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Defining and Predicting Heat Waves in Bangladesh.
- Source :
-
Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology . Oct2017, Vol. 56 Issue 10, p2653-2670. 18p. 2 Charts, 7 Graphs, 6 Maps. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWS requires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes and forecastable. No such definition has been developed for Bangladesh. Using a generalized additive regression model, a heat-wave definition is proposed that requires elevated minimum and maximum daily temperatures over the 95th percentile for 3 consecutive days, confirming the importance of nighttime conditions for health impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during heat waves; this result can be used as an argument for public-health interventions to prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability of these heat waves exists from weather to seasonal time scales, offering opportunities for a range of preparedness measures. Heat waves are associated with an absence of normal premonsoonal rainfall brought about by anomalously strong low-level westerly winds and weak southerlies, detectable up to approximately 10 days in advance. This circulation pattern occurs over a background of drier-than-normal conditions, with below-average soil moisture and precipitation throughout the heat-wave season from April to June. Low soil moisture increases the odds of heat-wave occurrence for 10-30 days, indicating that subseasonal forecasts of heat-wave risk may be possible by monitoring soil-moisture conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *HEAT waves (Meteorology)
*CLIMATE change
*SOIL moisture
*DEATH rate
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15588424
- Volume :
- 56
- Issue :
- 10
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 126890316
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0035.1