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[Objective] The increasingly complex international situations and frequent trade frictions have significantly intensified the supply risk of global industrial chains. The trade pattern evolution identifying and risk propagation modeling of global wind power industrial chains would provide essential implications for increasing the resilience of industrial chains and securing energy supplies. [Methods] This study depicted the spatial-temporal characteristics of major wind power industrial chains during 2000-2021 based on complex network analysis, revealed the resilience of the industrial networks by network resilience assessment, and tracked the impacts of supply risks from different countries (regions) based on cascading failure modeling. [Results] (1) The overall scale of global wind power industrial chains continued to expand with trade connections between countries (regions) intensifying, and the complexity and efficiency of industrial networks increased significantly. (2) China as a major exporter played an increasingly important role in the global wind power industrial chains, establishing intense trade relations with numerous countries (regions). (3) Supply risks originating from China may generate profound impacts on the tower and generator trade networks, while supply risks originating from the United States and Germany may generate profound impacts on the blade and gearbox trade networks, respectively. [Conclusion] Optimizing industrial layout, collaborating with emerging markets, and strengthening technological innovation are thus of great significance for systematically preventing potential risks within wind power industry chains worldwide.

This paper provides a political economy analysis of the bilateral trade relations and patterns of exchange that existed between Iran and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1962 to 2021. The paper contributes to the growing literature on Iran–Africa relations by empirically delineating not just the changes, but also the continuities between Iran and its African trading partners before and after the Iranian Revolution. It also adds nuance to the broader scholarship on South–South cooperation by showing the disparity between the rhetoric of South–South solidarity and reciprocity between Iran and SSA, on one side, and their low and fluctuating trade volumes, on the other. These volumes resulted from historical inertia or path dependency and structural factors, including trade complementarities and geopolitical conditions, more than demographic, cultural, or religious realities. They were also shaped by the agency and decision-making of Iranian and African leaders and officials regarding the extent to economically engage with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows relative price competition based on comparative advantage leads to diversified production and complex trade patterns with complete specialization unlikely for many countries and goods. Focused on models with three and four countries and goods, the present analysis starts with the extreme countries in each relative price ranking trading those two goods. The terms of trade determine the directions of trade for middle countries in each ranking. The potential trade patterns prove realistic with multiple exports, nontraded goods, nontrading countries, separate trade groups, and two-way trade with exports and imports of the same good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the recovery and identification of oothecae of the oriental cockroach (Blatta orientalis L.) from deposits associated with an Early Romano-British bakery oven from Roman Londinium (now modern-day London). The ecology, behaviour and past archaeological history of this species are presented. The implications of finding this species for our understanding of the movement and importation of stored products and other materials by the Roman Army and citizenry is outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the driving force of modern economic development, the evolution of the global energy patterns during major emergencies deserves attention. This study aims to uncover changes in global energy patterns during the COVID-19 epicenter storm. The results reveal concentrated energy trade volume in a few flows, with high-income countries holding greater influence. Amid the epicenter storm, there was a contraction in global energy trade volume, and trading patterns underwent significant shifts: (1) the global natural gas trading center shifted from the Middle East to western Africa initially, then to the United States and Russia; (2) Brazil, a crucial crude oil exporter, saw a weakened position in global crude oil exports; and (3) in the coal trading network, Australia and Russia maintained their position as trading centers throughout the storm. Swift policy adaptation is crucial for resilience and stability amid evolving global energy patterns.

