Estimation of tropical cyclone-induced direct economic loss with damage function from an elasticity perspective.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for devastating impact and mass losses. Consequently, it is essential to diagnose all components of risk in order to quantitatively estimate how the TC-induced direct economic losses (DELs) respond to the changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The probability distribution of TC-induced DEL records over the period 2000−2015 for the mainland of China appears to be a negative binomial. This paper quantifies the relationship between TC-induced DELs (L), maximum sustained wind (MSW), asset value (K) and per capita GDP (I) based on the economic concept of elasticity by the generalized linear model. The coefficients on three terms indicate that a doubling in MSW increases the DEL by 303%, a doubling in asset value exposure increases the DEL by 65%, while a doubling in per capita GDP leads to a 53% decrease in DEL. The results can be used for loss assessment of disasters that occur afterwards. The elasticity values suggest that continuing economic growth will take a heavy toll on TC-prone regions assuming no changes in mitigation and adaptation efforts. From another perspective, the results emphasize that human behavior matters to the formation of disasters and disaster risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]