Assessment of the potential and distribution of an energy crop at 1-km resolution from 2010 to 2100 in China – The case of sweet sorghum.

Highlights • Yield per hectare of sweet sorghum are influence by temperature and precipitation. • Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are suitable for planting sweet sorghum. • The 2020 and 2050 biofuel goal can be satisfied by certain scenarios in this paper. • Climate change and land-use change are critical to energy crop development plan. Abstract Biofuel from energy crops will play an important role in supplying carbon-neutral fuel for the transport sector. However, there are large uncertainties regarding energy crop development and the energy crop potential and distribution need to be evaluated more comprehensively and systematically. In this study, we propose an integrated approach using the AquaCrop model, a geographic information system approach, and a scenario analysis and we conduct a land availability assessment with multiple factors including climate change, land use, soil, topography, regional crop management, and technological improvement to shed light on the potential production, distribution, and temporal-spatial variation of land suitable for sweet sorghum production in China. We evaluate a full range of spatial scales from 1-km resolution to a national assessment in four representative concentration pathways from 2010 to 2100. The results show that most provinces can plant sweet sorghum. The most suitable provinces for sweet sorghum production are Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The biofuel potential of sweet sorghum in high-slope farmland (0.30–0.73 EJ) and marginal land (11.98–15.18 EJ) can satisfy the biofuel goal in 2020 (0.12 EJ) and 2050 (6.70–8.60 EJ). Climate change and land-use change are critical factors influencing for the current implementation and long-term planning of energy crops in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]