The negative consequences of financial crises require the attention of economic policymakers and decision making centers.Therefore, considering the importance of the subject, the present study has investigated the effects of global financial crises on the trade patterns of Iran and its partners during the years 1995-2018.The variables have been estimated in the framework of the gravity model using the pseudo poisson maximum likelihood method.The findings show that the Asian financial crisis (1997) has an effective role in reducing the volume of trade but this result is the opposite in relation to the American financial crisis (2007)­; Because instead of a threat, it has become an opportunity for the movement of business flows. In this situation, it seems that the difference in the intensity and type of impact of financial crises on trade patterns can be affected by the nature of the crisis or the region where the crisis started.1.IntroductionCountries consistently grapple with economic and financial turmoil, which at specific junctures, can escalate into full-fledged financial crises (Moshiri & Nadali, 2013). These crises manifest as conditions where a significant number of financial institutions suddenly experience a substantial decline in the nominal value of their financial assets (Bonis et al., 1998). Given the historical recurrence of financial crises worldwide, it becomes imperative for economic policymakers and decision making centers to address and mitigate their adverse effects. This necessity stems from the detrimental impact that financial crises have on the real sector of economy (Kord-Zangeneh et al., 2019). Compounding the issue is the transnational nature of these crises, as they may transfer from one country to another. The transmission of financial crises occurs through various channels, including trade flows, foreign direct investment, commercial loans and financial aid (Massa & Velde, 2008). Among these channels, trade relations emerge as crucial communication pathways on a global scale, playing a pivotal role in influencing the performance of diverse economic sectors affected by financial crises.Hence, understanding international trade patterns holds greater significance than any other phenomenon in the economy, particularly in times of crisis. Furthermore, drawing insights from the experiences of other nations aids in understanding how trade flows unfold in countries that have recently weathered financial crises (Santana-Gallego & Perez-Rodriguez, 2018). Financial crises impact on the trade in two ways. First, they exert a negative influence on trade by disrupting the trade balance. Then crises transfer from one affected country to another through interconnected trade links. Consequently, the extent to which different countries engage with the global economy dictates the degree to which they are affected by the repercussions of a financial crisis.As countries are interlinked through trade flows, in the event of a shock impacting one economy, it has the potential to extend to the entire network, indirectly influencing trade relations between countries. This connection is particularly crucial because a financial crisis can transfer to other economic sectors through fluctuations in exchange rate variables, exports, imports and changes in international commodity prices (Brave & Butters, 2011).2.Materials and MethodsThe gravity model, proposed by Tinbergen (1966) to explain bilateral trade flows, is distinctive for its emphasis on reflecting international relations. In the field of international trade studies, traditional challenges arise in estimating the gravity model. Specifically, when employing the ordinary least squares method for estimating the gravity model, there is a tendency to exclude zero statistical observations. This limitation stems from the conventional method’s inability to compute a logarithm for the trade variable when trade between countries is not realized in certain years. Consequently, the omission of statistical observations in such instances renders it impossible to generate a zero logarithm. Moreover, when the model is estimated using the non-linear least squares method, there is a potential issue with the heterogeneity of variance, which can compromise the accuracy of interpretations based on the coefficients. Recognizing this challenge, Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006) introduced the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method to address the estimation of such models. A noteworthy aspect of this method is the non-elimination of zero statistical observations, ensuring unbiased and reliable estimation of variable coefficients. This is achieved by assigning equal weight to all statistical observations. Therefore, the method not only increases the number of statistical observations but also enhances the efficiency of the estimator.The main estimation approach revolves around the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, as explained by theoretical foundations and existing literature that detail the connection between financial crises and international trade. This approach draws inspiration from the works of Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006) as well as of Santana-Gallego and Perez-Rodriguez (2018). In this respect, the research model was delineated following the model proposed by Glick and Rose (2016), as shown in Equation (1). (1) The present study aimed to investigate trade patterns by