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Background: Conventional radiographs of hands and feet are used to depict structural damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This is also commonly done in clinical practice in symptomatic patients at risk for RA (clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA)), but its rationale is unclear. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of radiographic erosive disease in patients with CSA and its progression over time., Methods: Patients with symptomatic arthralgia of the Leiden CSA cohort were studied during 2-year follow-up or until development of inflammatory arthritis (IA). Erosive disease was defined according to the radiologist, or according to the RA-specific erosive definition in light of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) 2010 RA criteria. Serial radiographs were evaluated according to the Sharp van der Heijde Scoring method (SHS) and radiographic erosive progression was determined. Additionally, it was evaluated if baseline erosive disease associated with IA development. Analyses were stratified for anticitrullinated protein antibody status., Results: 1497 radiographs of hands and feet of 749 patients with CSA were studied. Median SHS-erosion score at baseline was 0 (IQR 0-1). RA-specific erosive disease was present in 1.7% according to the radiologist, and 2.5% according to the ACR/EULAR criteria. No patients with CSA progressed ≥5 SHS-erosion points during follow-up. Erosive disease at CSA onset was not associated with IA development (HR 0.98 (95% CI 0.40 to 2.44))., Conclusions: At CSA onset, radiographic erosive disease is rare. In addition, it is rarely progressive within the CSA phase and not predictive for IA development. Therefore, for clinical practice, routinely made radiographs of hands and feet (such as regularly done at RA diagnosis) can be omitted in the at-risk stage of arthralgia., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AvdH is an editorial board member for RMD open. Otherwise none., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Secondary prevention of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is generally considered potentially impactful because the entire RA population is believed to experience a symptomatic 'pre-RA' phase. We wondered whether this dogma is correct. Therefore we investigated an inception cohort of patients with newly diagnosed RA and studied among them patients who did and did not present with preceding arthralgia at risk for RA., Methods: Consecutively diagnosed patients with RA between 2012 and 2022 were studied (n=699). These patients had either directly presented with clinically apparent arthritis, or had first presented with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA). Clinical characteristics at symptom onset and RA diagnosis were compared. Whether certain characteristics frequently occurred together was studied using a K-means algorithm after dimension reduction with partial least squares discriminant analysis. To validate that groups differed in long-term outcomes, sustained disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug-free remission (SDFR) of the groups was studied during a median follow-up of 5.3 years., Results: Patients with RA who had first presented with CSA were younger, more often had a gradual symptom onset and were more often anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA)-positive. Studying characteristics at symptom onset and RA diagnosis revealed four patient clusters, of which two clusters included almost all patients with a preceding CSA phase. Patients in these two clusters (55% of RA population) were younger, had a gradual symptom onset, longer symptom duration and were more frequently ACPA-positive. Patients with RA in these clusters achieved SDFR less often (HR 0.51 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.68)) than the patients with RA in the two clusters where preceding CSA was infrequent/absent., Conclusion: These data suggest the notion that the entire RA population has an identifiable symptomatic risk stage should be refuted. This may impact on the scope of preventive interventions targeting the symptomatic risk phase., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Although joint swelling is traditionally interpreted as synovitis, recent imaging studies showed that there is also inflammation of tenosynovium and intermetatarsal bursae in the forefoot. We aimed to increase our understanding of differences and similarities regarding forefoot involvement between ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at diagnosis. Therefore, we (1) compared metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint counts, walking disabilities and inflamed tissues between ACPA groups and (2) studied associations of joint swelling/tenderness and walking disabilities with underlying inflamed tissues within ACPA groups., Methods: 171 ACPA-positive and 203 ACPA-negative consecutively diagnosed patients with RA had a physical joint examination (swollen joint count-66/tender joint count-68), filled a Health Assessment Questionnaire including the domain walking and underwent MRI of the MTP joints at diagnosis. Synovitis, tenosynovitis, osteitis and intermetatarsal bursitis (IMB) were assessed. Findings in age-matched healthy controls were applied to define abnormalities on MRI., Results: While ACPA-negative RA patients had more swollen joints (mean SJC 8 vs 6 in ACPA-positives, p=0.003), the number of swollen MTP joints was similar (mean 1 in both groups); walking disabilities were also equally common (49% vs 53%). In contrast, inflamed tissues were all more prevalent in ACPA-positive compared with ACPA-negative RA. Within ACPA-positive RA, IMB was associated independently with MTP-joint swelling (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 5.0) and tenderness (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.8 to 5.0). While in ACPA-negatives, synovitis was associated independently with MTP-joint swelling (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4 to 5.8) and tenderness (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3 to 4.8). Tenosynovitis contributed most to walking disabilities., Conclusions: Although the forefoot of ACPA-positives and ACPA-negatives share clinical similarities at diagnosis, there are differences in underlying inflamed tissues. This reinforces that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA are different entities., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Obesity conveys a risk for RA development, while paradoxically, associating with less radiographic progression after RA diagnosis. Using MRI we can study this surprising association in detail from MRI-detected synovitis and osteitis to MRI-detected erosive progression, which precedes radiographic progression. Previous research suggested obesity associates with less osteitis and synovitis. We therefore aimed to (i) validate the previously suggested association between BMI and MRI-detected osteitis/synovitis; (ii) study whether this is specific for ACPA-positive or ACPA-negative RA or also present in other arthritides; (iii) study whether MRI-detected osteitis associates with MRI-detected erosive progression; and (iv) study whether obesity associates with MRI-detected erosive progression., Methods: We studied 1029 early arthritis patients (454 RA, 575 other arthritides), consecutively included in Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic. At baseline patients underwent hand-and-foot MRI that were RAMRIS-scored, and 149 RA patients underwent follow-up MRIs. We studied associations between baseline BMI and MRI-detected osteitis/synovitis (using linear regression), and erosive progression (using Poisson mixed models)., Results: In RA, higher BMI associated with less osteitis at disease onset (β = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) but not with synovitis. Higher BMI associated with less osteitis in ACPA-positive RA (β = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.97), ACPA-negative RA (β = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95, 0.99) and other arthritides (β = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 0.99). Over 2 years, overweight and obesity associated with less MRI-detected erosive progression (P = 0.02 and 0.03, respectively). Osteitis also associated with erosive progression over 2 years (P < 0.001)., Conclusions: High BMI relates to less osteitis at disease onset, which is not confined to RA. Within RA, high BMI and less osteitis associated with less MRI-detected erosive progression. This suggests that the protective effect of obesity on radiographic progression is exerted via a path of less osteitis and subsequently fewer MRI-detected erosions., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Obese RA patients have higher disease activity scores (DAS). Previous research showed that obese RA patients have higher tender joint count (TJC) and VAS general health. However, it remains unclear whether DAS components measuring local and systemic inflammation (swollen joint count (SJC), CRP) are increased and if this is present in the total RA population or confined to an ACPA subgroup. As ACPA is suggested to enhance inflammatory responses, we hypothesized that the association of obesity with SJC and CRP is present especially in ACPA-positive RA. We therefore studied associations of obesity with courses of DAS components in ACPA subgroups., Methods: We studied 649 RA patients (291 