Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarías: Un análisis empírico.

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan Ramón (2003), and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power for currency crises in a selection of countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]