1. A Note on Temporary Supply Shocks with Aggregate Demand Inertia
- Author
-
Caballero, Ricardo J. and Simsek, Alp
- Subjects
divine coincidence ,monetary policy ,temporary supply shocks ,policy frontloading ,momentum ,interest rates ,Taylor rule ,ddc:330 ,the Phillips curve ,E44 ,G12 ,inflation ,Covid-19 ,E52 ,aggregate demand inertia ,output and inflation gaps ,E21 ,E32 ,E43 - Abstract
We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output gaps expected to emerge once supply recovers. However, the policy does not remain loose throughout the low-supply phase: The central bank undoes the initial interest rate cuts once aggregate demand gains momentum. If inflation also has inertia, the central bank still overheats the economy during the low-supply phase but gradually cools it down over time.
- Published
- 2022