ACPA-positive), included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic. Five-year courses of DAS44 and DAS44 components (SJC-44, TJC-53, CRP, VAS (0-100)) were compared between RA patients with normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9), and obesity (≥ 30.0), stratified for ACPA. Linear/Poisson mixed models with a knot at 4 months were used., Results: Obese RA patients had + 0.32 higher DAS compared to normal weight during the 5-year follow-up. In ACPA-positive RA, obese patients had + 0.43 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.64) higher DAS, whereas in ACPA-negative RA, this difference was smaller and not statistically significant: + 0.19 (95% CI: - 0.01, 0.38). In ACPA-positive RA, all DAS components were significantly higher in obese patients compared to normal weight: SJC + 60% (IRR1.60; 95% CI: 1.18, 2.16), CRP + 3.7 mg/L (95% CI:0.95, 6.53), TJC + 55% (IRR1.55; 95% CI:1.15, 2.10), and VAS + 9 (95% CI: 4.0, 14.2). ACPA-negative obese RA patients tended to have higher TJC (IRR1.22; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.55) and VAS (β4.3; 95% CI: - 0.4, 9.0), while SJC (IRR1.07; 95% CI:0.85, 1.33) and CRP (β0.24; 95% CI: - 1.29, 3.32) were unaffected., Conclusion: The association of obesity with a worse DAS course is mainly present in ACPA-positive RA; especially SJC and CRP levels remain higher in ACPA-positive RA patients with obesity but not ACPA-negative RA patients. This is the first demonstration that obesity influences the disease course of ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA differently., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Obesity is a known risk factor for developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, it is unclear whether obesity exerts its risk effect during the asymptomatic or the symptomatic clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) phase of risk. To improve understanding of the effect of obesity on RA development, we aimed to (1) compare body mass index (BMI) at CSA onset to BMI of the general population and (2) study within CSA patients if obesity increases the risk for progression to RA., Methods: 1107 symptomatic persons at risk for RA from four cohorts (CSA Leiden, CSA Rotterdam, SONAR and TREAT EARLIER placebo arm) were studied. For the first aim, baseline BMI was compared with age-matched/sex-matched BMI of the general population. Patients were stratified for anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) status. Regarding the second aim, the association between BMI and inflammatory arthritis (IA) development during 2 years was studied with Cox regression analysis within each cohort and via meta-analysis in all cohorts., Results: CSA patients of all cohorts were more often obese than the general population (respectively 21.9% vs 14.0%, 25.7% vs 14.5%, 26.7% vs 14.5% and 33.3% vs 14.9%, in CSA Leiden, CSA Rotterdam, SONAR, TREAT EARLIER placebo arm). Both ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative CSA patients had a higher frequency of obesity. Within CSA, obesity was not associated with IA development compared to normal weight (pooled effect in meta-analysis of four cohorts HR 1.01 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.08))., Conclusions: Obesity is not associated with RA development within CSA patients but BMI has already increased in CSA compared to the general population. Obesity, therefore, presumably exerts its risk effect at an early asymptomatic phase of RA development, rather than being associated with the disease processes that ultimately result in clinical arthritis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AvdH is an editorial board member for RMDopen. Otherwise none., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

The concept of a 'window of opportunity' in treating a disease assumes the existence of a time frame during which the trajectory of the disease can be effectively and permanently modified. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), optimal timing of this period is presumed to be during the phase before arthritis is clinically apparent and disease is diagnosed. Several proof-of-concept trials of treatment during the 'arthralgia' phase of RA have been completed in the past 4 years, with the underlying notion that temporary treatment at this stage could prevent the development of RA or induce a sustained reduction in the burden of disease. This Review summarizes the results of these trials and reflects on the outcomes in relation to the patients' perspectives. Overall, the majority of symptomatic at-risk individuals could benefit from a fixed period treatment, even if RA does not develop. Various factors must be taken into consideration when translating these findings into clinical practice. More evidence is needed to target the individuals at highest risk, and additional tools are needed to monitor treatment and guide decisions about whether treatment can be discontinued. Without these tools, there is a paradoxical risk of seemingly increasing the incidence of the disease and prolonging disease duration, which is the opposite of what the concept of intervening in the window of opportunity entails., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Objectives: Undifferentiated arthritis(UA) is clinically heterogeneous and differs in outcomes ranging from spontaneous resolution to RA-development. Therefore, we hypothesized that subgroups exist within UA and we aimed to identify homogeneous groups based on clinical features, and thereafter to relate these groups to the outcomes spontaneous resolution and RA-development. These outcomes can only be studied in UA-patients in which DMARD-treatment does not influence the natural disease course; these cohorts are scarce., Methods: We studied autoantibody-negative UA-patients (not fulfilling 1987/2010 RA-criteria, no alternate diagnosis), included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic between 1993 and 2006, when early DMARD-treatment in UA was infrequent. Latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups based on combinations of clinical features. Within these subgroups, test-characteristics were assessed for spontaneous resolution of arthritis and RA-development within 1 year., Results: 310 consecutive UA-patients were studied. Five classes were identified: location and number of swollen joints were most distinguishing. Classes were characterized by: 1) polyarthritis, often symmetric; 2) oligoarthritis, frequently with subacute onset; 3) wrist-monoarthritis, often with subacute onset, increased BMI and without morning stiffness; 4) small-joint monoarthritis, often without increased acute phase reactants, and 5) large-joint monoarthritis, often with subacute onset. Studying the classes in relation to the outcomes revealed that patients without spontaneous resolution (thus having persistent disease) were nearly absent in the classes characterized by monoarthritis (specificity >90%). Additionally, patients who developed RA were infrequent in monoarthritis classes (sensitivity <7%)., Conclusion: Using a data-driven unsupervised approach, five subgroups within contemporary UA were identified. These have differences in the natural course of disease., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The natural trajectory of clinical arthritis progression at the tissue level remains elusive. We hypothesized that subclinical inflammation in different joint tissues (synovitis, tenosynovitis, osteitis) increases in a distinct temporal order in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) who develop rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and subsides in a different sequence when CSA spontaneously resolves., Methods: We studied 185 serial magnetic resonance images (MRIs) from CSA patients with subclinical joint inflammation from the placebo arm of the TREAT EARLIER trial: 52 MRIs from 21 RA progressors (MRIs conducted at 1 year before, at 4 months before, and upon RA development), and 133 MRIs from 35 patients with spontaneous resolution of pain (MRIs conducted at baseline and at 4, 12, and 24 months). MRIs were scored for osteitis, synovitis, and tenosynovitis. We used cross-lagged models to evaluate 2 types of time patterns between pairs of inflamed tissues: a simultaneous pattern (coinciding changes) and a subsequent pattern (inflammatory changes in 1 tissue preceding changes in another tissue)., Results: In patients who developed RA, synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis increased simultaneously. Increasing osteitis occurred in the final 4 months before RA diagnosis, following incremental tenosynovitis and synovitis changes during the 1 year to 4 months before diagnosis (P < 0.01). In anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative patients who progressed to RA, osteitis increased just before RA development. In patients with pain resolution, simultaneous decreases in synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis occurred, with tenosynovitis decreasing in the first 4 months after CSA onset preceding decreasing synovitis and osteitis during 4-12 months (P = 0.02 and P < 0.01)., Conclusion: We identified natural sequences of subclinical inflammation in different joint tissues, which deepens our understanding of clinical arthritis and RA development. During RA progression, increasing osteitis followed previous increases in tenosynovitis and synovitis. During pain resolution, tenosynovitis decreased first, followed by decreasing synovitis and osteitis., (© 2023 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.)

