基于随机滤波模型的老年人剩余寿命预测.

Although activities of daily living (ADL) is an important indicator of the health status of the elderly, the rigorous quantitative studies of the relation hip between it and the residual life has been well studied. According to t he panel survey data of the elderly aged from 55 upward from China health and nutrition survey, we constructed a stochastic filtering model to predict the residual life based on ADL. Then, the goodness-of-fit test was carried out to test the model. The resuIt demonstrates that the ADL which is closely related to health status can be well used in residual life prediction when biochemical markers are not available in most cases. It provides a scientific basis for paying attention to the ADL of the elderly which is advocated by population health management and an important reference for determining premiums by life insurance companies through the ADL of the elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]