking in wheat and other crops. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of rapid-cycle recurrent GS (RCRGS) to increase genetic gain for grain yield (GY) in wheat. Our results showed a consistent realized genetic gain for GY after 3 cycles of recombination (C1, C2, and C3) of bi-parental F1s, when summarized across 2 years of phenotyping. For both evaluation years combined, genetic gain through RCRGS reached 12.3% from cycle C0 to C3 and realized gain was 0.28 ton ha-1 per cycle with a GY from C0 (6.88 ton ha-1) to C3 (7.73 ton ha-1). RCRGS was also associated with some changes in important agronomic traits that were measured (days to heading, days to maturity, and plant height) but not selected for. To account for these changes, we recommend implementing GS together with multi-trait prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian multiple-regression methods incorporating different mixture priors for marker effects are used widely in genomic prediction. Improvement in prediction accuracies from using those methods, such as BayesB, BayesC, and BayesCπ, have been shown in single-trait analyses with both simulated and real data. These methods have been extended to multi-trait analyses, but only under the restrictive assumption that a locus simultaneously affects all the traits or none of them. This assumption is not biologically meaningful, especially in multi-trait analyses involving many traits. In this paper, we develop and implement a more general multi-trait BayesC[Formula: see text] and BayesB methods allowing a broader range of mixture priors. Our methods allow a locus to affect any combination of traits, e.g., in a 5-trait analysis, the "restrictive" model only allows two situations, whereas ours allow all 32 situations. Further, we compare our methods to single-trait methods and the "restrictive" multi-trait formulation using real and simulated data. In the real data analysis, higher prediction accuracies were observed from both our new broad-based multi-trait methods and the "restrictive" formulation. The broad-based and restrictive multi-trait methods showed similar prediction accuracies. In the simulated data analysis, higher prediction accuracies to the "restrictive" method were observed from our general multi-trait methods for intermediate training population size. The software tool JWAS offers open-source routines to perform these analyses.

Oak represents a valuable natural resource across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems, attracting a large research community studying its genetics, ecology, conservation, and management. Here we introduce a draft genome assembly of valley oak (Quercus lobata) using Illumina sequencing of adult leaf tissue of a tree found in an accessible, well-studied, natural southern California population. Our assembly includes a nuclear genome and a complete chloroplast genome, along with annotation of encoded genes. The assembly contains 94,394 scaffolds, totaling 1.17 Gb with 18,512 scaffolds of length 2 kb or longer, with a total length of 1.15 Gb, and a N50 scaffold size of 278,077 kb. The k-mer histograms indicate an diploid genome size of ∼720-730 Mb, which is smaller than the total length due to high heterozygosity, estimated at 1.25%. A comparison with a recently published European oak (Q. robur) nuclear sequence indicates 93% similarity. The Q. lobata chloroplast genome has 99% identity with another North American oak, Q. rubra Preliminary annotation yielded an estimate of 61,773 predicted protein-coding genes, of which 71% had similarity to known protein domains. We searched 956 Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs, and found 863 complete orthologs, of which 450 were present in > 1 copy. We also examined an earlier version (v0.5) where duplicate haplotypes were removed to discover variants. These additional sources indicate that the predicted gene count in Version 1.0 is overestimated by 37-52%. Nonetheless, this first draft valley oak genome assembly represents a high-quality, well-annotated genome that provides a tool for forest restoration and management practices.

We compared the performance of linear (GBLUP, BayesB, and elastic net) methods to a nonparametric tree-based ensemble (gradient boosting machine) method for genomic prediction of complex traits in mice. The dataset used contained genotypes for 50,112 SNP markers and phenotypes for 835 animals from 6 generations. Traits analyzed were bone mineral density, body weight at 10, 15, and 20weeks, fat percentage, circulating cholesterol, glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and urine creatinine. The youngest generation was used as a validation subset, and predictions were based on all older generations. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions for animals in the validation subset against their adjusted phenotypes. Linear models outperformed gradient boosting machine for 7 out of 10 traits. For bone mineral density, cholesterol, and glucose, the gradient boosting machine model showed better prediction accuracy and lower relative root mean squared error than the linear models. Interestingly, for these 3 traits, there is evidence of a relevant portion of phenotypic variance being explained by epistatic effects. Using a subset of top markers selected from a gradient boosting machine model helped for some of the traits to improve the accuracy of prediction when these were fitted into linear and gradient boosting machine models. Our results indicate that gradient boosting machine is more strongly affected by data size and decreased connectedness between reference and validation sets than the linear models. Although the linear models outperformed gradient boosting machine for the polygenic traits, our results suggest that gradient boosting machine is a competitive method to predict complex traits with assumed epistatic effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian regression methods that incorporate different mixture priors for marker effects are used in multi-trait genomic prediction. These methods can also be extended to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In multiple-trait GWAS, incorporating the underlying causal structures among traits is essential for comprehensively understanding the relationship between genotypes and traits of interest. Therefore, we develop a GWAS methodology, SEM-Bayesian alphabet, which, by applying the structural equation model (SEM), can be used to incorporate causal structures into multi-trait Bayesian regression methods. SEM-Bayesian alphabet provides a more comprehensive understanding of the genotype-phenotype mapping than multi-trait GWAS by performing GWAS based on indirect, direct and overall marker effects. The superior performance of SEM-Bayesian alphabet was demonstrated by comparing its GWAS results with other similar multi-trait GWAS methods on real and simulated data. The software tool JWAS offers open-source routines to perform these analyses.

Genomic selection (GS) is a breeding approach which exploits genome-wide information and whose unprecedented success has shaped several animal and plant breeding schemes through delivering their genetic progress. This is the first study assessing the potential of GS in apricot (Prunus armeniaca) to enhance postharvest fruit quality attributes. Genomic predictions were based on a F1 pseudo-testcross population, comprising 153 individuals with contrasting fruit quality traits. They were phenotyped for physical and biochemical fruit metrics in contrasting climatic conditions over two years. Prediction accuracy (PA) varied from 0.31 for glucose content with the Bayesian LASSO (BL) to 0.78 for ethylene production with RR-BLUP, which yielded the most accurate predictions in comparison to Bayesian models and only 10% out of 61,030 SNPs were sufficient to reach accurate predictions. Useful insights were provided on the genetic architecture of apricot fruit quality whose integration in prediction models improved their performance, notably for traits governed by major QTL. Furthermore, multivariate modeling yielded promising outcomes in terms of PA within training partitions partially phenotyped for target traits. This provides a useful framework for the implementation of indirect selection based on easy-to-measure traits. Thus, we highlighted the main levers to take into account for the implementation of GS for fruit quality in apricot, but also to improve the genetic gain in perennial species.

In sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], hybrid cultivars for the biofuel industry are desired. Along with selection based on testcross performance, evaluation of the breeding population per se is also important for the success of hybrid breeding. In addition to additive genetic effects, non-additive (i.e., dominance and epistatic) effects are expected to contribute to the performance of early generations. Unfortunately, studies on early generations in sorghum breeding programs are limited. In this study, we analyzed a breeding population for bioenergy sorghum, which was previously developed based on testcross performance, to compare genomic selection models both trained on and evaluated for the per se performance of the 3rd generation S0 individuals. Of over 200 ancestral inbred accessions in the base population, only 13 founders contributed to the 3rd generation as progenitors. Compared to the founders, the performances of the population per se were improved for target traits. The total genetic variance within the S0 generation progenies themselves for all traits was mainly additive, although non-additive variances contributed to each trait to some extent. For genomic selection, linear regression models explicitly considering all genetic components showed a higher predictive ability than other linear and non-linear models. Although the number and effect distribution of underlying loci was different among the traits, the influence of priors for marker effects was relatively small. These results indicate the importance of considering non-additive effects for dissecting the genetic architecture of early breeding generations and predicting the performance per se.

Due to the ever-increasing data collected in genomic breeding programs, there is a need for genomic prediction models that can deal better with big data. For this reason, here we propose a Maximum a posteriori Threshold Genomic Prediction (MAPT) model for ordinal traits that is more efficient than the conventional Bayesian Threshold Genomic Prediction model for ordinal traits. The MAPT performs the predictions of the Threshold Genomic Prediction model by using the maximum a posteriori estimation of the parameters, that is, the values of the parameters that maximize the joint posterior density. We compared the prediction performance of the proposed MAPT to the conventional Bayesian Threshold Genomic Prediction model, the multinomial Ridge regression and support vector machine on 8 real data sets. We found that the proposed MAPT was competitive with regard to the multinomial and support vector machine models in terms of prediction performance, and slightly better than the conventional Bayesian Threshold Genomic Prediction model. With regard to the implementation time, we found that in general the MAPT and the support vector machine were the best, while the slowest was the multinomial Ridge regression model. However, it is important to point out that the successful implementation of the proposed MAPT model depends on the informative priors used to avoid underestimation of variance components.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) use the results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to predict quantitative phenotypes or disease risk at an individual level, and provide a potential route to the use of genetic data in personalized medical care. However, a major barrier to the use of PRS is that the majority of GWAS come from cohorts of European ancestry. The predictive power of PRS constructed from these studies is substantially lower in non-European ancestry cohorts, although the reasons for this are unclear. To address this question, we investigate the performance of PRS for height in cohorts with admixed African and European ancestry, allowing us to evaluate ancestry-related differences in PRS predictive accuracy while controlling for environment and cohort differences. We first show that the predictive accuracy of height PRS increases linearly with European ancestry and is partially explained by European ancestry segments of the admixed genomes. We show that recombination rate, differences in allele frequencies, and differences in marginal effect sizes across ancestries all contribute to the decrease in predictive power, but none of these effects explain the decrease on its own. Finally, we demonstrate that prediction for admixed individuals can be improved by using a linear combination of PRS that includes ancestry-specific effect sizes, although this approach is at present limited by the small size of non-European ancestry discovery cohorts.

Plant growth, development, and nutritional quality depends upon amino acid homeostasis, especially in seeds. However, our understanding of the underlying genetics influencing amino acid content and composition remains limited, with only a few candidate genes and quantitative trait loci identified to date. Improved knowledge of the genetics and biological processes that determine amino acid levels will enable researchers to use this information for plant breeding and biological discovery. Toward this goal, we used genomic prediction to identify biological processes that are associated with, and therefore potentially influence, free amino acid (FAA) composition in seeds of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. Markers were split into categories based on metabolic pathway annotations and fit using a genomic partitioning model to evaluate the influence of each pathway on heritability explained, model fit, and predictive ability. Selected pathways included processes known to influence FAA composition, albeit to an unknown degree, and spanned four categories: amino acid, core, specialized, and protein metabolism. Using this approach, we identified associations for pathways containing known variants for FAA traits, in addition to finding new trait-pathway associations. Markers related to amino acid metabolism, which are directly involved in FAA regulation, improved predictive ability for branched chain amino acids and histidine. The use of genomic partitioning also revealed patterns across biochemical families, in which serine-derived FAAs were associated with protein related annotations and aromatic FAAs were associated with specialized metabolic pathways. Taken together, these findings provide evidence that genomic partitioning is a viable strategy to uncover the relative contributions of biological processes to FAA traits in seeds, offering a promising framework to guide hypothesis testing and narrow the search space for candidate genes.

The paradigm called genomic selection (GS) is a revolutionary way of developing new plants and animals. This is a predictive methodology, since it uses learning methods to perform its task. Unfortunately, there is no universal model that can be used for all types of predictions; for this reason, specific methodologies are required for each type of output (response variables). Since there is a lack of efficient methodologies for multivariate count data outcomes, in this paper, a multivariate Poisson deep neural network (MPDN) model is proposed for the genomic prediction of various count outcomes simultaneously. The MPDN model uses the minus log-likelihood of a Poisson distribution as a loss function, in hidden layers for capturing nonlinear patterns using the rectified linear unit (RELU) activation function and, in the output layer, the exponential activation function was used for producing outputs on the same scale of counts. The proposed MPDN model was compared to conventional generalized Poisson regression models and univariate Poisson deep learning models in two experimental data sets of count data. We found that the proposed MPDL outperformed univariate Poisson deep neural network models, but did not outperform, in terms of prediction, the univariate generalized Poisson regression models. All deep learning models were implemented in Tensorflow as back-end and Keras as front-end, which allows implementing these models on moderate and large data sets, which is a significant advantage over previous GS models for multivariate count data.

