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Questions remain regarding the effect of baseline host and exposure factors on vaccine efficacy (VE) across pathogens and vaccine platforms. We report placebo-controlled data from four Phase 3 COVID-19 trials during the early period of the pandemic. This was a cross-protocol analysis of four randomized, placebo-controlled efficacy trials (Moderna/mRNA1273, AstraZeneca/AZD1222, Janssen/Ad26.COV2.S, and Novavax/NVX-CoV2373) using a harmonized design. Trials were conducted in the United States and international sites in adults ≥ 18 years of age. VE was assessed for symptomatic and severe COVID-19. We analyzed 114,480 participants from both placebo and vaccine arms, enrolled July 2020 to February 2021, with follow up through July 2021. VE against symptomatic COVID-19 showed little heterogeneity across baseline socio-demographic, clinical or exposure characteristics, in either univariate or multivariate analysis, regardless of vaccine platform. Similarly, VE against severe COVID-19 in the single trial (Janssen) with sufficient endpoints for analysis showed little evidence of heterogeneity. COVID-19 VE is not influenced by baseline host or exposure characteristics across efficacy trials of different vaccine platforms and countries when well matched to circulating virus strains. This supports use of these vaccines, regardless of platform type, as effective tools in the near term for reducing symptomatic and severe COVID-19, particularly for older individuals and those with common co-morbidities during major variant shifts. Clinical trial registration numbers: NCT04470427, NCT04516746, NCT04505722, and NCT04611802.

BackgroundAdverse childhood experiences (ACEs) increase the risk of poor health outcomes later in life. Psychosocial stressors may also have intergenerational health effects by which parental ACEs are associated with mental and physical health of children. Epigenetic programming may be one mechanism linking parental ACEs to child health. This study aimed to investigate epigenome-wide associations of maternal preconception ACEs with DNA methylation patterns of children. In the Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas study, cord blood DNA methylation was measured using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. Preconception ACEs, which occurred during the mothers' childhoods, were collected using a standard ACE questionnaire including 10 ACE indicators. Maternal ACE exposures were defined in this study as (1) the total number of ACEs; (2) the total number of ACEs categorized as 0, 1-3, and > 4; and (3) individual ACEs. Associations of ACE exposures with differential methylated positions, regions, and CpG modules determined using weighted gene co-expression network analysis were evaluated adjusting for covariates.ResultsData on maternal ACEs and cord blood DNA methylation were available for 196 mother/newborn pairs. One differential methylated position was associated with maternal experience of emotional abuse (cg05486260/FAM135B gene; q value

Gestational age (GA) is an important determinant of child health and disease risk. Two epigenetic GA clocks have been developed using DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns in cord blood. We investigate the accuracy of GA clocks and determinants of epigenetic GA acceleration (GAA), a biomarker of biological ageing. We hypothesize that prenatal and birth characteristics are associated with altered GAA, thereby disrupting foetal biological ageing. We examined 372 mother-child pairs from the Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas study of primarily Latino farmworkers in California. Chronological GA was robustly correlated with epigenetic GA (DNAm GA) estimated by the Knight (r = 0.48, p

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (

Epigenetic aging biomarkers are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We evaluated if occupational exposure to three established chemical carcinogens is associated with acceleration of epigenetic aging. We studied workers in China occupationally exposed to benzene, trichloroethylene (TCE) or formaldehyde by measuring personal air exposures prior to blood collection. Unexposed controls matched by age and sex were selected from nearby factories. We measured leukocyte DNA methylation (DNAm) in peripheral white blood cells using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip to calculate five epigenetic aging clocks and DNAmTL, a biomarker associated with leukocyte telomere length and cell replication. We tested associations between exposure intensity and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA), defined as the residuals of regressing the DNAm aging biomarker on chronological age, matching factors and potential confounders. Median differences in EAA between exposure groups were tested using a permutation test with exact p-values. Epigenetic clocks were strongly correlated with age (Spearman r > 0.8) in all three occupational studies. There was a positive exposure-response relationship between benzene and the Skin-Blood Clock EAA biomarker: median EAA was -0.91 years in controls (n = 44), 0.78 years in workers exposed to

