Estimating genetic parameters of DSSAT-CERES model with the GLUE method for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production.

Highlights • Dynamic model of the DSSAT-CERES model for wheat production. • GLUE with a systematic approach for well calibrating parameters in DSSAT-CERES model. • Crop variables in time series were in agreement with measured values. • DSSAT-CERES model as optimization management tool in agriculture. Abstract Crop growth models integrate genotype, environment and management and can serve as an analytical tool by which to study the influences of these factors on crop growth, production, and agricultural planning. Parameter calibration is the primary step taken before the local application of crop growth models. In this study, experimental field data were collected by way of a five-year (2008–2013) set of field experiments at a field site in Beijing, China. The DSSAT-CERES model was calibrated by integrating the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and a systematic approach, and used experimental data relating to two seasons 2009/2010 and 2012/2013. The calibrated model was evaluated for its prediction performance using experimental data relating to the three seasons 2008/2009, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012. The results showed that the GLUE method can accurately estimate the genotype parameters of wheat; that the simulated leaf area index (LAI), aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground nitrogen (AGN) and grain yield (GY) were close to the measured values; and that the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model can be used to schedule wheat seed sowing dates, and optimize N fertilizer application in areas around Beijing. In general, the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model was proved to be a useful decision-making tool for winter wheat production in the Beijing area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]