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Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment.
- Source :
-
Advances in Space Research . Jan2017, Vol. 59 Issue 1, p193-211. 19p. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and un-controlled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 02731177
- Volume :
- 59
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Advances in Space Research
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 120277883
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2016.08.032