International Commerce, Power Convergence, and Conflict Incentives: Why Economic Integration Can Cause Major Power War.

What impact do international economic conditions have on the likelihood of major power war? This paper addresses this longstanding question by starting from the contemporary empirical observation that the rise of emerging great powers - most notably, China and India - has been driven, at least in part, by the current wave of economic globalization. With this backdrop, the paper asks a specific question: Does a move towards deeper international economic integration foster a change in international power configurations that subsequently results in an increased chance of major power conflict? Liberal IR theory has traditionally seen economic interdependence as a force for international stability. Yet realist theory tends to see shifts in the balance of power as a cause of war. The paper constructs a theoretical argument that unites economic theory on the differential growth impact of trade, financial flows and technology diffusion with realist arguments on the conflict implications of polarity shifts and dynamic power differentials. It then tests the argument using evidence from the 1870-1914 period. The paper concludes that economic integration can indeed drive a rapid shift in the balance of power, and that it can consequently be a potent underlying driver of major war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]