Mapping the potential distributions of etiological agent, vectors, and reservoirs of Japanese Encephalitis in Asia and Australia.

Highlights • The study developed a detailed picture of the geographic potential of Japanese encephalitis vectors and reservoirs. • We presented transmission risk maps for Japanese encephalitis across Asia and Australia. • The study developed a forecasting model for areas at risk of Japanese encephalitis occurrence. • Environmental overlap occurred between Japanese encephalitis virus, vectors, and reservoirs. • The study predicted most independent cases collected by the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Abstract Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a substantial cause of viral encephalitis, morbidity, and mortality in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. World Health Organization recognized Japanese Encephalitis (JE) as a public health priority in demands to initiate active vaccination programs. Recently, the geographic distribution of JEV has apparently expanded into other areas in the Pacific islands and northern Australia; however, major gaps exist in knowledge in regard to its current distribution. Here, we mapped the potential distribution of mosquito vectors of JEV (Culex tritaeniorhynchus , Cx. pseudovishnui , Cx. vishnui , Cx. fuscocephala , Cx. gelidus), and reservoirs (Egretta garzetta , E. intermedia , Nycticorax nycticorax) based on ecological niche modeling approach. Ecological niche models predicted all species to occur across Central, South and South East Asia; however, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus , E. garzetta , E. intermedia , and N. nycticorax had broader potential distributions extending west to parts of the Arabian Peninsula. All predictions were robust and significantly better than random (P < 0.001). We also tested the JEV prediction based on 4335 additional independent human case records collected by the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP); 4075 cases were successfully predicted by the model (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the ecological niche similarity among JEV, vector, and reservoir species and could not reject any of the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all combination pairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]