An Iterative Method for Determining the Most Probable Bifurcation in Large Scale Power Systems.

An iterative method is presented to determine the most probable voltage stability limit by identifying the closest saddle node bifurcation in a probability-loading space starting at the expected initial system state. The iterative method is applied to the probability space to identify the closest saddle node bifurcation by means of the Mahalanobis distance. Further the method provides an ellipsoidal load subspace corresponding to the most probable bifurcation. This ellipsoid is a lower bound for the probability of bifurcation. To verify the proposed methodology examples are given and the minimum Mahalanobis distance, for dependent and independent load patterns, is compared with the minimum Euclidian distance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]