Emerging research suggests associations of physical and psychosocial stressors with epigenetic aging. Although this work has included early-life exposures, data on maternal exposures and epigenetic aging of their children remain sparse. Using longitudinally collected data from the California, Salinas Valley CHAMACOS study, we examined relationships between maternal Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) reported up to 18 years of life, prior to pregnancy, with eight measures (Horvath, Hannum, SkinBloodClock, Intrinsic, Extrinsic, PhenoAge, GrimAge, and DNAm telomere length) of blood leukocyte epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in their children at ages 7, 9, and 14 years (N = 238 participants with 483 observations). After adjusting for maternal chronological age at delivery, pregnancy smoking/alcohol use, parity, child gestational age, and estimated leukocyte proportions, higher maternal ACEs were significantly associated with at least a 0.76-year increase in child Horvath and Intrinsic EAA. Higher maternal ACEs were also associated with a 0.04 kb greater DNAm estimate of telomere length of children. Overall, our data suggests that maternal preconception ACEs are associated with biological aging in their offspring in childhood and that preconception ACEs have differential relationships with EAA measures, suggesting different physiologic utilities of EEA measures. Studies are necessary to confirm these findings and to elucidate potential pathways to explain these relationships, which may include intergenerational epigenetic inheritance and persistent physical and social exposomes.

Metformin and weight loss relationships with epigenetic age measures-biological aging biomarkers-remain understudied. We performed a post-hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial among overweight/obese breast cancer survivors (N = 192) assigned to metformin, placebo, weight loss with metformin, or weight loss with placebo interventions for 6 months. Epigenetic age was correlated with chronological age (r = 0.20-0.86; P

Diesel exhaust (DE) is a major contributor to ambient air pollution around the world. It is a known human carcinogen that targets the respiratory system and increases risk for many diseases, but there is limited research on the effects of DE exposure on the epigenome of human bronchial epithelial cells. Understanding the epigenetic impact of this environmental pollutant can elucidate biological mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of harmful DE-related health effects. To estimate the causal effect of short-term DE exposure on the bronchial epithelial epigenome, we conducted a controlled single-blinded randomized crossover human experiment of exposure to DE and used bronchoscopy and Illumina 450K arrays for data collection and analysis, respectively. Of the 13 participants, 11 (85%) were male and 2 (15%) were female, and 12 (92%) were White and one (8%) was Hispanic; the mean age was 26 years (SD = 3.8 years). Eighty CpGs were differentially methylated, achieving the minimum possible exact P-value of P = 2.44 × 10-4 (i.e. 2/213). In regional analyses, we found two differentially methylated regions (DMRs) annotated to the chromosome 5 open reading frame 63 genes (C5orf63; 7-CpGs) and unc-45 myosin chaperone A gene (UNC45A; 5-CpGs). Both DMRs showed increased DNA methylation after DE exposure. The average causal effects for the DMRs ranged from 1.5% to 6.0% increases in DNA methylation at individual CpGs. In conclusion, we found that short-term DE alters DNA methylation of genes in target bronchial epithelial cells, demonstrating epigenetic level effects of exposure that could be implicated in pulmonary pathologies.

Astronauts undertaking long-duration space missions may be vulnerable to unique stressors that can impact human aging. Nevertheless, few studies have examined the relationship of mission duration with DNA-methylation-based biomarkers of aging in astronauts. Using data from the six participants of the Mars-500 mission, a high-fidelity 520-day ground simulation experiment, we tested relationships of mission duration with five longitudinally measured blood DNA-methylation-based metrics: DNAmGrimAge, DNAmPhenoAge, DNA-methylation-based estimator of telomere length (DNAmTL), mitotic divisions (epigenetic mitotic clock [epiTOC2]), and pace of aging (PoA). We provide evidence that, relative to baseline, mission duration was associated with significant decreases in epigenetic aging. However, only decreases in DNAmPhenoAge remained significant 7 days post-mission. We also observed significant changes in estimated proportions of plasmablasts, CD4T, CD8 naive, and natural killer (NK) cells. Only decreases in NK cells remained significant post-mission. If confirmed more broadly, these findings contribute insights to improve the understanding of the biological aging implications for individuals experiencing long-duration space travel.

