中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析.

Tropical cyclone(TC) is the most harmful weather system in China,so analyzing and understanding the new characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. In accordance with the meteorological data of the past 70 years,the characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs are studied by utilizing statistical methods. The results illustrate that there is obviously varying in characteristics of Chinese coastal landfall TCs under the circumstances of climate change. The frequency of landfall typhoon is higher than that of previous years,the intensity and maximum value are increasing and the instability of annual mean intensity is growing in recent years. It is also found that the higher the intensity of TC is,the narrower the latitudinal zone of TC generation is,and the closer it is to the equator. The relationship named"φ—m"is established between the time and latitude of high intensity TCs(STY & SUPER TY),and it is verified that the length of typhoon season is negatively correlated with the first cyclone day and is not affected by El Ni1 o phenomenon. The length of typhoon season is conformed to normal distribution and its probability density formula is given in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]