Interactive land use strategic assessment: An assessment tool for irrigation profitability under climate uncertainty.

• Decades with more drought years have a potential 25% reduction in average annual profit. • Greater risks to irrigation enterprises may come from large increases in variability of returns and large loss-making years. • Decadal average returns compared across climate change scenarios, consider long run viability under a changing climate. The Interactive Land use Strategic Assessment (ILSA) tool allows irrigators to examine and compare the likely effects of a range uncertain future climates on their individual enterprise along multiple time frames. The scientific basis of the tool is predicated on the influence of the prevailing climate conditions on expected levels of water allocations for irrigation activities under multiple climate scenarios. The model reports both annual returns and ten year average annual expected returns, given probability weighted allocations for a selected decade and climate scenario. Irrigators are able to adjust default farm operational parameters to suit their particular circumstances and examine the expected returns across multiple possible future water availability and market price years. A case study in the Loxton irrigation district of Southern Australia demonstrates the models capability examining the effects climate change, climatic variability, and water trade have on irrigation operations in a manner that is understandable to irrigators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]