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Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates.
- Source :
-
Energy Journal . May2018, Vol. 39 Issue 3, p25-49. 25p. - Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on U.S. state-level unemployment rates. First, using a test of symmetry, I evaluate whether the relationship between oil prices and state unemployment rates is symmetric. I find no evidence against the null of symmetry after accounting for data mining. Second, I use a symmetric structural VAR model to analyze the effect of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks on state unemployment. I find that an adverse supply shock triggers increases in unemployment, whereas a positive aggregate demand shock reduces the unemployment rate across most U.S. states. I also show that oil-specific demand shocks have little effect on state unemployment. Finally, I dig into the historical contribution of the various oil shocks to the changes in state unemployment rates during the shale boom period. I find that aggregate demand shocks contributed the most to the change of unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01956574
- Volume :
- 39
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Energy Journal
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 131227285
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.39.3.mkar