Improving fruit quality is an important but challenging breeding goal in winter squash. Squash breeding in general is resource-intensive, especially in terms of space, and the biology of squash makes it difficult to practice selection on both parents. These restrictions translate to smaller breeding populations and limited use of greenhouse generations, which in turn, limit genetic gain per breeding cycle and increases cycle length. Genomic selection is a promising technology for improving breeding efficiency; yet, few studies have explored its use in horticultural crops. We present results demonstrating the predictive ability of whole-genome models for fruit quality traits. Predictive abilities for quality traits were low to moderate, but sufficient for implementation. To test the use of genomic selection for improving fruit quality, we conducted three rounds of genomic recurrent selection in a butternut squash (Cucurbita moschata) population. Selections were based on a fruit quality index derived from a multi-trait genomic selection model. Remnant seed from selected populations was used to assess realized gain from selection. Analysis revealed significant improvement in fruit quality index value and changes in correlated traits. This study is one of the first empirical studies to evaluate gain from a multi-trait genomic selection model in a resource-limited horticultural crop.

Most of the genomic studies in plants and animals have used additive models for studying genetic parameters and prediction accuracies. In this study, we used genomic models with additive and nonadditive effects to analyze the genetic architecture of growth and wood traits in an open-pollinated (OP) population of Eucalyptus pellita. We used two progeny trials consisting of 5742 trees from 244 OP families to estimate genetic parameters and to test genomic prediction accuracies of three growth traits (diameter at breast height - DBH, total height - Ht and tree volume - Vol) and kraft pulp yield (KPY). From 5742 trees, 468 trees from 28 families were genotyped with 2023 pre-selected markers from candidate genes. We used the pedigree-based additive best linear unbiased prediction (ABLUP) model and two marker-based models (single-step genomic BLUP – ssGBLUP and genomic BLUP – GBLUP) to estimate the genetic parameters and compare the prediction accuracies. Analyses with the two genomic models revealed large dominant effects influencing the growth traits but not KPY. Theoretical breeding value accuracies were higher with the dominance effect in ssGBLUP model for the three growth traits. Accuracies of cross-validation with random folding in the genotyped trees have ranged from 0.60 to 0.82 in different models. Accuracies of ABLUP were lower than the genomic models. Accuracies ranging from 0.50 to 0.76 were observed for within family cross-validation predictions with low relationships between training and validation populations indicating part of the functional variation is captured by the markers through short-range linkage disequilibrium (LD). Within-family phenotype predictive abilities and prediction accuracies of genetic values with dominance effects are higher than the additive models for growth traits indicating the importance of dominance effects in predicting phenotypes and genetic values. This study demonstrates the importance of genomic approaches in OP families to study nonadditive effects. To capture the LD between markers and the quantitative trait loci (QTL) it may be important to use informative markers from candidate genes.

Genomic selection (GS) is a potential pathway to accelerate genetic gain for perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.). The main objectives of the present study were to investigate the level of genetic gain and accuracy by applying GS in commercial perennial ryegrass breeding programs. Different scenarios were compared to a conventional breeding program. Simulated scenarios differed in the method of selection and structure of the breeding program. Two scenarios (Phen-Y12 and Phen) for phenotypic selection and three scenarios (GS-Y12, GS and GS-SP) were considered for genomic breeding schemes. All breeding schemes were simulated for 25 cycles. The amount of genetic gain achieved was different across scenarios. Compared to phenotypic scenarios, GS scenarios resulted in substantially larger genetic gain for the simulated traits. This was mainly due to more efficient selection of plots and single plants based on genomic estimated breeding values. Also, GS allows for reduction in waiting time for the availability of the superior genetic materials from previous cycles, which led to at least a doubling or a trebling of genetic gain compared to the traditional program. Reduction in additive genetic variance levels were higher with GS scenarios than with phenotypic selection. The results demonstrated that implementation of GS in ryegrass breeding is possible and presents an opportunity to make very significant improvements in genetic gains.

Husk has multiple functions such as protecting ears from diseases, infection, and dehydration during development. Additionally, husks comprised of fewer, shorter, thinner, and narrower layers allow faster moisture evaporation of kernels prior to harvest. Intensive studies have been conducted to identify appropriate husk architecture by understanding the genetic basis of related traits, including husk length, husk layer number, husk thickness, and husk width. However, marker-assisted selection is inefficient because the identified quantitative trait loci and associated genetic loci could only explain a small proportion of total phenotypic variation. Genomic selection (GS) has been used successfully on many species including maize on other traits. Thus, the potential of using GS for husk traits to directly identify superior inbred lines, without knowing the specific underlying genetic loci, is well worth exploring. In this study, we compared four GS models on a maize association population with 498 inbred lines belonging to four subpopulations, including 27 lines in stiff stalk, 67 lines in non-stiff stalk, 193 lines in tropical-subtropical, and 211 lines in mixture subpopulations. Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction with principal components as cofactor, performed the best and was selected to examine the impact of interaction between sampling proportions and subpopulations. We found that predictions on inbred lines in a subpopulation were benefited from excluding individuals from other subpopulations for training if the training population within the subpopulation was large enough. Husk thickness exhibited the highest prediction accuracy among all husk traits. These results gave strategic insight to improve husk architecture.

The natural genetic diversity of agricultural species is an essential genetic resource for breeding programs aiming to improve their ecosystem and production services. A large natural ecotype diversity is usually available for most grassland species. This could be used to recombine natural climatic adaptations and agronomic value to create improved populations of grassland species adapted to future regional climates. However describing natural genetic resources can be long and costly. Molecular markers may provide useful information to help this task. This opportunity was investigated for Lolium perenne L., using a set of 385 accessions from the natural diversity of this species collected right across Europe and provided by genebanks of several countries. For each of these populations, genotyping provided the allele frequencies of 189,781 SNP markers. GWAS were implemented for over 30 agronomic and/or putatively adaptive traits recorded in three climatically contrasted locations (France, Belgium, Germany). Significant associations were detected for hundreds of markers despite a strong confounding effect of the genetic background; most of them pertained to phenology traits. It is likely that genetic variability in these traits has had an important contribution to environmental adaptation and ecotype differentiation. Genomic prediction models calibrated using natural diversity were found to be highly effective to describe natural populations for almost all traits as well as commercial synthetic populations for some important traits such as disease resistance, spring growth or phenological traits. These results will certainly be valuable information to help the use of natural genetic resources of other species.