Background: Inflammation around the tendons of interosseous muscles of the hand (interosseous tendon inflammation) was recently observed with MRI for the first time in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and in at-risk individuals with detectable anti-citrullinated protein antibodies, generating the hypothesis that interosseous tendon inflammation precedes clinical arthritis. To better understand the role of interosseous tendon inflammation during the development of rheumatoid arthritis, we studied the frequency of interosseous tendon inflammation in healthy individuals and in those with arthralgia that was suspected of progressing to rheumatoid arthritis (ie, clinically suspect arthralgia) and the association of interosseous tendon inflammation with other symptoms of inflamed joint tissues and with clinical arthritis development., Methods: Adult (age ≥18 years) patients who presented with clinically suspect arthralgia and symptom-free (control) individuals underwent contrast-enhanced hand MRI. MRIs were evaluated for interosseous tendon inflammation on the radial and ulnar sides of the second to fifth metacarpophalangeal joints, and for synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis using the rheumatoid arthritis MRI scoring system. Patients with clinically suspect arthralgia were followed up for clinical arthritis development. The presence of local tenosynovium was examined using immunohistochemistry for anti-CD55 and anti-CD68 on tissue from the hands of three embalmed bodies donated for scientific research. The primary outcome for the cross-sectional part of the study was the presence of interosseous tendon inflammation on MRI. The primary outcome for the longitudinal part of the study was development of clinical arthritis., Findings: Between April 3, 2012, and May 20, 2020, 667 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (mean age 44 years [SD 13], 504 [76%] were women and 163 [24%] were men) underwent contrast-enhanced hand MRI. Between Nov 1, 2013, and Nov 30, 2014, 193 symptom-free controls were recruited (mean age 50 years [SD 16], 136 [70%] were women and 57 [30%] were men). Two (1%) of 193 symptom-free controls had interosseous tendon inflammation. Immunohistochemistry of cadaveric hand tissues showed no tenosynovium surrounding interosseous tendons. At inclusion, 67 (10%) of 667 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia had interosseous tendon inflammation (p<0·0001 vs symptom-free controls). Interosseous tendon inflammation occurred more frequently if synovitis (odds ratio [OR] 2·2 [95% CI 1·2-4·2]), or tenosynovitis (OR 9·7 [5·5-17·0]), was present at metacarpophalangeal joints. A three-dimensional MRI reconstruction suggested confluency of interosseous tendon inflammation with metacarpophalangeal-flexor-tenosynovitis. 91 (16%) of 558 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia developed clinical arthritis during follow-up (median total follow-up 25·3 months [95% CI 25·1-25·5]). Patients with clinically suspect arthralgia with interosseous tendon inflammation had a higher risk of developing clinical arthritis (hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [2·8-7·2]), which was attenuated but still significant after adjusting for concomitant synovitis, tenosynovitis, or osteitis (HR 1·7 [1·02-2·8])., Interpretation: Interosseous tendon inflammation is almost absent in symptom-free individuals but occurs in people with clinically suspect arthralgia, in whom it correlates with symptoms and is associated with the development of clinical arthritis. The absence of local tenosynovium suggests that interosseous tendon inflammation arises from expanding local subclinical inflammation in the pre-arthritis phase of rheumatoid arthritis., Funding: European Research Council and the Dutch Arthritis Society., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a heterogeneous disease, as evidenced by the differences in long-term outcomes. This applies especially to anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA)-negative RA, where a proportion achieves sustained DMARD-free remission (SDFR; sustained absence of synovitis after DMARD cessation). Differentiation of RA patients who will achieve SDFR can guide personalized treatment/tapering strategies. Although this subgroup remains scarcely discerned, previous research demonstrated that these RA patients are characterized by an early clinical response (DAS remission after 4 months) after DMARD start. We studied whether, in addition to this clinical response, a specific biomarker response can further distinguish the subgroup of RA patients most likely to achieve SDFR., Methods: In 266 RA patients, levels of 12 biomarkers (SAA/CRP/MMP-1/MMP-3/resistin/leptin/IL-6/TNF-R1/YKL-40/EGF/VEGF/VCAM-1), in the first 2 years after diagnosis, were studied in relation to SDFR, stratified for ACPA status. Subsequently, biomarkers associated with SDFR development were combined with early DAS remission to study its additional value in defining subgroups. Since most biomarker levels are not routinely measured in clinical practice, we explored how this subgroup can be clinically recognized., Results: ACPA-negative RA patients achieving SDFR were characterized by high baseline levels and stronger decline in MMP-1/MMP-3/SAA/CRP after DMARD-start, respectively 1.30×/1.44×/2.12×/2.24× stronger. This effect was absent in ACPA-positive RA. In ACPA-negative RA, a strong biomarker decline is associated with early DAS remission. The combination of both declines (clinical, biomarker) was present in a subgroup of ACPA-negative RA patients achieving SDFR. This subgroup can be clinically recognized by the combination of high baseline CRP levels (≥ 3 times ULN), and early DAS remission (DAS 4 months < 1.6). This latter was replicated in independent ACPA-negative RA patients., Conclusions: ACPA-negative RA patients with early DAS remission and a strong biomarker response (or baseline CRP levels ≥ 3× ULN) are most likely to achieve SDFR later on. This could guide personalized decisions on DMARD tapering/cessation in ACPA-negative RA., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Healthcare professionals other than rheumatologists experience difficulties in detecting early inflammatory arthritis (IA) by joint examination. Self-reported symptoms are increasingly considered as helpful and could be incorporated in online tools to assist healthcare professionals, but first their discriminative ability must be assessed. As part of this effort, we evaluated whether inquiring about functional impairments could aid early IA identification., Design: Cross-sectional derivation and validation study., Setting: Data from two Early Arthritis Recognition Clinics (EARC) in the Netherlands were studied, which are easy access outpatient rheumatology clinics intermediary between primary and secondary care for patients in whom general practitioners suspect but are unsure about IA presence., Participants: Between 2010 and 2014, 997 patients consecutively visited the Leiden-EARC (derivation cohort). Patients consecutively visiting the Groningen EARC (2010-2014, n=506) and Leiden-EARC (2015-2018, n=557) served as validation cohorts., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Physical functioning was assessed with the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability-Index (HAQ); IA presence by physical joint examination by rheumatologists. HAQ questions were studied individually regarding discriminative ability for IA presence. For the best discriminating question, ORs and positive predictive values (PPVs) for IA presence were determined., Results: IA was ascertained in 43% (derivation cohort), 53% and 35% (validation cohorts). In the derivation cohort, IA presence associated with higher mean HAQ scores (0.84 vs 0.73, p=0.003). One question on difficulties with dressing equalled discriminative ability of the total HAQ score. 'Difficulties with dressing' yielded ORs for IA presence of 1.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.4) in the derivation cohort; 2.0 (1.4 to 2.9) and 2.1 (1.5 to 3.1) in the validation cohorts. After adjustments for clinical characteristics these were 1.7 (1.3 to 2.3), 1.6 (1.1 to 2.5) and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.9). PPVs (probabilities of IA for positive answers) ranged 42%-60% and negative predictive values (probabilities of no IA for negative answers) ranged 57%-74%., Conclusions: Patient-reported difficulties with dressing in patients with suspected IA associated with actual IA presence. Although further validation is required, for example, in primary care, this simple question could be of help in future early IA detection tools for healthcare professionals with limited experience in joint examination., Competing Interests: Competing interests: EB as an employee of the UMCG received speaker fees and consulting fees from Roche in 2017 and 2018 which were paid to the UMCG (outside the submitted work). Otherwise non declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Arthralgia and MRI-detected subclinical inflammation can precede the development of clinically evident rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, part of the patients presenting with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) do not progress to RA. In these 'non-progressors', we aimed to study the frequencies of spontaneous improvement of arthralgia and its relation with the course of subclinical inflammation., Methods: Between April 2012 and April 2015, 241 patients were considered at risk for RA based on the clinical presentation and included in the CSA cohort. One hundred fifty-two patients with complete data on clinical follow-up did not develop clinical arthritis, of which 98 underwent serial 1.5T MRI scans (wrist, MCP2-5, and MTP1-5 joints) at baseline and after 2 years. MRI scans were scored for synovitis, tenosynovitis, and bone marrow oedema (summed: MRI inflammation score). MRI scores were compared to scores of symptom-free persons., Results: After a 2-year follow-up, 33% of the 'non-progressors' had complete resolution of symptoms; 67% had no symptom resolution and were diagnosed as persistent CSA (44%), osteoarthritis (10%), and tendinomuscular complaints (13%). With symptom-free controls as a reference, patients without resolution did not have increased MRI scores at any time point. However, patients achieving resolution of symptoms had increased MRI inflammation scores at baseline (4.0 vs. 2.6, p = 0.037), but not after 2 years (3.0 vs. 2.6; p = 0.57), and during follow-up, their MRI inflammation score decreased significantly (p = 0.036)., Conclusions: A subgroup of CSA patients that did not progress to RA had spontaneous improvement of symptoms and resolution of subclinical joint inflammation. This time relationship suggests that symptoms and inflammation were causally related in these patients. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying the resolution of inflammation.

