Impacto del cambio climático en el rendimiento del maíz sembrado en suelo Ferralítico Rojo compactado.

In agricultural research and planning the development of simulation models has become a common practice that allows research or management to be directed towards the most critical points. AquaCrop is a simulation model designed by FAO for productivity analysis in response to available water; performs a balance of water in the soil and assesses, among others, the impact of climate change on crop yields. The objective of this work was to predict optimal sowing dates and corn yields in compacted Red Ferralitic soil, in the face of climate change scenarios with the use of AquaCrop. In the selected years of scenario A2 it was necessary to apply 10 irrigations, exceeding the total standard to be applied by more than 150 mm to achieve yields above 8 t ha-1. If deficit irrigation is applied, the reductions with respect to the potential will be an average of 26%, and the productivity of water at 2,40 kg m-3. If irrigation risks are eliminated, yields may decrease to 2,2 t ha-1. For the average year the optimum planting date is presented in the middle of December. While for the wet year yields of up to 10 t ha-1 are estimated if sown between November 20 and December 5th. The results show the model as a viable alternative to select optimal planting dates, reproduce the phenology and productivity of the crop under different management scenarios and climatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]