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• Longitudinal analysis of heating consumption data from the Netherlands and Denmark. • Comparing variances in consumption of 887,685 moving and staying households. • Occupants and buildings each explain half of the variation in heating consumption. • The relative influence of occupants differs for different building characteristics. It is commonly accepted that occupants have a significant influence on the variation in residential heating consumption. However, the scale of that influence lacks empirical investigation. The aim of this study was to distinguish which part of the variance in actual residential heating consumption can be attributed to the occupants, and which part to the building itself. This was achieved by applying and extending a method suggested by Sonderegger in 1978, using updated and significantly improved data from two different countries: the Netherlands and Denmark. These data contain different types of heating supply systems (district heating and natural gas) and different housing forms (multi and single-family social housing, and private detached single-family houses). For the studied databases, the results indicate that approximately 50% of the variance in heating consumption between houses can be explained by differences related to occupants. The other 50% can be explained by the characteristics of the building itself and other physical parameters, which are often not taken into account in simulation models of heat transmission within buildings. Additional analyses indicate that the relative influence of occupants on heating consumption differs depending on the building characteristics of the dwelling. For example, the influence of occupants is larger when the building is more energy efficient. Based on the research results, it can be concluded that it is unrealistic to aim for a building simulation model that perfectly projects residential heating consumption for individual cases. However, creating building simulation models and occupant consumption profiles that accurately represent average residential heating consumption should be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • A pre and post renovation energy use analysis of almost 90,000 renovated dwellings. • The (p)rebound effects explain only partly disappointing energy renovation results. • Effectiveness of renovations are dependent on state of building prior to renovation. • Effectiveness of renovations are dependent on type of occupant. • Deep renovations often save less energy than expected but are the most effective. Abstract Energy renovations often result in lower energy savings than expected. Therefore, in this study we investigate nearly 90,000 renovated dwellings in the Netherlands with pre and post renovation data of actual and calculated energy consumption. One of the main additions of this paper, compared to previous studies on thermal renovation, is that it only takes dwellings into account with the same occupants before and after renovation, using a large longitudinal dataset. Overall this paper shows new insights towards the influence of the energy efficiency state of a building prior to energy renovation, the type of building, the number of occupants, the income level of the occupants and the occupancy time on the actual energy savings, the energy saving gap and on the probability of lower energy savings than expected. We also investigate if the influence is different per type of thermal renovation measure. Some of the findings are: it is impossible to conclude which single thermal renovation measure is the most effective because this is dependent on the energy efficiency of the building prior to the energy renovation, type of building, income level and occupancy; occupants with a high income save more energy than occupants with low income; dwellings with employed occupants benefit more from improved building installations than dwellings occupied by unemployed occupants; The prebound and rebound effects are only part of the explanations for lower than expected energy savings; Deep renovations result more often in lower than expected energy savings than single renovation measures but nevertheless they result in the highest average energy saving compared to other thermal renovation measures. The results could be used for more realistic expectations of the energy reduction achieved by thermal renovations, which is important for (amongst others) policy makers, clients and contractors who make use of energy performance contracting, home owners, landlords and (social) housing associations and as a starting point to improve the energy calculation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]