Relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing based on multi-source data.

The PM 2.5 problem is proving to be a major public crisis and is of great public-concern requiring an urgent response. Information about, and prediction of PM 2.5 from the perspective of atmospheric dynamic theory is still limited due to the complexity of the formation and development of PM 2.5 . In this paper, we attempted to realize the relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM 2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China, using multi-source data mining. A correlation analysis model of PM 2.5 to physical data (meteorological data, including regional average rainfall, daily mean temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, and other pollutant concentration data, including CO, NO 2 , SO 2 , PM 10 ) and social media data (microblog data) was proposed, based on the Multivariate Statistical Analysis method. The study found that during these factors, the value of average wind speed, the concentrations of CO, NO 2 , PM 10 , and the daily number of microblog entries with key words ‘Beijing; Air pollution’ show high mathematical correlation with PM 2.5 concentrations. The correlation analysis was further studied based on a big data's machine learning model- Back Propagation Neural Network (hereinafter referred to as BPNN) model. It was found that the BPNN method performs better in correlation mining. Finally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (hereinafter referred to as ARIMA) Time Series model was applied in this paper to explore the prediction of PM 2.5 in the short-term time series. The predicted results were in good agreement with the observed data. This study is useful for helping realize real-time monitoring, analysis and pre-warning of PM 2.5 and it also helps to broaden the application of big data and the multi-source data mining methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]