Objectives: National and international guidelines recommend prompt referral of patients presenting with inflammatory arthritis (IA), but general practitioners (GPs) feel uncertain in their proficiency to detect synovitis through joint examination, the method of choice to identify IA. Our objective was to develop and validate a rule composed of clinical characteristics to assist GPs and other physicians in identifying IA when in doubt., Design: Split-sample derivation and validation study., Setting: The Leiden Early Arthritis Recognition Clinic (EA R C), a screening clinic for patients in whom GPs suspected but were unsure of the presence of IA., Participants: 1288 consecutive patients visiting the EA R C., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Associations of clinical characteristics with presence of IA were determined using logistic regression in 644 patients, while validating the results in the other 644 patients (split-sample validation). To facilitate application in clinical practice, a simplified rule (with scores ranging from 0 to 7.5) was derived and validated., Results: IA was identified by a rheumatologist in 41% of patients. In univariable analysis, male gender, age ≥60 years, symptom duration <6 weeks, morning stiffness >60 min, a low number of painful joints (1-3 joints), presence of patient-reported joint swelling and difficulty with making a fist were associated with IA in the derivation data set. Using multivariable analysis, a simplified rule consisting of these seven items was derived and validated, yielding an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.78) in the derivation data set. Validation yielded an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.75). Finally, the model was repeated to study predicted probabilities with a lower prevalence of inflammatory arthritis to simulate performance in primary care settings., Conclusions: Our rule, composed of clinical parameters, had reasonable discriminative ability for IA and could assist physicians in decision-making in patients with suspected IA, increasing appropriateness of healthcare utilisation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Subclinical joint inflammation in patients with arthralgia is predictive for progression to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, the time course of progression for bone marrow edema (osteitis), synovitis, and/or tenosynovitis is unsettled. This longitudinal study assessed the course of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected subclinical joint inflammation during progression to RA., Methods: Patients that progressed from clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) to RA underwent 1.5-T MRI of the metacarpophalangeal (MCP), wrist, and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints at presentation with arthralgia and at first identification of synovitis assessed through physical examination (n = 31). MRIs were evaluated for osteitis, synovitis, tenosynovitis, and erosions by two readers, blinded for clinical data and order in time. To estimate changes in MRI scores between the asymptomatic state and CSA onset, scores of MRI features at CSA baseline were compared with scores from age-matched symptom-free persons., Results: At presentation with CSA, synovitis and tenosynovitis scores were higher than scores from age-matched symptom-free persons (p = 0.004 and p = 0.001, respectively). Anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive arthralgia patients also had increased osteitis scores (p = 0.04). Median duration between presentation with arthralgia and RA development was 17 weeks. During progression to RA, synovitis and osteitis increased significantly (p = 0.001 and p = 0.036, respectively) in contrast to tenosynovitis and erosion scores. This pattern was similar in both ACPA subsets, although statistical significance was reached for synovitis and osteitis in ACPA-negative but not ACPA-positive RA., Conclusion: Increased tenosynovitis and synovitis scores at CSA onset and the increase in synovitis and osteitis during progression to RA suggest an 'outside-in' temporal relationship of arthritis development, in particular for ACPA-negative RA. For ACPA-positive RA, further studies are needed.

Introduction: Subclinical inflammation, detected by MRI, in patients with arthralgia is predictive for development of inflammatory arthritis (IA). However, within patients that develop IA, the course of inflammation at the joint level during this transition is unknown. This longitudinal study assessed progression of inflammation at the joint level., Methods: 350 joints (unilateral metacarpophalangeals (MCPs), wrist, metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints) of 35 patients presenting with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) that progressed to IA were studied at presentation with CSA and subsequently when clinical synovitis was first identified at joint examination (median time interval 17 weeks). At both time points, subclinical inflammation (bone marrow oedema, synovitis, tenosynovitis) was evaluated with MRI and joint examination was performed., Results: At presentation with CSA, 71 joints showed subclinical inflammation. During progression to IA, 20% of these joints had resolution of inflammation, 60% had persistent inflammation and 20% progressed to clinical synovitis. Of all joints that had developed clinical synovitis (n = 45), no prior subclinical inflammation was detected in 69%. Similar results were observed for anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative patients., Conclusions: This longitudinal study demonstrated moderate correlations between joints with subclinical inflammation and joints that developed clinical synovitis. These data imply that IA development is a more systemic rather than a locally outgrowing process., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Objectives: MRI is recommended in the diagnostic process of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to detect joint damage early. MRI-detected erosions are also present in symptom-free controls, especially at older age. It is unclear if RA-specific MRI-detected erosions can be distinguished from 'physiological' erosions in symptom-free individuals. This study compared MRI-detected erosions of patients with RA with healthy controls and with other arthritides., Methods: 589 newly presenting patients with early arthritis (238 RA, 351 other arthritides) and 193 symptom-free controls underwent contrast-enhanced 1.5T MRI of unilateral metacarpophalangeal and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints. Total erosion score (according to the Rheumatoid Arthritis MRI Scoring System), number, severity, location of erosions and simultaneous presence of MRI-detected inflammation (synovitis and/or bone marrow oedema) were compared; participants were categorised in three age groups (<40, 40-59, ≥60)., Results: Patients with RA had statistically significant higher total erosion scores than controls but scores of individual persons largely overlapped. Grade ≥2 erosions and MTP5 erosions were specific for RA (specificity 98%-100% and 90%-98% for different age groups). MTP1 erosions were only specific if aged <40 (specificity 98%) and erosions with inflammation if aged <60 (specificity 91%-100%). ≥1 of the mentioned erosion characteristics were present in 29% of patients with RA. Comparing patients with RA with other arthritides revealed that grade ≥2 erosions and MTP5 erosions remained specific for RA (specificity ≥89%) as well as MTP1 erosions if aged <40 (specificity 93%), in contrast to erosions combined with inflammation (specificity 49%-85%)., Conclusions: Total erosion scores of individual persons were largely overlapping. Erosion characteristics specific for RA were identified, but were infrequently present. Caution is needed not to overestimate the value of MRI erosions in the diagnostic process., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: The presence of autoantibodies is considered an important characteristic of rheumatoid arthritis (RA); therefore, both anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) and rheumatoid factor (RF) are included in the 2010 classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, a considerable number of RA patients lack both these autoantibodies. Recently, several novel autoantibodies have been identified but their value for the classification of RA patients is unclear. Therefore, we studied the value of novel autoantibodies using the presence of anticarbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies as an example for predicting RA development in patients with undifferentiated arthritis (UA)., Methods: There were 1352 UA patients included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (EAC) cohort according to the 1987 criteria. When the 2010 criteria were used, there were 838 UA patients. Of these, we evaluated whether they fulfilled the 1987 or 2010 criteria after 1 year, respectively. Logistic regression analyses were performed with RA as outcome and ACPA, RF, and anti-CarP antibodies as predictors. Analyses were repeated after stratification for ACPA and RF., Results: Thirty-three percent of the 1987-UA patients and 6% of the 2010-UA patients progressed to RA during the first year of follow-up. For the 1987-UA patients, anti-CarP antibodies were associated with progression to RA, an association which remained when a correction was made for the presence of ACPA and RF (odds ratio (OR) 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.4). After stratification for ACPA and RF, anti-CarP antibodies were associated with progression to RA only for ACPA- and RF-negative patients (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.7). For the 2010-UA patients, anti-CarP antibodies were associated with progression to RA; however, they were not when a correction was made for the presence of ACPA and RF (OR 0.8, 95% CI 0.3-2.1)., Conclusions: Our finding that anti-CarP antibodies have no additional value when RA is defined according to the 2010 criteria might be inherent to the composition of the 2010 criteria and therefore might also apply to other novel autoantibodies. Potentially it would be interesting to evaluate other, non-autoantibody biomarkers.

