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[ES] El agua constituye un recurso esencial cuya disponibilidad limitada y su creciente demanda hace que sea considerado como un elemento de gran valor desde diversos puntos de vista (ambiental, biológico, social, económico, etc.). El mantenimiento de condiciones favorables que permitan un equilibrio medioambiental adecuado es una de las metas de una adecuada planificación y gestión de recursos hídricos. Una de las acciones principales para la preservación de la biodiversidad de las cuencas consiste en la implementación de caudales ecológicos. Para ello, es importante poder contar con herramientas adecuadas que permitan cuantificar los efectos de los cauda-les ecológicos sobre las actividades socioeconómicas y el medio ambiental. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo proponer metodologías para la obtención y análisis de indicadores que permitan la optimización de regímenes de caudales ecológicos en sistemas de recursos hídricos complejos. Estas metodologías posibilitan evaluar los efectos de los caudales ecológicos en la alteración hidrológica, la alteración del hábitat, las garantías de las demandas, y la explotación del recurso hídrico. Esta tesis doctoral se estructura como un compendio de tres artículos científicos publicados en revistas del primer y segundo cuartil del Journal Citation Reports. En el primer artículo se define una metodología para el análisis de la alteración hidrológica en sistemas altamente regulados para diferentes escenarios de caudales ecológicos, apoyada en la utilización de modelos de simulación de la gestión de sistemas de recursos hídricos, y la posterior estimación y agrupación de indicadores de alteración hidrológica. Dicha metodología ha sido aplicada en la parte española de la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Duero. El segundo artículo plantea una metodología para la obtención de un indicador de alteración del hábitat en cuencas reguladas, mediante la aplicación conjunta de un modelo de simulación de la gestión de cuencas y un modelo de estimación de series temporales de hábitat de las especies acuáticas presentes en la zona de estudio. La metodología se aplica en el sistema de explotación del Órbigo, perteneciente a la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Duero. Las series temporales de hábitat fueron obtenidas y analizadas para diferentes escenarios de regímenes de caudales ecológicos, evaluando sus efectos en la alteración del hábitat y las garantías de las demandas. El tercer artículo propone una metodología para evaluar la variación temporal y espacial del índice de explotación del recurso hídrico (WEI+) en cuencas reguladas. Esta metodología, que fue aplicada en la cuenca del río del Órbigo, permite analizar los efectos de los regímenes de caudales eco-lógicos en el estrés hídrico de los distintos tramos de rio de una cuenca regulada. El enfoque propuesto para reducir la escala espacial del índice de explotación del recurso hídrico es también es útil para identificar las mejores fuentes de agua en las cuencas fluviales para satisfacer futuras demandas de agua y/o restricciones ambientales. Finalmente, a partir de la información obtenida de estas metodologías, se realiza un análisis conjunto de todos estos parámetros para las diferentes alternativas de caudal ecológicos planteadas. Para ello, se evalúan de manera conjunta indicadores globales de alteración hidrológica, alteración de hábitat, déficits de las demandas y estrés hídrico. Estos indicadores globales facilitan, tanto a los gestores como a los usuarios del agua, el análisis de estrategias de planificación y gestión de recursos hídricos., [CA] L'aigua constitueix un recurs essencial la disponibilitat limitada del qual i la seua creixent demanda fa que siga considerat com un element de gran valor des de diversos punts de vista (ambiental, biològic, social, econòmic, etc.). El manteniment de condicions favorables que permeten un equilibri mediambiental adequat és una de les metes d'una adequada planificació i gestió de recursos hídrics. Una de les accions principals per a la preservació de la biodiversitat de les conques consisteix en la implementació de cabals ecològics. Per a això, és important poder comptar amb eines adequades que permeten quantificar els efectes dels cabals ecològics sobre les activitats socioeconòmiques i el mitjà ambiental. Aquesta tesi té com a objectiu proposar metodologies per a l'obtenció i anàlisi d'indicadors que permeten l'optimització de règims de cabals ecològics en sistemes de recursos hídrics complexos. Aquestes metodologies possibiliten avaluar els efectes dels cabals ecològics en l'alteració hidrològica, l'alteració de l'hàbitat, les garanties de les demandes, i l'explotació del recurs hídric. Aquesta tesi doctoral s'estructura com un compendi de tres articles científics publicats en revistes del primer i segon quartil del Journal Citation Reports. En el primer article es defineix una metodologia per a l'anàlisi de l'alteració hidrològica en sistemes altament regulats per a diferents escenaris de cabals ecològics, recolzada en la utilització de models de simulació de la gestió de sistemes de recursos hídrics, i la posterior estimació i agrupació d'indicadors d'alteració hidrològica. Aquesta metodologia ha sigut aplicada en la part espanyola de la Demarcació Hidrogràfica del Duero. El segon article planteja una metodologia per a l'obtenció d'un indicador d'alteració de l'hàbitat en conques regulades, mitjançant l'aplicació conjunta d'un model de simulació de la gestió de conques i un model d'estimació de sèries temporals d'hàbitat de les espècies aquàtiques presents en la zona d'estudi. La metodologia s'aplica en el sistema d'explotació del Órbigo, pertanyent a la Demarcació Hidrogràfica del Duero. Les sèries temporals d'hàbitat van ser obtingudes i analitzades per a diferents escenaris de règims de cabals ecològics, avaluant els seus efectes en l'alteració de l'hàbitat i les garanties de les demandes. El tercer article proposa una metodologia per a avaluar la variació temporal i espacial de l'índex d'explotació del recurs hídric (WEI+) en conques regulades. Aquesta metodologia, que va ser aplicada en la conca del riu del Órbigo, permet analitzar els efectes dels règims de cabals ecològics en l'estrés hídric dels diferents trams de va riure d'una conca regulada. L'enfocament proposat per a reduir l'escala espacial de l'índex d'explotació del recurs hídric és també és útil per a identificar les millors fonts d'aigua en les conques fluvials per a satisfer futures demandes d'aigua i/o restriccions ambientals. Finalment, a partir de la informació obtinguda d'aquestes metodologies, es realitza una anàlisi conjunta de tots aquests paràmetres per a les diferents alternatives de cabal ecològics plantejades. Per a això, s'avaluen de manera conjunta indicadors globals d'alteració hidrològica, alteració d'hàbitat, dèficits de les demandes i estrés hídric. Aquests indicadors globals faciliten, tant als gestors com als usuaris de l'aigua, l'anàlisi d'estratègies de planificació i gestió de recursos hídrics., [EN] Water is an essential resource whose limited availability and growing demand means that it is considered an element of great value from various points of view (environmental, biological, social, economic, etc.). The maintenance of favourable conditions that allow an adequate environmental balance is one of the goals of water resources planning and management. One of the main actions for the preservation of the basin biodiversity in the implementation of environmental flows. To this end, it is important to have adequate tools that allow assessing the effects of environmental flows on socioeconomic activities and the environment. This thesis aims to propose methodologies for assessing and analysing indicators that allow the optimization of ecological flow regimes in complex water resource systems. These methodologies enable evaluating the effects of ecological flows on hydrological alteration, habitat alteration, reliability of water demands, and water resources exploitation. This doctoral thesis is structured as a compendium of three research papers published in journals indexed in the first and second quartiles of the Journal Citation Reports. In the first paper, a methodology for the analysis of hydrological alteration in highly regulated systems for different scenarios of ecological flows is pro-posed. The methodology is endorsed using models for the management of water resource systems, and the subsequent computation and grouping of indicators of hydrological alteration. This methodology was applied to the Spanish part of the Duero Water District. The second paper proposes a methodology for assessing an indicator of habitat alteration in regulated basins through the joint application of a basin management simulation model and a model to estimate habitat time series of the aquatic species present in the study zone. The methodology is applied to the Órbigo exploitation system, which belongs to the Duero Water District. Habitat time series were obtained and analysed for different environmental flow regime scenario, and the effects of this environmental flows on habitat alteration and water demand reliability were assessed. The third paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the temporal and spatial variation of the water exploitation index (WEI+) in regulated basins. This methodology, which was applied in the Órbigo river basin, allows ana-lysing the effects of ecological flow regimes on water stress in the different river sections of a regulated basin. The proposed approach to reduce the spatial scale of the water exploitation index is also helpful to identify the best water sources in river basins to meet future water demands and/or higher values of environmental restrictions. Finally, based on the information obtained through the application of these methodologies, a joint analysis of all these parameters was carried out for the different proposed environmental flow alternatives. To this end, global indicators of hydrological alteration, habitat alteration, water demand deficits and water stress are jointly evaluated. These global indicators help water managers and users to analyse strategies of water resources planning and management., The authors thank the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIN) and Spanish Research Agency (AEI) for the financial support MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 to RESPHIRA project (PID2019- 106322RB-I00). RB was partly funded by MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033 through Juan de la Cierva program (IJC2019-038848-I). Funding for open ac- cess charge: CRUE-Universitat Politècnica de València. The authors also thank three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions to improve this work.

