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Predicting the spread of all invasive forest pests in the United States.
- Source :
-
Ecology Letters . Apr2017, Vol. 20 Issue 4, p426-435. 10p. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- We tested whether a general spread model could capture macroecological patterns across all damaging invasive forest pests in the United States. We showed that a common constant dispersal kernel model, simulated from the discovery date, explained 67.94% of the variation in range size across all pests, and had 68.00% locational accuracy between predicted and observed locational distributions. Further, by making dispersal a function of forest area and human population density, variation explained increased to 75.60%, with 74.30% accuracy. These results indicated that a single general dispersal kernel model was sufficient to predict the majority of variation in extent and locational distribution across pest species and that proxies of propagule pressure and habitat invasibility - well-studied predictors of establishment - should also be applied to the dispersal stage. This model provides a key element to forecast novel invaders and to extend pathway-level risk analyses to include spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *MACROECOLOGY
*ECOLOGY
*FOREST pest control
*DISPERSAL (Ecology)
*FORESTS & forestry
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1461023X
- Volume :
- 20
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Ecology Letters
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 122048123
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12741