Objectives: Moderate alcohol consumption is protective against rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development and associated with lower levels of systemic inflammation in RA and in the general population. We therefore hypothesised that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with less severe local inflammation in joints in RA, detected by MRI. Since asymptomatic persons can have low-grade MRI-detected inflammation, we also hypothesised that alcohol consumption is associated with the extent of MRI inflammation in asymptomatic volunteers., Methods: 188 newly presenting patients with RA and 192 asymptomatic volunteers underwent a unilateral contrast-enhanced 1.5T MRI of metacarpophalangeal, wrist and metatarsophalangeal joints. The MRIs were scored on synovitis, bone marrow oedema and tenosynovitis; the sum of these yielded the MRI inflammation score. MRI data were evaluated in relation to current alcohol consumption, categorised as non-drinkers, consuming 1-7 drinks/week, 8-14 drinks/week and >14 drinks/week. Association between C reactive protein (CRP) level and alcohol was studied in 1070 newly presenting patients with RA., Results: Alcohol consumption was not associated with the severity of MRI-detected inflammation in hand and foot joints of patients with RA (P=0.55) and asymptomatic volunteers (P=0.33). A J-shaped curve was observed in the association between alcohol consumption and CRP level, with the lowest levels in patients consuming 1-7 drinks/week (P=0.037)., Conclusion: Despite the fact that moderate alcohol consumption has been shown protective against RA, and our data confirm a J-shaped association of alcohol consumption with CRP levels in RA, alcohol was not associated with the severity of joint inflammation. The present data suggest that the pathophysiological mechanism underlying the effect of alcohol consists of a systemic effect that might not involve the joints., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Early treatment is associated with improved outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), suggesting that a 'window of opportunity', in which the disease is most susceptible to disease-modifying treatment, exists. Autoantibodies and markers of systemic inflammation can be present long before clinical arthritis, and maturation of the immune response seems to coincide with the development of RA. The pre-arthritis phase associated with symptoms such as as joint pain without clinical arthritis (athralgia) is now hypothesized to fall within the aforementioned window of opportunity. Consequently, disease modulation in this phase might prevent the occurrence of clinically apparent arthritis, which would result in a persistent disease course if untreated. Several ongoing proof-of-concept trials are now testing this hypothesis. This Review highlights the importance of adequate risk prediction for the correct design, execution and interpretation of results of these prevention trials, as well as considerations when translating these findings into clinical practice. The patients' perspectives are discussed, and the accuracy with which RA development can be predicted in patients presenting with arthralgia is evaluated. Currently, the best starting position for preventive studies is proposed to be the inclusion of patients with an increased risk of RA, such as those identified as fulfilling the EULAR definition of 'arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA'.

Objectives: Recently a EULAR-taskforce defined arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA, in order to allow inclusion of homogeneous sets of arthralgia patients in clinical studies. This longitudinal study aimed (i) to validate this definition in arthralgia patients in whom rheumatologists felt that imminent RA was more likely than other arthralgias [clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA)], that is, the target population fulfilling the entry criterion, and (ii) to explore the performance in arthralgia patients who were referred to secondary care prior to rheumatological evaluation, hence ignoring the entry criterion., Methods: The definition was assessed in 241 Dutch patients identified with CSA by rheumatologists and 113 patients referred to the Umeå university hospital with recent-onset arthralgia in small joints. The external reference was arthritis development <2 years' follow-up., Results: CSA patients with a positive definition (⩾3/7 parameters present) had an increased risk for developing arthritis compared with definition-negative CSA patients (hazard ratio = 2.1, 95% CI: 0.9, 4.7). The sensitivity was 84% and the positive predictive value 30%. In arthralgia patients in whom the definition was applied before rheumatological evaluation, a positive definition was neither sensitive (10%) nor predictive (positive predictive value 3%)., Conclusion: The EULAR definition of arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA is sensitive when used to support the rheumatologist's opinion on imminent RA. This validation study shows that the definition, when used as designed, further homogenizes patients that rheumatologists consider at risk for RA. To arrive at a high specificity, the clinical definition needs to be combined with biomarkers., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Objectives: Autoantibody testing is helpful for predicting the risk of progression to clinical arthritis in subjects at risk. Previous longitudinal studies have mainly selected autoantibody-positive arthralgia patients, and consequently the predictive values of autoantibodies were evaluated relative to one another. This study assessed the risks for arthritis development of ACPA, RF and/or anti-carbamylated protein antibodies (anti-CarP) in arthralgia patients considered at risk for RA by rheumatologists, based on clinical characteristics (clinically suspect arthralgia, CSA)., Methods: The baseline ACPA, RF and anti-CarP autoantibody status of 241 patients, consecutively included in the CSA cohort, was studied for risk of developing clinical arthritis during a median follow-up of 103 (interquartile range: 81-114) weeks., Results: Univariable associations for arthritis development were observed for ACPA, RF and anti-CarP antibodies; hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 8.5 (4.7-15.5), 5.1 (2.8-9.3) and 3.9 (1.9-7.7), respectively. In multivariable analysis, only ACPA was independently associated (HR = 5.1; 2.0-13.2). Relative to autoantibody-negative CSA patients, ACPA-negative/RF-positive patients had HRs of 2.6 (1.04-6.6), ACPA-positive/RF-negative patients 8.0 (2.4-27.4) and ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients 10.5 (5.4-20.6). Positive predictive values for development of clinical arthritis within 2 years were: 38% for ACPA-negative/RF-positive, 50% for ACPA-positive/RF-negative and 67% for ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients. Higher ACPA levels were not significantly associated with increased progression to clinical arthritis, in contrast to higher RF levels. Autoantibody levels were stable during follow-up., Conclusion: ACPA conferred the highest risk for arthritis development and had an additive value to RF. However, >30% of ACPA-positive/RF-positive CSA patients did not develop arthritis during the 2-year follow-up. Thus, CSA and information on autoantibodies is insufficient for accurately identifying imminent autoantibody-positive RA., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Objective: Although anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have different aetiopathology, the clinical presentation at the time of diagnosis is similar. This study evaluated whether there are phenotypic differences in the symptomatic pre-RA phase., Methods: Patients with arthralgia included in the Leiden clinically suspect arthralgia cohort who developed arthritis during follow-up were studied (n=67). Symptoms at symptom onset, symptoms and signs at presentation with arthralgia and time to arthritis development were compared between ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients., Results: In ACPA-negative patients (n=37), the location of initial symptoms less often included the lower extremities (22% vs 50%, p=0.014). At presentation with arthralgia, ACPA-positive patients had a longer symptom duration (median 22 vs 14 weeks, p=0.005), less tender joints (mean 5 vs 9, p=0.007) and less difficulty making a fist (11% vs 43%, p=0.004). However, after presentation with arthralgia, ACPA-positive patients developed arthritis more quickly (median 6 vs 18 weeks, p=0.015). A partial least squares regression analysis showed clustering of ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients based on the above-mentioned clinical variables., Conclusion: This study is the first showing that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients have clinical differences in the symptomatic phase preceding clinical arthritis. This contributes to the notion that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA develop differently., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objectives: The use of hand and foot MRI in the diagnostic process of RA has been advocated. Recent studies showed that MRI is helpful in predicting progression from clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) to clinical arthritis, and from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to RA. Symptom-free persons can also show inflammation on MRI. This study aimed to evaluate if MRI findings in symptom-free volunteers are relevant when defining a positive MRI., Methods: Two hundred and twenty-five CSA patients and two hundred and one UA