This thesis presents analysis of the status of IWRM implementation along with the challenges with regards to policy and institutional measures as well as the required basin information and management instruments. The research entailed a detailed analysis of water resources systems based on a case study from the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia, covering the historical and present state of the challenges and gaps in policies, institutional arrangements and management instruments. The status quo of practical water management, implications of plausible management alternatives in terms of their impact to future water availability, demand fulfilment, patterns of use, and sustainability of the environment were examined. Moreover, the interlinkages and dynamics between key water dependent resources sectors, broadly categorized into water, energy, food, and ecosystems (WEFE) was explored to identify key tradeoffs and synergies. This was deliberated as to improving the synchronization of sectoral plans and resources management programs, thereby fast-tracking the coordination process in IWRM. Overall, the research provides a clearer understanding of the system-wide problems, structural challenges and possible future consequences regarding the management and sustainability of the entire water resource system. Ultimately the purpose is to set in motion new strategies and mechanisms to improve the implementation of the currently applied IWRM framework in the context of the SDGs.

This thesis presents analysis of the status of IWRM implementation along with the challenges with regards to policy and institutional measures as well as the required basin information and management instruments. The research entailed a detailed analysis of water resources systems based on a case study from the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia, covering the historical and present state of the challenges and gaps in policies, institutional arrangements and management instruments. The status quo of practical water management, implications of plausible management alternatives in terms of their impact to future water availability, demand fulfilment, patterns of use, and sustainability of the environment were examined. Moreover, the interlinkages and dynamics between key water dependent resources sectors, broadly categorized into water, energy, food, and ecosystems (WEFE) was explored to identify key trade-offs and synergies. This was deliberated as to improving the synchronization of sectoral plans and resources management programs, thereby fast-tracking the coordination process in IWRM. Overall, the research provides a clearer understanding of the system-wide problems, structural challenges and possible future consequences regarding the management and sustainability of the entire water resource system. Ultimately the purpose is to set in motion new strategies and mechanisms to improve the implementation of the currently applied IWRM framework in the context of the SDGs.

