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Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides.

Authors :
Piciullo, Luca
Gariano, Stefano
Melillo, Massimo
Brunetti, Maria
Peruccacci, Silvia
Guzzetti, Fausto
Calvello, Michele
Source :
Landslides. Jun2017, Vol. 14 Issue 3, p995-1008. 14p.
Publication Year :
2017

Abstract

A process chain for the definition and the performance assessment of an operational regional warning model for rainfall-induced landslides, based on rainfall thresholds, is proposed and tested in a landslide-prone area in the Campania region, southern Italy. A database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall threshold equations are defined applying a well-known frequentist method to all the reconstructed rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides in the area of analysis. Several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities (percentiles) are evaluated, and nine different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, for each combination, the issuing of warning levels is computed by comparing, over time, the measured rainfall with the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system, i.e. the one providing the best model performance in terms of success and error indicators, is selected employing the 'event, duration matrix, performance' (EDuMaP) method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
1612510X
Volume :
14
Issue :
3
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Landslides
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
123085486
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0750-2