Opportunities for low-carbon socioeconomic transition during the revitalization of Northeast China: Insights from Heilongjiang province.

The Strategies of Reviving the Old Industrial Bases provide opportunities for low-carbon transition in Northeast China, which is one of the earliest regions to industrialize and the largest rustbelt in China, but study on the impacts of its socioeconomic factors on CO 2 emissions is still in short, though it is essential for guiding the pathways to achieve low-carbon socioeconomic transition. We adopted the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to identify the main contributors to emissions increase in Heilongjiang province during 2002–2012, which is the heartland of Northeast revitalization. The results show that the increase in CO 2 emissions was mainly driven by growth in per-capita final demand, which generated 203.8 Mt (153.6%) upstream CO 2 emissions between 2002 and 2012. Changes in production structure and final demand structure had smaller impacts on CO 2 emissions increase (36.1 Mt and 27.0 Mt). However, the positive influences were largely overwhelmed by change in emission intensity, which avoided 135.4 Mt (−102%) CO 2 emissions. Therefore, appropriate measures related to energy structure optimization and efficiency improvement should be implemented. Especially, increasing the proportion of wind, solar and biomass energy in Heilongjiang, where renewable energy is abundant, would reduce the CO 2 emissions significantly. In addition, domestic export took the lead position in driving the CO 2 emissions in Heilongjiang, accounting for 37.6%–43.1% annual emissions between 2002 and 2012. Thus, some financial instrument, such as tax relief for less carbon intensive exports could be adopted to prompt upstream suppliers to decarbonize their production processes. Unlabelled Image • Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is used to identify the main contributors of CO 2 emissions increase during 2002-2012 in Heilongjiang province. • Growth in per-capita final demand was main driver for CO 2 emissions Increase. • The positive influences were largely overwhelmed by change in emission intensity, which avoided 135.4 Mt (-102%) CO 2 emissions. • Domestic export took the lead position in driving the CO2 emissions in Heilongjiang, accounting for 37.6%-43.1% annual emissions between 2002-2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]