Long-term planning of water resources systems must contend with severe uncertainty in future projections of hydroclimatic variability across multiple scales, as well as uncertainty in human behavior, such as land use and reservoir operation. This talk will review recent developments in adaptive policy design to meet this challenge, centered around the key question: how should we learn from, and react to, dynamic observations of hydroclimatic, human, and ecological variables to ensure long-term sustainability? Specific contributions will cover three areas: (1) adaptation of short-term control rules, enabling existing infrastructure to manage multiple objectives across a range of possible futures; (2) exploration of endogenous system dynamics and feedbacks governing agricultural water demand, an additional source of structural uncertainty in the planning problem; and (3) dynamic adaptation of infrastructure and operations by designing policies conditioned on projected future observations of climate and hydrologic variables. Collectively, these advances provide a foundation to directly map observations and projections of system states and fluxes to adaptive actions for both short-term management and long-term planning. While the studies presented here will focus on the California water resources system, the methods are broadly applicable across agriculture and energy systems facing uncertain climate risks. The talk will conclude with a discussion of future directions and open research questions in the area of adaptive planning.

The socio-hydrology community has been very successful in promoting the need for taking the human factor into account in the mainstream hydrology literature since 2012. However, the interest in studying and modeling human-water systems is not new and pre-existed the post-2012 socio-hydrology. So, it is critical to ask what socio-hydrology has been able to offer that would have been unachievable using the existing methods, tools, and analysis frameworks. Thus far, the socio-hydrology studies show a strong overlap with what has already been in the literature, especially in the water resources systems and coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) areas. Nevertheless, the work in these areas has been generally dismissed by the socio-hydrology literature. This paper overviews some of the general concerns about originality, practicality, and contributions of socio-hydrology. It is argued that while in theory, a common sense about the need for considering humans as an integral component of water resources systems models can strengthen our coupled human-water systems research, the current approaches and trends in socio-hydrology can make this interest area less inclusive and interdisciplinary.

[ES] La cuantificación de la incertidumbre predictiva es de vital importancia para producir predicciones hidrológicas confiables que soporten y apoyen la toma de decisiones en el marco de la gestión de los recursos hídricos. Los post-procesadores hidrológicos son herramientas adecuadas para estimar la incertidumbre predictiva de las predicciones hidrológicas (salidas del modelo hidrológico). El objetivo general de esta tesis es mejorar los métodos de post-procesamiento hidrológico para estimar la incertidumbre predictiva de caudales mensuales. Esta tesis pretende resolver dos problemas del post-procesamiento hidrológico: i) la heterocedasticidad y ii) la función de verosimilitud intratable. Los objetivos específicos de esta tesis son tres. Primero y relacionado con la heterocedasticidad, se propone y evalúa un nuevo método de post-procesamiento llamado GMM post-processor que consiste en la combinación del esquema de modelado de probabilidad Bayesiana conjunta y la mezcla de Gaussianas múltiples. Además, se comparó el desempeño del post-procesador propuesto con otros métodos tradicionales y bien aceptados en caudales mensuales a través de las doce cuencas hidrográficas del proyecto MOPEX. A partir de este objetivo (capitulo 2), encontramos que GMM post-processor es el mejor para estimar la incertidumbre predictiva de caudales mensuales, especialmente en cuencas de clima seco. Segundo, se propone un método para cuantificar la incertidumbre predictiva en el contexto de post-procesamiento hidrológico cuando sea difícil calcular la función de verosimilitud (función de verosimilitud intratable). Algunas veces en modelamiento hidrológico es difícil calcular la función de verosimilitud, por ejemplo, cuando se trabaja con modelos complejos o en escenarios de escasa información como en cuencas no aforadas. Por lo tanto, se propone el ABC post-processor que intercambia la estimación de la función de verosimilitud por el uso de resúmenes estadísticos y datos simulados. De este objetivo específico (capitulo 3), se demuestra que la distribución predictiva estimada por un método exacto (MCMC post-processor) o por un método aproximado (ABC post-processor) es similar. Este resultado es importante porque trabajar con escasa información es una característica común en los estudios hidrológicos. Finalmente, se aplica el ABC post-processor para estimar la incertidumbre de los estadísticos de los caudales obtenidos desde las proyecciones de cambio climático, como un caso particular de un problema de función de verosimilitud intratable. De este objetivo específico (capitulo 4), encontramos que el ABC post-processor ofrece proyecciones de cambio climático más confiables que los 14 modelos climáticos (sin post-procesamiento). De igual forma, ABC post-processor produce bandas de incertidumbre más realista para los estadísticos de los caudales que el método clásico de múltiples conjuntos (ensamble)., [CA] La quantificació de la incertesa predictiva és de vital importància per a produir prediccions hidrològiques confiables que suporten i recolzen la presa de decisions en el marc de la gestió dels recursos hídrics. Els post-processadors hidrològics són eines adequades per a estimar la incertesa predictiva de les prediccions hidrològiques (eixides del model hidrològic). L'objectiu general d'aquesta tesi és millorar els mètodes de post-processament hidrològic per a estimar la incertesa predictiva de cabals mensuals. Els objectius específics d'aquesta tesi són tres. Primer, es proposa i avalua un nou mètode de post-processament anomenat GMM post-processor que consisteix en la combinació de l'esquema de modelatge de probabilitat Bayesiana conjunta i la barreja de Gaussianes múltiples. A més, es compara l'acompliment del post-processador proposat amb altres mètodes tradicionals i ben acceptats en cabals mensuals a través de les dotze conques hidrogràfiques del projecte MOPEX. A partir d'aquest objectiu (capítol 2), trobem que GMM post-processor és el millor per a estimar la incertesa predictiva de cabals mensuals, especialment en conques de clima sec. En segon lloc, es proposa un mètode per a quantificar la incertesa predictiva en el context de post-processament hidrològic quan siga difícil calcular la funció de versemblança (funció de versemblança intractable). Algunes vegades en modelació hidrològica és difícil calcular la funció de versemblança, per exemple, quan es treballa amb models complexos o amb escenaris d'escassa informació com a conques no aforades. Per tant, es proposa l'ABC post-processor que intercanvia l'estimació de la funció de versemblança per l'ús de resums estadístics i dades simulades. D'aquest objectiu específic (capítol 3), es demostra que la distribució predictiva estimada per un mètode exacte (MCMC post-processor) o per un mètode aproximat (ABC post-processor) és similar. Aquest resultat és important perquè treballar amb escassa informació és una característica comuna als estudis hidrològics. Finalment, s'aplica l'ABC post-processor per a estimar la incertesa dels estadístics dels cabals obtinguts des de les projeccions de canvi climàtic. D'aquest objectiu específic (capítol 4), trobem que l'ABC post-processor ofereix projeccions de canvi climàtic més confiables que els 14 models climàtics (sense post-processament). D'igual forma, ABC post-processor produeix bandes d'incertesa més realistes per als estadístics dels cabals que el mètode clàssic d'assemble., [EN] The predictive uncertainty quantification in monthly streamflows is crucial to make reliable hydrological predictions that help and support decision-making in water resources management. Hydrological post-processing methods are suitable tools to estimate the predictive uncertainty of deterministic streamflow predictions (hydrological model outputs). In general, this thesis focuses on improving hydrological post-processing methods for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows. This thesis deal with two issues of the hydrological post-processing scheme i) the heteroscedasticity problem and ii) the intractable likelihood problem. Mainly, this thesis includes three specific aims. First and relate to the heteroscedasticity problem, we develop and evaluate a new post-processing approach, called GMM post-processor, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach and the Gaussian mixture models. Besides, we compare the performance of the proposed post-processor with the well-known exiting post-processors for monthly streamflows across 12 MOPEX catchments. From this aim (chapter 2), we find that the GMM post-processor is the best suited for estimating the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows, especially for dry catchments. Secondly, we introduce a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be challenging to estimate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, especially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. With this aim in mind (chapter 3), we prove that the conditional predictive distribution is similarly produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or the approximate predictive (ABC post-processor), qualitatively speaking. This finding is significant because dealing with scarce information is a common condition in hydrological studies. Finally, we apply the ABC post-processing method to estimate the uncertainty of streamflow statistics obtained from climate change projections, such as a particular case of intractable likelihood problem. From this specific objective (chapter 4), we find that the ABC post-processor approach: 1) offers more reliable projections than 14 climate models (without post-processing); 2) concerning the best climate models during the baseline period, produces more realistic uncertainty bands than the classical multi-model ensemble approach., I would like to thank the Gobernación del Huila Scholarship Program No. 677 (Colombia) for providing the financial support for my PhD research.