Genomic selection uses whole-genome marker models to predict phenotypes or genetic values for complex traits. Some of these models fit interaction terms between markers, and are therefore called epistatic. The biological interpretation of the corresponding fitted effects is not straightforward and there is the threat of overinterpreting their functional meaning. Here we show that the predictive ability of epistatic models relative to additive models can change with the density of the marker panel. In more detail, we show that for publicly available Arabidopsis and rice datasets, an initial superiority of epistatic models over additive models, which can be observed at a lower marker density, vanishes when the number of markers increases. We relate these observations to earlier results reported in the context of association studies which showed that detecting statistical epistatic effects may not only be related to interactions in the underlying genetic architecture, but also to incomplete linkage disequilibrium at low marker density (“Phantom Epistasis”). Finally, we illustrate in a simulation study that due to phantom epistasis, epistatic models may also predict the genetic value of an underlying purely additive genetic architecture better than additive models, when the marker density is low. Our observations can encourage the use of genomic epistatic models with low density panels, and discourage their biological over-interpretation.

Zinc (Zn) deficiency is a major risk factor for human health, affecting about 30% of the world’s population. To study the potential of genomic selection (GS) for maize with increased Zn concentration, an association panel and two doubled haploid (DH) populations were evaluated in three environments. Three genomic prediction models, M (M1: Environment + Line, M2: Environment + Line + Genomic, and M3: Environment + Line + Genomic + Genomic x Environment) incorporating main effects (lines and genomic) and the interaction between genomic and environment (G x E) were assessed to estimate the prediction ability (rMP) for each model. Two distinct cross-validation (CV) schemes simulating two genomic prediction breeding scenarios were used. CV1 predicts the performance of newly developed lines, whereas CV2 predicts the performance of lines tested in sparse multi-location trials. Predictions for Zn in CV1 ranged from -0.01 to 0.56 for DH1, 0.04 to 0.50 for DH2 and -0.001 to 0.47 for the association panel. For CV2, rMP values ranged from 0.67 to 0.71 for DH1, 0.40 to 0.56 for DH2 and 0.64 to 0.72 for the association panel. The genomic prediction model which included G x E had the highest average rMP for both CV1 (0.39 and 0.44) and CV2 (0.71 and 0.51) for the association panel and DH2 population, respectively. These results suggest that GS has potential to accelerate breeding for enhanced kernel Zn concentration by facilitating selection of superior genotypes.

We investigated the effectiveness of mate allocation strategies accounting for non-additive genetic effects to improve crossbred performance in a two-way crossbreeding scheme. We did this by computer simulation of 10 generations of evaluation and selection. QTL effects were simulated as correlated across purebreds and crossbreds, and (positive) heterosis was simulated as directional dominance. The purebred-crossbred correlation was 0.30 or 0.68 depending on the genetic variance component used. Dominance and additive marker effects were estimated simultaneously for purebreds and crossbreds by multiple trait genomic BLUP. Four scenarios that differ in the sources of information (only purebred data, or purebred and crossbred data) and mate allocation strategies (mating at random, minimizing expected future inbreeding, or maximizing the expected total genetic value of crossbred animals) were evaluated under different cases of genetic variance components. Selecting purebred animals for purebred performance yielded a response of 0.2 genetic standard deviations of the trait “crossbred performance” per generation, whereas selecting purebred animals for crossbred performance doubled the genetic response. Mate allocation strategy to maximize the expected total genetic value of crossbred descendants resulted in a slight increase (0.8%, 4% and 0.5% depending on the genetic variance components) of the crossbred performance. Purebred populations increased homozygosity, but the heterozygosity of the crossbreds remained constant. When purebred-crossbred genetic correlation is low, selecting purebred animals for crossbred performance using crossbred information is a more efficient strategy to exploit heterosis and increase performance at the crossbred commercial level, whereas mate allocation did not improve crossbred performance.

“Sparse testing” refers to reduced multi-environment breeding trials in which not all genotypes of interest are grown in each environment. Using genomic-enabled prediction and a model embracing genotype × environment interaction (GE), the non-observed genotype-in-environment combinations can be predicted. Consequently, the overall costs can be reduced and the testing capacities can be increased. The accuracy of predicting the unobserved data depends on different factors including (1) how many genotypes overlap between environments, (2) in how many environments each genotype is grown, and (3) which prediction method is used. In this research, we studied the predictive ability obtained when using a fixed number of plots and different sparse testing designs. The considered designs included the extreme cases of (1) no overlap of genotypes between environments, and (2) complete overlap of the genotypes between environments. In the latter case, the prediction set fully consists of genotypes that have not been tested at all. Moreover, we gradually go from one extreme to the other considering (3) intermediates between the two previous cases with varying numbers of different or non-overlapping (NO)/overlapping (O) genotypes. The empirical study is built upon two different maize hybrid data sets consisting of different genotypes crossed to two different testers (T1 and T2) and each data set was analyzed separately. For each set, phenotypic records on yield from three different environments are available. Three different prediction models were implemented, two main effects models (M1 and M2), and a model (M3) including GE. The results showed that the genome-based model including GE (M3) captured more phenotypic variation than the models that did not include this component. Also, M3 provided higher prediction accuracy than models M1 and M2 for the different allocation scenarios. Reducing the size of the calibration sets decreased the prediction accuracy under all allocation designs with M3 being the less affected model; however, using the genome-enabled models (i.e., M2 and M3) the predictive ability is recovered when more genotypes are tested across environments. Our results indicate that a substantial part of the testing resources can be saved when using genome-based models including GE for optimizing sparse testing designs.

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is a common, debilitating condition that leads to early-onset osteoarthritis and reduced quality of human life. ACL rupture is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Characterizing the genetic basis of ACL rupture would provide the ability to identify individuals that have high genetic risk and allow the opportunity for preventative management. Spontaneous ACL rupture is also common in dogs and shows a similar clinical presentation and progression. Thus, the dog has emerged as an excellent genomic model for human ACL rupture. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the dog have identified a number of candidate genetic variants, but research in genomic prediction has been limited. In this analysis, we explore several Bayesian and machine learning models for genomic prediction of ACL rupture in the Labrador Retriever dog. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of predicting ACL rupture from SNPs in the Labrador Retriever model with and without consideration of non-genetic risk factors. Genomic prediction including non-genetic risk factors approached clinical relevance using multiple linear Bayesian and non-linear models. This analysis represents the first steps toward development of a predictive algorithm for ACL rupture in the Labrador Retriever model. Future work may extend this algorithm to other high-risk breeds of dog. The ability to accurately predict individual dogs at high risk for ACL rupture would identify candidates for clinical trials that would benefit both veterinary and human medicine.

