THE HISTORICAL ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT OF MANKIND FROM 10,000 BC TO TODAY.

Authors have developed a GDP/EF correlation function and calculated the ecological footprint (EF) from 10.000 B.C. till 1960, using historical statistics, with the method of backcasting¹. In all major indicators growth patterns have been dominating, not only since the industrial revolution, but in the known history of mankind. From data since 1961, we calculate the correlation between GDP and the ecological footprint. Using existing historical statistics and these calculations, we are able to determine long time data series of population, GDP, biocapacity and EF. Examining these numbers in specific periods (transition points or jumps) give three interesting results. First: the main drive of growth is not population anymore, but consumption of the developed economies. Second: we are probably turning to an era of balance: we identified a seventh jump between the 1930s and 1970s. Third and most of all: our guiding paradigm legitimizing growth (from the late 18th century) should be revisited, to enable a calm transition to the post-capitalist age. Because in the time of establishing our mainstream paradigm, Earth was roughly 10 per cent full,² in 2008 this figure is over 150 per cent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]