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Periodically correlated models for short-term electricity load forecasting.
- Source :
-
Applied Mathematics & Computation . Jan2020, Vol. 364, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- During the last two decades, the model developed by Cancelo and Espasa (1991) has been used for predicting the Spanish electricity demand with good results. This paper proposes a new approach for estimating multiequation models that extends the previous work in different and important ways. Primarily, 24-h equations are assembled to form a periodic autoregressive-moving-average model, which significantly improves the short-term predictions. To reduce the computational problem, the full model is estimated in two steps, and a meticulous model of the nonlinear temperature effect is included using regression spline techniques. The method is currently being used by the Spanish Transmission System Operator (Red Eléctrica de España , REE) to make hourly forecasts of electricity demand from one to ten days ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00963003
- Volume :
- 364
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Applied Mathematics & Computation
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 138668373
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.124642