Canyon or mirage?

The author comments on the digital divide as a symptom of inequality, rather than the cause. The digital divide is almost always described in terms of the difference in the number of telephones, internet users or computers per head in rich and poor countries. But the difference in the availability of information and communication technologies (ICTs) is the focus of particular concern among policymakers, academics and non-governmental organisations. The far wider availability of ICTs in rich countries, goes the argument, will therefore enable the rich to get richer, while the poor are left behind. In short, not only is there a worrying "digital divide" between rich and poor, the divide is widening--with ominous consequences. But a new paper by two economists at the World Bank, Carsten Fink and Charles Kenny, questions the logic of this argument. The authors conclude that the divide's size and importance have been overstated, and that current trends suggest that it is actually shrinking, not growing--which means policies designed to "bridge the digital divide" may need rethinking. ICTs might have less impact on productivity in poor countries than in rich countries because of lower adoption levels. It is possible, for example, that a certain threshold level of adoption is required before the productivity benefits of ICTs kick in. The adoption of ICTs within poor countries may be hugely unequal, and limited to a relatively affluent minority, so that the digital divide within countries may grow even as the digital divide between countries shrinks. Moreover, rich countries with high penetration of ICTs may be more likely to do business online with other such countries, at the expense of poor countries. Well, perhaps, but it seems far more likely that access to ICTs will, overall, enlarge poor countries' trading opportunities. And as the authors suggest, growing access to ICTs will improve their plight.