Sub-National or Imperial Challenge? The Changing Profile of the Post-Soviet Frozen Conflicts.

This paper analyzes the threat represented by the 20-year old post-Soviet frozen conflicts to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. This threat is twofold. On the one hand, the three republics have to face a sub-national challenge. The breakaway enclaves of Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh have developed de facto states pursuing coherent state-building projects. This has hampered seriously the development of the three former Soviet republics. However, there is also an imperial dimension. Moscow has been a decisive actor that provided the secessionists with military, political, moral, economic, and financial support. Using the case study of Transnistria, this paper explores the consequence of major recent changes undergone by all relevant actors. Moldova democratized. The Transnistrian regime is experiencing a serious legitimacy crisis. The European Union has become increasingly involved in the region. And Russia perceives Brussels' actions targeting Moldova as an overt intrusion in its own sphere of influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]