The multiple effectiveness of state natural gas consumption constraint policies for achieving sustainable development targets in China.

Highlights • A Markov chain prediction method is embodied in dynamic CGE model. • Energy consumption intensity target shall be achieved under scenario shock. • Carbon emission intensity declined within scenario implement. • Electricity generation used gas plays a pivotal role in optimizing structure. Abstract The global 2030 agenda for promoting clean energy development explicitly calls for the implementation of official policy related to sustainable development. China pledged to formulate an energy structure that focuses on non-fossil energy and natural gas towards 2030. Natural gas is therefore entering a new critical and potentially advantageous development stage. Optimizing the utilization structure in a scientific manner can be regarded as the significant means to increase natural gas consumption in order to achieve the targets upon 2020 and 2030. In this study, what ultimately matters from a sustainable lens is not whether the future natural gas consumption increases but rather whether the restricted and limited proven reserves should be arranged and utilized to reach the best effectiveness on economy-energy-environment system to further ensure sustainable development. Herein, with aims to offering operationally actionable-related insights on the optimal natural gas consumption pathways for policy governors, this paper examined the multiple effectiveness of a spectrum of representing indicators selected from the economy-energy-environment system in China under natural gas consumption structure constraint policy scenarios using a dynamic CGE approach and Markov Chains forecasting technique. Consequently, this study recommends one optimal natural gas consumption structure scenario to policy governors given its comprehensive effectiveness in promoting sustainable development in China according to horizontal and vertical comparative analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]