Understanding China's industrial CO2 emissions: A comprehensive decomposition framework.

Because industrial sector in China is energy-intensive, clarifying the main factors driving CO 2 emissions in this sector is of great importance for the carbon emission reduction and further sustainable development of China's economy. This paper combines production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) and index decomposition analysis (IDA) to decompose China's industrial CO 2 emission changes into seven factors: energy mix change, potential energy intensity change, economic activity, energy usage efficiency, energy saving technology change, GDP technical efficiency, and GDP technology change. The main findings are as follows: (1) during 2000–2015, industrial CO 2 emissions increased 2.6560 times, economic activity was the largest contributor to increasing industrial CO 2 emissions but varied significantly across provinces. (2) GDP technology change and potential energy intensity change were the dominant contributors to industrial CO 2 mitigation. However, in several western provinces, potential energy intensity change played a positive role in increasing CO 2 emissions. Therefore, local governments should adopt effective measures to improve technology levels in western provinces. (3) Energy-saving technology change also led to a reduction in CO 2 emissions in most provinces, although its inhibiting effect was very small (annual average decrease rates were less than 3%). (4) Energy mix change, energy usage efficiency, and GDP technical efficiency played insignificant roles in affecting industrial CO 2 emissions and had mixed results across provinces. This detailed information about the factors driving industrial CO 2 emissions will be important for central and local governments in China in formulating emission-reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]