examining the volume of bilateral trade (total export and import) between Iran and its twenty trading partners. The analysis used annual data spanning from 1995 to 2018. The study developed the proposed model, leveraging the flexibility inherent in the gravity model as well as incorporating variables such as the logarithm of the Linder economic similarity index, the logarithm of Iran’s and its trading partners’ populations, the logarithm of the nominal exchange rate, the logarithm of geographical distance and financial crises. This comprehensive formulation is defined as the generalized gravity model expressed in Equation (2). (2) 3.Results and DiscussionDiagnostic tests are imperative before model estimation. Initially, the Chow test was employed to determine the suitable regression method. Subsequently, the Hausman test was used to decide between the methods of fixed effects or random effects.Table 1. Diagnostic testsResultProbabilityStatisticsTestNull Hypothesis Rejected0.00023.04ChowNull Hypothesis Rejected0.000437.51HausmanSource: Research findings The results outlined in Table 1 demonstrate the rejection of the null hypothesis in both the Chow and Hausman tests. To control the multilateral resistance to trade, the study estimated the coefficients of the variables by considering the country’s annual fixed effects. The process was conducted within the framework of the gravity model, employing the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method (see below).Table 2. Model estimation resultsProbabilityStandard deviationCoefficientsVariables***0.0000.000-0.179CRIijt 1997***0.0000.0000.135CRIijt 2007***0.0000.184-32.358LnLINijt***0.0005.9153.005LnPOPit***0.0000.1000.111LnPOPjt***0.0000.0000.017LnERijt***0.0000.000-0.400LnDISijt***0.0000.113-52.430CNumber of obs = 240R-Squared = 0.81Pseudo Log Likelihood = -171.405*** Indicates the significance of the coefficients at the level of 1 percent.Source: Research findingsThe results provided in Table 2 reveal that global financial crises exerted a significant impact on the trade volume, yet the nature of their influence on trade patterns varies. Specifically, the findings indicated that the Asian financial crisis of 1997 played a substantial role in reducing the trade volume, while the outcome was opposite in the case of the American financial crisis of 2007.The negative coefficient in the logarithm of the Linder economic similarity index indicates that the volume of trade increases as the per capita income difference decreases. Consequently, the countries with similar tastes or demand structures become the optimal markets for a country’s export goods.Conversely, the positive coefficient in the logarithm of the population of Iran and its trading partners signifies that an increase in population correlated with a rise in the trade volume. This association can be attributed to the utilization of a larger labor force, inherent in higher population figures, which positively affects the production of goods. The outcome is manifested in an increase in the trade volume.The positive coefficient in the logarithm of the nominal exchange rate indicates an increase in trade volume corresponding to an increase in this variable. This pattern emerges because foreign goods become more expensive compared to domestic ones. Consequently, both domestic and foreign consumers are inclined to substitute Iranian goods with foreign alternatives. Conversely, the negative coefficient in the logarithm of geographical distance reveals that this variable exerted a negative impact on the trade volume. In other words, the greater the distance between countries, the higher the transportation costs. As a result, distant markets become less attractive for establishing trade relations.4.ConclusionThe present study examined the effects of global financial crises on the trade patterns of Iran in relation its key trading partners. In this respect, the research used annual data from the studied countries during 1995–2018, then the coefficients of the variables were estimated within the framework of the gravity model as well as the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method.According to the findings, the examined countries experience the repercussions of financial crises, yet the magnitude and nature of their impact differ based on the specific characteristics of each crisis. In this context, the Asian financial crisis of 1997 played a significant role in reducing the trade volume in the countries under consideration, while the outcome was opposite in the case of the American financial crisis of 2007. Moreover, the positive coefficients of the variables specifically the logarithm of the Linder economic similarity index, the logarithm of the nominal exchange rate and the logarithm of the population of Iran and its trading partners underscore their favorable impact on the trade volume aligned with the increased trade flows in the countries. Given the negative coefficient in the logarithm of geographical distance, it is anticipated that trade with countries farther away from Iran will be comparatively lower. In fact, the majority of Iran’s trade relations are established with neighboring countries. In light of these findings, it is recommended to implement trade policies that support export-oriented domestic production in the country. This approach, in addition to generating foreign currency income, can serve as a mitigating factor against the adverse effects of financial crises.