Modern crop breeding is in constant demand for new genetic diversity as part of the arms race with genetic gain. The elite gene pool has limited genetic variation and breeders are trying to introduce novelty from unadapted germplasm, landraces and wild relatives. For polygenic traits, currently available approaches to introgression are not ideal, as there is a demonstrable bias against exotic alleles during selection. Here, we propose a partitioned form of genomic selection, called Origin Specific Genomic Selection (OSGS), where we identify and target selection on favorable exotic alleles. Briefly, within a population derived from a bi-parental cross, we isolate alleles originating from the elite and exotic parents, which then allows us to separate out the predicted marker effects based on the allele origins. We validated the usefulness of OSGS using two nested association mapping (NAM) datasets: barley NAM (elite-exotic) and maize NAM (elite-elite), as well as by computer simulation. Our results suggest that OSGS works well in its goal to increase the contribution of favorable exotic alleles in bi-parental crosses, and it is possible to extend the approach to broader multi-parental populations.

The use of haplotypes may improve the accuracy of genomic prediction over single SNPs because haplotypes can better capture linkage disequilibrium and genomic similarity in different lines and may capture local high-order allelic interactions. Additionally, prediction accuracy could be improved by portraying population structure in the calibration set. A set of 383 advanced lines and cultivars that represent the diversity of the University of Minnesota wheat breeding program was phenotyped for yield, test weight, and protein content and genotyped using the Illumina 90K SNP Assay. Population structure was confirmed using single SNPs. Haplotype blocks of 5, 10, 15, and 20 adjacent markers were constructed for all chromosomes. A multi-allelic haplotype prediction algorithm was implemented and compared with single SNPs using both k-fold cross validation and stratified sampling optimization. After confirming population structure, the stratified sampling improved the predictive ability compared with k-fold cross validation for yield and protein content, but reduced the predictive ability for test weight. In all cases, haplotype predictions outperformed single SNPs. Haplotypes of 15 adjacent markers showed the best improvement in accuracy for all traits; however, this was more pronounced in yield and protein content. The combined use of haplotypes of 15 adjacent markers and training population optimization significantly improved the predictive ability for yield and protein content by 14.3 (four percentage points) and 16.8% (seven percentage points), respectively, compared with using single SNPs and k-fold cross validation. These results emphasize the effectiveness of using haplotypes in genomic selection to increase genetic gain in self-fertilized crops.

Miscanthus is a perennial grass with potential for lignocellulosic ethanol production. To ensure its utility for this purpose, breeding efforts should focus on increasing genetic diversity of the nothospecies Miscanthus × giganteus (M×g) beyond the single clone used in many programs. Germplasm from the corresponding parental species M. sinensis (Msi) and M. sacchariflorus (Msa) could theoretically be used as training sets for genomic prediction of M×g clones with optimal genomic estimated breeding values for biofuel traits. To this end, we first showed that subpopulation structure makes a substantial contribution to the genomic selection (GS) prediction accuracies within a 538-member diversity panel of predominately Msi individuals and a 598-member diversity panels of Msa individuals. We then assessed the ability of these two diversity panels to train GS models that predict breeding values in an interspecific diploid 216-member M×g F2 panel. Low and negative prediction accuracies were observed when various subsets of the two diversity panels were used to train these GS models. To overcome the drawback of having only one interspecific M×g F2 panel available, we also evaluated prediction accuracies for traits simulated in 50 simulated interspecific M×g F2 panels derived from different sets of Msi and diploid Msa parents. The results revealed that genetic architectures with common causal mutations across Msi and Msa yielded the highest prediction accuracies. Ultimately, these results suggest that the ideal training set should contain the same causal mutations segregating within interspecific M×g populations, and thus efforts should be undertaken to ensure that individuals in the training and validation sets are as closely related as possible.

A combined multistage linear genomic selection index (CMLGSI) is a linear combination of phenotypic and genomic estimated breeding values useful for predicting the individual net genetic merit, which in turn is a linear combination of the true unobservable breeding values of the traits weighted by their respective economic values. The CMLGSI is a cost-saving strategy for improving multiple traits because the breeder does not need to measure all traits at each stage. The optimum (OCMLGSI) and decorrelated (DCMLGSI) indices are the main CMLGSIs. Whereas the OCMLGSI takes into consideration the index correlation values among stages, the DCMLGSI imposes the restriction that the index correlation values among stages be zero. Using real and simulated datasets, we compared the efficiency of both indices in a two-stage context. The criteria we applied to compare the efficiency of both indices were that the total selection response of each index must be lower than or equal to the single-stage combined linear genomic selection index (CLGSI) response and that the correlation of each index with the net genetic merit should be maximum. Using four different total proportions for the real dataset, the estimated total OCMLGSI and DCMLGSI responses explained 97.5% and 90%, respectively, of the estimated single-stage CLGSI selection response. In addition, at stage two, the estimated correlations of the OCMLGSI and the DCMLGSI with the net genetic merit were 0.84 and 0.63, respectively. We found similar results for the simulated datasets. Thus, we recommend using the OCMLGSI when performing multistage selection.

Diverse crops are both outbred and clonally propagated. Breeders typically use truncation selection of parents and invest significant time, land, and money evaluating the progeny of crosses to find exceptional genotypes. We developed and tested genomic mate selection criteria suitable for organisms of arbitrary homozygosity level where the full-sibling progeny are of direct interest as future parents and/or cultivars. We extended cross variance and covariance variance prediction to include dominance effects and predicted the multivariate selection index genetic variance of crosses based on haplotypes of proposed parents, marker effects, and recombination frequencies. We combined the predicted mean and variance into usefulness criteria for parent and variety development. We present an empirical study of cassava (Manihot esculenta), a staple tropical root crop. We assessed the potential to predict the multivariate genetic distribution (means, variances, and trait covariances) of 462 cassava families in terms of additive and total value using cross-validation. Most variance (89%) and covariance (70%) prediction accuracy estimates were greater than zero. The usefulness of crosses was accurately predicted with good correspondence between the predicted and the actual mean performance of family members breeders selected for advancement as new parents and candidate varieties. We also used a directional dominance model to quantify significant inbreeding depression for most traits. We predicted 47,083 possible crosses of 306 parents and contrasted them to those previously tested to show how mate selection can reveal the new potential within the germplasm. We enable breeders to consider the potential of crosses to produce future parents (progeny with top breeding values) and varieties (progeny with top own performance). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant breeders regularly evaluate multiple traits across multiple environments, which opens an avenue for using multiple traits in genomic prediction models. We assessed the potential of multi-trait (MT) genomic prediction model through evaluating several strategies of incorporating multiple traits (eight agronomic and malting quality traits) into the prediction models with two cross-validation schemes (CV1, predicting new lines with genotypic information only and CV2, predicting partially phenotyped lines using both genotypic and phenotypic information from correlated traits) in barley. The predictive ability was similar for single (ST-CV1) and multi-trait (MT-CV1) models to predict new lines. However, the predictive ability for agronomic traits was considerably increased when partially phenotyped lines (MT-CV2) were used. The predictive ability for grain yield using the MT-CV2 model with other agronomic traits resulted in 57% and 61% higher predictive ability than ST-CV1 and MT-CV1 models, respectively. Therefore, complex traits such as grain yield are better predicted when correlated traits are used. Similarly, a considerable increase in the predictive ability of malting quality traits was observed when correlated traits were used. The predictive ability for grain protein content using the MT-CV2 model with both agronomic and malting traits resulted in a 76% higher predictive ability than ST-CV1 and MT-CV1 models. Additionally, the higher predictive ability for new environments was obtained for all traits using the MT-CV2 model compared to the MT-CV1 model. This study showed the potential of improving the genomic prediction of complex traits by incorporating the information from multiple traits (cost-friendly and easy to measure traits) collected throughout breeding programs which could assist in speeding up breeding cycles.