patients underwent MRI of MCP, wrist and MTP joints at baseline and were followed for 1 year on progression to arthritis and RA, respectively, as reported previously. MRI was considered positive if ⩾ 1 joint showed inflammation (called uncorrected definition), or if ⩾ 1 joint had inflammation that was present in < 5% of persons of the same age category at the same location (called 5% corrected definition). Test characteristics were compared for both definitions., Results: By using MRI data of symptom-free volunteers as reference, specificity of MRI-detected inflammation increased from 22 to 56% in CSA patients, and from 10 to 36% in UA patients. The sensitivity was not affected; it was 88 and 85% in CSA patients and 93 and 93% in UA patients. The accuracy also increased, from 32 to 60% in CSA patients and 22 to 44% in UA patients., Conclusion: The use of a reference population resulted in a substantial reduction of false-positive results, without influencing the sensitivity. Although common for other tests in medicine, this phenomenon is novel for MRI in the early detection of RA., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Objectives: To assess the diagnostic value of MRI for early RA. In some RA patients, a classifiable diagnosis cannot be made at first presentation; these patients present with unclassified arthritis (UA). The use of MRI for early diagnosis of RA is recommended, yet the evidence for its reliability is limited., Methods: MRI of hand and foot was performed in 589 early arthritis patients included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (229 presented with RA, 159 with other arthritides and 201 with UA). Symptom-free controls provided a reference for defining an abnormal MRI. In preliminary investigations, MRI of patients who presented with RA was compared with MRI of symptom-free controls and of patients with other arthritides. Thereafter, the value of MRI in early RA diagnosis was determined in UA patients using the 1-year follow-up on fulfilling the 1987 RA criteria and start of disease-modifying drugs as outcomes., Results: Preliminary investigations were promising. Of the UA patients, 14% developed RA and 37% started disease-modifying treatment. MRI-detected tenosynovitis was associated with RA development independent of other types of MRI-detected inflammation [odds ratio (OR) = 7.5, 95% CI: 2.4, 23] and also independent of age and other inflammatory measures (swollen joints, CRP) (OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 1.4, 12.9). Within UA patients, the negative predictive value of abnormal tenosynovitis was 95% (95% CI: 89%, 98%) and the positive predictive value 25% (95% CI: 17%, 35%). The performance was best in the subgroup of UA patients presenting with oligoarthritis (18% developed RA): the positive predictive value was 36% (95% CI: 23%, 52%), the negative predictive value was 98% (95% CI: 88%, 100%), the sensitivity was 93% (95% CI: 70%, 99%) and the specificity was 63% (95% CI: 51%, 74%)., Conclusion: MRI contributes to the identification of UA patients who will develop RA, mostly in UA patients presenting with oligoarthritis., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Introduction: A phase of arthralgia may precede the emergence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Although several studies have focused on biomarkers, the relevance of this phase for patients is less studied. It is unknown if patients already have functional limitations and if this is correlated to the extent of subclinical inflammation. Therefore, we assessed functional disability in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA), its association with MRI-detected subclinical inflammation and its course during progression to clinical arthritis., Methods: From April 2012 to March 2015, 241 patients had arthralgia for <1 year and were, based on clinical presentation, considered at risk for RA by their rheumatologists. At baseline, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores were determined and unilateral 1.5 T MRI of metacarpophalangeal, wrist and metatarsophalangeal joints were made. Presence of MRI-detected subclinical inflammation was assessed by summing synovitis, tenosynovitis and bone marrow oedema scores (range 0-189). Patients were followed on arthritis development and HAQ scores were repeated when clinical arthritis had developed., Results: The median HAQ score at presentation with CSA was 0.50. Higher MRI-inflammation scores were associated with higher HAQ scores (β=0.017, 95% CI=0.004 to 0.030). During median 103 weeks follow-up, 44 patients progressed to clinical arthritis. HAQ scores ≥1.0 were associated with arthritis development (HR=2.50, 95% CI=1.03 to 6.10). Within converters, median HAQ scores did not increase from presentation with CSA to arthritis development (0.88 and 0.75, p=0.36)., Conclusions: HAQ scores ≥1.0 at presentation were associated with the development of clinical arthritis. Functional limitations in the prearthritis phase of CSA were as serious as in the early clinical phase, demonstrating the relevance of CSA from patients' perspectives., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Background: During the transition to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) many patients pass through a phase characterised by the presence of symptoms without clinically apparent synovitis. These symptoms are not well-characterised. This taskforce aimed to define the clinical characteristics of patients with arthralgia who are considered at risk for RA by experts based on their clinical experience., Methods: The taskforce consisted of 18 rheumatologists, 1 methodologist, 2 patients, 3 health professionals and 1 research fellow. The process had three phases. In phase I, a list of parameters considered characteristic for clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) was derived; the most important parameters were selected by a three-phased Delphi approach. In phase II, the experts evaluated 50 existing patients on paper, classified them as CSA/no-CSA and indicated their level of confidence. A provisional set of parameters was derived. This was studied for validation in phase III, where all rheumatologists collected patients with and without CSA from their outpatient clinics., Results: The comprehensive list consisted of 55 parameters, of which 16 were considered most important. A multivariable model based on the data from phase II identified seven relevant parameters: symptom duration <1 year, symptoms of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints, morning stiffness duration ≥60 min, most severe symptoms in early morning, first-degree relative with RA, difficulty with making a fist and positive squeeze test of MCP joints. In phase III, the combination of these parameters was accurate in identifying patients with arthralgia who were considered at risk of developing RA (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). Test characteristics for different cut-off points were determined., Conclusions: A set of clinical characteristics for patients with arthralgia who are at risk of progression to RA was established., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Objective: Anti-carbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies are reported to associate with more radiographic progression within the total rheumatoid arthritis (RA) population and anti-citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA)-negative subgroup. We explored the association of anti-CarP with radiographic progression in RA and aimed to replicate the association and evaluate the added value of anti-CarP antibodies in relation to ACPA and rheumatoid factor (RF)., Methods: 576 Swedish and 628 Dutch patients with RA (2394 and 3247 sets of radiographs, respectively) were longitudinally studied. Replication was restricted to the Swedish patients. In both cohorts, the association of anti-CarP with radiographic progression was determined in strata of patients with similar ACPA and RF status; results of both cohorts were combined in fixed-effect meta-analyses. The net percentage of patients for whom the radiographic progression in 5 years was additionally correctly classified when adding anti-CarP to a model including ACPA and RF was evaluated., Results: Anti-CarP associated with radiographic progression in the total Swedish RA population (beta=1.11 per year, p=8.75×10 -13 ) and in the ACPA-negative subgroup (beta=1.14 per year, p=0.034). Anti-CarP associated with more radiographic progression in the strata of ACPA-positive/RF-negative, ACPA-negative/RF-positive and ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients with RA (respective p values 0.014, 0.019 and 0.0056). A model including ACPA and RF correctly classified 54% and 57% of the patients; adding anti-CarP to this model did not increase these percentages (54% and 56% were correctly classified)., Conclusions: Anti-CarP antibodies associated with more severe radiographic progression in the total and ACPA-negative RA population. Anti-CarP-positivity had a statistically significant additive value to ACPA and RF, but did not improve correct classification of patients., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Objectives: MRI sensitively detects inflammation, but the clinical relevance of MRI-detected inflammation is undetermined in early arthritis. Therefore, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the association between MRI-detected inflammation of hands and feet and functional disability in early arthritis., Methods: Five hundred and fourteen early arthritis patients, consecutively included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic, were