Critical nonferrous metals are of strategic importance to the development of today's manufacturing industry, especially under sustainable circumstances. To explore the trade patterns of the critical nonferrous metal resource industry chain and analyze its competitive advantages at different stages, this paper takes cobalt as an example, constructs the directional weighted network of the trade of typical products at each stage of the global cobalt industry chain from 2002 to 2020 based on the trade data of cobalt, cobalt oxide, electrolytic cobalt and cobalt acid lithium, uses trade and market concentration index to analyze the evolution pattern of overall global cobalt products trade, analyzes the cobalt competitive situation of China among typical trading parties. The results show: (1) Developed countries or regions attach more importance to the downstream of the cobalt industry chain. (2) The overall trade volume of cobalt has been gradually increasing, cobalt oxide and lithium cobalt oxide still occupied the majority share of trade among countries. (3) China is more dependent on cobalt ore and cobalt oxide from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and may face a shortage of cobalt and cobalt oxide; the competitiveness of China's cobalt industry is second only to the United States. (4) The United States, Germany, and other countries pay more attention to the ability of betweenness centrality and the distribution of export structure. Accordingly, it is proposed to pay attention to the diversification of the supply side, build a global cobalt product trade risk assessment system, accelerate the up-stream and downstream extension of the industry chain and take the lead in relieving the investment pressure of enterprises, to adapt to the internal and external environment evolution, to enhance the control of the critical nonferrous metals industry chain, both in the international and domestic market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the role of international intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) former Soviet Union republics participated after its disintegration on their international trade patterns, particularly the consumer animosity and nostalgia dimensions toward each other and major countries in the IGOs. The results suggest that the republics were faced with a choice between EU/Western institutions and those that are led by Russia. Analysis shows that their international trade patterns reflect these alliances in the international institutions network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest products trade has a critical role to play in both global economic development and environmental protection. Based on the trade data of global forest products, raw forest products, and processed forest products from 2000 to 2020, this paper constructed a trade network and analyzed its pattern by using indicators such as density, average distance, out-strength, and in-strength. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the global trade network of forest products has been increasingly connected. Compared with the trade of raw material forest products, the trade network of processed forest products is more closely connected and its transport efficiency is higher. Countries with high GDP such as USA, China, and Germany are leading trading countries in forest products. Countries with abundant forest resources are the major exporters of raw forest products, while labor- and capital-abundant countries are major exporters of processed forest products. Countries with abundant labor and capital and high GDP are the main importers of raw forest products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Murid rodents are considered globally important invasive species, yet they are still sold in the pet trade. Little is known about the genetic diversity of traded rodents, and many species are incorrectly identified in the pet trade. We used mitochondrial gene regions to assess the taxonomy and genetic diversity of 149 rodents sold in pet shops across eight South African provinces. We identified a total of 112 specimens as Mus musculus, while 31 were Rattus norvegicus, and six were identified as the southern African endemic, southern multimammate mouse Mastomys coucha. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the three species were monophyletic. Mus musculus and R. norvegicus showed higher levels of genetic diversity, with 19 unique mtDNA haplotypes recovered for M. musculus and eight haplotypes for R. norvegicus. KwaZulu‐Natal, Western Cape and Gauteng Provinces had the most unique haplotypes than other provinces. Our findings showed that non‐native species are widely distributed in the South African pet trade industry, while M. coucha was not widely traded, although recorded in three provinces. This suggests that most provinces comply with the trade regulations on native species, but the threat of invasive rodents to South Africa's unique biodiversity is highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates how industries with different patterns of firm heterogeneity distribute across countries by developing a three-sector general-equilibrium model. We show that the larger country is more specialized in the industry with heterogeneous (homogeneous) firms when trade costs are low (high) and that an increase in the inter-industry difference in firm heterogeneity fosters the larger country's degree of specialization in the industry with heterogeneous firms. We also disclose the wage inequality and trade patterns across countries and show how they respond to trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how trade patterns – institutionally intensive exports (IIX) – affect institutional quality in East Asia compared to the rest of the world, and whether the effect changed due to the Asian financial crisis. To examine this, we use panel data of 117 countries for the period 1988–2007. Our fixed effect model estimation reveals that the effect of IIX on institutional quality is negative and significant for East Asia, while the effect is insignificant for the rest of