Genomic selection enables cumulative genetic gains in key production traits such as disease resistance, playing an important role in the economic and environmental sustainability of aquaculture production. However, it requires genome-wide genetic marker data on large populations, which can be prohibitively expensive. Genotype imputation is a cost-effective method for obtaining high-density genotypes, but its value in aquaculture breeding programs which are characterized by large full-sibling families has yet to be fully assessed. The aim of this study was to optimize the use of low-density genotypes and evaluate genotype imputation strategies for cost-effective genomic prediction. Phenotypes and genotypes (78,362 SNPs) were obtained for 610 individuals from a Scottish Atlantic salmon breeding program population (Landcatch, UK) challenged with sea lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis. The genomic prediction accuracy of genomic selection was calculated using GBLUP approaches and compared across SNP panels of varying densities and composition, with and without imputation. Imputation was tested when parents were genotyped for the optimal SNP panel, and offspring were genotyped for a range of lower density imputation panels. Reducing SNP density had little impact on prediction accuracy until 5,000 SNPs, below which the accuracy dropped. Imputation accuracy increased with increasing imputation panel density. Genomic prediction accuracy when offspring were genotyped for just 200 SNPs, and parents for 5,000 SNPs, was 0.53. This accuracy was similar to the full high density and optimal density dataset, and markedly higher than using 200 SNPs without imputation. These results suggest that imputation from very low to medium density can be a cost-effective tool for genomic selection in Atlantic salmon breeding programs.

The ability to connect genetic information between traits over time allow Bayesian networks to offer a powerful probabilistic framework to construct genomic prediction models. In this study, we phenotyped a diversity panel of 869 biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) lines, which had been genotyped with 100,435 SNP markers, for plant height (PH) with biweekly measurements from 30 to 120 days after planting (DAP) and for end-of-season dry biomass yield (DBY) in four environments. We evaluated five genomic prediction models: Bayesian network (BN), Pleiotropic Bayesian network (PBN), Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), multi-trait GBLUP (MTr-GBLUP), and multi-time GBLUP (MTi-GBLUP) models. In fivefold cross-validation, prediction accuracies ranged from 0.46 (PBN) to 0.49 (MTr-GBLUP) for DBY and from 0.47 (DBN, DAP120) to 0.75 (MTi-GBLUP, DAP60) for PH. Forward-chaining cross-validation further improved prediction accuracies of the DBN, MTi-GBLUP and MTr-GBLUP models for PH (training slice: 30-45 DAP) by 36.4–52.4% relative to the BN and PBN models. Coincidence indices (target: biomass, secondary: PH) and a coincidence index based on lines (PH time series) showed that the ranking of lines by PH changed minimally after 45 DAP. These results suggest a two-level indirect selection method for PH at harvest (first-level target trait) and DBY (second-level target trait) could be conducted earlier in the season based on ranking of lines by PH at 45 DAP (secondary trait). With the advance of high-throughput phenotyping technologies, our proposed two-level indirect selection framework could be valuable for enhancing genetic gain per unit of time when selecting on developmental traits.

Many breeds of modern cattle are naturally horned, and for sound husbandry management reasons the calves frequently undergo procedures to physically remove the horns by disbudding or dehorning. These procedures are however a welfare concern. Selective breeding for polledness – absence of horns – has been effective in some cattle breeds but not in others (Bos indicus genotypes) due in part to the complex genetics of horn phenotype. To address this problem different approaches to genetic testing which provide accurate early-in-life prediction of horn phenotype have been evaluated, initially using microsatellites (MSAT) and more recently single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). A direct gene test is not effective given the genetic heterogeneity and large-sized sequence variants associated with polledness in different breeds. The current study investigated 39,943 animals of multiple breeds to assess the accuracy of available poll testing assays. While the standard SNP-based test was an improvement on the earlier MSAT haplotyping method, 1999 (9.69%) out of 20,636 animals tested with this SNP-based assay did not predict a genotype, most commonly associated with the Indicus-influenced breeds. The current study has developed an optimized poll gene test that resolved the vast majority of these 1999 unresolved animals, while the predicted genotypes of those previously resolved remained unchanged. Hence the optimized poll test successfully predicted a genotype in 99.96% of samples assessed. We demonstrated that a robust set of 5 SNPs can effectively determine PC and PF alleles and eliminate the ambiguous and undetermined results of poll gene testing previously identified as an issue in cattle.

Prediction of phenotypes from genotypes is an important objective to fulfill the promises of genomics, precision medicine and agriculture. Although it’s now possible to account for the majority of genetic variation through model fitting, prediction of phenotypes remains a challenge, especially across populations that have diverged in the past. In this study, we designed simulation experiments to specifically investigate the role of genetic interactions in failure of polygenic prediction. We found that non-additive genetic interactions can significantly reduce the accuracy of polygenic prediction. Our study demonstrated the importance of considering genetic interactions in genetic prediction.

