一种基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则.

Since there is no consensus about how to assign weights in Global Circulation Model(GCM) ensemble,this paper uses the Dempster-Shafer(DS) evidence theory to synthesize the following three the basic probability assignment(BPA) methods:the equal probability,the probability for statistic characteristics of the mean annual inflow,and the probability based on the relative monthly inflow variation.Then,DS evidence theory-based Adaptive Operating Rules(DS-AOR) are derived,in order to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change.The objective is to maximize the weighted average annual hydropower generation for all future scenario,and then the Simulation-Based Optimization(SBO) method is implemented to optimize the parameters of DS-AOR.The case study of the Jinxi Reservoir shows that:under uncertain future climate change,DS-AOR is an effective and robust strategy.Compared with Historical Operating Rules(HOR) and adaptive operating rules based on Equal Weights(EW-AOR),DS-AOR results in an increase in hydropower benefits by 0.76×108 kWh and 0.61×108 kWh,and an increase in hydropower reliability by 0.5%-11.17% and 3.50%-9.34%,respectively,and it performs more robustly.It is concluded that DS-AOR facilitates adaptive reservoir management under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]