Modeling and Forecasting Meat Consumption per Capita in Turkey.

The objective of this study is to model the per capita consumption of red meat in Turkey employing various time series methods, evaluate the forecasting capability of the developed models, and address the variables that may affect the per capital consumption of red meat using the cointegration method on a term basis (short/long). The material of the study consists of the per capita consumption of red meat, total annual population, feed prices, gross domestic product and share of agriculture in gross domestic product in Turkey between 1993 and 2017. ARIMA (0,1,0) and Brown's exponential smoothing method were employed to model the time series data for per capita consumption of red meat, and Johansen method was used to address the cointegration relationship between per capita consumption of red meat and the other variables. The results of the modelling work suggest that per capita consumption of red meat has an increasing trend. Additionally, a statistically significant short-term relationship was found between per capita consumption of red meat and the other variables. Given the relationship between consumption of red meat and level of economic development, the projections concerning red meat consumption are important from the viewpoint of the policies that will be formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]