Methodological note. Live births resulting from unintended pregnancies: an evaluation of synthetic state-based estimates.

Objectives: Most states lack information on the proportion of live births resulting from unintended pregnancies. We evaluated a potential solution to the lack of data, a synthetic state-based estimate of the percentage of live births resulting from unintended pregnancies for the state of Georgia. Methods: We constructed the synthetic estimate by standardizing the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth data by the race, marital status, and age distribution of Georgia residents ages 15-44 years who delivered a live birth during 1990-1994. Two surveys conducted in Georgia during the same period that collected information on unintended pregnancies were used for comparison: the Georgia Women's Health Survey (GWHS) and the Georgia Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS). Results: The synthetic estimate (35.2%, 95% CI = 33.5%-36.7%) was not statistically different from the GWHS estimate (39.6%, 95% CI = 35.7%-43.5%), but was significantly lower than the Georgia PRAMS estimate (49.0%, 95% CI = 45.5%-52.5%). When we stratified by race, marital status, and age, the synthetic and GWHS estimates were statistically similar except for married females and females ages 25-34 years, for whom the synthetic estimates were lower. For all groups of females, the synthetic estimates were statistically lower than the Georgia PRAMS estimates. Conclusions: The synthetic estimate can be a useful method for states that need to know the overall magnitude of the percentage of live births resulting from unintended pregnancy for purposes such as program planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]