The constrained linear genomic selection index (CLGSI) is a linear combination of genomic estimated breeding values useful for predicting the net genetic merit, which in turn is a linear combination of true unobservable breeding values of the traits weighted by their respective economic values. The CLGSI is the most general genomic index and allows imposing constraints on the expected genetic gain per trait to make some traits change their mean values based on a predetermined level, while the rest of them remain without restrictions. In addition, it includes the unconstrained linear genomic index as a particular case. Using two real datasets and simulated data for seven selection cycles, we compared the theoretical results of the CLGSI with the theoretical results of the constrained linear phenotypic selection index (CLPSI). The criteria used to compare CLGSI vs. CLPSI efficiency were the estimated expected genetic gain per trait values, the selection response, and the interval between selection cycles. The results indicated that because the interval between selection cycles is shorter for the CLGSI than for the CLPSI, CLGSI is more efficient than CLPSI per unit of time, but its efficiency could be lower per selection cycle. Thus, CLGSI is a good option for performing genomic selection when there are genotyped candidates for selection.

The evaluation of prediction machines is an important step for a successful implementation of genomic-enabled selection in plant breeding. Computation time and predictive ability constitute key metrics to determine the methodology utilized for the consolidation of genomic prediction pipeline. This study introduces two methods designed to couple high prediction accuracy with efficient computational performance: 1) a non-MCMC method to estimate marker effects with a Laplace prior; and 2) an iterative framework that allows solving whole-genome regression within mixed models with replicated observations in a single-stage. The investigation provides insights on predictive ability and marker effect estimates. Various genomic prediction techniques are compared based on cross-validation, assessing predictions across and within family. Properties of quantitative trait loci detection and single-stage method were evaluated on simulated plot-level data from unbalanced data structures. Estimation of marker effects by the new model is compared to a genome-wide association analysis and whole-genome regression methods. The single-stage approach is compared to a GBLUP fitted via restricted maximum likelihood, and a two-stages approaches where genetic values fit a whole-genome regression. The proposed framework provided high computational efficiency, robust prediction across datasets, and accurate estimation of marker effects.

The usefulness of genomic prediction in crop and livestock breeding programs has prompted efforts to develop new and improved genomic prediction algorithms, such as artificial neural networks and gradient tree boosting. However, the performance of these algorithms has not been compared in a systematic manner using a wide range of datasets and models. Using data of 18 traits across six plant species with different marker densities and training population sizes, we compared the performance of six linear and six non-linear algorithms. First, we found that hyperparameter selection was necessary for all non-linear algorithms and that feature selection prior to model training was critical for artificial neural networks when the markers greatly outnumbered the number of training lines. Across all species and trait combinations, no one algorithm performed best, however predictions based on a combination of results from multiple algorithms (i.e., ensemble predictions) performed consistently well. While linear and non-linear algorithms performed best for a similar number of traits, the performance of non-linear algorithms vary more between traits. Although artificial neural networks did not perform best for any trait, we identified strategies (i.e., feature selection, seeded starting weights) that boosted their performance to near the level of other algorithms. Our results highlight the importance of algorithm selection for the prediction of trait values.

Incorporating measurements on correlated traits into genomic prediction models can increase prediction accuracy and selection gain. However, multi-trait genomic prediction models are complex and prone to overfitting which may result in a loss of prediction accuracy relative to single-trait genomic prediction. Cross-validation is considered the gold standard method for selecting and tuning models for genomic prediction in both plant and animal breeding. When used appropriately, cross-validation gives an accurate estimate of the prediction accuracy of a genomic prediction model, and can effectively choose among disparate models based on their expected performance in real data. However, we show that a naive cross-validation strategy applied to the multi-trait prediction problem can be severely biased and lead to sub-optimal choices between single and multi-trait models when secondary traits are used to aid in the prediction of focal traits and these secondary traits are measured on the individuals to be tested. We use simulations to demonstrate the extent of the problem and propose three partial solutions: 1) a parametric solution from selection index theory, 2) a semi-parametric method for correcting the cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracy, and 3) a fully non-parametric method which we call CV2*: validating model predictions against focal trait measurements from genetically related individuals. The current excitement over high-throughput phenotyping suggests that more comprehensive phenotype measurements will be useful for accelerating breeding programs. Using an appropriate cross-validation strategy should more reliably determine if and when combining information across multiple traits is useful.

In this paper we propose a Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking (BMORS) model that is a generalization of the multi-trait regressor stacking method. The proposed BMORS model consists of two stages: in the first stage, a univariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP including genotype × environment interaction GE) model is implemented for each of the L traits under study; then the predictions of all traits are included as covariates in the second stage, by implementing a Ridge regression model. The main objectives of this research were to study alternative models to the existing multi-trait multi-environment (BMTME) model with respect to (1) genomic-enabled prediction accuracy, and (2) potential advantages in terms of computing resources and implementation. We compared the predictions of the BMORS model to those of the univariate GBLUP model using 7 maize and wheat datasets. We found that the proposed BMORS produced similar predictions to the univariate GBLUP model and to the BMTME model in terms of prediction accuracy; however, the best predictions were obtained under the BMTME model. In terms of computing resources, we found that the BMORS is at least 9 times faster than the BMTME method. Based on our empirical findings, the proposed BMORS model is an alternative for predicting multi-trait and multi-environment data, which are very common in genomic-enabled prediction in plant and animal breeding programs.

The many quantitative traits of interest to plant breeders are often genetically correlated, which can complicate progress from selection. Improving multiple traits may be enhanced by identifying parent combinations – an important breeding step – that will deliver more favorable genetic correlations (rG). Modeling the segregation of genomewide markers with estimated effects may be one method of predicting rG in a cross, but this approach remains untested. Our objectives were to: (i) use simulations to assess the accuracy of genomewide predictions of rG and the long-term response to selection when selecting crosses on the basis of such predictions; and (ii) empirically measure the ability to predict genetic correlations using data from a barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding program. Using simulations, we found that the accuracy to predict rG was generally moderate and influenced by trait heritability, population size, and genetic correlation architecture (i.e., pleiotropy or linkage disequilibrium). Among 26 barley breeding populations, the empirical prediction accuracy of rG was low (-0.012) to moderate (0.42), depending on trait complexity. Within a simulated plant breeding program employing indirect selection, choosing crosses based on predicted rG increased multi-trait genetic gain by 11–27% compared to selection on the predicted cross mean. Importantly, when the starting genetic correlation was negative, such cross selection mitigated or prevented an unfavorable response in the trait under indirect selection. Prioritizing crosses based on predicted genetic correlation can be a feasible and effective method of improving unfavorably correlated traits in breeding programs.