studied. At baseline a unilateral 1.5 T MRI of the wrist, MCP and MTP joints was performed and functional disability was measured using the HAQ. MRIs were scored for tenosynovitis, synovitis and bone marrow oedema (BME) by two readers. The sum of these types of MRI-detected inflammation yielded the total MRI-inflammation score. Linear and nonlinear regression analyses were performed with HAQ as outcome., Results: The total MRI-inflammation score was associated with the HAQ score (β = 0.014, P < 0.001), as were tenosynovitis (β = 0.046, P < 0.001), synovitis (β = 0.039, P < 0.001) and bone marrow oedema scores (β = 0.015, P < 0.001) separately. Analysing these three types of MRI-detected inflammation in one multivariable model revealed that only tenosynovitis was independently associated with the HAQ score (β = 0.039, P < 0.001). Also after correction for age, gender, joint counts, CRP and auto-antibodies, this association remained significant (β = 0.034, P < 0.001). MRI-detected inflammation at wrists or MCP joints associated significantly with impairments in hand functioning (e.g. difficulties with opening milk cartons or jars). Exploring the relation between MRI-detected inflammation and HAQ scores showed no evidence of a floor effect, suggesting that even low scores of MRI-detected inflammation are functionally relevant., Conclusion: MRI-detected inflammation, and tenosynovitis in particular, is associated with functional disability. This demonstrates the functional relevance of MRI-detected inflammation in early arthritis., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: Although MRI is recommended for diagnostic use in detecting joint inflammation, its value in clinical practice has not been settled. Older symptom-free persons show more MRI-detected inflammation in their hands and feet. Within arthritis patients, a similar effect could be present (a general age effect). The association of age with MRI inflammation could also be enhanced by disease (disease-dependent age effect). Because both effects could have diagnostic consequences, we evaluated the association between age-at-onset and MRI-detected inflammation in early arthritis and RA., Methods: Unilateral contrast-enhanced MRI of the MCP joint, wrist and MTP joints was performed in 589 newly presenting early arthritis patients, of whom 229 had RA. Bone marrow oedema, synovitis and tenosynovitis were summed, yielding the MRI inflammation score. MRI findings were associated with age and compared with those of 193 (previously reported) symptom-free controls., Results: Early arthritis and RA-patients had, respectively, 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3, 3.0, P < 0.001) and 3.7 times (95% CI: 3.2, 4.3, P < 0.001) higher MRI inflammation scores than controls (adjusted for age). At higher age of onset, early arthritis and RA patients had higher MRI inflammation scores (1.03/year, P < 0.001). A similar effect was observed in controls (1.03/year, P < 0.001). The interaction term age*group (arthritis/RA vs controls) was non-significant (P = 0.80 and P = 0.23), suggesting that the age effect was not disease dependent. At the joint level, older RA patients had more extended MRI inflammation, but the preferential locations were similar., Conclusion: Older age is associated with more MRI-detected inflammation, and the effect was similar in arthritis and controls. This age effect should be considered when interpreting hand and foot MRI for diagnostic purposes., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-related autoantibodies have an increased mortality rate. Different autoantibodies are frequently co-occurring and it is unclear which autoantibodies associate with increased mortality. In addition, association with different causes of death is thus far unexplored. Both questions were addressed in three early RA populations., Methods: 2331 patients with early RA included in Better Anti-Rheumatic Farmaco-Therapy cohort (BARFOT) (n=805), Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) (n=678) and Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic cohort (EAC) (n=848) were studied. The presence of anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA), rheumatoid factor (RF) and anticarbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies was studied in relation to all-cause and cause-specific mortality, obtained from national death registers. Cox proportional hazards regression models (adjusted for age, sex, smoking and inclusion year) were constructed per cohort; data were combined in inverse-weighted meta-analyses., Results: During 26 300 person-years of observation, 29% of BARFOT patients, 30% of NOAR and 18% of EAC patients died, corresponding to mortality rates of 24.9, 21.0 and 20.8 per 1000 person-years. The HR for all-cause mortality (95% CI) was 1.48 (1.22 to 1.79) for ACPA, 1.47 (1.22 to 1.78) for RF and 1.33 (1.11 to 1.60) for anti-CarP. When including all three antibodies in one model, RF was associated with all-cause mortality independent of other autoantibodies, HR 1.30 (1.04 to 1.63). When subsequently stratifying for death cause, ACPA positivity associated with increased cardiovascular death, HR 1.52 (1.04 to 2.21), and RF with increased neoplasm-related death, HR 1.64 (1.02 to 2.62), and respiratory disease-related death, HR 1.71 (1.01 to 2.88)., Conclusions: The presence of RF in patients with RA associates with an increased overall mortality rate. Cause-specific mortality rates differed between autoantibodies: ACPA associates with increased cardiovascular death and RF with death related to neoplasm and respiratory disease., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Objective: The use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected inflammation and joint damage in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis is recommended by a European League Against Rheumatism imaging task force. This recommendation is based on the sensitivity of MRI and not on specificity. Knowledge of the prevalence of MRI-detected features in symptom-free persons, however, is pivotal when considering MRI for diagnostic purposes., Methods: From November 2013 to December 2014, 196 symptom-free persons of different ages were recruited from the general population. Inclusion criteria were no history of inflammatory arthritis, no joint symptoms during the previous month, and no clinically detectable arthritis on physical examination. Contrast-enhanced MRIs of the dominant metacarpophalangeal (MCP), wrist, and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints were obtained using a 1.5T scanner and scored by 2 readers for synovitis, bone marrow edema, tenosynovitis, and erosions. For analyses at the joint level, MRI-detected inflammation was considered present if both readers scored the image as positive., Results: Of 193 persons scanned (ages 19-89 years), only 28% had no single inflammatory feature and 22% had no erosions. Primarily low-grade features were observed. All MRI features were positively correlated with age (P < 0.001). Preferential locations for synovitis were MCP2, MCP3, the wrists, and MTP1. Bone marrow edema was frequently present in MCP3, the scaphoid, and MTP1. Tenosynovitis was infrequent, except for in the extensor carpi ulnaris. Preferential locations for erosions were MCP2, MCP3, MCP5, the distal ulna, MTP1, and MTP5. Tables with age-, location-, and inflammation type-dependent frequencies were constructed. Simultaneous colocalized presence of synovitis, bone marrow edema, tenosynovitis, or erosions occurred., Conclusion: MRI-detected inflammation and erosions are prevalent in symptom-free persons from the general population, especially at older ages and at preferential locations., (© 2016, American College of Rheumatology.)

Background: In the population a high body mass index (BMI) has been associated with slightly increased inflammatory markers. Within rheumatoid arthritis (RA), however, a high BMI has been associated with less radiographic progression; this phenomenon is unexplained. We hypothesized that the phenomenon is caused by an inverse relationship between BMI and inflammation in hand and foot joints with RA. To explore this hypothesis, local inflammation was measured using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in early arthritis patients presenting with RA or other arthritides and in asymptomatic volunteers., Methods: A total of 195 RA patients, 159 patients with other inflammatory arthritides included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic, and 193 asymptomatic volunteers underwent a unilateral contrast-enhanced 1.5 T MRI scan of metacarpophalangeal, wrist, and metatarsophalangeal joints. Each MRI scan was scored by two readers on synovitis, bone marrow edema (BME), and tenosynovitis; the sum yielded the total MRI inflammation score. Linear regression on log-transformed MRI data was used., Results: A higher BMI was associated with higher MRI inflammation scores in arthritides other than RA (β = 1.082, p < 0.001) and in asymptomatic volunteers (β = 1.029, p = 0.040), whereas it was associated with lower MRI inflammation scores in RA (β = 0.97, p = 0.005). Evaluating the different types of inflammation, a higher BMI was associated with higher synovitis, BME, and tenosynovitis scores in arthritides other than RA (respectively β = 1.084, p < 0.001, β = 1.021, p = 0.24, and β = 1.054, p = 0.003), but with lower synovitis and BME scores in RA (respectively β = 0.98, p = 0.047 and β = 0.95, p = 0.002)., Conclusions: Increased BMI is correlated with less severe MRI-detected synovitis and BME in RA. This might explain the paradox in RA where obesity correlates with less severe radiographic progression.