[EN] In future years, and due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts will increase in some areas of the planet with water scarcity problems, affecting the reliability and vulnerability of water resource systems (WRS). Therefore, several approaches for real-time drought management were proposed in this study to improve the predictive capacity of currently used methodologies. This study was conducted in the Jucar River Basin, a highly regulated Mediterranean WRS whose experience in drought management is currently based on the combination of a stochastic model for future inflow series generation (using previous historical inflows) and a risk assessment model. Here, the possibility of improving and updating this approach was analysed by proposing three different models that integrate seasonal meteorological forecasts into the series generation process: i) an auto-regressive moving-average model with exogenous variables (ARMAX); ii) a hydrological model (HBV); and iii) an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. These models were also combined (individually) with a risk assessment model to assist in the decision-making process through a very intuitive drought risk indicator for several months in advance. The main results confirmed the potential for improving the predictive capacity of the current method using seasonal forecasts, especially with the ARMAX and ANN models under drought scenarios. Their results were more robust, with lower variabilities and uncertainty even after seven months, which represents a good opportunity to improve the decision-making process of this basin in a changing near future., This research was supported by the RESPHIRA project (PID2019-106322RB-100) financed by the Spanish Research Agency (AEI), MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.

Advanced modeling and control contribute to the design of efficient and sustainable water management strategies, which are challenged by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events often associated with large-scale climate signals, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite ENSO-related information provides a great opportunity to make the operations of water systems more flexible and adaptive, incorporating it into an operating policy still represents a major challenge for optimal control algorithms. In this work, we contribute a framework combining Input Variable Selection techniques for ENSO detection with a data-driven control strategy to use this information for improving the system operations. Our framework is demonstrated on the control of the multipurpose Hoa Binh reservoir (Vietnam), showing that ENSO teleconnection represents a valuable information for addressing the performance tradeoffs between energy production, water supply, and flood protection.