the world. The negative effect in East Asia is more pronounced for the five East Asian countries that were strongly affected by the crisis – South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand – than for other East Asian countries. Furthermore, our results reveal that the negative effect for East Asia does not change significantly after the crisis, both in the short and long term, and that improvement in institutional quality after the crisis is not different from that of the rest of the world. This suggests that the crisis had no significant impact on East Asia's institutional quality or on the effects of IIX on institutional quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade is one of the key spheres of economic policy. It is crucial for a country to understand the dynamics of its export markets to create a coherent strategy to improve its position in global markets. Research in this field is particularly interesting for both economists and policy makers. However, due to a lack of data, most of the well-established literature is focused on the national level. Therefore, there is little evidence on the influence of local characteristics on export markets. This research aims to evaluate the influence of regional factors on the competitiveness of firms in international markets, focussing on the importance of agglomeration economies and location, among other local factors. To identify this influence, this paper studies the case of Brazil. This country offers rich disaggregated information that allows this type of research and displays enormous differences across rural and urban areas. Given these differences, the assumption of homogeneous effects is too restrictive. Therefore, to study the patterns across different territories around the country, Geographically Weighted Generalized Linear Model (GWGLM) method is applied. The results indicate an interaction between location and the influence of several local characteristics such as human capital, the degree of development and the local economic structure. This relationship creates virtuous circles in a few locations where urban agglomerations create a suitable environment for firms, while opposite patterns appear in other locations. JEL codes: F14, R11 and R12 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global value chains (GVCs) not only reshape trade patterns but also influence trade-related emissions worldwide. This paper estimates China's aggregate and industrial embodied CO2 emissions in international fragmentation production networks in 2000–2014, and further adopts the chaining structural decomposition analysis (SDA) incorporating the GVCs concept to identify the effect of production fragmentation on embodied CO2 emissions. In addition, heterogeneities in different trade patterns (i.e. pure domestic, traditional, simple, and complex trades) are also examined. The chaining SDA results show that the increase in GVCs leads to China's embodied CO2 emissions growth, in which the relocation effect of final products is greater than that of intermediate products. Moreover, China's embodied CO2 emissions are mainly induced by pure domestic demand, with trade-related activities accounting for less than 30%. Furthermore, the effect of traditional final demand trade activity is outstripping that of those rising from the simple and complex GVCs activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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As the driving force of modern economic development, the evolution of the global energy patterns during major emergencies deserves attention. This study aims to uncover changes in global energy patterns during the COVID-19 epicenter storm. The results reveal concentrated energy trade volume in a few flows, with high-income countries holding greater influence. Amid the epicenter storm, there was a contraction in global energy trade volume, and trading patterns underwent significant shifts: (1) the global natural gas trading center shifted from the Middle East to western Africa initially, then to the United States and Russia; (2) Brazil, a crucial crude oil exporter, saw a weakened position in global crude oil exports; and (3) in the coal trading network, Australia and Russia maintained their position as trading centers throughout the storm. Swift policy adaptation is crucial for resilience and stability amid evolving global energy patterns. • We focused on the energy trade patterns during the COVID-19 epicenter storm. • This study uses complex network analysis and monthly energy trade data. • Global trade volume of energy experienced a contraction during the epicenter storm. • Natural gas trading centers shifted from the Middle East to western Africa and then turned to the United States and Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspired by Brexit, the paper explores the effects of splitting an integration area or 'Union' on trade patterns and the spatial distribution of industry. A linear three-region New Economic Geography (NEG) model is developed and two possible situations before separation are considered: agglomeration and dispersion. By analogy with the Brexit options, soft and hard separation scenarios are considered. Firms in the leaving region may move to the larger Union market, even on the periphery, relocation substituting trade; or firms in the Union may move in the more isolated leaving region, escaping from competition. The paper also analyses deeper Union integration following separation. Instances of multistability and complex dynamics are found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a linear New Economic Geography model with three regions, one remote region and two regions that entertain a trade agreement with low bilateral trade costs. Only one of these two integrated regions has the outside option to conclude an additional trade agreement with the remote region and to obtain a hub position. We show that the new trade agreement has a substantial impact on industry location and trade patterns and that the effects strongly depend upon level of integration between the initial two regions. It