Introduction: Patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) have, according to their rheumatologists, an increased risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but their actual outcome is unexplored. This longitudinal study investigated (1) progression from CSA to clinically detectable arthritis and (2) associations of clinical factors, serological factors (among which are anticitrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPAs)) and MRI-detected subclinical inflammation with arthritis development., Methods: 150 patients with CSA were followed for ≥6 months. At baseline, clinical and serological data were collected and unilateral 1.5 T-MRI of metacarpophalangeal (MCP), wrist and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints was made. MRI scoring was done according to the RA MRI scoring system. Subclinical MRI inflammation was defined based on MRI results of 193 symptom-free persons., Results: During follow-up (median=75 weeks, IQR=41-106 weeks), 30 patients developed clinical arthritis; 87% did so <20 weeks after inclusion. In multivariable analyses, age, localisation of initial symptoms in small and large joints (compared with small joints only), C-reactive protein level, ACPA-positivity and subclinical MRI inflammation significantly associated with arthritis development; ACPA and MRI inflammation were most strongly associated (HR (95% CI) respectively, 6.43 (2.57 to 16.05) and 5.07 (1.77 to 14.50)). After 1-year follow-up, 31% of the patients with MRI inflammation and 71% of the ACPA-positive patients with MRI inflammation had progressed to arthritis. Forty-three per cent of the patients that developed arthritis within 1 year were ACPA-negative; 78% of them had subclinical MRI inflammation at baseline. When MRI inflammation was absent arthritis development was infrequent (6% in all patients with CSA and 3% in ACPA-negative patients with CSA)., Conclusions: Subclinical MRI inflammation precedes clinical arthritis with a few months. Subclinical MRI inflammation is, independent of other factors such as ACPA, associated with arthritis development., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objectives: Despite recent progress in biomarker discovery for RA diagnostics, still over one-third of RA patients-and even more in early disease-present without RF or ACPA. The aim of this study was to confirm the presence of previously identified autoantibodies to novel Hasselt University (UH) peptides in early and seronegative RA., Methods: Screening for antibodies against novel UH peptides UH-RA.1, UH-RA.9, UH-RA.14 and UH-RA.21, was performed in two large independent cohorts. Peptide ELISAs were developed to screen for the presence of antibodies to UH-RA peptides. First, 292 RA patients (including 39 early patients), 90 rheumatic and 97 healthy controls from UH were studied. Antibody reactivity to two peptides (UH-RA.1 and UH-RA.21) was also evaluated in 600 RA patients, 309 patients with undifferentiated arthritis and 157 rheumatic controls from the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic cohort., Results: In both cohorts, 38% of RA patients were seronegative for RF and ACPA. Testing for autoantibodies to UH-RA.1 and UH-RA.21 reduced the serological gap from 38% to 29% in the UH cohort (P = 0.03) and from 38% to 32% in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic cohort (P = 0.01). Furthermore, 19-33% of early RA patients carried antibodies to these peptides. Specificities in rheumatic controls ranged from 82 to 96%. Whereas antibodies against UH-RA.1 were related to remission, anti-UH-RA.21 antibodies were associated with inflammation, joint erosion and higher tender and swollen joint counts., Conclusion: This study validates the presence of antibody reactivity to novel UH-RA peptides in seronegative and early RA. This might reinforce current diagnostics and improve early diagnosis and intervention in RA., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: In patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), bone marrow edema (BME) scores are associated with development of erosions. However, little is known about the course and outcome of BME at bone level. We undertook this study to determine the association of BME and synovitis with the development of erosions in the same bone longitudinally., Methods: Using 1.5T magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and at 4- and 12-month follow-up, we studied 1,947 bones of the metacarpophalangeal, wrist, and metatarsophalangeal joints in 59 patients presenting with RA or undifferentiated arthritis. Scanning and scoring of BME, synovitis, and erosions were performed according to the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Rheumatoid Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring system. We evaluated the relationship of the course of BME and synovitis with erosive progression at bone level during 1 year., Results: Of the bones showing BME at baseline (n = 203), BME persisted in 56%, disappeared in 39%, and disappeared and then reappeared in 5%. Stratified analyses at baseline revealed that BME was associated with erosive progression both in the presence and in the absence of local synovitis, with odds ratios (ORs) of 7.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.8-14.9) and 6.9 (95% CI 1.9-25.6), respectively. However, local synovitis was not associated with erosive progression in the presence or in the absence of BME (ORs of 2.0 [95% CI 0.6-7.0] and 1.9 [95% CI 0.8-4.1], respectively). In multivariable generalized estimating equation analyses, persistent BME was strongly associated with erosive progression (OR 60.5 [95% CI 16.8-218.1]) in contrast to persistent synovitis (OR 1.3 [95% CI 0.4-4.4])., Conclusion: BME frequently persists during the first year. Persistent BME was strongly associated with erosive progression in the same bone, independently of local synovitis. No independent association was observed for persistent synovitis. These findings are relevant for comprehending the development of erosions in RA., (© 2016, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: Disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-free sustained remission, the sustained absence of synovitis after cessation of DMARD therapy, is a relevant long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) if (1) its occurrence is promoted by treatment and (2) this status reflects resolution of symptoms and disability. This study investigated both items., Methods: 1007 patients with RA diagnosed between 1993 and 2011, included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic, were studied on achieving DMARD-free sustained remission. Patients included in 1993-1995 were initially treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, in 1996-1998 mild DMARDs were started early, from 1999 onwards methotrexate was initiated promptly and from 2005 onwards disease activity score (DAS)-steered treatment was common. Remission rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional regression., Results: In total, 155 patients achieved DMARD-free sustained remission. Specific treatment strategies were significantly associated with achieving remission (p<0.001). Cox regression adjusted for anticitrullinated protein antibody/rheumatoid factor, swollen joint count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein revealed HRs for DMARD-free sustained remission of 1.13 (95% CI 0.48 to 2.64) in patients diagnosed in 1996-1998, 2.39 (1.07 to 5.32) in patients treated with early methotrexate (inclusion 1999-2004) and 3.72 (1.60 to 8.62) in those treated early with methotrexate and DAS-steered therapy (inclusion 2005-2011). At the time of remission, the Health Assessment Questionnaire was at the level of the general population (median 0.13, IQR 0-0.63). Also, patient-rated visual analogue scale (VAS) morning stiffness, fatigue, pain and disease activity were low (median (IQR) mm, 14 (2-27), 10 (0-47), 6 (0-20), 7 (0-20), respectively)., Conclusions: More intensive treatment strategies increased the chance for DMARD-free sustained remission, indicating that RA chronicity can be influenced. Patients with RA achieving DMARD-free sustained remission have a normalised functional status., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objective: To examine the symptoms, signs and additional investigations that general practitioners (GPs) used in the process of diagnosing recent-onset inflammatory arthritis. Here, we assumed that the recorded information was crucial in the diagnostic process of arthritis., Methods: A database including electronic medical records of 16 Dutch general practices with 44,350 patients was studied. Patients with an episode of RA and allied conditions according to the International Classification of Primary Care-1 code L88 (here summarized as inflammatory arthritis) in the period 2009-2013 were selected. Frequencies of symptoms, signs and performed additional investigations were evaluated and compared between referred and non-referred patients., Results: A total of 126 patients were diagnosed with inflammatory arthritis. Information on symptom duration, symptom location, swelling, loss of function, redness and warmth were recorded in, respectively, 64, 90, 80, 52, 48 and 41% of patients. Information on morning stiffness, family history or the squeeze-test was provided in 20, 18 and 17% of patients. Symmetry, inflammatory type arthralgia and fist closure were not recorded. Acute phase reactants and auto-antibody tests were performed in 40-46% and 8-11%, respectively. Eighty-four patients (67%) were referred to secondary care. Symptoms located in the foot, morning stiffness, family history, myalgia, absence of redness and elevated acute phase reactants were associated with referral (all P < 0.05)., Conclusion: GPs mainly used classical signs of inflammation to diagnose inflammatory arthritis. Other items that are regularly assessed in secondary care (morning stiffness, squeeze-test, family history) were infrequently recorded by GPs., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Introduction: Anti-carbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies have been described in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and arthralgia patients at risk of developing RA. To what extent these autoantibodies are specific for RA is unknown. Therefore, we investigated the diagnostic performance of the presence of anti-CarP antibodies for RA in a setting of early arthritis., Methods: Anti-CarP antibodies were detected using carbamylated fetal calf serum as substrate. Anti-CCP2 antibodies were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and immunoglobulin M (IgM) rheumatoid factor (RF) as part of routine care. Sera were derived from patients in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic cohort obtained at inclusion. Test characteristics were determined using the fulfillment of the 2010 RA criteria after 1 year as outcome., Results: In total 2086 early arthritis patients were studied regarding the presence of anti-CarP antibodies. We observed that the sensitivity and specificity of the presence of anti-CarP antibodies for RA were 44 % and 89 %, respectively. As a reference, sensitivity and specificity of the presence of anti-CCP2 antibodies were 54 % and 96 %, respectively, and of IgM-RF 59 % and 91 %. Patients harboring anti-CarP antibodies not classified as RA were mainly diagnosed with undifferentiated arthritis and less frequently reactive arthritis and psoriatic arthritis., Conclusion: Anti-CarP antibodies are predominantly present in RA but can also be detected in other forms of arthritis.