Prediction of CH4 emissions from potential natural wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century.

Abstract The alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are ecosystems vulnerable to global climate change. It has been recognized that future climate change may have a significant impact on methane (CH 4) emissions from the plateau, while less attention has been paid to predicting temporal and spatial variations in CH 4 emissions from TP natural wetlands. In this study, we used an integrated model framework based on the CH4MOD wetland , TOPMODEL and TEM models to predict CH 4 emissions from potential natural wetlands on the TP under IPCC AR5 scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The model estimates suggest that the mean area-weighted CH 4 fluxes will increase from 4.45 ± 0.42 g m−2 yr−1 in 2006 to 4.79 ± 0.72, 5.99 ± 0.85 and 11.53 ± 1.33 g m−2 yr−1 under 3 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios), respectively, by 2100. The dominant drivers stimulating CH 4 emissions are air temperature, precipitation and net primary productivity (NPP). Spatially, CH 4 fluxes and emissions showed a decreasing trend from south to north and from east to west. In response to climate change, a total of 0.42 ± 0.06, 0.54 ± 0.09 and 1.01 ± 0.12 Tg yr−1 of CH 4 emissions will be emitted from the TP's potential natural wetlands by the end of this century under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • An integrated model framework based on CH4MOD wetland , TOPMODEL and TEM was established. • CH 4 fluxes will increase by 7.6%, 27.0% and 124.5% under CMIP5 scenarios by 2100. • The dominant drivers for stimulating CH 4 fluxes are the temperature, precipitation and NPP. • CH 4 fluxes showed decreasing trend from south to north, east to west. • The potential natural wetlands on TP will emit 0.42–1.01 Tg CH 4 under CMIP5 scenarios by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]