is not always the region with the outside option that profits from using it. Finally, we also show that higher firm mobility may lead to complex dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic geographers correctly note that regional variations in economic activity and population agglomeration are always the result of self-reinforcing processes of resource production, accumulation, exchange, and innovation. This article proposes that essentially similar forces account for the emergence of the world’s earliest cities in the alluvial lowlands of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers (Southern Mesopotamia), sometime during the second half of the fourth millennium BC.That emergence of early cities in the southern Mesopotamian alluvium must be understood in terms of the unique ecological conditions that existed across the region during the fourth millennium, and the enduring geographical framework of the area, which allowed for the efficient movement of commodities via water transport and facilitated interaction between diverse social units alongside natural and artificial river channels. These conditions promoted evolving long-term trade patterns that, inadvertently, differentially favored the development of polities in the southern Mesopotamian alluvium over contemporary societies in neighboring regions.More specifically, my contention is that by the final quarter of the fourth millennium the social and economic multiplier effects of trade patterns that had been in place for centuries – if not millennia – had brought about substantial increases in population agglomeration throughout the southern alluvial lowlands. Concurrent with these increases, and partly as a result of them, important socio-economic innovations started to appear in the increasingly urbanized polities of southern Mesopotamia that were unachievable in other areas of the Ancient Near East where urban grids of comparable scale and complexity did not exist at the time. Most salient among these innovations were (1) new forms of labor organization delivering economies of scale in the production of subsistence and industrial commodities to southern societies, and (2) the creation of new forms of record keeping in southern cities that were much more capable of conveying information across time and space than the simpler reckoning systems used by contemporary polities elsewhere. These innovations furnished southern Mesopotamian polities of the fourth millennium with what turned out to be their most important competitive advantage over neighboring societies. More than any other factor, they help explain why complex regionally organized city-states emerged earlier in southern Iraq than elsewhere in the Near East, or the world.

Drawing upon modern economic theorists, Guillermo Algaze emphasizes continuous, interlocking, self-reinforcing processes of growth and external trade as keys to "takeoff" toward southern Mesopotamia's regional leadership in the fourth millennium B.C. But the search for historical causality, always complex, would better avoid supposed universals of individual motivation as determinate roots of behavior everywhere and concentrate in the first instance on fuller consideration of the specific context and time. Without denying a role for Algaze's factors, I suggest that ever-present risks of subsistence variability were probably more decisive in encouraging social stratification and a higher degree of regimentation within locally contending city-states there. Enhanced military effectiveness then surely played a part, alongside trade and possibly overshadowing it, in ensuing regional dominance.

The article examines patterns in international digital trade flows through data on US digital service exports and international digital trade barriers. The article identifies a comprehensive set of digital trade barriers cited in the literature and through congressional submissions by technology companies and their industry associations. The article constructs a unique matrix of countries and barriers, which it then utilizes to model differences in US digital export receipts between countries with digital trade barriers and those without. The results indicate a statistically significant difference in digital trade flows based on the presence of barriers--countries with barriers have lower digital trade volumes. The results also go one step further by providing estimates for each barrier type and by translating coefficients into actual volumes. This process suggests a potential loss of nearly $25 billion in US digital exports due to barriers. The report's model and trade barrier matrix provide a key foundation for future research in the area, particularly on the causal impacts of trade barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Four quadrants division for major countries involved in copper cycle is proposed. • A high-resolution map depicting the distribution of total copper resources. • Five countries account for approximately 60 % of total copper resources. • China has ascended to be the global epicenter of copper trade. • The future global copper supply and demand situation under six scenarios is discussed. This study characterizes the copper cycle, quantifying flows, stocks, and losses from 1960 to 2020, and explores global copper supply and demand under six scenarios until 2050. Results show substantial growth in copper production, consumption, and trade over six decades, with around 761 Tg of copper extracted, resulting in 483 Tg in-use stocks. Monte Carlo simulations indicate an 11.4 % uncertainty. These stocks, redistributed globally, form independent secondary resources for each country, with Chile, Peru and Australia holding dominant underground reserves, and China and the United States primarily having above-ground stocks. Targeted policies are needed to close the copper cycle due to current loss rates. Copper shortages are anticipated around 2040, further exacerbated by the development of low-carbon technologies and extended copper product lifespans, but mitigated by alternative technologies and increased recycling rates. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife trade can provide commercial incentives to conserve biodiversity but, if unsustainable, can also pose a threat. CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) aims to ensure international trade in CITES-listed species is sustainable, legal and traceable. However, large-scale temporal and spatial patterns in wildlife trade are poorly known. We address this by analysing the CITES Trade Database: >16 million shipment records for 28,282 species, from 1975 and 2014. Over this period, the volume of reported trade in CITES-listed wildlife quadrupled, from 25 million whole-organism equivalents per year to 100 million, and the ratio of wild- to captive-sourced trade in mammals, birds, reptiles, invertebrates and plants declined by an order of magnitude or more. Our findings start to reveal the scale of the legal wildlife trade, shifting trade routes and sources over time and we describe testable hypotheses for the causes of these changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade is the key element of globalisation and closer economic and political cooperation between countries. Regional integration is an important driver of closer trade ties among countries. In this context, the article focuses on analysing the factors, influencing the dynamics of trade patterns of the Baltic States. The research method used in the article is the gravity model of trade, which rests on the key assumption that trade between countries is defined by the size of the economies and the distance between the countries. The gravity equation estimates showed that the membership of the Baltic States in the EU had a positive effect on the export levels of the Baltic States to other EU members. On the other hand, the membership in the EU is not the main trade stimulating factor. The more important factor for the Baltic States’ exports is the former economic ties with Russia. An analysis also revealed that the Baltic States have many important trade partners with different levels of income. This finding does not support the Linder hypothesis which states that the main trading partners should have a rather similar level of income.

This paper builds a two-country, two-sector (manufacturing and agriculture), semi-endogenous growth model and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and the growth rate of per capita real consumption. Under free trade, if the home country produces both goods and the foreign country specializes in agriculture, then the per capita growth rates of the home country and foreign country are equalized. By contrast, if the home country specializes in manufacturing and the foreign country specializes in agriculture, then the per capita growth rate of the home country is higher than that of the foreign country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classic theories of comparative advantage point to factor productivity and factor abundance as determinants of specialization and trade. Likewise, geography and topography can determine trade patterns. Institutions, however, are increasingly seen as important sources of comparative advantage. A global drug prohibition regime implies that institutional quality matters more than traditional sources in the drug trade. This paper theoretically models trade patterns of illicit goods and confirms the role of institutions empirically with respect to the drug trade. In particular, illicit enterprises gain force in countries where resources are scarce, drug enforcement is uncertain, and institutions are weak in absolute terms and relative to neighboring countries. I propose several policy alternatives that emphasize economic opportunity for the poor and institutional quality that complement drug prohibition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a dynamic trade model with a stock of public infrastructure, which has a property of 'unpaid factor of production'. We show that a country with a smaller (larger) labor endowment tends to become an exporter of a good whose productivity is more (less) sensitive to the stock of public infrastructure. We also show that after the opening of trade, the labor-scarce country becomes unambiguously better off but the labor-abundant country may become worse off. Overall, these results contrasts with those obtained in the case of public intermediate goods with a 'creation of atmosphere' property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the present paper is to gauge the main trends in the evolution and structure of the EU trade in goods, mainly after 2004, starting from a quantitative analysis and comparing trends in the trade in goods with trends in the trade in services, where necessary. We focus on the trade of the EU-27 as a group, but we stress the differences and similarities between the old member states (EU- 15) and the new member states (NMS) as well. Structured in seven parts, the paper reveals several noteworthy conclusions. Firstly, the EU remains the world trade leader; nevertheless, its market shares have been diminishing in the recent years, both in the export and import flows, due to a complex of factors. Secondly, the NMS shares in the EU trade flows have been growing; yet, the NMS shares in the exports and imports of the EU-27 remain at a very low level. Besides, the normalized trade balance of the NSM, compared with that of the EU-15 underlines the different competitive advantages of the two groups. Thirdly, the trade deficit of the EU-27 continues to deepen (the extra-EU trade deficit tripled in 2004-2008); however, there are significant differences between the manufactures trade balance (with large surpluses) and the commodities trade balance (with a deficit that doubled between 2004 and 2008). Fourth, the paper points out that the extra-EU exports and the imports are dominated by the manufactures; however the share of manufactures in the import flows is much smaller than that in the export flows. Finally, the present analysis traces evidence of the major impact of the global financial and economic crisis on the EU trade flows and the first signs of recovery.