Recent advancements in phenomics coupled with increased output from sequencing technologies can create the platform needed to rapidly increase abiotic stress tolerance of crops, which increasingly face productivity challenges due to climate change. In particular, high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) enables researchers to generate large-scale data with temporal resolution. Recently, a random regression model (RRM) was used to model a longitudinal rice projected shoot area (PSA) dataset in an optimal growth environment. However, the utility of RRM is still unknown for phenotypic trajectories obtained from stress environments. Here, we sought to apply RRM to forecast the rice PSA in control and water-limited conditions under various longitudinal cross-validation scenarios. To this end, genomic Legendre polynomials and B-spline basis functions were used to capture PSA trajectories. Prediction accuracy declined slightly for the water-limited plants compared to control plants. Overall, RRM delivered reasonable prediction performance and yielded better prediction than the baseline multi-trait model. The difference between the results obtained using Legendre polynomials and that using B-splines was small; however, the former yielded a higher prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy for forecasting the last five time points was highest when the entire trajectory from earlier growth stages was used to train the basis functions. Our results suggested that it was possible to decrease phenotyping frequency by only phenotyping every other day in order to reduce costs while minimizing the loss of prediction accuracy. This is the first study showing that RRM could be used to model changes in growth over time under abiotic stress conditions.

The increasing amount of available biological information on the markers can be used to inform the models applied for genomic selection to improve predictions. The objective of this study was to propose a general model for genomic selection using a link function approach within the hierarchical generalized linear model framework (hglm) that can include external information on the markers. These models can be fitted using the well-established hglm package in R. We also present an R package (CodataGS) to fit these models, which is significantly faster than the hglm package. Simulated data were used to validate the proposed model. We tested categorical, continuous and combination models where the external information on the markers was related to 1) the location of the QTL on the genome with varying degree of uncertainty, 2) the relationship of the markers with the QTL calculated as the LD between them, and 3) a combination of both. The proposed models showed improved accuracies from 3.8% up to 23.2% compared to the SNP-BLUP method in a simulated population derived from a base population with 100 individuals. Moreover, the proposed categorical model was tested on a dairy cattle dataset for two traits (Milk Yield and Fat Percentage). These results also showed improved accuracy compared to SNP-BLUP, especially for the Fat% trait. The performance of the proposed models depended on the genetic architecture of the trait, as traits that deviate from the infinitesimal model benefited more from the external information. Also, the gain in accuracy depended on the degree of uncertainty of the external information provided to the model. The usefulness of these type of models is expected to increase with time as more accurate information on the markers becomes available.

Kernel methods are flexible and easy to interpret and have been successfully used in genomic-enabled prediction of various plant species. Kernel methods used in genomic prediction comprise the linear genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP or GB) kernel, and the Gaussian kernel (GK). In general, these kernels have been used with two statistical models: single-environment and genomic × environment (GE) models. Recently near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) has been used as an inexpensive and non-destructive high-throughput phenotyping method for predicting unobserved line performance in plant breeding trials. In this study, we used a non-linear arc-cosine kernel (AK) that emulates deep learning artificial neural networks. We compared AK prediction accuracy with the prediction accuracy of GB and GK kernel methods in four genomic data sets, one of which also includes pedigree and NIR information. Results show that for all four data sets, AK and GK kernels achieved higher prediction accuracy than the linear GB kernel for the single-environment and GE multi-environment models. In addition, AK achieved similar or slightly higher prediction accuracy than the GK kernel. For all data sets, the GE model achieved higher prediction accuracy than the single-environment model. For the data set that includes pedigree, markers and NIR, results show that the NIR wavelength alone achieved lower prediction accuracy than the genomic information alone; however, the pedigree plus NIR information achieved only slightly lower prediction accuracy than the marker plus the NIR high-throughput data.

Intermediate wheatgrass (Thinopyrum intermedium, IWG) is a perennial grain crop with high biomass and grain yield, long seeds, and resistance to pests and diseases. It also reduces soil erosion, nitrate and mineral leaching into underground water tables, and sequesters carbon in its roots. The domestication timeline of IWG as a grain crop spans only 3 decades, hence it lags annual grain crops in yield and seed characteristics. One approach to improve its agronomic traits is by using molecular markers to uncover marker-trait associations. In this study, we performed association mapping on IWG breeding germplasm from the third recurrent selection cycle at the University of Minnesota. The IWG population was phenotyped in St Paul, MN in 2017 and 2018, and in Crookston, MN in 2018 for grain yield, seed length, width and weight, spike length and weight, and number of spikelets per spike. Strong positive correlations were observed among most trait pairs, with correlations as high as 0.76. Genotyping using high throughput sequencing identified 8,899 high-quality genome-wide SNPs which were combined with phenotypic data in association mapping to discover regions associated with the yield component traits. We detected 154 genetic loci associated with these traits of which 19 were shared between at least two traits. Prediction of breeding values using significant loci as fixed effects in genomic selection model improved predictive abilities by up to 14%. Genetic mapping of agronomic traits followed by using genomic selection to predict breeding values can assist breeders in selecting superior genotypes to accelerate IWG domestication.

The genetic merit of individuals can be estimated using models with dense markers and pedigree information. Early genomic models accounted only for additive effects. However, the prediction of non-additive effects is important for different forest breeding systems where the whole genotypic value can be captured through clonal propagation. In this study, we evaluated the integration of marker data with pedigree information, in models that included or ignored non-additive effects. We tested the models Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) and BayesA, with additive and additive-dominance frameworks. Model performance was assessed for the traits tree height, diameter at breast height and rust resistance, measured in 923 pine individuals from a structured population of 71 full-sib families. We have also simulated a population with similar genetic properties and evaluated the performance of models for six simulated traits with distinct genetic architectures. Different cross validation strategies were evaluated, and highest accuracies were achieved using within family cross validation. The inclusion of pedigree information in genomic prediction models did not yield higher accuracies. The different RKHS models resulted in similar predictions accuracies, and RKHS and BayesA generated substantially better predictions than pedigree-only models. The additive-BayesA resulted in higher accuracies than RKHS for rust incidence and in simulated additive-oligogenic traits. For DBH, HT and additive-dominance polygenic traits, the RKHS- based models showed slightly higher accuracies than BayesA. Our results indicate that BayesA performs the best for traits with few genes with major effects, while RKHS based models can best predict genotypic effects for clonal selection of complex traits.