Weak State or Poor Geography? Explaining Kyrgyzstan's 2010 Revolution.

Kyrgyzstan's recent violent revolution and presidential turnover foreground the subtle ways natural resources and poverty spark political disturbance. Of the socioeconomic problems and corruption for which President Bakiev was faulted, water resource mismanagement and the electricity crisis were central; they are also at the core of regional disputes and mirrored in neighboring Tajikistan's and Afghanistan's socioeconomic instability. Kyrgyzstan's April 2010 events help us explain under what conditions environmental issues lead to collective violence. By analyzing environmental security concerns, this study provides insight about future regional conflict potential and whether the weakness of the Kyrgyz state or geographical and resource limitations best explain these revolutionary events. This paper evaluates environmentally-related collective violence by identifying public and elite opinion and mobilization trends, reporting the findings of research conducted in Kyrgyzstan one year prior to (Jan-July 2009) and three months after (June-July 2010) the revolution. The following propositions in the collective action and social capital literatures are tested: the consistency and specificity in attributing blame for environmental problems, derived from blame attribution theory (Wilson 1961; Lichbach 1995; Javeline 2003); the visibility, complexity and salience of environmental problems and the grievance actor hypothesis; and the role of community organizers and entrepreneurs (Olson 1965). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]