The common practices for the planning and management of Water Resources Systems (WSSs) have been challenged in the last few decades by global climate change processes, which are observed around the world in increasing frequencies. Climate change is manifested by climate variability, temperature increase, and extreme events such as droughts and floods, which have a decisive effect on natural resource availability and in turn on water quality. Historical records may not be sufficient to reliably account for uncertain future predictions under climate change conditions. While such highly uncertain situations become the “normal” case worldwide, the traditional practices of probabilistic risk measures cannot be used to appropriately quantify the uncertain phenomena under non-stationarity conditions. To better account for uncertain future conditions, the objective of this study is to develop a water management model based on Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) using optimization under deep uncertainty conditions. The Info-Gap theory is a framework that measures the confidence in the operational decisions by quantifying the robustness to uncertainty without accounting for any probabilistic data. To demonstrate the method as a tool to better guide the long-term sustainable operation of the water supply system under uncertain future conditions, we applied the Info-Gap model to the Sea of Galilee (SoG) regional WSS, which is a significant part of the Israeli National Water System (INWS). For Israel, which is, like other Middle East semi-arid regions, prone to dry conditions and limited water availability, there are well-founded concerns that prolonged periods of drought lie ahead, as a consequence of the global climate change processes. This study contributes a management tool for decision making under deep uncertainty to improve the decision-making process and better adapt to unpredictable uncertain future conditions. We demonstrate how the IGDT could be formulated and used to analyze WSSs under different settings and demonstrate how decisions could be derived from the IGDT formulation. We also show a sensitivity analysis for the obtained solutions.

River basin planning in Bolivia is a relatively new endeavor that is primed for innovation and learning. One important learning opportunity relates to connecting watershed planning to processes within other planning units (e.g., municipalities) that have water management implications. A second opportunity relates to integrating watershed management, with a focus on land-based interventions, and water resources management, with a focus on the use and control of surface and groundwater resources. Bolivia&rsquo, s River Basin Policy and its primary planning instrument, the River Basin Master Plan (PDC in Spanish), provide the relevant innovation and learning context. Official guidance related to PDC development lacks explicit instructions related to the use of analytical tools, the definition of spatially and temporally dis-aggregated indicators to evaluate specific watershed and water management interventions, and a description of the exact way stakeholders engage in the evaluation process. This paper describes an effort to adapt the tenets of a novel planning support practice, Robust Decision Support (RDS), to the official guidelines of PDC development. The work enabled stakeholders to discern positive and negative interactions among water management interventions related to overall system performance, hydrologic risk management, and ecosystem functions, use indicators across varying spatial and temporal reference frames, and identify management strategies to improve outcomes and mitigate cross-regional or inter-sectorial conflicts.

Global change, that results from population growth, global warming and land use change (especially rapid urbanization), is directly affecting the complexity of water resources management problems and the uncertainty to which they are exposed. Both, the complexity and the uncertainty, are the result of dynamic interactions between multiple system elements within three major systems: (i) the physical environment, (ii) the social environment, and (iii) the constructed infrastructure environment including pipes, roads, bridges, buildings, and other components. Recent trends in dealing with complex water resources systems include consideration of the whole region being affected, explicit incorporation of all costs and benefits, development of a large number of alternative solutions, and the active (early) involvement of all stakeholders in the decision-making. Systems approaches based on simulation, optimization, and multi-objective analyses, in deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy forms, have demonstrated in the last half of last century, a great success in supporting effective water resources management. This paper explores the future opportunities that will utilize advancements in systems theory that might transform management of water resources on a broader scale. The paper presents performance-based water resources engineering as a methodological framework to extend the role of the systems approach in improved sustainable water resources management under changing conditions (with special consideration given to rapid climate destabilization). An illustrative example of a water supply network management under changing conditions is used to convey the basic principles of performance-based water resources engineering methodology.

