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Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components Based on Risk Functions.
- Source :
-
IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery . Aug2019, Vol. 34 Issue 4, p1599-1607. 9p. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far, it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations, which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behavior of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, this paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95% confidence interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08858977
- Volume :
- 34
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 137726118
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2019.2913777