تطورات الدور الروسي في الشرق الأوسط مطلع القرن الحادي والعشرين

The development in Russian foreign policy since President Putin assumed the power in March 2000 raised very important questions with regard to the scope of the Russian role in the Middle East and whether it represents the evolution of a new active Russian role in the region? The paper shall address these questions as well as many others, through discussing the trends and the main features of Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, which are represented as follows: 1- The Middle East’s Position in the priorities of Russian foreign policy is still receded as Putin gives the high priority to the West and Asia. 2- Russia has limited interests in the Middle East represented in activating arms trade and increasing Russian exports to the region, and attracting investments and capital to Russia. 3- Retaining a limited role in the peace process of the Arab- Israeli conflict as well as its inconsistency in practicing that role. Although the efforts to reactivate its role, and that the Soviet Union, and later Russia, formally, played the role of the second sponsor of the peace process, Russia’s role remained limited. That due to many considerations, among which is American hegemony over the Middle East peace process, Russia’s lack of the factors that could allow it to influence or practice pressure on the process. 4- Maintaining strong relations with Iraq. While Russia demands Iraq’s full compliance to Security Council resolutions, it supports lifting sanctions on Iraq and refuses any use of force against it. This position is based on Russia’s economic interests in Iraq. 5- Fostering unprecedented Russian-Iranian relations. Although the intensive American pressure, Putin shows great interest in activating relations with Iran and fostering closer and stronger cooperation particularly in technical and military fields. 6- Developing Russian relations with its classical allies in the region. Since Putin assumed the power in Russia, its relations with a number of its traditional allies such as Syria, Libya, Algeria, Egypt have developed considerably. Informed and acknowledgeable circles are afraid of aggressive Israeli attitudes under extreme rightists headed by Areil Sharon, who may commit mass massacres and forced transfer against Palestinians mounts to hundreds of thousands to Jordan. Those dangerous variables under anew divided or destroyed Iraq, would lead to US controlled regime, where Israel would achieve great influence and the Palestinian issue might pay a heavy price. The Iraqi other six neighboring countries may fall under American control and respond to its demands in decades to come. This might lead to regional instability, which its components and consequences are not yet clarified according to different scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]