[EN] New European policies established in the Blueprint (EC, 2012) propose the use of water accounting for the allocation and reservation of water resources. This course correction contrasts with the calculation of water balances that has been used since the last century in Spain for this purpose. According to the European Commission (EC, 2015) the difference between the two approaches is the inclusion of the economic component. This argument is indisputable, but it would also add that both "asset accounts" and the physical supply and use tables require a type of information that had not been considered until now. In view of this new challenge, the use of hydrological and water resources management models is essential. This thesis aims to implement a methodology for the transition between water balances and water accounting considering the special characteristics of the Mediterranean basin (with a high degree of regulation and the use of unconventional resources). In the same line, it raises the need for the definition of an indicator to assess the performance of a water resources system taking into consideration the origin of the water resources as a measure of the degree of stress suffered by the systems. This thesis is presented by publications and seeks to address the methodologies and indicators used to date in the planning and management of water resources. First, the state of the art is analyzed in the first publication of the thesis, as detailed in Annex 1. The second publication, analyzes the key elements for formulating water balances that will determine, to a large extent, results obtained, as detailed in Annex 2. The third publication, in Annex 3, tries to explain how in those basins where the use of water resources is close, or even higher, to their availability, the use of balances based solely on variables such as rainfall and temperature are not sufficient. And due to the high regulation of water resources they should also include the results of water management models. This approach contrasts with the proposals made by the countries of northern Europe focused mainly on hydrological models. In order to address the water accounting approach a pilot case located in the Andalusian Mediterranean basins was analysed. This work is presented in the fourth publication, reproduced in Annex 4. This initial analysis has served to highlight the need to develop a complementary software that allows unify the results of hydrological and water management models for calculating water accounts. The development of this software, which has been called AQUACCOUNTS, and its application to a general case with all the detail required in water resources planning has been published in the fifth article presented in Annex 5, taking the Júcar River Basin as a case study. From these results, a classification of water exploitation systems was carried out according to their degree of stress. These results were compared with the ones in Annex 2 which proposes the use of the indicator of exploitable water resources and which has been obtained with the traditional water balances approach. Finally, Annex 6 includes the last publication of this thesis focused on the effects of climate change in the Po River Basin (Italy) by using water accounting. This work has served to identify those key elements within the simulation models and opens the door to improve them within the approach proposed by the SEEA-W. This thesis aims to collaborate with those responsible for European policies in water resource planning for the application of those methodologies and tools appropriate to each territory., [ES] Las nuevas políticas europeas establecidas en el Blueprint (EC, 2012) proponen el uso de la contabilidad del agua para la asignación y reserva de los recursos. Esta corrección del rumbo (cambio de paradigma) contrasta con el cálculo de balances que se ha venido utilizando desde el siglo pasado en España para dicho fin. Según la Comisión Europea (EC, 2015) la diferencia entre ambos planteamientos se halla en la inclusión de la componente económica. Este argumento es indiscutible, pero habría que añadir además que tanto las "asset accounts" como las tablas físicas de uso y suministro requieren un tipo de información que hasta ahora no se había considerado. A la vista de este nuevo reto, el uso de los modelos hidrológicos y de gestión de los recursos hídricos se hace imprescindible. Con esta tesis se pretende llevar a cabo una metodología que permita la transición entre los balances hídricos y las cuentas del agua teniendo en cuenta las especiales características de las cuencas mediterráneas (con un elevado grado de regulación y el uso de recursos no convencionales). En esta misma línea se plantea la definición de un indicador que trate de discutir el comportamiento conjunto de un sistema de recursos hídricos y que tenga en consideración el origen de los recursos empleados como medida del grado de estrés de los sistemas. Esta tesis se presenta por compendio de publicaciones y trata de abordar las metodologías e indicadores utilizados hasta la fecha en la planificación y gestión de los recursos hídricos. En primer lugar se analiza el estado del arte que constituye la primera publicación de la tesis, tal y como se detalla en el Anexo 1. La segunda publicación, analiza los elementos clave para la formulación de balances que determinarán, en gran medida, los resultados obtenidos, tal y como se detalla en el Anexo 2. La tercera publicación, en el Anexo 3, trata de explicar cómo en las cuencas donde el aprovechamiento de los recursos es cercano o incluso superior a su disponibilidad, el uso de los balances basados únicamente en variables como la precipitación y la temperatura no son suficientes, sino que debido a la alta regulación de los recursos debe recurrirse además a los modelos de gestión. Este planteamiento contrasta con las propuestas planteadas por los países del norte de Europa centrados principalmente en los modelos hidrológicos. Para abordar el tema se ha partido de un caso piloto localizado en las cuencas mediterráneas andaluzas. Este trabajo se presenta en la cuarta publicación, que se reproduce en el Anexo 4. A partir de este análisis inicial, se vio la necesidad de desarrollar un software complementario que permitiese unificar tanto la información de partida como los resultados de los modelos hidrológicos y de gestión para el cálculo de la contabilidad del agua. El desarrollo de este software, que ha sido denominado AQUACCOUNTS, y su aplicación a un caso general con todo el detalle requerido en planificación se ha publicado en el quinto artículo que se presenta en el Anexo 5, siendo la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Júcar el caso de estudio. A partir de los resultados obtenidos se ha llevado a cabo una clasificación de los sistemas de explotación según su grado de desarrollo comparándose con los resultados obtenidos en el Anexo 2 que propone el uso del indicador de recursos explotables y que se ha obtenido con las metodologías tradicionales de balances. Por último, el Anexo 6 recoge la última publicación de esta tesis en la que se analizan los efectos del cambio climático en la cuenca del río Po (Italia) mediante el uso de la contabilidad del agua. Este trabajo ha servido para identificar aquellos elementos clave dentro de los modelos de simulación y abre las puertas a una mejora de los mismos dentro del enfoque planteado por el SEEA-W. Esta tesis pretende colaborar con los responsables de las políticas europeas en materia de planificación para la apl, [CA] Les noves polítiques europees establides en el Blueprint (EC, 2012) proposen l'ús de la comptabilitat de l'aigua per a l'assignació i reserva dels recursos hídrics. Esta correcció del rumb (o canvi de paradigma) contrasta amb el càlcul de balanços que s'ha utilitzat des del segle passat a Espanya per a aquesta finalitat. Segons la Comissió Europea (EC, 2015) la diferència entre ambdós plantejaments es troba en la inclusió de la component econòmica. Este argument és indiscutible, però caldria afegir a més que tant les "asset accounts" com les taules físiques d'ús i subministrament requerixen un tipus d'informació que fins ara no s'havia considerat. A la vista d'este nou repte, l'ús dels models hidrològics i de gestió dels recursos hídrics es fa imprescindible. Amb esta tesi es pretén dur a terme una metodologia que permeta la transició entre els balanços hídrics i els comptes de l'aigua tenint en compte les especials característiques de les conques mediterrànies (amb un elevat grau de regulació i l'ús de recursos no convencionals). En esta mateixa línia es planteja la definició d'un indicador que tracte de discutir el comportament conjunt d'un sistema de recursos hídrics i que tinga en consideració l'origen dels recursos empleats com a mesura del grau d'estrés dels sistemes. Esta tesi es presenta per compendi de publicacions i tracta d'abordar les metodologies i indicadors utilitzats fins a la data en la planificació i gestió dels recursos hídrics. En primer lloc s'analitza l'estat de l'art que constituïx la primera publicació de la tesi, tal com es detalla en l'Annex 1. La segona publicació, analitza els elements clau per a la formulació de balanços que determinaran, en gran manera, els resultats obtinguts, tal com es detalla en l'Annex 2. La tercera publicació, en l'Annex 3, tracta d'explicar com en les conques on l'aprofitament dels recursos és pròxim o inclús superior a la seua disponibilitat, l'ús dels balanços basats únicament en variables com la precipitació i la temperatura no són suficients, sinó que a causa de l'alta regulació dels recursos ha de recórrer-se a més als models de gestió. Este plantejament contrasta amb les propostes plantejades pels països del nord d'Europa centrats principalment en el models hidrològics. Per a abordar el tema s'ha partit d'un cas pilot localitzat en les conques mediterrànies andaluses. Este treball es presenta en la quarta publicació, que es reproduïx en l'Annex 4. A partir d'aquest anàlisi inicial, es va veure la necessitat de desenrotllar una ferramenta complementaria que permetera unificar tant la informació de partida com els resultats dels models hidrològics i de gestió per al càlcul de la comptabilitat de l'aigua. El desenrotllament d'esta ferramenta, que ha sigut denominat AQUACCOUNTS, i la seua aplicació a un cas general amb tot el detall requerit en planificació s'ha publicat en el quint article que es presenta en l'Annex 5, sent la Demarcació Hidrogràfica del Xúquer el cas d'estudi. A partir dels resultats obtinguts s'ha dut a terme una classificació dels sistemes d'explotació segons el seu grau de desenrotllament comparant-se amb els resultats obtinguts en l'Annex 2 que proposa l'ús de l'indicador de recursos explotables i que s'ha obtingut amb les metodologies tradicionals de balanços. Finalment, l'Annex 6 arreplega l'última publicació d'esta tesi en què s'analitzen els efectes del canvi climàtic en la conca del riu Po (Itàlia) per mitjà de l'ús de la comptabilitat de l'aigua. Este treball ha servit per a identificar aquells elements clau dins dels models de simulació i obri les portes a una millora dels mateixos dins de l'enfocament plantejat pel SEEA-W. Esta tesi pretén col·laborar amb els responsables de les polítiques europees en matèria de planificació per a l'aplicació d'aquelles metodologies i ferramentes més adequades a cada territori.

Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-04-13T20:32:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 THIAGO CABRAL NEPOMUCENO – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGECA) 2018.pdf: 5961539 bytes, checksum: ea3a80835b67c0d1615b111f56921a4a (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-13T20:32:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 THIAGO CABRAL NEPOMUCENO – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGECA) 2018.pdf: 5961539 bytes, checksum: ea3a80835b67c0d1615b111f56921a4a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-27 Capes O lançamento de efluentes domésticos em ambientes aquáticos sem o devido tratamento vem comprometendo a qualidade da água de reservatórios e rios. Esta torna-se ainda mais relevante quando, em torno desses corpos hídricos superficiais, existe uma intensa prática agrícola, com aplicação de fertilizantes a base de nitrogênio e fósforo, onde a ocorrência de eventos chuvosos pode gerar escoamento superficial e encaminhar o excesso desses nutrientes presentes no solo para os rios e reservatórios próximos. Portanto, o presente trabalho propôs o desenvolvimento e aplicação de um modelo para simulação de nitrogênio e fósforo em sistemas de recursos hídricos, que permita simular a interação de rios, reservatórios e áreas agrícolas em termos desses parâmetros de qualidade de água. No arranjo estrutural do modelo desenvolvido, duas etapas metodológicas merecem destaque, são elas: modelagem de nitrogênio e fósforo nas áreas agrícolas, considerando os principais fluxos de entrada e saída desses macronutrientes no solo, e definição dos sistemas de equações diferenciais ordinárias que possam representar a dinâmica comportamental de nitrogênio e fósforo nos corpos hídricos, ou seja, rios e reservatórios integrantes de um determinado sistema estudado. Como estudo de caso, foi selecionado um sistema de recursos hídricos localizado na unidade de planejamento hidrológico do Alto Piranhas-PB, compreendendo áreas agrícolas, rios e reservatórios, juntamente com as principais contribuições de nutrientes para o respectivo sistema, além de ser levado em consideração o aporte das águas da transposição do rio São Francisco, proveniente do Eixo Norte da transposição. Para a aplicação do modelo desenvolvido, foram analisados cenários que possibilitassem uma melhor avaliação da resposta do sistema estudado ao lançamento dos efluentes domésticos e agrícolas, além do impacto das águas da transposição. Os resultados das simulações indicaram que os recursos hídricos analisados são sensíveis a ação dos efluentes domésticos e agrícolas, principalmente nos períodos de seca, onde o volume dos reservatórios e vazões nos trechos dos rios são reduzidos. Com o acréscimo das águas da transposição, foram observadas atenuações significativas nos níveis de nitrogênio e fósforo nos corpos hídricos, devido ao maior poderio de diluição dos efluentes proporcionado por esse aporte hídrico, embora foram observados níveis críticos em alguns meses. Desta forma, medidas preventivas e corretivas devem ser adotadas a esse tipo de sistema, de maneira a evitar o comprometimento da biota aquática e dos múltiplos usos as quais as águas estão destinadas. The release of domestic effluents in aquatic environments without the proper treatment has compromised the water quality of reservoirs and rivers. This becomes even more relevant when, around these surface water bodies, there is an intense agricultural practice, with the use of nitrogen and phosphorus base fertilizers, where the occurrence of rainfall events can generate runoff and return the excess nutrients present in the soil to nearby rivers and reservoirs. Therefore, this work proposed the development and application of a model for simulation of nitrogen and phosphorus in water resources systems, allowing the interaction of rivers, reservoirs and agricultural areas in terms of water quality parameters. In the structural arrangement of the developed model, two methodological steps are worth mentioning: nitrogen and phosphorus modeling in agricultural areas, considering the main input and output flows of these macronutrients in the soil, and definition of the systems of ordinary differential equations that can represent the behavioral dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water bodies, ie, rivers and reservoirs that are part of a given system studied. As a case study, a water resource system was selected, located in the Alto Piranhas-PB hydrological planning unit, comprising agricultural areas, rivers and reservoirs, together with the main nutrient contributions to the respective system, besides being taken into account the contribution of the waters of the transposition of the São Francisco river, coming from the Eixo Norte of the transposition. For the application of the developed model, scenarios were analyzed to enable a better evaluation of the response of the studied system to the release of domestic and agricultural effluents, besides the impact of the transposition waters. The results of the simulations indicated that the analyzed water resources are sensitive to the action of domestic and agricultural effluents, mainly in periods of drought, where the volume of the reservoirs and flows in the stretches of the rivers are reduced. With the addition of the transposition waters, significant attenuations were observed in the nitrogen and phosphorus levels in the water bodies, due to the higher dilution power of the effluents provided by this water supply, although critical levels were observed in some months. Therefore, preventive and corrective measures should be adopted for this type of system in order to avoid compromising the aquatic biota and the multiple uses to which the waters are destined.