The author researched the foreign direct investment flows, patterns and effects in conditions of regional economic integration in Europe. The foreign direct investment presence results in two effects: first, increase in competition, and second, creation of forward and backward linkages between domestic firms and foreign affiliates. The benefits of foreign direct investment for their host countries take the form of various types of externalities or spillovers (of technology, knowledge, productivity). The potential spillover benefits could be realized if domestic firms have the capacity to absorb foreign technologies and skills.

This paper examines the effects of regional economic integration in Europe, especially the North-North and North-South integration patterns, and how the benefits and costs of integration are divided between countries. Outcomes depend on: comparative advantages, factor endowments, factor intensities, competitive advantages, FDI flows, transfers of technology, knowledge spillovers, economies of scale, transport costs, industry/GDP ratios, and agglomeration forces. The North-North integration between high income countries tends to lead to convergence of country incomes. Contrary, the South-South integration between low income countries causes divergence. Low income countries are likely to be better served by the North-South integration.

International trade is the key element of globalisation and closer economic and political cooperation between countries. Regional integration is an important driver of closer trade ties among countries. In this context, the article focuses on analysing the factors, influencing the dynamics of trade patterns of the Baltic States. The research method used in the article is the gravity model of trade, which rests on the key assumption that trade between countries is defined by the size of the economies and the distance between the countries. The gravity equation estimates showed that the membership of the Baltic States in the EU had a positive effect on the export levels of the Baltic States to other EU members. On the other hand, the membership in the EU is not the main trade stimulating factor. The more important factor for the Baltic States' exports is the former economic ties with Russia. An analysis also revealed that the Baltic States have many important trade partners with different levels of income. This finding does not support the Linder hypothesis which states that the main trading partners should have a rather similar level of income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen a substantial reduction in trade policy and other barriers inhibiting developing country participation in the world trade. Lower barriers have contributed to a dramatic shift in the pattern of developing country trade -away from dependence on commodity exports to much greater reliance on manufactures and services. In addition, exports to other developing countries have become much more important. These changes have profound implications for the role played by developing countries in the world economy and the trade system. Developing countries have become major players in the global economy. The outward-oriented strategies of many economies in emerging Asia have been reflected in high trade growth and a steady increase in their share in the world trade.

This paper builds a small-open-economy nonscale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On the other hand, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is large, the home country becomes a manufacturing country. Then the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on both the home country and the world population growth rates. Moreover, the home country is better off under free trade than under autarky in terms of per capita consumption growth irrespective of whether the population growth is positive or negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we empirically examine the relationship between bilateral trade patterns and international technology spillovers for a sample of 55 countries during 1995-2006. Technology spillovers are measured by using patent citation data taken from the United States Patent and Trademark Office. The main contribution of this paper is to provide new evidence that the size of technology spillovers significantly varies according to bilateral trade patterns. In particular, horizontal intra-industry trade is associated with larger technology spillovers than vertical intra-industry trade, and the size of technology spillovers is smallest when the trade pattern is inter-industry trade. Given the fact that trade between technologically advanced countries has a higher share of horizontal intra-industry trade than trade between other combinations of countries, our findings suggest that trade may enlarge, rather than narrow, the technology gap between technologically advanced and less-advanced countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of China's rise on Latin-AAmerican countries. We review in this paper the expansion of economic relations between China and Latin America Countries (LAC) in the last decade. The large process of Chinese urbanization was the main driver for LAC commodity exports and China became the largest market for export and large supplier of manufactures for many LAC and its contribution for investment and credit has enlarged as well. In this process of restructuring of international division of labor we considered two different effects, a "demand effect" and a "structure effect" and investigated how complementarity and competitive pressures affected trade within region and in LAC according to their different patterns and productive structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]