Identifying a biomarker or treatment‐dose threshold that marks a specified level of risk is an important problem, especially in clinical trials. In view of this goal, we consider a covariate‐adjusted threshold‐based interventional estimand, which happens to equal the binary treatment–specific mean estimand from the causal inference literature obtained by dichotomizing the continuous biomarker or treatment as above or below a threshold. The unadjusted version of this estimand was considered in Donovan et al.. Expanding upon Stitelman et al., we show that this estimand, under conditions, identifies the expected outcome of a stochastic intervention that sets the treatment dose of all participants above the threshold. We propose a novel nonparametric efficient estimator for the covariate‐adjusted threshold‐response function for the case of informative outcome missingness, which utilizes machine learning and targeted minimum‐loss estimation (TMLE). We prove the estimator is efficient and characterize its asymptotic distribution and robustness properties. Construction of simultaneous 95% confidence bands for the threshold‐specific estimand across a set of thresholds is discussed. In the Supporting Information, we discuss how to adjust our estimator when the biomarker is missing at random, as occurs in clinical trials with biased sampling designs, using inverse probability weighting. Efficiency and bias reduction of the proposed estimator are assessed in simulations. The methods are employed to estimate neutralizing antibody thresholds for virologically confirmed dengue risk in the CYD14 and CYD15 dengue vaccine trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV)-associated congenital microcephaly is an important contributor to pediatric death, and more robust pediatric mortality risk metrics are needed to help guide life plans and clinical decision making for these patients. Although common etiologies of pediatric and adult mortality differ, early life health can impact adult outcomes-potentially through DNA methylation. Hence, in this pilot study, we take an early step in identifying pediatric mortality risk metrics by examining associations of ZIKV infection and associated congenital microcephaly with existing adult DNA methylation-based mortality biomarkers: GrimAge and Zhang's mortality score (ZMS).Methods: Mortality measures were calculated from previously published HumanMethylationEPIC BeadChip data from 44 Brazilian children aged 5-40 months (18 with ZIKV-associated microcephaly; 7 normocephalic, exposed to ZIKV in utero; and 19 unexposed controls). We used linear models adjusted for chronological age, sex, methylation batch and white blood cell proportions to evaluate ZIKV and mortality marker relationships.Results: We observed significant decreases in GrimAge-component plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 [PAI-1; β = -2453.06 pg/ml, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3652.96, -1253.16, p = 0.0002], and ZMS-site cg14975410 methylation (β = -0.06, 95% CI -0.09, -0.03, p = 0.0003) among children with microcephaly compared to controls. PAI-1 (β = -2448.70 pg/ml, 95% CI -4384.45, -512.95, p = 0.01) and cg14975410 (β = 0.01, 95% CI -0.04, 0.06, p = 0.64) results in comparisons of normocephalic, ZIKV-exposed children to controls were not statistically significant.Conclusion: Our results suggest that elements of previously-identified adult epigenetic markers of mortality risk are associated with ZIKV-associated microcephaly, a known contributor to pediatric mortality risk. These findings may provide insights for efforts aimed at developing pediatric mortality markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. In addition, we introduce a novel data-efficient variant of calibration that avoids the need for hold-out calibration sets, which we refer to as cross-calibration. Causal isotonic cross-calibration takes cross-fitted predictors and outputs a single calibrated predictor obtained using all available data. We establish under weak conditions that causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration both achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates so long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated well in an appropriate sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm to provide strong distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 clinical trial, vaccine recipients were assessed for neutralizing and binding antibodies as correlates of risk for COVID-19 disease and as correlates of protection. These immune markers were measured at the time of second vaccination and 4 weeks later, with values reported in standardized World Health Organization international units. All markers were inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. Vaccine recipients with postvaccination 50% neutralization titers 10, 100, and 1000 had estimated vaccine efficacies of 78% (95% confidence interval, 54 to 89%), 91% (87 to 94%), and 96% (94 to 98%), respectively. These results help define immune marker correlates of protection and may guide approval decisions for messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines and other COVID-19 vaccines.