Advances in modeling and control have always played an important role in supporting water resources systems planning and management. Changes in climate and society are now introducing additional challenges for controlling these systems, motivating the emergence of complex, integrated simulation models to explore key causal relationships and dependences related to uncontrolled sources of variability. In this brief, we contribute a massively parallel implementation of the evolutionary multiobjective direct policy search method for controlling large-scale water resources systems under uncertainty. The method combines direct policy search with nonlinear approximating networks and a hierarchical parallelization of the Borg multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. This computational framework successfully identifies control policies that address both the presence of multidimensional tradeoffs and severe uncertainties in the system dynamics and policy performance. We demonstrate the approach on a challenging real-world application, represented by the optimal control of a network of four multipurpose water reservoirs in the Red River basin in Northern Vietnam, under observed and synthetically generated hydrologic conditions. Results show that the reliability of the computational framework in finding near-optimal solutions increases with the number of islands in the adopted hierarchical parallelization scheme. This setting reduces the vulnerabilities of the designed solutions to the system’s uncertainty and improves the discovery of robust control policies addressing key system performance tradeoffs.

The paper presents the methodological framework for the analysis of the Drina River basin water resources system under different development and climate scenarios. Within this methodological framework, a water management model of the Drina River basin is developed using the WEAP modelling software. The model describes the Drina River basin as a complex water resources system, which includes the natural water balance components and water demand by the users in the basin (municipal, industrial and agricultural water supply, reservoirs and hydropower facilities). Data on the natural hydrologic input is provided from a separate hydrologic model. The water management model serves as a tool for simulating water balance in the basin and for evaluating the system performance by analysing the effects of different planned facilities under the impact of climate change. Several different development options in terms of new hydropower facilities are considered, as well as two climate change scenarios. The paper describes the development and the application of the Drina River basin water management model, while the results are evaluated by analysing the reliability of water supply, hydroenergy production and reliability of the environmental flow requirements. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the abilities and limitations of modelling the water resources systems using the WEAP tool. U radu je prikazan metodološki okvir za analizu rada vodoprivrednog sistema sliva reke Drine pod pretpostavkom različitih razvojnih i klimatskih scenarija. U okviru ovog metodološkog okvira razvijen je vodoprivredni model sliva Drine korišćenjem softvera WEAP. Model opisuje sliv Drine kao složeni vodoprivredni sistem, u koji su uključeni prirodni hidrološki bilans i potrebe korisnika voda na slivu (snabdevanje stanovništva, industrije i poljoprivrede vodom, akumulacije i hidro-energetske objekte). Podaci o prirodnim protocima na slivu obezbeđuju se iz odvojenog hidrološkog modela. Vodoprivredni model služi kao alat za simulaciju vodoprivrednog bilansa na slivu i vrednovanje sistema, tj. sagledavanje efekata različitih planiranih objekata u uslovima klimatskih promena. Razmatrano je više razvojnih scenarija sa gledišta uključivanja novih hidro-energetskih objekata, kao i dva klimatska scenarija. Rad opisuje razvoj i primenu vodoprivrednog modela Drine, a rezultati se analiziraju kroz obezbeđenost isporuke vode korisnicima, proizvodnju električne energije i obezbeđenost zahtevanih minimalnih ekoloških protoka. Cilj rada je da demonstrira mogućnosti i ograničenja modeliranja vodoprivrednih sistema sa softverom WEAP.

This is the introductory lecture to a Water Resource Systems and Management class from Spring 2017 at the University of Colorado Boulder, by Joseph Kasprzyk. Learning goals include (i) defining integrated water resources management, (ii) identifying Colorado water management issues (ii) identifying how RiverWare simulation and optimization can be used to develop water plans (iii) use the HyMod model to perform rainfall-runoff modeling (iv) generating random parameter samples and understanding how parameter uncertainty affects model results.